High-density lipoprotein cholesterol as an indicator of liver function and prognosis in noncholestatic cirrhotics.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The liver plays a central role in production and degradation of lipoproteins. Declining lipoprotein cholesterol may reflect deteriorating liver function. METHODS: We reviewed the records of 248 veterans with noncholestatic cirrhosis followed in our clinics or referred for liver transplantation between January 1, 1997 and October 31, 2002 (analysis period) and confirmed our findings prospectively in 165 noncholestatic cirrhotic veterans newly referred for liver transplantation between November 1, 2002 and May 1, 2004 (validation period). RESULTS: In the analysis group, albumin, bilirubin, INR, and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score correlated strongly with high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, weakly but significantly with total cholesterol and very-low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (VLDL), and poorly with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL). Transplant-free mortality at 90, 180, and 365 days was 17/201 (8.5%), 19/173 (11.0%), and 38/119 (31.9%), respectively. Death at all 3 time points was associated with significantly lower initial levels of HDL, VLDL, and total cholesterol, but not LDL cholesterol. Of the lipoproteins, HDL was the best predictor of survival at 180 and 365 days (concordance statistics .86+/-.05 and .78+/-.05, respectively). By multivariate logistic regression, HDL cholesterol and MELD score were independent predictors of survival at 6 and 12 months. By Cox regression, HDL cholesterol below 30 mg/dL was associated with 3.4-fold increase in the hazard ratio for cirrhotic death. In the validation period, HDL cholesterol was confirmed to be significantly associated with death or transplantation at 6 or 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: HDL cholesterol in noncholestatic cirrhotic patients is a liver function test and an indicator of prognosis.

Persistent ascites and low serum sodium identify patients with cirrhosis and low MELD scores who are at high risk for early death.

Despite the adoption of "sickest first" liver transplantation, pretransplant death remains common, and many early deaths occur despite initially low Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores. From 1997-2003, we studied 507 cirrhotic United States veterans referred for consideration of liver transplantation to identify additional predictors of early mortality. Most of the patients were male (98%) with cirrhosis caused by hepatitis C and/or alcohol (88%). Data for 296 patients referred prior to February 27, 2002 (training group), were analyzed; findings were validated in 211 patients referred subsequently (validation group). In the training group, 61 patients (21%) died within 180 days without transplantation; their median initial MELD score was 21. MELD score, persistent ascites, and low serum sodium (<135 meq/L) were independent predictors of early mortality. In patients with a MELD score of less than 21, only low serum sodium and persistent ascites were independent predictors of mortality; for MELD scores above 21, only MELD was independently predictive. Prognostic significance of persistent ascites and low serum sodium for low MELD score patients was confirmed in the validation group. Risk varied continuously with worsening hyponatremia. Modifying MELD, by including points for persistent ascites and low serum sodium, improved prediction of early pretransplant mortality in low MELD score patients. In conclusion, persistent ascites and low serum sodium identify patients with cirrhosis with high mortality risk despite low MELD scores. Ascites, hyponatremia, and other findings indicative of hemodynamic decompensation merit further prospective study as prognostic indicators in patients awaiting liver transplantation, and should be considered in setting minimal listing criteria.