Rapid Growth of Large Forest Fires Drives the Exponential Response of Annual Forest-Fire Area to Aridity in the Western United States.

Annual forest area burned (AFAB) in the western United States (US) has increased as a positive exponential function of rising aridity in recent decades. This non-linear response has important implications for AFAB in a changing climate, yet the cause of the exponential AFAB-aridity relationship has not been given rigorous attention. We investigated the exponential AFAB-aridity relationship in western US forests using a new 1984-2019 database of fire events and 2001-2020 satellite-based records of daily fire growth. While forest-fire frequency and duration grow linearly with aridity, the exponential AFAB-aridity relationship results from the exponential growth rates of individual fires. Larger fires generally have more potential for growth due to more extensive firelines. Thus, forces that promote fire growth, such as aridification, have more potent effects on larger fires. As aridity increases linearly, the potential for growth of large fires accelerates, leading to exponential increases in AFAB.

Spatial behaviour of sheep during the neonatal period: Preliminary study on the influence of shelter.

Effective shelter has been demonstrated to reduce neonatal lamb mortality rates during periods of inclement weather. Periods of high wind speed and rainfall have been shown to influence shelter usage; however, it is not yet known how ewe factors such as breed, age and body condition score influence shelter-seeking behaviour. This study, conducted on a working upland farm in the UK, examined impact of artificial shelter on the biological and climatic factors that influence peri-parturient ewe behaviour. Pregnant ewes (n = 147) were randomly allocated between two adjacent fields which were selected for their similarity in size, topography, pasture management, orientation to the prevailing wind and available natural shelter. In one field, three additional artificial shelters were installed to increase the available shelter for ewes, this field was designated the Test field; no additional artificial shelter was provided in the second field which was used as the Control field. Individual ewes were observed every 2 h between 0800 and 1600 for 14 continuous days to monitor their location relative to shelter. Ewe breed (Aberfield and Highlander), age (2-8 years) and body condition score were considered as explanatory variables to explain flock and individual variance in shelter-seeking behaviour and the prevalence of issues which required the intervention of the shepherd, termed 'shepherding problems'. Any ewe observed with dystocia, a dead or poor vigour lamb or who exhibited mismothering behaviour was recorded as a shepherding problem. The prevalence of these shepherding problems which necessitate human intervention represents arguably the most critical limiting factor for the successful management of commercial sheep flocks in outdoor lambing systems. Overall, ewes in the Test field with access to additional artificial shelter experienced fewer shepherding problems than those in the Control field (P < 0.05). A significant breed effect was also observed, with Highlander ewes more likely to seek shelter than Aberfield ewes (P < 0.001), and experiencing significantly fewer shepherding interventions (P < 0.05). These findings demonstrate the substantial and significant benefits to animal welfare and productivity that can be achieved through the provision of shelter in commercial, upland, outdoor lambing systems in the UK.

Historical droughts recorded in extended Juniperus procera ring-width chronologies from the Ethiopian Highlands.

In the Horn of Africa, little is known about temporal changes in hydroclimate owing to the influence of multiple weather systems, the complex terrain, and the sparse instrumental records. Absolutely dated tree-ring records offer the potential to extend our understanding of climate into the pre-instrumental era, but tree-ring studies in this region, and indeed all of tropical Africa, have been rare largely due to lack of an annual climate cycle that reliably produces annual tree-rings. In this study, 40 cores were obtained from 31 Juniperus procera trees growing in the grounds of Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo churches in the Gonder region of Ethiopia. The samples were cross-dated using a re-iterative process involving identifying anatomical features from high-resolution images. The tentative ring-width chronologies were revised after the determination of bomb-peak accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon dates. Individual series were significantly correlated to the respective master chronologies (r > 0.55; P < 0.05), and expressed population signal values ranged from 0.55 to 0.92. Historical drought years were successfully traced in the chronologies by pointer year analysis. This study confirms that Juniperus procera growing in areas of unimodal precipitation exhibits annual tree-rings and offers the potential as an indirect measure of past climate.

Clinical and laboratory features of seventy-eight UK patients with Good's syndrome (thymoma and hypogammaglobulinaemia).

Good's syndrome (thymoma and hypogammaglobulinaemia) is a rare secondary immunodeficiency disease, previously reported in the published literature as mainly individual cases or small case series. We use the national UK-Primary Immune Deficiency (UKPID) registry to identify a large cohort of patients in the UK with this PID to review its clinical course, natural history and prognosis. Clinical information, laboratory data, treatment and outcome were collated and analysed. Seventy-eight patients with a median age of 64 years, 59% of whom were female, were reviewed. Median age of presentation was 54 years. Absolute B cell numbers and serum immunoglobulins were very low in all patients and all received immunoglobulin replacement therapy. All patients had undergone thymectomy and nine (12%) had thymic carcinoma (four locally invasive and five had disseminated disease) requiring adjuvant radiotherapy and/or chemotherapy. CD4 T cells were significantly lower in these patients with malignant thymoma. Seventy-four (95%) presented with infections, 35 (45%) had bronchiectasis, seven (9%) chronic sinusitis, but only eight (10%) had serious invasive fungal or viral infections. Patients with AB-type thymomas were more likely to have bronchiectasis. Twenty (26%) suffered from autoimmune diseases (pure red cell aplasia, hypothyroidism, arthritis, myasthenia gravis, systemic lupus erythematosus, Sjögren's syndrome). There was no association between thymoma type and autoimmunity. Seven (9%) patients had died. Good's syndrome is associated with significant morbidity relating to infectious and autoimmune complications. Prospective studies are required to understand why some patients with thymoma develop persistent hypogammaglobulinaemia.

Clinical efficacy of a next-generation sequencing gene panel for primary immunodeficiency diagnostics.

Primary immunodeficiencies (PIDs) are rare monogenic inborn errors of immunity that result in impairment of functions of the human immune system. PIDs have a broad phenotype with increased morbidity and mortality, and treatment choices are often complex. With increased accessibility of next-generation sequencing (NGS), the rate of discovery of genetic causes for PID has increased exponentially. Identification of an underlying monogenic diagnosis provides important clinical benefits for patients with the potential to alter treatments, facilitate genetic counselling, and pre-implantation diagnostics. We investigated a NGS PID panel of 242 genes within clinical care across a range of PID phenotypes. We also evaluated Phenomizer to predict causal genes from human phenotype ontology (HPO) terms. Twenty-seven participants were recruited, and a total of 15 reportable variants were identified in 48% (13/27) of the participants. The panel results had implications for treatment in 37% (10/27) of participants. Phenomizer identified the genes harbouring variants from HPO terms in 33% (9/27) of participants. This study shows the clinical efficacy that genetic testing has in the care of PID. However, it also highlights some of the disadvantages of gene panels in the rapidly moving field of PID genomics and current challenges in HPO term assignment for PID.

Association of Surgeons in Training conference: Bournemouth 2017.

The Association of Surgeons in Training (ASiT) is a professional body and registered charity working to promote excellence in surgical training for the benefit of junior doctors and patients alike. The Association provides support at both regional and national levels throughout the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland. Originally founded in 1976, ASiT is independent of the National Health Service (NHS), Surgical Royal Colleges, and specialty associations. The 2017 Annual Conference in Bournemouth brought together over 700 delegates for a diverse educational weekend with numerous expert guest speakers. With a theme of '#AdvancesIn,' we looked to celebrate cutting edge progress in training, clinical management, medical technology, leadership and entrepreneurialism. These updates were complimented by debates on current training in surgery and an array of focussed parallel sessions. For the first time, delegates were also able to interact with the conference digitally, with the debut of our conference smartphone App. The weekend started with 9 pre-conference courses covering a diverse range of topics including core laparoscopic, vascular, orthopaedics, neurosurgical skills, leadership and global surgery. Over 1000 abstract submissions were received and those successful competed for over 30 awards, representing nearly £4000 in trainee prizes and bursaries. As the only national surgical trainee meeting for all specialties, ASiT continues to grow and we look forward to an even larger and more successful international conference next year in Edinburgh 6-8th April 2018 with the theme of #nurturingexcellence.

IL-10 production by CLL cells is enhanced in the anergic IGHV mutated subset and associates with reduced DNA methylation of the IL10 locus.

Chronic lymphocytic leukemias (CLLs) with unmutated (U-CLL) or mutated (M-CLL) IGHV have variable features of immunosuppression, possibly influenced by those CLL cells activated to produce interleukin 10 (IL-10). The two subsets differ in their levels of anergy, defined by low surface immunoglobulin M levels/signaling capacity, and in their DNA methylation profile, particularly variable in M-CLL. We have now found that levels of IL-10 produced by activated CLL cells were highly variable. Levels were higher in M-CLL than in U-CLL and correlated with anergy. DNA methylation analysis of IL10 locus revealed two previously uncharacterized 'variably methylated regions' (CLL-VMRs1/2) in the gene body, but similarly low methylation in the promoter of both U-CLL and M-CLL. CLL-VMR1/2 methylation was lower in M-CLL than in U-CLL and inversely correlated with IL-10 induction. A functional signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) binding site in CLL-VMR2 was confirmed by proximity ligation and luciferase assays, whereas inhibition of SYK-mediated STAT3 activation resulted in suppression of IL10. The data suggest epigenetic control of IL-10 production. Higher tumor load may compensate the reduced IL-10 production in U-CLL, accounting for clinical immunosuppression in both subsets. The observation that SYK inhibition also suppresses IL-10 provides a potential new rationale for therapeutic targeting and immunological rescue by SYK inhibitors in CLL.

FOREST ECOLOGY. Pervasive drought legacies in forest ecosystems and their implications for carbon cycle models.

The impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are poorly understood but important for predicting carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change. Coupled climate-carbon cycle models typically assume that vegetation recovery from extreme drought is immediate and complete, which conflicts with the understanding of basic plant physiology. We examined the recovery of stem growth in trees after severe drought at 1338 forest sites across the globe, comprising 49,339 site-years, and compared the results with simulated recovery in climate-vegetation models. We found pervasive and substantial "legacy effects" of reduced growth and incomplete recovery for 1 to 4 years after severe drought. Legacy effects were most prevalent in dry ecosystems, among Pinaceae, and among species with low hydraulic safety margins. In contrast, limited or no legacy effects after drought were simulated by current climate-vegetation models. Our results highlight hysteresis in ecosystem-level carbon cycling and delayed recovery from climate extremes.

Multi-centre retrospective analysis of anaphylaxis during general anaesthesia in the United Kingdom: aetiology and diagnostic performance of acute serum tryptase.

This is the first multi-centre retrospective survey from the United Kingdom to evaluate the aetiology and diagnostic performance of tryptase in anaphylaxis during general anaesthesia (GA). Data were collected retrospectively (2005-12) from 161 patients [mean ± standard deviation (s.d.), 50 ± 15 years] referred to four regional UK centres. Receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) were constructed to assess the utility of tryptase measurements in the diagnosis of immunoglobulin (Ig)E-mediated anaphylaxis and the performance of percentage change from baseline [percentage change (PC)] and absolute tryptase (AT) quantitation. An IgE-mediated cause was identified in 103 patients (64%); neuromuscular blocking agents (NMBA) constituted the leading cause (38%) followed by antibiotics (8%), patent blue dye (6%), chlorhexidine (5%) and other agents (7%). In contrast to previous reports, latex-induced anaphylaxis was rare (0·6%). A non-IgE-mediated cause was attributed in 10 patients (6%) and no cause could be established in 48 cases (30%). Three serial tryptase measurements were available in 34% of patients and a ROC analysis of area under the curve (AUC) showed comparable performance for PC and AT. A ≥ 80% PPV for identifying an IgE-mediated anaphylaxis was achieved with a PC of >141% or an AT of >15·7 mg/l. NMBAs were the leading cause of anaphylaxis, followed by antibiotics, with latex allergy being uncommon. Chlorhexidine and patent blue dye are emerging important health-care-associated allergens that may lead to anaphylaxis. An elevated acute serum tryptase (PC >141%, AT >15·7 mg/l) is highly predictive of IgE-mediated anaphylaxis, and both methods of interpretation are comparable.

A quantitative risk assessment for the safety of carcase storage systems for scrapie infected farms.

AIMS: To determine the risk associated with the use of carcase storage vessels on a scrapie infected farm. METHODS AND RESULTS: A stochastic quantitative risk assessment was developed to determine the rate of accumulation and fate of scrapie in a novel low-input storage system. For an example farm infected with classical scrapie, a mean of 10(3·6) Ovine Oral ID50 s was estimated to accumulate annually. Research indicates that the degradation of any prions present may range from insignificant to a magnitude of one or two logs over several months of storage. CONCLUSIONS: For infected farms, the likely partitioning of remaining prion into the sludge phase would necessitate the safe operation and removal of resulting materials from these systems. If complete mixing could be assumed, on average, the concentrations of infectivity are estimated to be slightly lower than that measured in placenta from infected sheep at lambing. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: This is the first quantitative assessment of the scrapie risk associated with fallen stock on farm and provides guidance to policy makers on the safety of one type of storage system and the relative risk when compared to other materials present on an infected farm.

Ex vivo assays of dendritic cell activation and cytokine profiles as predictors of in vivo effects in an anti-human CD40 monoclonal antibody ChiLob 7/4 phase I trial.

Immunostimulatory antibodies entering the clinic create challenge in terms of not only pharmacodynamics for monitoring anticipated mechanisms but also predetermining cytotoxicity. We show the use of ex vivo whole-blood samples to predict the activation requirements, cytokine signature, and adverse events of an anti-human-CD40 chimeric IgG1 antibody, ChiLob 7/4. Assessments were initially undertaken on human myeloid (mDC1) and plasmacytoid (pDC) dendritic cells, in which an absolute need for cross-linking was shown through the upregulation of activation markers CD83 and CCR7. Subsequent cytokine secretion evaluations of ex vivo whole blood showed the cross-linked antibody-induced increases in MIP1ß, interleukin (IL)-8, IL-12, TNFα, and IL-6. This cytokine signature compared favorably with the Toll-like receptor (TLR) ligand lipopolysaccharide (LPS), in which levels of TNFα and IL-6 were significantly higher, suggesting a less intense proinflammatory response and possible modified cytokine release syndrome when used in human trials. Following first-in-human use of this agent within a dose escalation study, in vivo evaluations of dendritic cell activation and secreted cytokines closely matched the predetermined immunomonitoring endpoints. Patients showed a comparable pattern of MIP1ß, IL-8, and IL-12 secretion, but no TNFα and IL-6 were identified. Mild symptoms relating to a cytokine release syndrome were seen at an equivalent dosage to that observed for dendritic cell activation and cytokine release. In summary, ChiLob 7/4 induces a distinctive pattern of dendritic cell activation and cytokine secretion in ex vivo assays that can be predictive of in vivo responses. Such preclinical approaches to monoclonal antibody evaluation may inform both the starting dosages and the anticipated cytokine release events that could occur, providing a valuable adjunct for future first-in-human assessments of immunostimulatory antibodies.

Defects in lymphocyte subsets and serological memory persist a median of 10 years after high-dose therapy and autologous progenitor cell rescue for malignant lymphoma.

The number of survivors having undergone high-dose therapy (HDT) followed by auto-SCT continues to increase, although some of the long-term sequelae remain incompletely understood. The immunological status and quality of life of 37 HDT/auto-SCT survivors with lymphoma in continuous remission of ≥3 years were assessed alongside 14 age-matched controls. At a median follow-up of 10.5 years (range 2.2-20.2) following HDT/auto-SCT, the proportion of CD4(+) cells remained significantly reduced in patients compared with controls (median 43.4% vs 62.5%, respectively; P = < 0.001), predominantly a result of sustained reduction in the naive CD4(+) component (P < 0.001). Naive CD8(+) lymphocytes (P = 0.014) and transitional B cells (P = 0.008) were also significantly reduced, but differences in other lymphocyte subsets were not observed. Uptake of revaccination following HDT/auto-SCT was sporadic; between 11% and 33% of patients had serological titres outside the protective ranges for five of six routinely used vaccines. In the main, patients were found to have a good quality of life, although their EORTC QLQ-C30 questionnaire scores were significantly lower for the physical and social functioning domains compared with controls. Ten years after HDT/auto-SCT immunological deficits persist; to avoid excess risk of preventable disease, serological immunity should be assessed post HDT/auto-SCT followed by appropriate revaccination.

Combining risk assessment and epidemiological risk factors to elucidate the sources of human E. coli O157 infection.

E. coli O157 can be transmitted to humans by three primary (foodborne, environmental, waterborne) and one secondary (person-to-person transmission) pathways. A regression model and quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) were applied to determine the relative importance of the primary transmission pathways in NE Scotland. Both approaches indicated that waterborne infection was the least important but it was unclear whether food or the environment was the main source of infection. The QMRAs over-predicted the number of cases by a factor of 30 and this could be because all E. coli O157 strains may not be equally infective and/or the level of infectivity in the dose-response model was too high. The efficacy of potential risk mitigation strategies to reduce human exposure to E. coli O157 using QMRAs was simulated. Risk mitigation strategies focusing on food and environment are likely to have the biggest impact on infection figures.

Seroprevalence and risk factors associated with Escherichia coli O157 in a farming population.

Evidence suggests that frequent and direct exposure to domestic animals has made farmers less susceptible to symptomatic Escherichia coli O157 infection than other members of the community. We have quantified the seroprevalence of antibodies to E. coli O157 lipopolysaccharide (LPS) from a representative cohort of farm workers in three geographically distinct regions of the United Kingdom during two sampling rounds over a 2-year period. All participants completed a questionnaire to determine the range and extent of recent animal contact alongside other potential occupational and environmental exposure routes. A total of 31/946 (3.3%) serum samples contained antibodies to E. coli O157 LPS (from both rounds combined). On the second sampling round, a significant difference in seropositivity was apparent between the three regions, with enhanced seroprevalence linked to recent contact with beef cattle, having a private water supply and contact with a child under 5 years old. Only five seropositive people reported symptoms of a gastrointestinal tract infection, although these symptoms were mild. These results further support the premise of acquired immunity to E. coli O157 associated with prolonged antigenic exposures within the farming environment.

The relationship between lay and technical views of Escherichia coli O157 risk.

Here, we bring together and contrast lay (accessible primarily through social science methodologies) and technical (via risk assessment and epidemiological techniques) views of the risk associated with the Escherichia coli O157 pathogen using two case study areas in the Grampian region of Scotland, and North Wales. Epidemiological risk factors of contact with farm animals, visiting farms or farm fields and having a private water supply were associated with postcode districts of higher than average disease incidence in the human population. However, this was not the case for the epidemiological risk factor of consumption of beef burgers, which was independent of disease incidence in the postcode district of residence. The proportion of the population expressing a high knowledge of E. coli O157 was greatest in high-incidence disease districts compared with low-incidence areas (17% cf. 7%). This supports the hypothesis that in high-disease-incidence areas, residents are regularly exposed to information about the disease through local cases, the media, local social networks, etc. or perhaps that individuals are more likely to be motivated to find out about it. However, no statistically significant difference was found between high- and low-incidence postcode districts in terms of the proportion of the population expressing a high likelihood of personal risk of infection (10% cf. 14%), giving a counterintuitive difference between the technical (epidemiological and quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA)) and the lay assessment of E. coli O157 risk. This suggests that lay evaluations of E. coli O157 risk reflect intuitive and experience-based estimates of the risk rather than probabilistic estimates. A generally strong correspondence was found in terms of the rank order given to potential infection pathways, with environment and foodborne infection routes dominating when comparing public understanding with technical modelling results. Two general conclusions follow from the work. First, that integrative research incorporating both lay and technical views of risk is required in order that informed decisions can be made to handle or treat the risk by the groups concerned (e.g. the public, policy makers/risk managers, etc.). Second, when communicating risk, for example, through education programmes, it is important that this process is two-way with risk managers (e.g. including Food Standards Agency officials and communications team, public health infection control and environmental health officers) both sharing information with the public and stakeholder groups, as well as incorporating public knowledge, values and context (e.g. geographical location) into risk-management decisions.

Grazing intensity is a poor indicator of waterborne Escherichia coli O157 activity.

Contamination of watercourses with fecal matter represents a significant risk to public health due to the associated risk from human pathogens (e.g. Escherichia coli O157, norovirus). In addition, water contamination may also perpetuate the re-infection cycle of human pathogens within domesticated and wild animal populations. While diffuse pollution from agricultural fields has been identified as a major source of these pathogens, the relationship between livestock grazing intensity and subsequent pathogen persistence in water is not well established. Our aim was to critically evaluate the importance of land use management on the activity of E. coli O157 in freshwaters collected from a livestock dominated catchment in the UK. We inoculated replicate batches of both filter-sterilised and non-sterile freshwaters with a chromosomally lux-marked E. coli O157 and monitored pathogen survival and activity over a 5 d period. Our results indicate that the greatest risk for pathogens entering freshwater is probably associated with high intensity livestock areas, although their subsequent survival is greatest in waters from low intensity livestock areas. We ascribe this enhanced persistence in the latter to reduced competition and predation within these aquatic environments. These results have serious implications for the reliability of pathogen risk exposure maps which are based on grazing intensity alone.

Escherichia coli O157: comparing awareness of rural residents and visitors in livestock farming areas.

This research compared public opinions about Escherichia coli O157 (an increasing environmental hazard associated with livestock) in two farming areas with contrasting incidence of E. coli O157 disease. A questionnaire was administered in rural Grampian (10·8 cases/100,000 population per year) and North Wales (2·5 cases/100,000 population per year). Awareness was highest among farmers in Grampian (91%) and lowest among visitors to both areas (28%). Respondents were more likely to indicate vomiting (76%) than bloody diarrhoea (48%) as a common symptom. Undercooked meat and contact with farm animal faeces were identified by 60% of all respondents as risk factors who described 'basic hygiene' for risk reduction indoors. Visitors view E. coli O157 as a food hazard, not an environmental hazard that produces vomiting not dysentery. Efforts to reduce human infections in livestock farming areas could be improved with proximate reminders for visitors of the environmental pathway of E. coli O157 infection.

Microbiological quality of chicken wings damaged on the farm or in the processing plant.

Selling of damaged chicken wings (those with bone protrusion) for human consumption is prohibited in the European Union on the grounds of possible risks to human health arising from microbial contamination. Standard food industry tests were used to assess different categories of chicken wings (undamaged, farm damaged and factory damaged; n = 264) for, coliforms, Enterobacteriaceae, total viable counts, Pseudomonas spp., Staphylococcus aureus and Salmonella spp. No significant differences in bacterial numbers existed among wings belonging to the three categories. Only low numbers of bacteria were found throughout, and 97% of all results would pass the standards of a leading UK retailer. These results were strengthened by a longitudinal survey of wing breakage, which showed almost all wing puncturing occurred during the de-feathering process, limiting the likelihood of microbial contamination. Combined, these results indicate there is no increased health risk from consumption of damaged, compared to undamaged, chicken wings. The existing imposed regulations may therefore be an unnecessary burden on the poultry industry.