Dramatic response to climate change in the Southwest: Robert Whittaker's 1963 Arizona Mountain plant transect revisited.

Models analyzing how Southwestern plant communities will respond to climate change predict that increases in temperature will lead to upward elevational shifts of montane species. We tested this hypothesis by reexamining Robert Whittaker's 1963 plant transect in the Santa Catalina Mountains of southern Arizona, finding that this process is already well underway. Our survey, five decades after Whittaker's, reveals large changes in the elevational ranges of common montane plants, while mean annual rainfall has decreased over the past 20 years, and mean annual temperatures increased 0.25°C/decade from 1949 to 2011 in the Tucson Basin. Although elevational changes in species are individualistic, significant overall upward movement of the lower elevation boundaries, and elevational range contractions, have occurred. This is the first documentation of significant upward shifts of lower elevation range boundaries in Southwestern montane plant species over decadal time, confirming that previous hypotheses are correct in their prediction that mountain communities in the Southwest will be strongly impacted by warming, and that the Southwest is already experiencing a rapid vegetation change.

Introduction to the Arizona Sky Island Arthropod Project (ASAP): Systematics, Biogeography, Ecology, and Population Genetics of Arthropods of the Madrean Sky Islands.

The Arizona Sky Island Arthropod Project (ASAP) is a new multi-disciplinary research program at the University of Arizona that combines systematics, biogeography, ecology, and population genetics to study origins and patterns of arthropod diversity along elevation gradients and among mountain ranges in the Madrean Sky Island Region. Arthropods represent taxonomically and ecologically diverse organisms that drive key ecosystem processes in this mountain archipelago. Using data from museum specimens and specimens we obtain during long-term collecting and monitoring programs, ASAP will document arthropod species across Arizona's Sky Islands to address a number of fundamental questions about arthropods of this region. Baseline data will be used to determine climatic boundaries for target species, which will then be integrated with climatological models to predict future changes in arthropod communities and distributions in the wake of rapid climate change. ASAP also makes use of the natural laboratory provided by the Sky Islands to investigate ecological and genetic factors that influence diversification and patterns of community assembly. Here, we introduce the project, outline overarching goals, and describe preliminary data from the first year of sampling ground-dwelling beetles and ants in the Santa Catalina Mountains.