Modelling six sustainable development transformations in Australia and their accelerators, impediments, enablers, and interlinkages.

There is an urgent need to accelerate progress on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and recent research has identified six critical transformations. It is important to demonstrate how these transformations could be practically accelerated in a national context and what their combined effects would be. Here we bridge national systems modelling with transformation storylines to provide an analysis of a Six Transformations Pathway for Australia. We explore important policies to accelerate progress, synergies and trade-offs, and conditions that determine policy success. We find that implementing policy packages to accelerate each transformation would boost performance on the SDGs by 2030 (+23% above the baseline). Policymakers can maximize transformation synergies through investments in energy decarbonization, resilience, social protection, and sustainable food systems, while managing trade-offs for income and employment. To overcome resistance to transformations, ambitious policy action will need to be underpinned by technological, social, and political enabling conditions.

World scientists' warning: The behavioural crisis driving ecological overshoot.

Previously, anthropogenic ecological overshoot has been identified as a fundamental cause of the myriad symptoms we see around the globe today from biodiversity loss and ocean acidification to the disturbing rise in novel entities and climate change. In the present paper, we have examined this more deeply, and explore the behavioural drivers of overshoot, providing evidence that overshoot is itself a symptom of a deeper, more subversive modern crisis of human behaviour. We work to name and frame this crisis as 'the Human Behavioural Crisis' and propose the crisis be recognised globally as a critical intervention point for tackling ecological overshoot. We demonstrate how current interventions are largely physical, resource intensive, slow-moving and focused on addressing the symptoms of ecological overshoot (such as climate change) rather than the distal cause (maladaptive behaviours). We argue that even in the best-case scenarios, symptom-level interventions are unlikely to avoid catastrophe or achieve more than ephemeral progress. We explore three drivers of the behavioural crisis in depth: economic growth; marketing; and pronatalism. These three drivers directly impact the three 'levers' of overshoot: consumption, waste and population. We demonstrate how the maladaptive behaviours of overshoot stemming from these three drivers have been catalysed and perpetuated by the intentional exploitation of previously adaptive human impulses. In the final sections of this paper, we propose an interdisciplinary emergency response to the behavioural crisis by, amongst other things, the shifting of social norms relating to reproduction, consumption and waste. We seek to highlight a critical disconnect that is an ongoing societal gulf in communication between those that know such as scientists working within limits to growth, and those members of the citizenry, largely influenced by social scientists and industry, that must act.

Bridging planetary boundaries and spatial heterogeneity in a hybrid approach: A focus on Chinese provinces and industries.

Communicating the finiteness of the Earth system at sub-global scales is necessary to guide human activities within a safe operating space. Despite the numerous efforts committed to downscaling planetary boundaries (PBs) at multiple scales, neither top-down nor bottom-up approaches adequately account for the spatial heterogeneity and integrity of local and global natural systems. To overcome these shortcomings, we developed a hybrid approach that combines bottom-up aggregation and top-down adjustment for downscaling five crucial PBs (i.e., climate change, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles, freshwater use, and land use change) to Chinese provinces and industries. In addition to the widely applied equity principle, we further incorporated the eco-efficiency principle into the downscaling of PBs under the proposition that safeguarding finite PBs should be reconciled with the pursuit of maximizing human welfare. Environmental sustainability at multiple scales was subsequently assessed with the complementary use of environmental footprints and downscaled PBs. The results demonstrate that 1) China suffers from severe unsustainability because of the transgression of PBs for phosphorus and nitrogen cycles, carbon emissions, and cropland use; 2) provinces in West and North China perform worse than other provinces in terms of the eco-efficiency in manufacturing industries, including Electronic equipment, Textiles, and Wood processing and furnishing, rendering these industries that are more unsustainable; and 3) industries with varying eco-efficiencies account differently for the provincial PBs. Construction dominates the provincial shares of carbon PBs, whereas Agriculture and Food processing and tobacco contribute most to the other four PBs. Our findings suggest that improving eco-efficiency in most manufacturing industries is the key to saving resources, reducing emissions, and safeguarding local boundaries.

Planetary Boundaries for Forests and Their National Exceedance.

Achieving forest sustainability is a declared sustainable development goal (SDG 15). Measuring the safe operating space─planetary boundaries─of global forests is essential to determine global forest pressure and manage forests sustainably. Here, we quantify the forestry planetary boundary (FPB) and national forestry boundaries. Results show that, in 2015, the FPB was 7.1 billion m3 of forest stock increments. Global timber harvests account for 58.7% of the FPB. Timber harvests of 47 nations, mostly in Africa and Asia, have exceeded their national forestry boundaries. Their boundary-exceeding timber harvest is mainly driven by the final demand of developed nations (e.g., the United States and Japan) and emerging economies (e.g., India and China) through global supply chains. This study highlights the importance of the FPB in global forest management and trade-related policymaking. The findings can guide global and national forest harvesting activities and help promote international cooperation to mitigate global deforestation.

City footprints and SDGs provide untapped potential for assessing city sustainability.

Cities are recognised as central to determining the sustainability of human development. However, assessment concepts that are able to ascertain whether or not a city is sustainable are only just emerging. Here we review literature since the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were agreed in 2015 and identify three strands of scientific inquiry and practice in assessing city sustainability. We find that further integration is needed. SDG monitoring and assessment of cities should take advantage of both consumption-based (footprint) accounting and benchmarking against planetary boundaries and social thresholds in order to achieve greater relevance for designing sustainable cities and urban lifestyles.

The role of planetary boundaries in assessing absolute environmental sustainability across scales.

The idea of revisiting the biophysical limits of human life on planet Earth has gained renewed momentum in the Anthropocene. The planetary boundaries (PBs) framework has emerged as a strong guardrail concept, even though its capacity to inform the development of absolute sustainability assessments and realistic policies remains unclear. In this paper, we present a current synthesis of the development of absolute environmental sustainability (AES) indicators and assessments informed by PBs. We firstly explore how PBs have been considered in AES research at different scales. We then present a critique of how consensus could be reached in standardising and harmonising the share of globally and locally allocated safe operating spaces. We argue that PBs must be linked to human consumption as the main socio-economic driver and that planetary concerns can only be addressed through a holistic perspective that encompasses global tele-connections. Based on our findings, we provide recommendations for the future design of AES indicators and assessments informed by PBs.

Exploring consumption-based planetary boundary indicators: An absolute water footprinting assessment of Chinese provinces and cities.

The water planetary boundary (PB) has attracted wide academic attention, but empirical water footprint research that accommodates local biophysical boundaries remains scarce. Here we develop two novel quantitative footprint indicators, the water exceedance footprint and the surplus water footprint. The first measures the amount of excessive water withdrawal (exceeded amount of water withdrawn against local water PBs) and the latter evaluates the potential of surplus water that can be sustainably utilised (amount of surplus water available within local water PBs). We quantify the extent to which demand for goods and services in Chinese provinces and cities are driving excessive withdrawal of local and global water resources. We investigate both territorial and consumption-based water withdrawal deficit and surplus against local water withdrawal PBs. We also trace how PB-exceeded water and surplus water are appropriated for producing certain commodities. In 2015, China's domestic water exceedance reaches 101 km3 while the total water exceedance footprint is 92 km3. We find that 47% of domestic excessive water withdrawal is associated with interprovincial trade. Exceeded water transfers were dominated by agricultural trade from the drier North to the wetter South. A revised virtual water trade network informed by exceedance and surplus water footprint metrics could help address sustainability concerns that arise from the trade of water-intensive commodities. Our findings highlight that policy targets need to accommodate PB exceedance of both direct and virtual water use.

Global socio-economic losses and environmental gains from the Coronavirus pandemic.

On 3 April 2020, the Director-General of the WHO stated: "[COVID-19] is much more than a health crisis. We are all aware of the profound social and economic consequences of the pandemic (WHO, 2020)". Such consequences are the result of counter-measures such as lockdowns, and world-wide reductions in production and consumption, amplified by cascading impacts through international supply chains. Using a global multi-regional macro-economic model, we capture direct and indirect spill-over effects in terms of social and economic losses, as well as environmental effects of the pandemic. Based on information as of May 2020, we show that global consumption losses amount to 3.8$tr, triggering significant job (147 million full-time equivalent) and income (2.1$tr) losses. Global atmospheric emissions are reduced by 2.5Gt of greenhouse gases, 0.6Mt of PM2.5, and 5.1Mt of SO2 and NOx. While Asia, Europe and the USA have been the most directly impacted regions, and transport and tourism the immediately hit sectors, the indirect effects transmitted along international supply chains are being felt across the entire world economy. These ripple effects highlight the intrinsic link between socio-economic and environmental dimensions, and emphasise the challenge of addressing unsustainable global patterns. How humanity reacts to this crisis will define the post-pandemic world.

Scientists' warning on affluence.

For over half a century, worldwide growth in affluence has continuously increased resource use and pollutant emissions far more rapidly than these have been reduced through better technology. The affluent citizens of the world are responsible for most environmental impacts and are central to any future prospect of retreating to safer environmental conditions. We summarise the evidence and present possible solution approaches. Any transition towards sustainability can only be effective if far-reaching lifestyle changes complement technological advancements. However, existing societies, economies and cultures incite consumption expansion and the structural imperative for growth in competitive market economies inhibits necessary societal change.

Saving less in China facilitates global CO2 mitigation.

Transforming China's economic growth pattern from investment-driven to consumption-driven can significantly change global CO2 emissions. This study is the first to analyse the impacts of changes in China's saving rates on global CO2 emissions both theoretically and empirically. Here, we show that the increase in the saving rates of Chinese regions has led to increments of global industrial CO2 emissions by 189 million tonnes (Mt) during 2007-2012. A 15-percentage-point decrease in the saving rate of China can lower global CO2 emissions by 186 Mt, or 0.7% of global industrial CO2 emissions. Greener consumption in China can lead to a further 14% reduction in global industrial CO2 emissions. In particular, decreasing the saving rate of Shandong has the most massive potential for global CO2 reductions, while that of Inner Mongolia has adverse effects. Removing economic frictions to allow the production system to fit China's increased consumption can facilitate global CO2 mitigation.

Enabling Full Supply Chain Corporate Responsibility: Scope 3 Emissions Targets for Ambitious Climate Change Mitigation.

There is building consensus that nonstate actors have the potential to drive more ambitious action toward climate targets than governments, thus driving the necessary transition to ensure that humanity remains within a safe operating space. These bottom-up mitigation activities, however, require individual targets on both direct and indirect (upstream) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in order to reconcile trade-offs between global and local sustainability goals. Here we use a scenario-driven approach based on a global multiregional input-output (GMRIO) model to develop scope 3 emission reduction targets for individual economic sectors, comparable across countries and geographies. Under an ambitious carbon mitigation scenario for 2035 (that follows a trajectory of 1.75 °C total warming by 2100), global upstream scope 3 emission intensities need to be reduced by an additional 54% compared to a baseline scenario with reference technology. On a sectoral basis, this is equivalent to a 58-67% reduction in energy, transport, and materials, a 50-52% reduction in manufacturing, services, and buildings, and a 39% reduction in agriculture, forestry, and other land use. By aligning indirect supply chain targets with ambitious carbon mitigation scenarios, our approach can be used by nonstate actors to set actionable scope 3 targets and to build climate-compatible business models.

Supply-side carbon accounting and mitigation analysis for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in China.

Cities play an important role in controlling climate change. Previous 'city-scale studies' have investigated consumption-based emission accounting for demand-side mitigation analysis. However, to date very few studies have presented income-based emissions accounting for supply-side mitigation strategies at the level of an urban agglomeration. To fill this gap, this research begins by accounting for the income-based carbon footprint of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration. The 14 cities that make up the BTH region were grouped into 4 types in order to analyse the emission patterns of each and to identify both labour-intensive and carbon-efficient sectors. The results from this analysis are presented in a number of heatmaps, which show emission patterns, labour-capital ratios and carbon efficiencies. The industry relocation among the 14 cities is then discussed with regards to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Coordinated Development Strategy. The results indicate that the service sector of Beijing, several mining sectors of resource-oriented cities and the electricity production for all of the cities are the most carbon-intensive sectors from an income-based perspective; the labour-intensive sectors are typically carbon-efficient, and the combination of supply-side carbon emissions, carbon efficiency and labour-to-capital ratio helps identify the key sectors for providing policy-makers the direction of industrial adjustment and relocation.

Review on City-Level Carbon Accounting.

Carbon accounting results for the same city can differ due to differences in protocols, methods, and data sources. A critical review of these differences and the connection among them can help to bridge our knowledge between university-based researchers and protocol practitioners in accounting and taking further mitigation actions. The purpose of this study is to provide a review of published research and protocols related to city carbon accounting, paying attention to both their science and practical actions. To begin with, the most cited articles in this field are identified and analyzed by employing a citation network analysis to illustrate the development of city-level carbon accounting from three perspectives. We also reveal the relationship between research methods and accounting protocols. Furthermore, a timeline of relevant organizations, protocols, and projects is provided to demonstrate the applications of city carbon accounting in practice. The citation networks indicate that the field is dominated by pure-geographic production-based and community infrastructure-based accounting; however, emerging models that combine economic system analysis from a consumption-based perspective are leading to new trends in the field. The emissions accounted for by various research methods consist essentially of the scope 1-3, as defined in accounting protocols. The latest accounting protocols include consumption-based accounting, but most cities still limit their accounting and reporting from pure-geographic production-based and community infrastructure-based perspectives. In conclusion, we argue that protocol practitioners require support in conducting carbon accounting, so as to explore the potential in mitigation and adaptation from a number of perspectives. This should also be a priority for future studies.

Consumption-based greenhouse gas emissions accounting with capital stock change highlights dynamics of fast-developing countries.

Traditional consumption-based greenhouse gas emissions accounting attributed the gap between consumption-based and production-based emissions to international trade. Yet few attempts have analyzed the temporal deviation between current emissions and future consumption, which can be explained through changes in capital stock. Here we develop a dynamic model to incorporate capital stock change in consumption-based accounting. The new model is applied using global data for 1995-2009. Our results show that global emissions embodied in consumption determined by the new model are smaller than those obtained from the traditional model. The emissions embodied in global capital stock increased steadily during the period. However, capital plays very different roles in shaping consumption-based emissions for economies with different development characteristics. As a result, the dynamic model yields similar consumption-based emissions estimation for many developed countries comparing with the traditional model, but it highlights the dynamics of fast-developing countries.

The material footprint of nations.

Metrics on resource productivity currently used by governments suggest that some developed countries have increased the use of natural resources at a slower rate than economic growth (relative decoupling) or have even managed to use fewer resources over time (absolute decoupling). Using the material footprint (MF), a consumption-based indicator of resource use, we find the contrary: Achievements in decoupling in advanced economies are smaller than reported or even nonexistent. We present a time series analysis of the MF of 186 countries and identify material flows associated with global production and consumption networks in unprecedented specificity. By calculating raw material equivalents of international trade, we demonstrate that countries' use of nondomestic resources is, on average, about threefold larger than the physical quantity of traded goods. As wealth grows, countries tend to reduce their domestic portion of materials extraction through international trade, whereas the overall mass of material consumption generally increases. With every 10% increase in gross domestic product, the average national MF increases by 6%. Our findings call into question the sole use of current resource productivity indicators in policy making and suggest the necessity of an additional focus on consumption-based accounting for natural resource use.

Humanity's unsustainable environmental footprint.

Within the context of Earth's limited natural resources and assimilation capacity, the current environmental footprint of humankind is not sustainable. Assessing land, water, energy, material, and other footprints along supply chains is paramount in understanding the sustainability, efficiency, and equity of resource use from the perspective of producers, consumers, and government. We review current footprints and relate those to maximum sustainable levels, highlighting the need for future work on combining footprints, assessing trade-offs between them, improving computational techniques, estimating maximum sustainable footprint levels, and benchmarking efficiency of resource use. Ultimately, major transformative changes in the global economy are necessary to reduce humanity's environmental footprint to sustainable levels.

Compiling and using input-output frameworks through collaborative virtual laboratories.

Compiling, deploying and utilising large-scale databases that integrate environmental and economic data have traditionally been labour- and cost-intensive processes, hindered by the large amount of disparate and misaligned data that must be collected and harmonised. The Australian Industrial Ecology Virtual Laboratory (IELab) is a novel, collaborative approach to compiling large-scale environmentally extended multi-region input-output (MRIO) models. The utility of the IELab product is greatly enhanced by avoiding the need to lock in an MRIO structure at the time the MRIO system is developed. The IELab advances the idea of the "mother-daughter" construction principle, whereby a regionally and sectorally very detailed "mother" table is set up, from which "daughter" tables are derived to suit specific research questions. By introducing a third tier - the "root classification" - IELab users are able to define their own mother-MRIO configuration, at no additional cost in terms of data handling. Customised mother-MRIOs can then be built, which maximise disaggregation in aspects that are useful to a family of research questions. The second innovation in the IELab system is to provide a highly automated collaborative research platform in a cloud-computing environment, greatly expediting workflows and making these computational benefits accessible to all users. Combining these two aspects realises many benefits. The collaborative nature of the IELab development project allows significant savings in resources. Timely deployment is possible by coupling automation procedures with the comprehensive input from multiple teams. User-defined MRIO tables, coupled with high performance computing, mean that MRIO analysis will be useful and accessible for a great many more research applications than would otherwise be possible. By ensuring that a common set of analytical tools such as for hybrid life-cycle assessment is adopted, the IELab will facilitate the harmonisation of fragmented, dispersed and misaligned raw data for the benefit of all interested parties.

Greenhouse gas emissions and the Australian diet--comparing dietary recommendations with average intakes.

Nutrition guidelines now consider the environmental impact of food choices as well as maintaining health. In Australia there is insufficient data quantifying the environmental impact of diets, limiting our ability to make evidence-based recommendations. This paper used an environmentally extended input-output model of the economy to estimate greenhouse gas emissions (GHGe) for different food sectors. These data were augmented with food intake estimates from the 1995 Australian National Nutrition Survey. The GHGe of the average Australian diet was 14.5 kg carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) per person per day. The recommended dietary patterns in the Australian Dietary Guidelines are nutrient rich and have the lowest GHGe (~25% lower than the average diet). Food groups that made the greatest contribution to diet-related GHGe were red meat (8.0 kg CO2e per person per day) and energy-dense, nutrient poor "non-core" foods (3.9 kg CO2e). Non-core foods accounted for 27% of the diet-related emissions. A reduction in non-core foods and consuming the recommended serves of core foods are strategies which may achieve benefits for population health and the environment. These data will enable comparisons between changes in dietary intake and GHGe over time, and provide a reference point for diets which meet population nutrient requirements and have the lowest GHGe.

Application of hybrid life cycle approaches to emerging energy technologies--the case of wind power in the UK.

Future energy technologies will be key for a successful reduction of man-made greenhouse gas emissions. With demand for electricity projected to increase significantly in the future, climate policy goals of limiting the effects of global atmospheric warming can only be achieved if power generation processes are profoundly decarbonized. Energy models, however, have ignored the fact that upstream emissions are associated with any energy technology. In this work we explore methodological options for hybrid life cycle assessment (hybrid LCA) to account for the indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of energy technologies using wind power generation in the UK as a case study. We develop and compare two different approaches using a multiregion input-output modeling framework - Input-Output-based Hybrid LCA and Integrated Hybrid LCA. The latter utilizes the full-sized Ecoinvent process database. We discuss significance and reliability of the results and suggest ways to improve the accuracy of the calculations. The comparison of hybrid LCA methodologies provides valuable insight into the availability and robustness of approaches for informing energy and environmental policy.