Health economic assessment of a scenario to promote bicycling as active transport in Stockholm, Sweden.

OBJECTIVES: To conduct a health economic evaluation of a proposed investment in urban bicycle infrastructure in Stockholm County, Sweden. DESIGN: A cost-effectiveness analysis is undertaken from a healthcare perspective. Investment costs over a 50-year life cycle are offset by averted healthcare costs and compared with estimated long-term impacts on morbidity, quantified in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The results are re-calculated under different assumptions to model the effects of uncertainty. SETTING: The Municipality of Stockholm (population 2.27 million) committed funds for bicycle path infrastructure with the aim of achieving a 15% increase in the number of bicycle commuters by 2030. This work is based on a previously constructed scenario, in which individual registry data on home and work address and a transport model allocation to different modes of transport identified 111 487 individuals with the physical capacity to bicycle to work within 30 min but that currently drive a car to work. RESULTS: Morbidity impacts and healthcare costs attributed to increased physical activity, change in air pollution exposure and accident risk are quantified under the scenario. The largest reduction in healthcare costs is attributed to increased physical activity and the second largest to reduced air pollution exposure among the population of Greater Stockholm. The expected net benefit from the investment is 8.7% of the 2017 Stockholm County healthcare budget, and 3.7% after discounting. The economic evaluation estimates that the intervention is cost-effective and each DALY averted gives a surplus of €9933. The results remained robust under varied assumptions pertaining to reduced numbers of additional bicycle commuters. CONCLUSION: Investing in urban infrastructure to increase bicycling as active transport is cost-effective from a healthcare sector perspective.

Universal health coverage in emerging economies: findings on health care utilization by older adults in China, Ghana, India, Mexico, the Russian Federation, and South Africa.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The achievement of universal health coverage (UHC) in emerging economies is a high priority within the global community. This timely study uses standardized national population data collected from adults aged 50 and older in China, Ghana, India, Mexico, the Russian Federation, and South Africa. The objective is to describe health care utilization and measure association between inpatient and outpatient service use and patient characteristics in these six low- and middle-income countries. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of data from the World Health Organization's Study on global AGEing and adult health Wave 1 was undertaken. Country samples are compared by socio-demographic characteristics, type of health care, and reasons for use. Logistic regressions describe association between socio-demographic and health factors and inpatient and outpatient service use. RESULTS: In the pooled multi-country sample of over 26,000 adults aged 50-plus, who reported getting health care the last time it was needed, almost 80% of men and women received inpatient or outpatient care, or both. Roughly 30% of men and women in the Russian Federation used inpatient services in the previous 3 years and 90% of men and women in India used outpatient services in the past year. In China, public hospitals were the most frequently used service type for 52% of men and 51% of women. Multivariable regression showed that, compared with men, women were less likely to use inpatient services and more likely to use outpatient services. Respondents with two or more chronic conditions were almost three times as likely to use inpatient services and twice as likely to use outpatient services compared with respondents with no reported chronic conditions. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a basis for further investigation of country-specific responses to UHC.

A case-control study of risk factors for fetal and early neonatal deaths in a tertiary hospital in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: It is important to understand the risk factors for fetal and neonatal mortality which is a major contributor to high under five deaths globally. Fetal and neonatal mortality is a sensitive indicator of maternal health in society. This study aimed to examine the risk factors for fetal and early neonatal mortality at the Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital in Kenya. METHODS: This was a case-control study. Cases were fetal and early neonatal deaths (n = 200). The controls were infants born alive immediately preceding and following the cases (n = 400). Bivariate comparisons and multiple logistic regression analyses were undertaken. RESULTS: The odds of having 0-1 antenatal visits relative to 2-3 visits were higher for cases than controls (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 4.5; 95% CI: 1.2-16.7; p = 0.03)). There were lower odds among cases of having a doctor rather than a midwife as a birth attendant (AOR = 0.2; 95% CI: 0.1-0.6; p < 0.01). The odds of mothers having Premature Rupture of Membranes (AOR = 4.1; 95% CI: 1.4-12.1; p = 0.01), haemorrhage (AOR = 4.8; 95% CI: 1.1-21.9; p = 0.04) and dystocia (AOR = 3.6; 95% CI: 1.2-10.9; p = 0.02) were higher for the cases compared with the controls. The odds of gestational age less than 37 weeks (AOR = 7.0; 95% CI 2.4-20.4) and above 42 weeks (AOR = 16.2; 95% CI 2.8-92.3) compared to 37-42 weeks, were higher for cases relative to controls (p < 0.01). Cases had higher odds of being born with congenital malformations (AOR = 6.3; 95% CI: 1.2-31.6; p = 0.04) and with Apgar scores of below six at five minutes (AOR = 26.4; 95% CI: 6.1-113.8; p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Interventions that focus on educating mothers on antenatal attendance, screening, monitoring and management of maternal conditions during the antenatal period should be strengthened. Doctor attendance at each birth and for emergency admissions is important to ensure early neonatal survival and avert potential risk factors for mortality.

Risk factors for maternal mortality in a Tertiary Hospital in Kenya: a case control study.

BACKGROUND: Maternal mortality is high in Africa, especially in Kenya where there is evidence of insufficient progress towards Millennium Development Goal (MDG) Five, which is to reduce the global maternal mortality rate by three quarters and provide universal access to reproductive health by 2015. This study aims to identify risk factors associated with maternal mortality in a tertiary level hospital in Kenya. METHODS: A manual review of records for 150 maternal deaths (cases) and 300 controls was undertaken using a standard audit form. The sample included pregnant women aged 15-49 years admitted to the Obstetric and Gynaecological wards at the Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital (MTRH) in Kenya from January 2004 and March 2011. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess risk factors for maternal mortality. RESULTS: Factors significantly associated with maternal mortality included: having no education relative to secondary education (OR 3.3, 95% CI 1.1-10.4, p = 0.0284), history of underlying medical conditions (OR 3.9, 95% CI 1.7-9.2, p = 0.0016), doctor attendance at birth (OR 4.6, 95% CI 2.1-10.1, p = 0.0001), having no antenatal visits (OR 4.1, 95% CI 1.6-10.4, p = 0.0007), being admitted with eclampsia (OR 10.9, 95% CI 3.7-31.9, p < 0.0001), being admitted with comorbidities (OR 9.0, 95% CI 4.2-19.3, p < 0.0001), having an elevated pulse on admission (OR 10.7, 95% CI 2.7-43.4, p = 0.0002), and being referred to MTRH (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.0-4.3, p = 0.0459). CONCLUSIONS: Antenatal care and maternal education are important risk factors for maternal mortality, even after adjusting for comorbidities and complications. Antenatal visits can provide opportunities for detecting risk factors for eclampsia, and other underlying illnesses but the visits need to be frequent and timely. Education enables access to information and helps empower women and their spouses to make appropriate decisions during pregnancy.

The impact of socioeconomic status on changes in the general and mental health of women over time: evidence from a longitudinal study of Australian women.

INTRODUCTION: Generally, men and women of higher socioeconomic status (SES) have better health. Little is known about how socioeconomic factors are associated with changes in health as women progress through mid-life. This study uses data from six survey waves (1996 to 2010) of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH) to examine associations between SES and changes in the general health and mental health of a cohort of women progressing in years from 45-50 to 59-64. METHODS: Participants were 12,709 women (born 1946-51) in the ALSWH. Outcome measures were the general health and mental health subscales of the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36 Questionnaire (SF-36). The measure of SES was derived from factor analysis of responses to questions in the ALSWH baseline survey (1996) on school leaving age, highest qualifications, and current or last occupation. Multi-level random coefficient models, adjusted for socio-demographic factors and health behaviors, were used to analyze repeated measures of general health and mental health. Survey year accounted for changes in factors across time. In the first set of analyses we investigated associations between the SES index, used as a "continuous" variable, and general health and mental health changes over time. To illuminate the impact of different levels of SES on health, a second analysis was conducted in which SES scores were grouped into three approximately equal sized categories or "tertiles" as reported in an earlier ALSWH study. The least square means of general and mental health scores from the longitudinal models were plotted for the three SES tertiles. RESULTS: The longitudinal analysis showed that, after adjusting for the effects of time and possible confounders, the general (mental) health of this cohort of mid-aged women declined (increased) over time. Higher SES women reported better health than lower SES women, and SES significantly modified the effects of time on both general and mental health in favor of higher SES women. CONCLUSIONS: This study contributes to our current understanding of how socioeconomic and demographic factors, health behaviors and time impact on changes in the general and mental health of women progressing in years from 45-50 to 59-64.

Social determinants of sex differences in disability among older adults: a multi-country decomposition analysis using the World Health Survey.

INTRODUCTION: Women represent a growing proportion of older people and experience increasing disability in their longer lives. Using a universally agreed definition of disability based on the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health, this paper examines how, apart from age, social and economic factors contribute to disability differences between older men and women. METHODS: World Health Survey data were analyzed from 57 countries drawn from all income groups defined by the World Bank. The final sample comprises 63638 respondents aged 50 and older (28568 males and 35070 females). Item Response Theory was applied to derive a measure of disability which ensured cross country comparability. Individuals with scores at or above a threshold score were those who experienced significant difficulty in their everyday lives, irrespective of the underlying etiology. The population was then divided into "disabled" vs. "not disabled". We firstly computed disability prevalence for males and females by socio-demographic factors, secondly used multiple logistic regression to estimate the adjusted effects of each social determinant on disability for males and females, and thirdly used a variant of the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition technique to partition the measured inequality in disability between males and females into the "explained" part that arises because of differences between males and females in terms of age and social and economic characteristics, and an "unexplained" part attributed to the differential effects of these characteristics. RESULTS: Prevalence of disability among women compared with men aged 50+ years was 40.1% vs. 23.8%. Lower levels of education and economic status are associated with disability in women and men. Approximately 45% of the sex inequality in disability can be attributed to differences in the distribution of socio-demographic factors. Approximately 55% of the inequality results from differences in the effects of the determinants. CONCLUSIONS: There is an urgent need for data and methodologies that can identify how social, biological and other factors separately contribute to the health decrements facing men and women as they age. This study highlights the need for action to address social structures and institutional practices that impact unfairly on the health of older men and women.

Assessing the suitability of fractional polynomial methods in health services research: a perspective on the categorization epidemic.

OBJECTIVE: To show how fractional polynomial methods can usefully replace the practice of arbitrarily categorizing data in epidemiology and health services research. METHODS: A health service setting is used to illustrate a structured and transparent way of representing non-linear data without arbitrary grouping. RESULTS: When age is a regressor its effects on an outcome will be interpreted differently depending upon the placing of cutpoints or the use of a polynomial transformation. CONCLUSIONS: Although it is common practice, categorization comes at a cost. Information is lost, and accuracy and statistical power reduced, leading to spurious statistical interpretation of the data. The fractional polynomial method is widely supported by statistical software programs, and deserves greater attention and use.