Graduated driver licensing (GDL) in the United States in 2016: A literature review and commentary.

This is the sixth in a series of reviews of research on graduated driver licensing (GDL) published in the Journal of Safety Research, the present review covering the period mid-2012 through 2016. In the two decades since GDL programs began to be introduced on a widespread basis in the United States, a vast amount of research has been published. The current review discusses recent research and the present state of knowledge on the following topics: characteristics of the novice driver population; effects of GDL on crashes for ages 16-19; the learner and intermediate periods; night and passenger restrictions; cellphone laws; GDL for older novices; enforcement of GDL rules; and programs attempting to influence GDL compliance and safe driving practices in general. GDL stands out as a successful policy for reducing teen driver crashes and is worth building on to extend its benefits. Strengthening existing GDL programs has the most potential for producing further crash reductions.

Trends in teen driver licensure, driving patterns and crash involvement in the United States, 2006-2015.

INTRODUCTION: The Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey provides nationally-representative annual estimates of licensure and driving patterns among U.S. teens. A previous study using MTF data reported substantial declines in the proportion of high school seniors that were licensed to drive and increases in the proportion of nondrivers following the recent U.S. economic recession. METHOD: To explore whether licensure and driving patterns among U.S. high school seniors have rebounded in the post-recession years, we analyzed MTF licensure and driving data for the decade of 2006-2015. We also examined trends in teen driver involvement in fatal and nonfatal injury crashes for that decade using data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System and National Automotive Sampling System General Estimates System, respectively. RESULTS: During 2006-2015, the proportion of high school seniors that reported having a driver's license declined by 9 percentage points (11%) from 81% to 72% and the proportion that did not drive during an average week increased by 8 percentage points (44%) from 18% to 26%. The annual proportion of black seniors that did not drive was consistently greater than twice the proportion of nondriving white seniors. Overall during the decade, 17- and 18-year-old drivers experienced large declines in fatal and nonfatal injury crashes, although crashes increased in both 2014 and 2015. CONCLUSIONS: The MTF data indicate that licensure and driving patterns among U.S. high school seniors have not rebounded since the economic recession. The recession had marked negative effects on teen employment opportunities, which likely influenced teen driving patterns. Possible explanations for the apparent discrepancies between the MTF data and the 2014 and 2015 increases in crashes are explored. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: MTF will continue to be an important resource for clarifying teen driving trends in relation to crash trends and informing strategies to improve teen driver safety.

Comparison of older and younger novice driver crash rates: Informing the need for extended Graduated Driver Licensing restrictions.

BACKGROUND: Few previous studies have directly compared crash rates of older and younger novice drivers. To inform discussion about whether Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) policies that are applied in the US for younger novice drivers should be applied to older novice drivers, we conducted a longitudinal study to examine overall, nighttime, and multiple passenger crash rates over the initial four years of licensure differ for novice drivers licensed at different ages. METHODS: Using data from the New Jersey Traffic Safety Outcomes (NJ-TSO) data warehouse, we selected all NJ drivers who obtained their initial intermediate driver's license from 2006 through 2014 and had at least one month of follow-up from the date of licensure to study end or death (n=1,034,835). Novice drivers were grouped based on age at licensure: age 17; 18-20; 21-24; and 25 or older. We estimated monthly rates for overall crashes (per 10,000 licensed drivers) as well as: late night crashes (11:01 p.m.-4:59 a.m.); early night crashes (9:00 p.m.-11:00 p.m.); and multiple passenger crashes (two or more passengers). Average monthly rates were calculated for specific relevant time periods and Poisson regression models were used to compare rates: (1) between novice driver groups with the same time since licensure; (2) over the first 48 months of licensure within each novice driver group; and (3) between same-aged 21-year-old drivers with varying lengths of licensure. RESULTS: Although initial (three months post-licensure) overall crash rates of novice NJ drivers age 21 and older were higher than rates of same-aged experienced drivers, they were substantially lower than initial rates for 17- to 20-year-old novice drivers, who are licensed under GDL policies. Moreover, older novice drivers experience much less steep crash reductions over the first year of licensure than younger novice drivers. Nighttime crash rates among the 21- to 24-year old and aged 25 and older novice driver groups were stable over the first year of licensure. For novice drivers under age 21, early night crash rates declined rapidly over the course of licensure, while changes in late night crashes were much smaller. First-year multiple passenger crash rates were highest for drivers licensed at age 18-20, and novice driver groups experienced varying amounts of reduction in multiple passenger crashes over time. CONCLUSIONS: Study findings support NJ's current GDL policies for 17- to 20-year-old novice drivers and the potential for added benefits from beginning the nighttime restriction at 9:00 p.m. Conversely, there was a lack of compelling evidence for additional policies for drivers licensed at age 21-24 and no evidence to indicate a need for additional GDL policies for NJ novices aged 25 years and older.

Graduated Driver Licensing Night Driving Restrictions and Drivers Aged 16 or 17 Years Involved in Fatal Night Crashes - United States, 2009-2014.

Fatal crash risk is higher at night for all drivers, but especially for young, inexperienced drivers (1). To help address the increased crash risk for beginner teen drivers, 49 states and the District of Columbia include a night driving restriction (NDR) in their Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) system. NDRs have been shown to reduce crashes among newly licensed teens, with higher reductions associated with NDRs starting at 10:00 p.m. or earlier (2-3). However, in 23 states and the District of Columbia, NDRs begin at 12:00 a.m. or later, times when most teen drivers subject to GDL are not driving. CDC analyzed 2009-2014 national and state-level data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) to determine the proportion of drivers aged 16 or 17 years involved in fatal crashes who crashed at night (9:00 p.m.-5:59 a.m.) and the proportion of these drivers who crashed before 12:00 a.m. Nationwide, among 6,104 drivers aged 16 or 17 years involved in fatal crashes during 2009-2014, 1,865 (31%) were involved in night crashes. Among drivers involved in night crashes, 1,054 (57%) crashed before 12:00 a.m. State-level analyses revealed an approximately twofold variation among states in both the proportions of drivers aged 16 or 17 years involved in fatal crashes that occurred at night and the proportions of night fatal crash involvements that occurred before 12:00 a.m. Because nearly all of the night driving trips taken by drivers aged 16 or 17 years end before 12:00 a.m., NDRs beginning at 12:00 a.m. or later provide minimal protection. States could consider updating their NDR coverage to include earlier nighttime hours. This descriptive report summarizes the characteristics of NDRs, estimates the extent to which drivers aged 16 or 17 years drive at night, and describes their involvement in fatal nighttime crashes during 2009-2014. The effects of NDRs on crashes were not evaluated because of the small state-level sample sizes during the 6-year study period.

History and current status of state graduated driver licensing (GDL) laws in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: The objective of this study is to describe changes in teenage driver licensing policies in the United States during the past two decades with the introduction of graduated driver licensing (GDL) programs, assess GDL laws currently in place, and discuss the possibilities and likely consequences of further changes. METHODS: The history of laws introducing and amending GDL programs was tracked, based on records maintained by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS). Counts of states included the District of Columbia. RESULTS: A few states had elements of GDL prior to the mid-1990s, and between 1996 and 2006 all other states adopted a learner period of 2 months or more, a minimum supervised practice hours requirement for the learner period, or a night or passenger restriction once initially licensed. All but seven states have upgraded their original laws one or more times. Very few states weakened their laws, usually in minor ways. In 158 instances, minimum learner periods, minimum practice hour requirements, or night or passenger restrictions were added or strengthened. Fifteen states raised the minimum age for a license allowing any unsupervised driving. CONCLUSION: GDL policies have reduced teenage driver crashes. Most states now have at least minimum requirements for basic GDL features, although there is substantial opportunity for strengthening existing policies. Additional upgrades would result in further crash reductions, but very few have been made in recent years. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: Guidelines for maximizing the crash reduction potential of GDL programs are available, based on the experience of U.S. states, other countries with GDL programs, and the evaluation literature in regard to GDL components.

A Review of Hazard Anticipation Training Programs for Young Drivers.

PURPOSE: Poor hazard anticipation skills are a risk factor associated with high motor vehicle crash rates of young drivers. A number of programs have been developed to improve these skills. The purpose of this review was to assess the empirical literature on hazard anticipation training for young drivers. METHODS: Studies were included if they (1) included an assessment of hazard anticipation training outcomes; (2) were published between January 1, 1980 and December 31, 2013 in an English language peer-reviewed journal or conference proceeding; and (3) included at least one group that uniquely comprised a cohort of participants aged <21 years. Nineteen studies met inclusion criteria. RESULTS: Studies used a variety of training methods including interactive computer programs, videos, simulation, commentary driving, or a combination of approaches. Training effects were predominantly measured through computer-based testing and driving simulation with eye tracking. Four studies included an on-road evaluation. Most studies evaluated short-term outcomes (immediate or few days). In all studies, young drivers showed improvement in selected hazard anticipation outcomes but none investigated crash effects. CONCLUSIONS: Although there is promise in existing programs, future research should include long-term follow-up, evaluate crash outcomes, and assess the optimal timing of hazard anticipation training taking into account the age and experience level of young drivers.

Driving among high school students - United States, 2013.

During 2004-2013, the number of passenger vehicle drivers aged 16-19 years involved in fatal crashes in the United States declined by 55% from 5,724 to 2,568.* In addition to graduated driver licensing (GDL) programs and safer vehicles,† other possible contributors to the decline include adolescents waiting longer to get their driver licenses and driving less. The crash risk for drivers of any age is highest during the first months of independent driving, and this risk is highest for the youngest teenage drivers. To estimate the percentage of high school students aged ≥16 years who have driven during the past 30 days, by age, race/ethnicity, and location, CDC analyzed 2013 data from the national Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) and YRBS data collected by 42 states and 21 large urban school districts. Nationwide, 76.3% of high school students aged ≥16 years reported having driven during the 30 days before the survey; 83.2% of white students had driven compared with <70% of black and Hispanic students. Across 42 states, the percentage of students who drove ranged from 53.8% to 90.2%. Driving prevalence was higher in the midwestern and mountain states. Across the 21 large urban school districts, the percentage of drivers varied more than twofold from 30.2% to 76.0%. This report provides the most detailed evidence to date that the percentage of students who drive varies substantially depending on where they live. Such information will be vital as states and communities consider potential ways to improve safety for older teenage novice drivers and plan for safe, affordable transportation options for those who do not drive.

On-road all-terrain vehicle (ATV) fatalities in the United States.

BACKGROUND: The study was designed to describe the characteristics of all-terrain vehicle (ATV) rider fatalities and fatal crashes involving ATVs that occur on public roads. METHODS: Information on fatal crashes occurring on public roads during the years 2007-2011 was obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS). RESULTS: There were 1,701 ATV rider deaths during the 5-year study period, including 1,482 drivers, 210 passengers, and 9 with unknown rider status. An additional 19 non-ATV occupants, primarily motorcyclists, died in crashes with ATVs. About half of the ATV passenger deaths were teenagers or younger, and the majority of passenger deaths were female. Ninety percent of the fatally injured drivers were 16 or older, and 90% were male. The crashes were most likely to occur in relatively rural states, and in rural areas within states. Only 13% of drivers and 6% of passengers killed wore helmets. Forty-three percent of the fatally injured drivers had blood alcohol concentrations (BACs) of 0.08% or greater. Seventy-five percent of the fatal crashes involved single ATVs; 5% involved multiple ATVs but no non-ATV vehicles, and 20% involved ATVs and non-ATVs, usually passenger vehicles. Speeding was reported by police as a contributing factor in the crash for 42% of ATV drivers in single-vehicle crashes and 19% of ATV drivers in multiple-vehicle crashes. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: Although ATVs are designed exclusively for off-road use, many ATV occupant deaths occur on roads, despite most states having laws prohibiting many types of on-road use. Attention needs to be given to ways to reduce these deaths.

Views of New Jersey teenagers about their state's policies for beginning drivers.

BACKGROUND: Three New Jersey licensing policies are unique in the United States: (a) minimum licensing age of 17; (b) applying full graduated driver licensing (GDL) rules to beginners younger than 21; and (c) requiring license status decals on vehicle plates of drivers in GDL. METHODS: New Jersey 17-19 year-olds were surveyed by telephone and online. RESULTS: Eighty-four percent approved licensing at 17; 77% approved applying GDL to older novices; 23% approved the decal policy. Probationary licensees ages 18-19 were more likely than 17 year-olds to have multiple nighttime restriction violations in the past month. There were no age group differences in passenger restriction violations. DISCUSSION: All three policies have been considered in other states. Views of teenagers directly affected by the policies can be taken into account in considering their implementation. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: Views of licensing policies by affected teenagers indicate potential support or obstacles to their adoption in other states.

Characteristics of teens-with-teens fatal crashes in the United States, 2005-2010.

BACKGROUND: More than 40% of fatal crashes of 16- and 17-year-old drivers occur when transporting teenagers. Characteristics of this predominant crash type and prevention possibilities are described, based on data from fatal crashes in the United States during 2005-2010. RESULTS: Fifty-seven percent of 16- and 17-year old drivers in fatal crashes had at least one passenger. Most commonly, all passengers were ages 13-19 (42% of all drivers and 73% of those with passengers). Of fatal crashinvolved drivers with teenage passengers and no passengers of other ages, 56% had one passenger, 24% had two, and 20% had three or more. Most frequently, passengers were the same sex and within one year of the driver. Risk factors involving speeding, alcohol use, late-night driving, lack of a valid license, seat belt non-use, and crash responsibility were more prevalent with teenage passengers than when driving alone, and the prevalence of these factors increased with the number of teenage passengers. Many risk factors were most prevalent with passengers ages 20-29, although few crashes had this occupant configuration. Risk factors were least prevalent with a passenger 30 or older. DISCUSSION: Fatal crashes of 16- and 17-year-old drivers with teen passengers are a common crash scenario, despite passenger restrictions in 42 states and the District of Columbia during some or all of the study period. The proportion of these fatal crashes decreased slightly from 46% in 1995 (pre-GDL) to 43% in 2010 and showed no signs of decreasing during the six-year study period (range 41% to 43%). PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: Existing passenger restrictions are relatively weak and could be strengthened. Fatal crashes involving teen passengers, especially multiple passengers, are more likely to involve alcohol, late-night driving, driver error, and invalid licensure, so stepped-up enforcement of existing laws involving these behaviors might reduce the prevalence of such crashes.

Commentary: teenage driver fatal crash rate trends: what do they reveal?

OBJECTIVE: To determine long-term fatal crash rate trends of teenage drivers in the United States, before and after the introduction of graduated driver licensing programs. METHODS: Teenage driver fatal crash involvement rates were calculated for 1990-2011 and referenced to rates for 25- to 59-year-olds. RESULTS: The results indicated reductions in teen crash rates coincident with the economic downturn in 2008-2009 and reductions at ages 16 and 17 reflecting the introduction graduated driver licensing (GDL) but no effects positive or negative at ages 18 and 19. CONCLUSIONS: The high crash rates at 18 and 19 relative to other ages call for attention, including extending GDL to ages older than 17.

Driver licensing and reasons for delaying licensure among young adults ages 18-20, United States, 2012.

BACKGROUND: Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death for teens and young adults in the United States. Graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems were designed to protect young novice drivers by limiting their exposure to specific risks while they gain experience driving. In the United States, most states' GDL systems only apply to new drivers younger than 18. Some experts suggest that GDL might encourage young people to wait until age 18 to obtain a license, to avoid GDL requirements, resulting in older teenagers having less driving experience and higher crash risk than they might have had without GDL. This study examined the prevalence and timing of licensure among young adults, and explored factors associated with delaying licensure among those not licensed before age 18. METHODS: An online questionnaire was completed by 1,039 persons aged 18-20 years, recruited from a representative panel of United States households. Main outcome measures were acquisition of driver's license (a) within 12 months of the state minimum age for licensure, (b) before age 18. Associations of timing of licensure with demographic characteristics were assessed using multivariable logistic regression. Respondents not licensed before age 18 were asked to rate the importance of various possible reasons for delaying licensure. RESULTS: 54% of respondents were licensed before age 18. Blacks (37%; adjusted Prevalence Ratio 0.67, 95% Confidence Interval 0.48-0.93) and Hispanics (29%; adjusted Prevalence Ratio 0.60, 95% Confidence Interval 0.45-0.81) were less likely than non-Hispanic whites (67%) to be licensed before age 18. Lower household income was independently associated with delayed licensure (P < .001). The most common self-reported reasons for not becoming licensed sooner were not having a car, being able to get around without driving, and costs associated with driving. CONCLUSIONS: There was little evidence that GDL is a major contributor to delayed licensure; however, a substantial minority of young people do not obtain a driver's license until age 18 or older and thus begin driving outside of the GDL system, which in most states only applies to new drivers younger than 18. More research is needed to investigate the safety of older novice drivers.

Trends in driver licensing status and driving among high school seniors in the United States, 1996-2010.

INTRODUCTION: Understanding the reasons for fluctuations in teenage driver crashes over time in the United States is clouded by the lack of information on licensure rates and driving exposure. METHODS: We examined results from the Monitoring the Future survey to estimate the proportion of high school seniors who possessed a driver's license and the proportion of seniors who did not drive "during an average week" during the 15-year period of 1996-2010. RESULTS: During 1996-2010, the proportion of high school seniors in United States who reported having a driver's license declined by 12 percentage points (14%) from 85% to 73%. Two-thirds of the decline (8 percentage points) occurred during 2006-2010. During the same 15-year period, the proportion of high school seniors who did not drive during an average week increased by 7 percentage points (47%) from 15% in 1996 to 22% in 2010, with essentially all of the increase occurring during 2006-2009. DISCUSSION: Findings in this report suggest that the economic recession in recent years has reduced rates of licensure and driving among high school seniors.

Licensing age issues: deliberations from a workshop devoted to this topic.

OBJECTIVE: To highlight the issues and discuss the research evidence regarding safety, mobility, and other consequences of different licensing ages. METHODS: Information included is based on presentations and discussions at a 1-day workshop on licensing age issues and a review and synthesis of the international literature. RESULTS: The literature indicates that higher licensing ages are associated with safety benefits. There is an associated mobility loss, more likely to be an issue in rural states. Legislative attempts to raise the minimum age for independent driving in the United States--for example, from 16 to 17--have been resisted, although in some states the age has been raised indirectly through graduated driver licensing (GDL) policies. CONCLUSIONS: Jurisdictions can achieve reductions in teenage crashes by raising the licensing age. This can be done directly or indirectly by strengthening GDL systems, in particular extending the minimum length of the learner period. Supplementary materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Traffic Injury Prevention for the following supplemental resource: List of workshop participants.

New Jersey's license plate decal requirement for graduated driver licenses: attitudes of parents and teenagers, observed decal use, and citations for teenage driving violations.

OBJECTIVES: On May 1, 2010, New Jersey implemented a law requiring teenagers with learner's permits or probationary licenses to display reflective decals on the front and rear license plates when they drive. The current study examined attitudes of parents and teenagers toward this requirement, use of decals, and reported violations and police enforcement of the graduated driver license law. METHOD: Statewide telephone surveys of representative samples of parents and teenagers were conducted in February to April 2010 and March to June 2011. Use of decals among probationary license holders was observed at 4 high schools in fall 2010 and in spring 2011 and hand-out surveys were distributed. Data on citations issued for violations of the graduated driver license law were obtained. RESULTS: When interviewed in spring 2011, a large majority of parents of probationary license holders, parents of learner's permit holders, and teenagers with probationary licenses disapproved of decals for probationary licenses. About two thirds of both sets of parents and about half of teenagers disapproved of decals for learner's permits. Support for decals for both license types declined significantly from 2010 to 2011. For parents and teenagers alike, opposition was mainly attributed to concern about identifying and/or targeting teenage drivers by other drivers, predators, or police. In 2011, 77 percent of parents of probationary license holders said that their teenagers had decals for the vehicles driven most often; 46 percent said their teenagers always used decals. Fifty-six percent of parents of learner's permit holders said that their teenagers had decals for the vehicles driven most often; 37 percent said that their teenagers always used decals. Teenagers' reported violations of license restrictions either increased or were similar in 2011 compared to 2010. Observed rates of decal use by probationary license holders at high schools in spring 2011 ranged from 24 to 64 percent. The number of statewide citations for teenage licensing law violations doubled in the year after the decal requirement took effect compared to the prior year. Excluding decal violations, citations increased by 52 percent. CONCLUSIONS: Early examination of New Jersey's decal requirement found widespread opposition, primarily due to concerns about identifying/targeting teenage drivers, though first-hand reports of such incidents were very rare. Many teenagers do not use the decals. Increased issuance of citations for violations of the teenage licensing law suggests that decals are facilitating police enforcement. However, based on teenagers' self-reports, the requirement does not appear to have achieved the ultimate goal of increased compliance.

Teen driver risk in relation to age and number of passengers, United States, 2007-2010.

OBJECTIVE: To provide updated estimates of the relationship between the number and ages of passengers present in a vehicle and the crash risk per mile driven of 16- and 17-year-old drivers. METHODS: Data on crashes that occurred in years 2007-2010 and data on the number of miles driven in years 2008-2009 were examined. Rates of crash involvement and driver death per mile driven were estimated for 16- and 17-year-old drivers with no passengers; with 1, 2, and 3 or more passengers younger than age 21 (and no older passengers); and with at least 1 passenger aged 35 or older. RESULTS: For 16- and 17-year-old drivers, having 1 passenger younger than age 21 (and no older passengers) was associated with 44 percent greater risk per mile driven of being killed in a crash, compared to having no passengers (relative risk [RR]: 1.44, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01-2.04). Having 2 passengers younger than age 21 was associated with double the risk of being killed in a crash, compared to having no passengers (RR: 2.02, 95% CI: 1.36-2.99). Having 3 or more passengers younger than age 21 was associated with roughly quadruple the risk of being killed in a crash, compared to having no passengers (RR: 4.39, 95% CI: 1.45-13.31). The relative risk of being involved in any police-reported crash in the presence of young passengers followed a similar pattern; however, the differences in risks of being involved in any police-reported crash were smaller and were not statistically significant. Having at least 1 passenger aged 35 or older in the vehicle was associated with a 62 percent lower risk per mile driven of being killed in a crash (RR: 0.38, 95% CI: 0.24-0.60) and a 46 percent lower risk of being involved in any police-reported crash (RR: 0.54, 95% CI: 0.31-0.93) for 16- and 17-year-old drivers, compared to having no passengers. CONCLUSIONS: These results show that although the overall number of teen driver fatalities has decreased substantially over the past several years, carrying young passengers is still a significant risk factor for young drivers. In contrast, carrying adult passengers is associated with significantly lower risk of crash involvement.

Graduated driver licensing research, 2010-present.

This is the latest in a series of reviews of research on graduated driver licensing (GDL) published in the Journal of Safety Research, covering the period January 1, 2010-June 1, 2012 and works in progress. The intent is to keep researchers and policy makers current regarding the existing state of knowledge about GDL, and to identify information gaps and areas where clarification of research findings are needed. The recent research indicates that we continue to learn about ways to extend GDL benefits, but there remain important questions in need of further inquiry. In terms of impact on industry, the review provides guidance for the future GDL research agenda.

Motor vehicle fatal crash profiles of 13-15-year-olds.

OBJECTIVE: The goal was to provide a description of fatal crashes involving 13-15-year-old drivers and passengers. METHODS: Information was obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System for 2005-2009. RESULTS: The 1,994 passenger deaths during the 2005-2009 period far exceeded the number of driver deaths (299) or the number of drivers in fatal crashes (744). Passenger deaths occurring with teenage drivers, particularly 16-17-year-olds, increased with passenger age. Most 13-15-year-old drivers in crashes were driving either with no license or permit (63%), or with a permit but without required adult presence (10 percent). Fatal crashes involving illegal driving were most likely to involve high-risk actions such as speeding and nonuse of belts. Supervised learners were few in number (about 12 per year) and had the lowest rates of high-risk actions. CONCLUSIONS: The main issues for 13-15-year-olds' motor vehicle deaths are passenger deaths and driving without a license or adult supervision. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Parents, pediatricians, and others need to recognize the increase in motor vehicle occupant deaths that occurs in the early teen years.