Responsible agriculture must adapt to the wetland character of mid-latitude peatlands.

Drained, lowland agricultural peatlands are greenhouse gas (GHG) emission hotspots and a large but vulnerable store of irrecoverable carbon. They exhibit soil loss rates of ~2.0 cm yr-1 and are estimated to account for 32% of global cropland emissions while producing only 1.1% of crop kilocalories. Carbon dioxide emissions account for >80% of their terrestrial GHG emissions and are largely controlled by water table depth. Reducing drainage depths is, therefore, essential for responsible peatland management. Peatland restoration can substantially reduce emissions. However, this may conflict with societal needs to maintain productive use, to protect food security and livelihoods. Wetland agriculture strategies will, therefore, be required to adapt agriculture to the wetland character of peatlands, and balance GHG mitigation against productivity, where halting emissions is not immediately possible. Paludiculture may substantially reduce GHG emissions but will not always be viable in the current economic landscape. Reduced drainage intensity systems may deliver partial reductions in the rate of emissions, with smaller modifications to existing systems. These compromise systems may face fewer hurdles to adoption and minimize environmental harm until societal conditions favour strategies that can halt emissions. Wetland agriculture will face agronomic, socio-economic and water management challenges, and careful implementation will be required. Diversity of values and priorities among stakeholders creates the potential for conflict. Successful implementation will require participatory research approaches and co-creation of workable solutions. Policymakers, private sector funders and researchers have key roles to play but adoption risks would fall predominantly on land managers. Development of a robust wetland agriculture paradigm is essential to deliver resilient production systems and wider environmental benefits. The challenge of responsible use presents an opportunity to rethink peatland management and create thriving, innovative and green wetland landscapes for everyone's future benefit, while making a vital contribution to global climate change mitigation.

Modelled responses of the Kalahari Desert to 21st century climate and land use change.

Drylands are home to over 2 billion people globally, many of whom use the land for agricultural and pastoral activities. These vulnerable livelihoods could be disrupted if desert dunefields become more active in response to climate and land use change. Despite increasing knowledge about the role that wind, moisture availability and vegetation cover play in shaping dryland landscapes, relatively little is known about how drylands might respond to climatic and population pressures over the 21st century. Here we use a newly developed numerical model, which fully couples vegetation and sediment-transport dynamics, to simulate potential landscape evolution at three locations in the Kalahari Desert, under two future emissions scenarios: stabilising (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5). Our simulations suggest that whilst our study sites will experience some climatically-induced landscape change, the impacts of climate change alone on vegetation cover and sediment mobility may be relatively small. However, human activity could strongly exacerbate certain landscape trajectories. Fire frequency has a primary impact on vegetation cover, and, together with grazing pressure, plays a significant role in modulating shrub encroachment and ensuing land degradation processes. Appropriate land management strategies must be implemented across the Kalahari Desert to avoid severe environmental and socio-economic consequences over the coming decades.

Remobilization of southern African desert dune systems by twenty-first century global warming.

Although desert dunes cover 5 per cent of the global land surface and 30 per cent of Africa, the potential impacts of twenty-first century global warming on desert dune systems are not well understood. The inactive Sahel and southern African dune systems, which developed in multiple arid phases since the last interglacial period, are used today by pastoral and agricultural systems that could be disrupted if climate change alters twenty-first century dune dynamics. Empirical data and model simulations have established that the interplay between dune surface erodibility (determined by vegetation cover and moisture availability) and atmospheric erosivity (determined by wind energy) is critical for dunefield dynamics. This relationship between erodibility and erosivity is susceptible to climate-change impacts. Here we use simulations with three global climate models and a range of emission scenarios to assess the potential future activity of three Kalahari dunefields. We determine monthly values of dune activity by modifying and improving an established dune mobility index so that it can account for global climate model data outputs. We find that, regardless of the emission scenario used, significantly enhanced dune activity is simulated in the southern dunefield by 2039, and in the eastern and northern dunefields by 2069. By 2099 all dunefields are highly dynamic, from northern South Africa to Angola and Zambia. Our results suggest that dunefields are likely to be reactivated (the sand will become significantly exposed and move) as a consequence of twenty-first century climate warming.