The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018.

Global aviation operations contribute to anthropogenic climate change via a complex set of processes that lead to a net surface warming. Of importance are aviation emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), water vapor, soot and sulfate aerosols, and increased cloudiness due to contrail formation. Aviation grew strongly over the past decades (1960-2018) in terms of activity, with revenue passenger kilometers increasing from 109 to 8269 billion km yr-1, and in terms of climate change impacts, with CO2 emissions increasing by a factor of 6.8 to 1034 Tg CO2 yr-1. Over the period 2013-2018, the growth rates in both terms show a marked increase. Here, we present a new comprehensive and quantitative approach for evaluating aviation climate forcing terms. Both radiative forcing (RF) and effective radiative forcing (ERF) terms and their sums are calculated for the years 2000-2018. Contrail cirrus, consisting of linear contrails and the cirrus cloudiness arising from them, yields the largest positive net (warming) ERF term followed by CO2 and NOx emissions. The formation and emission of sulfate aerosol yields a negative (cooling) term. The mean contrail cirrus ERF/RF ratio of 0.42 indicates that contrail cirrus is less effective in surface warming than other terms. For 2018 the net aviation ERF is +100.9 milliwatts (mW) m-2 (5-95% likelihood range of (55, 145)) with major contributions from contrail cirrus (57.4 mW m-2), CO2 (34.3 mW m-2), and NOx (17.5 mW m-2). Non-CO2 terms sum to yield a net positive (warming) ERF that accounts for more than half (66%) of the aviation net ERF in 2018. Using normalization to aviation fuel use, the contribution of global aviation in 2011 was calculated to be 3.5 (4.0, 3.4) % of the net anthropogenic ERF of 2290 (1130, 3330) mW m-2. Uncertainty distributions (5%, 95%) show that non-CO2 forcing terms contribute about 8 times more than CO2 to the uncertainty in the aviation net ERF in 2018. The best estimates of the ERFs from aviation aerosol-cloud interactions for soot and sulfate remain undetermined. CO2-warming-equivalent emissions based on global warming potentials (GWP* method) indicate that aviation emissions are currently warming the climate at approximately three times the rate of that associated with aviation CO2 emissions alone. CO2 and NOx aviation emissions and cloud effects remain a continued focus of anthropogenic climate change research and policy discussions.

Representation and measurement of stereoscopic volumes.

Binocular disparity information provides the human visual system with a basis for the compelling perception of both three-dimensional (3-D) object shape, and of the 3-D space between objects. However, while an extensive body of research exists into the perception of disparity-defined surface shape, relatively little research has been conducted on the associated perception of disparity-defined volume. In this paper, we report three experiments that examine this aspect of binocular vision. Participants were asked to make judgments about the 3-D spread, location-in-depth, and 3-D shape of stereoscopic volumes. Volumes were comprised of random dots with disparities drawn from a uniform distribution, a Gaussian distribution, or a combination of both. These results were compared to two models: One of these made judgments about stereoscopic volumes using information about the distributions of disparities in each stimulus, while the other was limited to only maximum and minimum disparity information. Psychophysical results were best accounted for by the maximum-minimum decision rule model. This suggests that, although binocular vision affords a compelling phenomenal sense of 3-D volume, when required to make judgments about such volumes, the visual system's default strategies make only limited use of available binocular disparity signals.

Second cancers and late mortality in Australian children treated by allogeneic HSCT for haematological malignancy.

We examined risk of second cancer and late mortality in a population-based Australian cohort of 717 pediatric allogeneic stem cell transplant (HSCT) recipients treated for a malignant disease during 1982-2007. Record linkage with population-based death and cancer registries identified 17 second cancers at a median of 7.9 years post HSCT; thyroid cancer being the most common malignancy (n=8). The cumulative incidence of second cancer was 8.7% at follow-up, and second cancers occurred 20 times more often than in the general population (standardised incidence ratio 20.3, 95% confidence interval (CI)=12.6-32.7). Transplantation using radiation-based conditioning regimens was associated with increased second cancer risk. A total of 367 patients survived for at least 2 years post HSCT and of these 44 (12%) died at a median of 3.1 years after HSCT. Relapse was the most common cause of late mortality (n=32). The cumulative incidence of late mortality was 14.7%. The observed rate of late mortality was 36 times greater than in the matched general population (standardised mortality ratio 35.9, 95% CI=26.7-48.3). Recipients who relapsed or who had radiation-based conditioning regimens were at higher risk of late mortality. Second cancers and late mortality continue to be a risk for pediatric patients undergoing HSCT, and these results highlight the need for effective screening and survivorship programs.

Second cancer risk in adults receiving autologous haematopoietic SCT for cancer: a population-based cohort study.

Population-based evidence on second cancer risk following autologous haematopoietic SCT (HCT) is lacking. We quantified second cancer risk for a national, population-based cohort of adult Australians receiving autologous HCT for cancer and notified to the Australasian Bone Marrow Transplant Recipient Registry 1992-2007 (n=7765). Cancer diagnoses and deaths were ascertained by linkage with the Australian Cancer Database and National Death Index. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated and Cox regression models were used to estimate within-cohort risk factors treating death as a competing risk. During a median 2.5 years follow-up, second cancer risk was modestly increased compared with the general population (SIR 1.4, 95% confidence interval 1.2-1.6); significantly elevated risk was also observed for AML/myelodysplastic syndrome (SIR=20.6), melanoma (SIR=2.6) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR=3.3). Recipients at elevated risk of any second cancer included males, and those transplanted at a younger age, in an earlier HCT era, or for lymphoma or testicular cancer. Male sex, older age (>45 years) and history of relapse after HCT predicted melanoma risk. Transplantation for Hodgkin lymphoma and older age were associated with lung cancer risk. Second malignancies are an important late effect and these results inform and emphasize the need for cancer surveillance in autologous HCT survivors.

Fast and accurate boundary variation method for multilayered diffraction optics.

A boundary variation method for the forward modeling of multilayered diffraction optics is presented. The approach permits fast and high-order accurate modeling of periodic transmission optics consisting of an arbitrary number of materials and interfaces of general shape subject to plane-wave illumination or, by solving a sequence of problems, illumination by beams. The key elements of the algorithm are discussed, as are details of an efficient implementation. Numerous comparisons with exact solutions and highly accurate direct solutions confirm the accuracy, the versatility, and the efficiency of the proposed method.

Genetically distinct populations of the dinoflagellate Peridinium limbatum in neighboring Northern Wisconsin lakes.

The extent to which free-living microorganisms exist in geographically isolated, genetically distinct populations is a subject of continuing debate. Some authorities contend that many microorganisms have cosmopolitan distributions, while others provide evidence that more limited geographical distribution of genetically distinct populations can occur. We report the occurrence of two morphologically similar, but genetically distinct, populations of the microbial eukaryote Peridinium limbatum (Stokes) Lemmermann from neighboring Northern Wisconsin freshwater bodies. Five strains of P. limbatum were cultured by single-cell isolation from both Crystal Lake and Crystal Bog (Oneida Co., WI). Genetic variation between the two populations encompassed 8.9% (mean of 35.4 of 397 nucleotides) of the nuclear ribosomal DNA internal transcribed spacer (ITS1 and ITS2) region. In contrast, 0.5% (mean of 2.25 of 397 nucleotides) variation was observed within the Crystal Lake population and 0.3% (mean of 1.21 of 397 nucleotides), within the Crystal Bog population. This difference between the two populations was highly statistically significant (p-value << 0.001). The extent of genetic variation between the two P. limbatum populations was greater than that reported in the literature for some morphologically distinguishable microalgal species, suggesting the occurrence of cryptic sister species. On the other hand, hybrid sequences obtained from one of the Crystal Lake strains suggest that the two populations may still be members of a single sexually compatible biological species. Our data suggest that the two neighboring P. limbatum populations may be diverging genetically under conditions of limited gene flow, suggesting a mechanism for the origin of geographically isolated, genetically distinct populations of microbial eukaryotes.

Efficacy of a targeted, oral penicillin-based yaws control program among children living in rural South America.

Yaws is endemic in rural Guyana. An observational study was conducted to determine the efficacy of oral penicillin V therapy in treating skin lesions of yaws in children. In 1999, inhabitants of 7 rural villages near Bartica, Guyana, were screened for skin lesions of yaws. Cases were confirmed by serological testing. A control program was implemented in 2000: children < or =14 years old were screened, and those with active lesions were treated with oral penicillin V for 7-10 days. In 2001, children were rescreened and active cases were treated. Prevalence of yaws skin lesions fell from 5.1% (52 of 1020 children screened in 2000) to 1.6% (8 of 516 in 2001), a 71% drop. Sixteen (94%) of 17 children treated in 2000 and reassessed in 2001 had complete resolution of lesions. A targeted, oral penicillin-based treatment regimen can successfully treat dermatologic yaws in individual children and can decrease the prevalence of skin yaws in a community in which it is endemic. This information may aid in the implementation of additional control efforts.

Risk of multiple birth associated with in vitro fertilization using donor eggs.

Multiple birth, which is associated with adverse fetal, infant, and maternal outcomes, is increasingly related to the use of in vitro fertilization (IVF). Among women undergoing IVF who use their own eggs, greater maternal age is associated with decreased risk of multiple birth; using donor eggs from younger women may negate this age effect. Data from 6,936 IVF procedures performed in the United States in 1996-1997 on women aged 35-54 years who used donor eggs were analyzed to assess the effect of maternal age, number of embryos transferred, and cryopreservation of extra, nontransferred embryos (an indicator of higher embryo quality) on risk of multiple birth. Greater maternal age did not decrease multiple-birth risk. Rates of multiple birth were related to number of embryos transferred and whether extra embryos had been cryopreserved, and they were high compared with those of IVF patients the same age who had used their own eggs. Among women who had extra embryos cryopreserved, transferring more than two embryos increased multiple-birth risk, with no corresponding increase in the chance for a livebirth. These results highlight the need to consider the age of the donor and embryo quality when making embryo transfer decisions involving use of donor eggs.

The prevalence of socioeconomic and behavioral characteristics and their impact on very low birth weight in black and white infants in Georgia.

OBJECTIVES: We examined possible reasons for the disparity in the rate of very low birth weight (VLBW) delivery (<1500 g) in the United States between black women and white women. METHODS: Using data from a population-based, case-control study of very low birth weight infants, we compared the prevalence of sociodemographic and behavioral characteristics between black and white mothers of normal birth weight infants; the difference in these characteristics between case and control mothers; and, using logistic regression, calculated odds ratios for VLBW for black versus white infants, adjusting for these characteristics. RESULTS: Although black women were disadvantaged on every variable examined, they did not report more behavioral risk factors. Among white women, several traditional risk factors were associated with VLBW, while among black women, only marital status, cigarette smoking, and vitamin nonuse were associated with VLBW delivery. Controlling for the socioeconomic and behavioral factors reduced the odds ratio for VLBW delivery among black mothers from 3.7 to 3.3. CONCLUSIONS: Racial disparity in socioeconomic status may be greater than our current ability to adjust for it in epidemiologic studies. The fact that traditional risk factors were not associated with VLBW delivery in black women may be due to the very high prevalence of these risk factors among black women or to different or additional risks or stresses experienced by black women.

Secretion of hepatocyte apoB is inhibited by the flavonoids, naringenin and hesperetin, via reduced activity and expression of ACAT2 and MTP.

The citrus flavonoids, naringenin and hesperetin, lower plasma cholesterol in vivo. However, the underlying mechanisms are not fully understood. The ability of these flavonoids to modulate apolipoprotein B (apoB) secretion and cellular cholesterol homeostasis was determined in the human hepatoma cell line, HepG2. apoB accumulation in the media decreased in a dose-dependent manner following 24-h incubations with naringenin (up to 82%, P < 0.00001) or hesperetin (up to 74%, P < 0.002). Decreased apoB secretion was associated with reduced cellular cholesteryl ester mass. Cholesterol esterification was decreased, dose-dependently, up to 84% (P < 0.0001) at flavonoid concentrations of 200 microM. Neither flavonoid demonstrated selective inhibition of either form of acyl CoA:cholesterol acyltransferase (ACAT) as determined using CHO cells stably transfected with either ACAT1 or ACAT2. However, in HepG2 cells, ACAT2 mRNA was selectively decreased (- 50%, P < 0.001) by both flavonoids, whereas ACAT1 mRNA was unaffected. In addition, naringenin and hesperetin decreased both the activity (- 20% to - 40%, P < 0.00004) and expression (- 30% to - 40%, P < 0.02) of microsomal triglyceride transfer protein (MTP). Both flavonoids caused a 5- to 7-fold increase (P < 0.02) in low density lipoprotein (LDL) receptor mRNA, which resulted in a 1.5- to 2-fold increase in uptake and degradation of (125)I-LDL. We conclude that both naringenin and hesperetin decrease the availability of lipids for assembly of apoB-containing lipoproteins, an effect mediated by 1) reduced activities of ACAT1 and ACAT2, 2) a selective decrease in ACAT2 expression, and 3) reduced MTP activity. Together with an enhanced expression of the LDL receptor, these mechanisms may explain the hypocholesterolemic properties of the citrus flavonoids.

Pregnancy after tubal sterilization with silicone rubber band and spring clip application.

OBJECTIVE: To determine risk factors for pregnancy after tubal sterilization with silicone rubber bands or spring clips. METHODS: A total of 3329 women sterilized using silicone rubber bands and 1595 women sterilized using spring clips were followed for up to 14 years as part of a prospective cohort study conducted in medical centers in nine US cities. We assessed the risk of pregnancy by cumulative life-table probabilities and proportional hazards analysis. RESULTS: The risk of pregnancy for women who had silicone rubber band application differed by location of band application and study site. The 10-year cumulative probabilities of pregnancy varied from a low of 0.0 per 1000 procedures at one study site to a high of 42.5 per 1000 procedures in the four combined sites in which fewer than 100 procedures per site were performed. The risk of pregnancy for women who had spring clip application varied by location of clip application, study site, race or ethnicity, tubal disease, and history of abdominal or pelvic surgery. The probabilities across study sites ranged from 7.1 per 1000 procedures at 10 years to 78.0 per 1000 procedures at 5 years (follow-up was limited to 5 years at that site). CONCLUSION: The 10-year cumulative probability of pregnancy after silicone rubber band and spring clip application is low but varies substantially by both clinical and demographic characteristics.

The effects of blur and size on monocular and stereoscopic localization.

Monocular localization of non-abutting stimuli and stereoscopic localization of the same second-order targets are performed with the same precision (Wilcox, L.M. & Hess, R.F. (1996) Is the site of non-linear filtering in stereopsis before or after binocular combination? Vision Research, 36, 391-399). Further, both tasks show a similar dependence on the scale of the stimulus. Since prior studies used Gaussian-enveloped stimuli, modifications of stimulus scale produced concurrent changes in edge blur. The experiments reported here assess the relative contributions of size and blur to the observed dependence on envelope scale for both monocular localization and stereoacuity. Stereoacuity for first-order targets was found to be an order of magnitude better than stereoacuity for second-order targets and monocular acuity for both first- and second-order targets. Further, while first-order stereopsis was found to depend solely on blur, second-order stereoacuity and monocular acuity were affected by both size and blur. These results suggest that while stereoacuity for first-order stimuli may be determined by a correlative process limited by early additive noise, stereoacuity for second-order stimuli and monocular acuity for non-abutting targets are more likely limited by stimulus-dependent spatial subsampling.

The risk of menstrual abnormalities after tubal sterilization. U.S. Collaborative Review of Sterilization Working Group.

BACKGROUND: The existence of a post-tubal-ligation syndrome of menstrual abnormalities has been debated for decades. We used data from the U.S. Collaborative Review of Sterilization to determine whether the likelihood of persistent menstrual abnormalities was greater among women who had undergone tubal sterilization than among women who had not. METHODS: A total of 9514 women who underwent tubal sterilization and 573 women whose partners underwent vasectomy were followed in a multicenter, prospective cohort study for up to five years by means of annual telephone interviews. All women were asked the same questions about six characteristics of their menstrual cycles in the presterilization and follow-up interviews. Multiple logistic-regression analysis was used to assess the risk of persistent menstrual changes. RESULTS: The women who had undergone sterilization were no more likely than those who had not undergone the procedure to report persistent changes in intermenstrual bleeding or the length of the menstrual cycle. They were more likely to have decreases in the number of days of bleeding (odds ratio, 2.4; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.1 to 5.2), the amount of bleeding (odds ratio, 1.5; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.1 to 2.0), and menstrual pain (odds ratio, 1.3; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.0 to 1.8) and to have an increase in cycle irregularity (odds ratio, 1.6; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.1 to 2.3). Among women who had had very heavy bleeding at base line, women who had undergone sterilization were more likely than women who had not undergone the procedure to report decreased bleeding (45 percent vs. 33 percent, P=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Women who have undergone tubal sterilization are no more likely than other women to have menstrual abnormalities.

Does assisted hatching pose a risk for monozygotic twinning in pregnancies conceived through in vitro fertilization?

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between assisted hatching and monozygotic (MZ) twinning. DESIGN: Case-control. SETTING: Population-based sample of IVF-ET cycles initiated in U.S. clinics, 1996. PATIENT(S): The IVF-ET (n = 35,503) cycles and 11,247 resultant pregnancies. INTERVENTION(S): Use of an assisted hatching procedure on embryos transferred. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Cases were pregnancies for which number of fetal hearts observed on ultrasound exceeded number of embryos transferred. These pregnancies were considered to contain at least one MZ set of twins. Cases were compared with two control groups: other multiple-gestation pregnancies (>/=2 fetal hearts but number of fetal hearts

The origin of alternation of generations in land plants: a focus on matrotrophy and hexose transport.

A life history involving alternation of two developmentally associated, multicellular generations (sporophyte and gametophyte) is an autapomorphy of embryophytes (bryophytesphytes + vascular plants). Microfossil data indicate that Mid Late Ordovician land plants possessed such a life cycle, and that the origin of alternation of generations preceded this date. Molecular phylogenetic data unambiguously relate charophycean green algae to the ancestry of monophyletic embryophytes, and identify bryophytes as early-divergent land plants. Comparison of reproduction in charophyceans and bryophytes suggests that the following stages occurred during evolutionary origin of embryophytic alternation of generations: (i) origin of oogamy; (ii) retention of eggs and zygotes on the parental thallus; (iii) origin of matrotrophy (regulated transfer of nutritional and morphogenetic solutes from parental cells to the next generation); (iv) origin of a multicellular sporophyte generation; and (v) origin of non-flagellate, walled spores. Oogamy, egg/zygote retention and matrotrophy characterize at least some modern charophvceans, and are postulated to represent pre-adaptative features inherited by embryophytes from ancestral charophyceans. Matrotrophy is hypothesized to have preceded origin of the multicellular sporophytes of' plants, and to represent a critical innovation. Molecular approaches to the study of the origins of matrotrophy include assessment of hexose transporter genes and protein family members and their expression patterns. The occurrence in modern charophyceans and bryophytes of chemically resistant tissues that exhibit distinctive morphology correlated with matrotrophy suggests that Early-Mid Ordovician or older microfossils relevant to the origin of land plant alternation of generations may be found.

High frequency hearing loss correlated with mutations in the GJB2 gene.

Genetic hearing impairment affects approximately 1/2000 live births. Mutations in one gene, GJB2, coding for connexin 26 cause 10%-20% of all genetic sensorineural hearing loss. Mutation analysis in the GJB2 gene and audiology were performed on 106 families presenting with at least one child with congenital hearing loss. The families were recruited from a hospital-based multidisciplinary clinic, which functions to investigate the aetiology of sensorineural hearing loss in children and which serves an ethnically diverse population. In 74 families (80 children), the aetiology was consistent with non-syndromic recessive hearing loss. Six different connexin 26 mutations, including one novel mutation, were identified. We show that GJB2 mutations cause a range of phenotypes from mild to profound hearing impairment and that loss of hearing in the high frequency range (4000-8000 Hz) is a characteristic feature in children with molecularly diagnosed connexin 26 hearing impairment. We also demonstrate that this type of audiology and high frequency hearing loss is found in a similar-sized group of deaf children in whom a mutation could only be found in one of the connexin 26 alleles, suggesting connexin 26 involvement in the aetiology of hearing loss in these cases. In our study of the M34T mutation, only compound heterozygotes exhibited hearing loss, suggesting autosomal recessive inheritance.

Overview of women's decision making regarding elective hysterectomy, oophorectomy, and hormone replacement therapy.

Over 600,000 hysterectomies are performed each year in the United States, the majority of which are to improve quality of life for perimenopausal women. Hysterectomy rates for common conditions differ between African American and white women, and African American women undergo surgery at a younger age for most diagnoses. Many hysterectomies are accompanied by elective oophorectomy, and hormone replacement therapy (HRT) is commonly used, especially among women experiencing surgical menopause, despite questions about its long-term benefits and risks. Despite the high rates of hysterectomy in the United States, little is known about how women make decisions regarding this surgery and, in particular, how ethnic and cultural factors may influence these decisions. This article provides a review of what is currently known about the epidemiology of hysterectomy, oophorectomy, and HRT use and identifies gaps in knowledge about women's decision making, with a special focus on ethnic variations and cultural influences, issues addressed by the Ethnicity, Needs, and Decisions of Women (ENDOW) project.

Quality measures for unintended pregnancy prevention in health care services: opportunities and challenges.

PIP: This paper discusses the opportunities and challenges in conducting quality assessment of preventive measures for unintended pregnancy in the US. According to the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth, unintended pregnancies were either mistimed or occurred after a woman intended to have no (more) children. Further, unintended pregnancies are associated with social and economic disadvantages, late prenatal care and adverse pregnancy outcomes, and mistimed opportunities for preconception counseling. Thus it is important to conduct quality assessment of preventive measures for unintended pregnancy in the clinical setting in order to address health outcomes (such as induced abortions or adolescent pregnancies), health care processes (such as screening for risk behaviors for unintended pregnancy), or health system structures (such as availability of family planning providers). This paper further discusses how quality of health care can be measured relative to unintended pregnancy.^ieng

Live-birth rates and multiple-birth risk using in vitro fertilization.

CONTEXT: To maximize birth rates, physicians who perform in vitro fertilization (IVF) often transfer multiple embryos, but this increases the multiple-birth risk. Live-birth and multiple-birth rates may vary by patient age and embryo quality. One marker for embryo quality is cryopreservation of extra embryos (if embryos are set aside for cryopreservation, higher quality embryos may have been available for transfer). OBJECTIVE: To examine associations between the number of embryos transferred during IVF and live-birth and multiple-birth rates stratified by maternal age and whether extra embryos were available (ie, extra embryos cryopreserved). DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective cohort of 300 US clinics reporting IVF transfer procedures to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in 1996. SUBJECTS: A total of 35554 IVF transfer procedures. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Live-birth and multiple-birth rates (percentage of live births that were multiple). RESULTS: A total number of 9873 live births were reported (multiple births from 1 pregnancy were counted as 1 live birth). The number of embryos needed to achieve maximum live- birth rates varied by age and whether extra embryos were cryopreserved. Among women 20 to 29 years and 30 to 34 years of age, maximum live-birth rates (43 % and 36%, respectively) were achieved when 2 embryos were transferred and extra embryos were cryopreserved. Among women 35 years of age and older, live-birth rates were lower overall and regardless of whether embryos were cryopreserved, live-birth rates increased if more than 2 embryos were transferred. Multiple-birth rates varied by age and the number of embryos transferred, but not by whether embryos were cryopreserved. With 2 embryos transferred, multiple-birth rates were 22.7%, 19.7%, 11.6%, and 10.8% for women aged 20 to 29, 30 to 34, 35 to 39, and 40 to 44 years, respectively. Multiple-birth rates increased as high as 45.7% for women aged 20 to 29 years and 39.8% for women aged 30 to 34 years if 3 embryos were transferred. Among women aged 35 to 39 years, the multiple-birth rate was 29.4% if 3 embryos were transferred. Among women 40 to 44 years of age, the multiple-birth rate was less than 25% even if 5 embryos were transferred. CONCLUSIONS: Based on these data, the risk of multiple births from IVF varies by maternal age and number of embryos transferred. Embryo quality was not related to multiple birth risk but was associated with increased live-birth rates when fewer embryos were transferred.