Population-level impact of adjuvant trastuzumab emtansine on the incidence of metastatic breast cancer: an epidemiological prediction model of women with HER2-positive early breast cancer and residual disease following neoadjuvant therapy.

PURPOSE: Treating early-stage breast cancer (eBC) may delay or prevent subsequent metastatic breast cancer (mBC). In the phase 3 KATHERINE study, women with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive eBC with residual disease following neoadjuvant therapy containing trastuzumab and a taxane experienced 50% reductions in disease recurrence or death when treated with adjuvant trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1) vs adjuvant trastuzumab. We predicted the population-level impact of adjuvant T-DM1 on mBC occurrence in five European countries (EU5) and Canada from 2021-2030. METHODS: An epidemiological prediction model using data from national cancer registries, observational studies, and clinical trials was developed. Assuming 80% population-level uptake of adjuvant treatment, KATHERINE data were extrapolated prospectively to model projections. Robustness was evaluated in alternative scenarios. RESULTS: We projected an eligible population of 116,335 women in Canada and the EU5 who may be diagnosed with HER2-positive eBC and have residual disease following neoadjuvant therapy from 2021-2030. In EU5, the cumulative number of women projected to experience relapsed mBC over the 10-year study period was 36,009 vs 27,143 under adjuvant trastuzumab vs T-DM1, a difference of 8,866 women, equivalent to 25% fewer cases with the use of adjuvant T-DM1 in EU5 countries from 2021-2030. Findings were similar for Canada. CONCLUSION: Our models predicted greater reductions in the occurrence of relapsed mBC with adjuvant T-DM1 vs trastuzumab in the indicated populations in EU5 and Canada. Introduction of T-DM1 has the potential to reduce population-level disease burden of HER2-positive mBC in the geographies studied.

RWD-derived response in multiple myeloma.

Real-world data (RWD) are important for understanding the treatment course and response patterns of patients with multiple myeloma. This exploratory pilot study establishes a way to reliably assess response from incomplete laboratory measurements captured in RWD. A rule-based algorithm, adapted from International Myeloma Working Group response criteria, was used to derive response using RWD. This derived response (dR) algorithm was assessed using data from the phase III BELLINI trial, comparing the number of responders and non-responders assigned by independent review committee (IRC) versus the dR algorithm. To simulate a real-world scenario with missing data, a sensitivity analysis was conducted whereby available laboratory measurements in the dataset were artificially reduced. Associations between dR and overall survival were evaluated at 1) individual level and 2) treatment level in a real-world patient cohort obtained from a nationwide electronic health record-derived de-identified database. The algorithm's assignment of responders was highly concordant with that of the IRC (Cohen's Kappa 0.83) using the BELLINI data. The dR replicated the differences in overall response rate between the intervention and placebo arms reported in the trial (odds ratio 2.1 vs. 2.3 for IRC vs. dR assessment, respectively). Simulation of missing data in the sensitivity analysis (-50% of available laboratory measurements and -75% of urine monoclonal protein measurements) resulted in a minor reduction in the algorithm's accuracy (Cohen's Kappa 0.75). In the RWD cohort, dR was significantly associated with overall survival at all landmark times (hazard ratios 0.80-0.81, p<0.001) at the individual level, while the overall association was R2 = 0.67 (p<0.001) at the treatment level. This exploratory pilot study demonstrates the feasibility of deriving accurate response from RWD. With further confirmation in independent cohorts, the dR has the potential to be used as an endpoint in real-world studies and as a comparator in single-arm clinical trials.

Clinical characteristics and overall survival among acute myeloid leukemia patients with TP53 gene mutation or chromosome 17p deletion.

Approximately 5% to 15% of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients have TP53 gene mutations (TP53m), which are associated with very poor outcomes. Adults (≥18 years) with a new AML diagnosis were included from a nationwide, de-identified, real-world database. Patients receiving first-line therapy were divided into three cohorts: venetoclax (VEN) + hypomethylating agents (HMAs; Cohort A), intensive chemotherapy (Cohort B), or HMA without VEN (Cohort C). A total of 370 newly diagnosed AML patients with TP53m (n = 124), chromosome 17p deletion (n = 166), or both (n = 80) were included. The median age was 72 years (range, 24-84); most were male (59%) and White (69%). Baseline bone marrow (BM) blasts were ≤30%, 31%-50%, and >50% in 41%, 24%, and 29% of patients in Cohorts A, B, and C, respectively. BM remission (<5% blasts) with first-line therapy was reported in 54% of patients (115/215) overall, and 67% (38/57), 62% (68/110), and 19% (9/48) for respective cohorts (median BM remission duration: 6.3, 6.9, and 5.4 months). Median overall survival (95% CI) was 7.4 months (6.0-8.8) for Cohort A, 9.4 months (7.2-10.4) for Cohort B, and 5.9 months (4.3-7.5) for Cohort C. There were no differences in survival by treatment type after adjusting for the effects of relevant covariates (Cohort A vs. C adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 0.9; 95% CI, 0.7-1.3; Cohort A vs. B aHR = 1.0; 95% CI, 0.7-1.5; and Cohort C vs. B aHR = 1.1; 95% CI, 0.8-1.6). Patients with TP53m AML have dismal outcomes with current therapies, demonstrating the high unmet need for improved treatments.

Front-line treatment patterns in multiple myeloma: An analysis of U.S.-based electronic health records from 2011 to 2019.

Multiple myeloma (MM) treatment options have evolved rapidly, but how new agents are incorporated into treatment decisions in current practice is not well understood. This study examined prescribing trends of physicians treating newly diagnosed MM and treatment outcomes in the United States. Electronic health record data from 6271 adult patients diagnosed with MM and receiving initial treatment between 1 January 2011 and 31 January 2020 were derived from the Flatiron Health electronic-health record de-identified database. The number/types of agents included in therapy regimens, time to next treatment (TTNT), and overall survival (OS) were assessed. Subgroups were analyzed by the International Staging System (ISS) disease stage at diagnosis, stem cell transplant eligibility and timing, and practice type. Exploratory prognostic models evaluated the association between baseline covariates and time-to-event outcomes. The proportion of patients receiving triplet therapies increased from 2011 (36%) to 2019 (72%) as those receiving initial monotherapy or doublet therapy decreased. Overall, the most prevalent triplet regimen consisted of an immunomodulatory drug (IMiD), a proteasome inhibitor, and a steroid. From 2017 to 2019, median TTNT from front-line to second-line was longer in patients with ISS stage I versus stages II/III, and in those receiving IMiD-containing doublet or triplet therapies versus other combinations. Overall median OS was 56 months and increased from 2011 to 2014, after which median OS was not yet reached. Age, ISS stage, and high-risk status were prognostic for both OS and TTNT, while sex, practice type, and ECOG status were prognostic for OS only.