Accounting for albedo change to identify climate-positive tree cover restoration.

Restoring tree cover changes albedo, which is the fraction of sunlight reflected from the Earth's surface. In most locations, these changes in albedo offset or even negate the carbon removal benefits with the latter leading to global warming. Previous efforts to quantify the global climate mitigation benefit of restoring tree cover have not accounted robustly for albedo given a lack of spatially explicit data. Here we produce maps that show that carbon-only estimates may be up to 81% too high. While dryland and boreal settings have especially severe albedo offsets, it is possible to find places that provide net-positive climate mitigation benefits in all biomes. We further find that on-the-ground projects are concentrated in these more climate-positive locations, but that the majority still face at least a 20% albedo offset. Thus, strategically deploying restoration of tree cover for maximum climate benefit requires accounting for albedo change and we provide the tools to do so.

Albedo changes caused by future urbanization contribute to global warming.

The replacement of natural lands with urban structures has multiple environmental consequences, yet little is known about the magnitude and extent of albedo-induced warming contributions from urbanization at the global scale in the past and future. Here, we apply an empirical approach to quantify the climate effects of past urbanization and future urbanization projected under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We find an albedo-induced warming effect of urbanization for both the past and the projected futures under three illustrative scenarios. The albedo decease from urbanization in 2018 relative to 2001 has yielded a 100-year average annual global warming of 0.00014 [0.00008, 0.00021] °C. Without proper mitigation, future urbanization in 2050 relative to 2018 and that in 2100 relative to 2018 under the intermediate emission scenario (SSP2-4.5) would yield a 100-year average warming effect of 0.00107 [0.00057,0.00179] °C and 0.00152 [0.00078,0.00259] °C, respectively, through altering the Earth's albedo.

Patterns of post-drought recovery are strongly influenced by drought duration, frequency, post-drought wetness, and bioclimatic setting.

Understanding vegetation recovery after drought is critical for projecting vegetation dynamics in future climates. From 1997 to 2009, Australia experienced a long-lasting drought known as the Millennium Drought (MD), which led to widespread reductions in vegetation productivity. However, vegetation recovery post-drought and its determinants remain unclear. This study leverages remote sensing products from different sources-fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR), based on optical data, and canopy density, derived from microwave data-and random forest algorithms to assess drought recovery over Australian natural vegetation during a 20-year period centered on the MD. Post-drought recovery was prevalent across the continent, with 6 out of 10 drought events seeing full recovery within about 6 months. Canopy density was slower to recover than leaf area seen in FPAR. The probability of full recovery was most strongly controlled by drought return interval, post-drought hydrological condition, and drought length. Full recovery was seldom observed when drought events occurred at intervals of 3 months or less, and moderately dry (standardized water balance anomaly [SWBA] within [-1, -0.76]) post-drought conditions resulted in less complete recovery than wet (SWBA > 0.3) post-drought conditions. Press droughts, which are long term but not extreme, delayed recovery more than pulse droughts (short term but extreme) and led to a higher frequency of persistent decline. Following press droughts, the frequency of persistent decline differed little among biome types but peaked in semi-arid regions across aridity levels. Forests and savanna required the longest recovery times for press drought, while grasslands were the slowest to recover for pulse drought. This study provides quantitative thresholds that could be used to improve the modeling of ecosystem dynamics post-drought.

Natural climate solutions for Canada.

Alongside the steep reductions needed in fossil fuel emissions, natural climate solutions (NCS) represent readily deployable options that can contribute to Canada's goals for emission reductions. We estimate the mitigation potential of 24 NCS related to the protection, management, and restoration of natural systems that can also deliver numerous co-benefits, such as enhanced soil productivity, clean air and water, and biodiversity conservation. NCS can provide up to 78.2 (41.0 to 115.1) Tg CO2e/year (95% CI) of mitigation annually in 2030 and 394.4 (173.2 to 612.4) Tg CO2e cumulatively between 2021 and 2030, with 34% available at ≤CAD 50/Mg CO2e. Avoided conversion of grassland, avoided peatland disturbance, cover crops, and improved forest management offer the largest mitigation opportunities. The mitigation identified here represents an important potential contribution to the Paris Agreement, such that NCS combined with existing mitigation plans could help Canada to meet or exceed its climate goals.

Climate impacts of U.S. forest loss span net warming to net cooling.

Storing carbon in forests is a leading land-based strategy to curb anthropogenic climate change, but its planetary cooling effect is opposed by warming from low albedo. Using detailed geospatial data from Earth-observing satellites and the national forest inventory, we quantify the net climate effect of losing forest across the conterminous United States. We find that forest loss in the intermountain and Rocky Mountain West causes net planetary cooling but losses east of the Mississippi River and in Pacific Coast states tend toward net warming. Actual U.S. forest conversions from 1986 to 2000 cause net cooling for a decade but then transition to a large net warming over a century. Avoiding these forest conversions could have yielded a 100-year average annual global cooling of 0.00088°C. This would offset 17% of the 100-year climate warming effect from a single year of U.S. fossil fuel emissions, underscoring the scale of the mitigation challenge.

Assessing regional drought impacts on vegetation and evapotranspiration: a case study in Guanacaste, Costa Rica.

This research investigates ecological responses to drought by developing a conceptual framework of vegetation response and investigating how multiple measures of drought can improve regional drought monitoring. We apply this approach to a case study of a recent drought in Guanacaste, Costa Rica. First, we assess drought severity with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) based on a 64-yr precipitation record derived from a combination of Global Precipitation Climatology Center data and satellite observations from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and Global Precipitation Measurement. Then, we examine spatial patterns of precipitation, vegetation greenness, evapotranspiration (ET), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and evaporative stress index (ESI) during the drought years of 2013, 2014, and 2015 relative to a baseline period (2002-2012). We compute wet season (May-October) anomalies for precipitation at 0.25° spatial resolution, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) at 30-m spatial resolution, and ET, PET and ESI derived with the Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model at 1-km spatial resolution. We assess patterns of landscape response across years and land cover types including three kinds of forest (deciduous, old growth, and secondary), grassland, and cropland. Results show that rainfall in Guanacaste reached an all-time low in 2015 over a 64-yr record (wet season SPI = -3.46), resulting in NDVI declines. However, ET and ESI did not show significant anomalies relative to a baseline, drought-free period. Forests in the region exhibited lower water stress compared to grasslands and had smaller declines, and even some increases, in NDVI and ET during the drought period. This work highlights the value of using multiple measures to assess ecosystem responses to drought. It also suggests that agricultural land management has an opportunity to integrate these findings by emulating some of the characteristics of drought-resilient ecosystems in managed systems.

Spatiotemporal transition of institutional and socioeconomic impacts on vegetation productivity in Central Asia over last three decades.

Central Asia experienced substantial institutional and socioeconomic changes during the last few decades, especially the Soviet Union collapse in 1991. It remains unclear how these profound changes impacted vegetation productivity across space and time. This study used the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and gridded climate data to examine the institutional and socioeconomic impacts on vegetation productivity in Central Asia in 1982-2015. The improved Residual Trend (ResTREND) algorithm was used to calculate NDVI residuals (NDVIres) that reflect the impacts of human factors by excluding the influences of multiple climate factors. Our results showed that 45.7% of the vegetated areas experienced significant transitions (p < 0.05) in NDVIres with turning point (TP), of which 83.8% occurred after 1992 except for the Aral Sea Basin. During the pre-TP period, positive NDVIres (i.e., positive impact) and increasing trends (i.e., positive tendency) were predominant, accounting for 31.6% and 16.5% of the vegetated land, respectively. This was attribute to the expanded cultivation due to Virgin Lands Campaign in North Kazakhstan region and the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Basins. However, the institutional and socioeconomic changes largely suppressed vegetation productivity. In the post-TP period, only 7.0% of the vegetated lands experienced an increasing trend in NDVIres, while NDVIres decline accounted for 20.1% of the vegetated areas (p < 0.05), mainly distributed in northern Kazakhstan and large areas in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Basins. Positive transitions resulted from the changes in crop types, decreases in grazing pressure, and increases in water resources, whereas negative transitions were coincident with areas that saw land abandonment, water resource shortages, and soil salinization due to former intensive cultivation. These findings highlight the spatiotemporal changes of institutional and socioeconomic impacts on vegetation productivity in Central Asian dryland and provide implications for future dryland management and restoration efforts.

Natural climate solutions for the United States.

Limiting climate warming to <2°C requires increased mitigation efforts, including land stewardship, whose potential in the United States is poorly understood. We quantified the potential of natural climate solutions (NCS)-21 conservation, restoration, and improved land management interventions on natural and agricultural lands-to increase carbon storage and avoid greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. We found a maximum potential of 1.2 (0.9 to 1.6) Pg CO2e year-1, the equivalent of 21% of current net annual emissions of the United States. At current carbon market prices (USD 10 per Mg CO2e), 299 Tg CO2e year-1 could be achieved. NCS would also provide air and water filtration, flood control, soil health, wildlife habitat, and climate resilience benefits.

Towards physiologically meaningful water-use efficiency estimates from eddy covariance data.

Intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) characterizes the physiological control on the simultaneous exchange of water and carbon dioxide in terrestrial ecosystems. Knowledge of iWUE is commonly gained from leaf-level gas exchange measurements, which are inevitably restricted in their spatial and temporal coverage. Flux measurements based on the eddy covariance (EC) technique can overcome these limitations, as they provide continuous and long-term records of carbon and water fluxes at the ecosystem scale. However, vegetation gas exchange parameters derived from EC data are subject to scale-dependent and method-specific uncertainties that compromise their ecophysiological interpretation as well as their comparability among ecosystems and across spatial scales. Here, we use estimates of canopy conductance and gross primary productivity (GPP) derived from EC data to calculate a measure of iWUE (G1 , "stomatal slope") at the ecosystem level at six sites comprising tropical, Mediterranean, temperate, and boreal forests. We assess the following six mechanisms potentially causing discrepancies between leaf and ecosystem-level estimates of G1 : (i) non-transpirational water fluxes; (ii) aerodynamic conductance; (iii) meteorological deviations between measurement height and canopy surface; (iv) energy balance non-closure; (v) uncertainties in net ecosystem exchange partitioning; and (vi) physiological within-canopy gradients. Our results demonstrate that an unclosed energy balance caused the largest uncertainties, in particular if it was associated with erroneous latent heat flux estimates. The effect of aerodynamic conductance on G1 was sufficiently captured with a simple representation. G1 was found to be less sensitive to meteorological deviations between canopy surface and measurement height and, given that data are appropriately filtered, to non-transpirational water fluxes. Uncertainties in the derived GPP and physiological within-canopy gradients and their implications for parameter estimates at leaf and ecosystem level are discussed. Our results highlight the importance of adequately considering the sources of uncertainty outlined here when EC-derived water-use efficiency is interpreted in an ecophysiological context.

Corrigendum: Recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 due to enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake.

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/ncomms13428.

How do leaf and ecosystem measures of water-use efficiency compare?

The terrestrial carbon and water cycles are intimately linked: the carbon cycle is driven by photosynthesis, while the water balance is dominated by transpiration, and both fluxes are controlled by plant stomatal conductance. The ratio between these fluxes, the plant water-use efficiency (WUE), is a useful indicator of vegetation function. WUE can be estimated using several techniques, including leaf gas exchange, stable isotope discrimination, and eddy covariance. Here we compare global compilations of data for each of these three techniques. We show that patterns of variation in WUE across plant functional types (PFTs) are not consistent among the three datasets. Key discrepancies include the following: leaf-scale data indicate differences between needleleaf and broadleaf forests, but ecosystem-scale data do not; leaf-scale data indicate differences between C3 and C4 species, whereas at ecosystem scale there is a difference between C3 and C4 crops but not grasslands; and isotope-based estimates of WUE are higher than estimates based on gas exchange for most PFTs. Our study quantifies the uncertainty associated with different methods of measuring WUE, indicates potential for bias when using WUE measures to parameterize or validate models, and indicates key research directions needed to reconcile alternative measures of WUE.

Recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 due to enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake.

Terrestrial ecosystems play a significant role in the global carbon cycle and offset a large fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The terrestrial carbon sink is increasing, yet the mechanisms responsible for its enhancement, and implications for the growth rate of atmospheric CO2, remain unclear. Here using global carbon budget estimates, ground, atmospheric and satellite observations, and multiple global vegetation models, we report a recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2, and a decline in the fraction of anthropogenic emissions that remain in the atmosphere, despite increasing anthropogenic emissions. We attribute the observed decline to increases in the terrestrial sink during the past decade, associated with the effects of rising atmospheric CO2 on vegetation and the slowdown in the rate of warming on global respiration. The pause in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate provides further evidence of the roles of CO2 fertilization and warming-induced respiration, and highlights the need to protect both existing carbon stocks and regions, where the sink is growing rapidly.

Large carbon release legacy from bark beetle outbreaks across Western United States.

Warmer conditions over the past two decades have contributed to rapid expansion of bark beetle outbreaks killing millions of trees over a large fraction of western United States (US) forests. These outbreaks reduce plant productivity by killing trees and transfer carbon from live to dead pools where carbon is slowly emitted to the atmosphere via heterotrophic respiration which subsequently feeds back to climate change. Recent studies have begun to examine the local impacts of bark beetle outbreaks in individual stands, but the full regional carbon consequences remain undocumented for the western US. In this study, we quantify the regional carbon impacts of the bark beetle outbreaks taking place in western US forests. The work relies on a combination of postdisturbance forest regrowth trajectories derived from forest inventory data and a process-based carbon cycle model tracking decomposition, as well as aerial detection survey (ADS) data documenting the regional extent and severity of recent outbreaks. We find that biomass killed by bark beetle attacks across beetle-affected areas in western US forests from 2000 to 2009 ranges from 5 to 15 Tg C yr(-1) and caused a reduction of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of about 6.1-9.3 Tg C y(-1) by 2009. Uncertainties result largely from a lack of detailed surveys of the extent and severity of outbreaks, calling out a need for improved characterization across western US forests. The carbon flux legacy of 2000-2009 outbreaks will continue decades into the future (e.g., 2040-2060) as committed emissions from heterotrophic respiration of beetle-killed biomass are balanced by forest regrowth and accumulation.

On the causes of rising gross ecosystem productivity in a regenerating clearcut environment: leaf area vs. species composition.

Clearcutting a forest ecosystem can result in a drastic reduction of stand productivity. Despite the severity of this disturbance type, past studies have found that the productivity of young regenerating stands can quickly rebound, approaching that of mature undisturbed stands within a few years. One of the obvious reasons is increased leaf area (LA) with each year of recovery. However, a less obvious reason may be the variability in species composition and distribution during the natural regeneration process. The purpose of this study was to investigate to what extent the increase in gross ecosystem productivity (GEP), observed during the first 4 years of recovery in a naturally regenerating clearcut stand, was due to (i) an overall expansion of leaf area and (ii) an increase in the canopy's photosynthetic capacity stemming from either species compositional shifts or drift in physiological traits within species. We found that the multi-year rise in GEP following harvest was clearly attributed to the expansion of LA rather than a change in vegetation composition. Sizeable changes in the relative abundance of species were masked by remarkably similar leaf physiological attributes for a range of vegetation types present in this early-successional environment. Comparison of upscaled leaf-chamber estimates with eddy-covariance-based estimates of light-response curves revealed a broad consistency in both maximum photosynthetic capacity and quantum yield efficiency. The approaches presented here illustrate how chamber- and ecosystem-scale measurements of gas exchange can be blended with species-level LA data to draw conclusive inferences about changes in ecosystem processes over time in a highly dynamic environment.

Post-clearcut dynamics of carbon, water and energy exchanges in a midlatitude temperate, deciduous broadleaf forest environment.

Clearcutting and other forest disturbances perturb carbon, water, and energy balances in significant ways, with corresponding influences on Earth's climate system through biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects. Observations are needed to quantify the precise changes in these balances as they vary across diverse disturbances of different types, severities, and in various climate and ecosystem type settings. This study combines eddy covariance and micrometeorological measurements of surface-atmosphere exchanges with vegetation inventories and chamber-based estimates of soil respiration to quantify how carbon, water, and energy fluxes changed during the first 3 years following forest clearing in a temperate forest environment of the northeastern US. We observed rapid recovery with sustained increases in gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) over the first three growing seasons post-clearing, coincident with large and relatively stable net emission of CO2 because of overwhelmingly large ecosystem respiration. The rise in GEP was attributed to vegetation changes not environmental conditions (e.g., weather), but attribution to the expansion of leaf area vs. changes in vegetation composition remains unclear. Soil respiration was estimated to contribute 44% of total ecosystem respiration during summer months and coarse woody debris accounted for another 18%. Evapotranspiration also recovered rapidly and continued to rise across years with a corresponding decrease in sensible heat flux. Gross short-wave and long-wave radiative fluxes were stable across years except for strong wintertime dependence on snow covered conditions and corresponding variation in albedo. Overall, these findings underscore the highly dynamic nature of carbon and water exchanges and vegetation composition during the regrowth following a severe forest disturbance, and sheds light on both the magnitude of such changes and the underlying mechanisms with a unique example from a temperate, deciduous broadleaf forest.

Protecting the Public from H1N1 through Points of Dispensing (PODs).

In fall 2009, the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DOHMH) operated 58 points of dispensing (PODs) over 5 weekends to provide influenza A (H1N1) 2009 monovalent vaccination to New Yorkers. Up to 7 sites were opened each day across the 5 boroughs, with almost 50,000 New Yorkers being vaccinated. The policies and protocols used were based on those developed for New York City's POD Plan, the cornerstone of the city's mass prophylaxis planning. Before the H1N1 experience, NYC had not opened more than 5 PODs simultaneously and had only experienced the higher patient volume seen with the H1N1 PODs on 1 prior occasion. Therefore, DOHMH identified factors that contributed to the success of POD operations, as well as areas for improvement to inform future mass prophylaxis planning and response. Though this was a relatively small-scale, preplanned operation, during which a maximum of 7 PODs were operated on a given day, the findings have implications for larger-scale mass prophylaxis planning for emergencies.

Toxic epidermal necrolysis induced by sulfonamide eyedrops.

PURPOSE: To describe a case of toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN) triggered by sulfonamide eyedrops. METHODS: A 9-year-old white boy with type I diabetes developed fever, constitutional symptoms, and a widespread blistering rash within hours of beginning a course of sulfonamide eyedrops for conjunctivitis. The patient was intubated and treated with broad-spectrum antibiotics and systemic and topical corticosteroids. RESULTS: The patient survived and has bilateral acuities of 20/30 at 12 months of follow-up. Pathological examination of a skin biopsy sample confirmed the diagnosis of TEN. CONCLUSIONS: TEN is a rare but life-threatening side effect of topical sulfonamide eyedrops.

Africa and the global carbon cycle.

The African continent has a large and growing role in the global carbon cycle, with potentially important climate change implications. However, the sparse observation network in and around the African continent means that Africa is one of the weakest links in our understanding of the global carbon cycle. Here, we combine data from regional and global inventories as well as forward and inverse model analyses to appraise what is known about Africa's continental-scale carbon dynamics. With low fossil emissions and productivity that largely compensates respiration, land conversion is Africa's primary net carbon release, much of it through burning of forests. Savanna fire emissions, though large, represent a short-term source that is offset by ensuing regrowth. While current data suggest a near zero decadal-scale carbon balance, interannual climate fluctuations (especially drought) induce sizeable variability in net ecosystem productivity and savanna fire emissions such that Africa is a major source of interannual variability in global atmospheric CO2. Considering the continent's sizeable carbon stocks, their seemingly high vulnerability to anticipated climate and land use change, as well as growing populations and industrialization, Africa's carbon emissions and their interannual variability are likely to undergo substantial increases through the 21st century.

The HIV-1 Tat protein enhances megakaryocytic commitment of K562 cells by facilitating CREB transcription factor coactivation by CBP.

The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) Tat protein regulates transcription factor functions and alters cellular gene expression. Because hematopoietic progenitor cell (HPC) differentiation requires activation of lineage-specific transcription factors, Tat may affect hematopoiesis in HIV-1-infected micro-environments. We have monitored the molecular effects of Tat on megakaryocytic differentiation in the HPC line, K562. Flow cytometry analysis of CD61 indicated that phorbol myristate acetate (PMA) (16 nM) stimulated megakaryocytic commitment of K562 cells was increased (3- to 4-fold) following exposure to Tat (1-100 ng/ml). Activation of the megakaryocytic transcription factor cAMP regulatory element binding protein (CREB) and its coactivation by the CREB binding protein (CBP) was subsequently monitored. CREB phosphorylation and DNA binding were measured by Western immunodetection and electrophoretic mobility shift assays (EMSA), respectively. Within 2 hrs after stimulation, Tat increased both CREB phosphorylation and DNA binding by 7- to 10-fold. Transient cotransfection with CREB reporter and CBP expression plasmids demonstrated that Tat treatment increases (3- to 4-fold) both PMA-stimulated and CBP-mediated transcription via the cAMP regulatory element. Histone acetyl transferase (HAT) activity was increased (8- to 10-fold) in Tat-stimulated cells, which suggested increased chromosomal accessibility of transcription factors. Two-hybrid cotransfection assays using reporter plasmid containing the GAL4 DNA-binding domain and expression plasmid coding for the GAL4-CBP fusion protein, showed that Tat increases (2-fold) CBP-mediated coactivation of CREB. Both reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and Western blot analysis showed that Tat treatment increases CBP gene expression (7- to 9-fold) and protein levels (5- to 7-fold) within 6-12 hrs after stimulation. Our findings indicated that Tat treatment increases both CREB function and CREB coactivation by CBP, which may facilitate megakaryocytic commitment of K562 cells. Induction of this molecular signaling by HIV-1 Tat protein may have relevance in understanding the HIV-induced hematologic manifestations and possibly in regulation of viral infectivity parameters in progenitor cell reservoirs.