Lion and spotted hyena distributions within a buffer area of the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem.

Most large carnivore populations are declining due to anthropogenic activities including direct persecution, prey depletion, habitat loss and degradation. protected areas (PAs) can help maintain viable large carnivore populations; however, anthropogenic activities occurring near and within PA borders or edges can reduce their effectiveness. We investigated the influence of edge effects on abundance of lions (Panthera leo) and spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta) in Maswa Game Reserve (MGR), a part of the Serengeti ecosystem in northern Tanzania. We conducted repeated call-ins to attract and enumerate lions and hyenas at 20 stations in MGR during June-July 2017. We used N-mixture models to estimate hyena and lion abundance in relation to land cover and distance from the south-western MGR borders which are adjacent to villages. We found lowest lion and hyena abundances by the south-western border, with abundance of both species increasing toward the eastern border adjacent to Serengeti National Park. Lions were uniformly distributed among land covers whereas hyenas were more abundant in woodlands. We suggest that reduced lion and hyena abundance near human settlements was in response to depleted prey, due to human actions. We recommend ecologically compatible land uses and effective border patrols to mitigate these adverse effects.

Marginal support for a trophic cascade among sympatric canids in peripheral wolf range.

Trophic cascades reportedly structure ecological communities through indirect species interactions. Though the predator-herbivore-autotroph relationship has received much attention, mechanistic evidence supporting intraguild trophic cascades is rare. We established 348 remote camera sites (1 August-5 September 2019) across seven study areas of varying wolf (Canis lupus) density including one study area where wolves were absent in northern Michigan, USA. Using multi-species occupancy modeling at species-relevant spatial scales, we evaluated the hypothesis that increased wolf occurrence suppresses coyote (C. latrans) occurrence with corresponding increased red fox (Vulpes vulpes) occurrence mediated by land cover edge density, human presence, and temporal partitioning. Remote cameras recorded >600,000 images and included 6,370, 10,137, and 4,876 detections of wolves, coyotes, and foxes, respectively. Fox occupancy probability was more than three times as high (0.29) at camera sites where wolves were present, relative to sites wolves were absent (0.09). Pairwise species interactions supported expected size-based dominance patterns among canids and insignificant effects were directionally consistent with reported reduced strength of top-down effects in peripheral wolf range. Increased edge density also increased co-occurrence of coyote and wolves, likely a function of increased prey availability and refugia for coyotes. Though foxes occurred in spatial proximity to wolves, competition was limited by greater temporal partitioning than observed between coyotes and foxes that were spatially segregated. Collectively, our results provide marginal support for the reported trophic cascade among wolves, coyotes, and foxes wherein top-down effects may be reduced near the edge of current wolf distributions. As predators continue to recolonize portions of their historic range, knowledge of the effects on intraguild predators has implications for species management and predicting prey population responses.

Factors influencing exotic species richness in Argentina's national parks.

Exotic species introductions are a global phenomenon and protected areas are susceptible to them. Understanding the drivers of exotic species richness is vital for prioritizing natural resource management, particularly in developing countries with limited resources. We analyzed the influence of coarse resolution factors on exotic species richness (plants, mammals, and birds) in Argentina's National Parks System. We collected data on native species richness, year of park formation, park area, region, elevation range, number of rivers crossing area boundaries, roads entering area, mean annual rainfall, mean annual temperature, mean annual number of visitors, and Human Influence Index within and surrounding each park. We compiled 1,688 exotic records in 36 protected areas: 83% plants and 17% animals (9.5% mammals, 5.5% birds, 1.5% fishes, 0% amphibians, 0% reptiles). The five parks with the most exotic species (all taxa combined) were in north Patagonia. Exotic grasses were the most common exotic plants, and within animals, lagomorphs and feral ungulates were remarkably widespread. Exotic plant richness was mostly influenced by temperature and native plant richness, while exotic mammal and bird richness was driven mostly by anthropogenic variables, with models explaining 36-45% of data deviance. Most variables that positively influenced exotic taxa were indirectly related to an increase in spatial heterogeneity (natural or anthropogenic), suggesting greater niche space variability as facilitators of exotic richness increase. Additional data are needed to further investigate the patterns and mechanisms of exotic species richness in protected areas, which will help to prioritize the greatest needs of monitoring and management.

Estimating Lion Abundance using N-mixture Models for Social Species.

Declining populations of large carnivores worldwide, and the complexities of managing human-carnivore conflicts, require accurate population estimates of large carnivores to promote their long-term persistence through well-informed management We used N-mixture models to estimate lion (Panthera leo) abundance from call-in and track surveys in southeastern Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. Because of potential habituation to broadcasted calls and social behavior, we developed a hierarchical observation process within the N-mixture model conditioning lion detectability on their group response to call-ins and individual detection probabilities. We estimated 270 lions (95% credible interval = 170-551) using call-ins but were unable to estimate lion abundance from track data. We found a weak negative relationship between predicted track density and predicted lion abundance from the call-in surveys. Luminosity was negatively correlated with individual detection probability during call-in surveys. Lion abundance and track density were influenced by landcover, but direction of the corresponding effects were undetermined. N-mixture models allowed us to incorporate multiple parameters (e.g., landcover, luminosity, observer effect) influencing lion abundance and probability of detection directly into abundance estimates. We suggest that N-mixture models employing a hierarchical observation process can be used to estimate abundance of other social, herding, and grouping species.

Trap array configuration influences estimates and precision of black bear density and abundance.

Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models have advanced our ability to estimate population density for wide ranging animals by explicitly incorporating individual movement. Though these models are more robust to various spatial sampling designs, few studies have empirically tested different large-scale trap configurations using SCR models. We investigated how extent of trap coverage and trap spacing affects precision and accuracy of SCR parameters, implementing models using the R package secr. We tested two trapping scenarios, one spatially extensive and one intensive, using black bear (Ursus americanus) DNA data from hair snare arrays in south-central Missouri, USA. We also examined the influence that adding a second, lower barbed-wire strand to snares had on quantity and spatial distribution of detections. We simulated trapping data to test bias in density estimates of each configuration under a range of density and detection parameter values. Field data showed that using multiple arrays with intensive snare coverage produced more detections of more individuals than extensive coverage. Consequently, density and detection parameters were more precise for the intensive design. Density was estimated as 1.7 bears per 100 km2 and was 5.5 times greater than that under extensive sampling. Abundance was 279 (95% CI = 193-406) bears in the 16,812 km2 study area. Excluding detections from the lower strand resulted in the loss of 35 detections, 14 unique bears, and the largest recorded movement between snares. All simulations showed low bias for density under both configurations. Results demonstrated that in low density populations with non-uniform distribution of population density, optimizing the tradeoff among snare spacing, coverage, and sample size is of critical importance to estimating parameters with high precision and accuracy. With limited resources, allocating available traps to multiple arrays with intensive trap spacing increased the amount of information needed to inform parameters with high precision.

Influence of drift and admixture on population structure of American black bears (Ursus americanus) in the Central Interior Highlands, USA, 50 years after translocation.

Bottlenecks, founder events, and genetic drift often result in decreased genetic diversity and increased population differentiation. These events may follow abundance declines due to natural or anthropogenic perturbations, where translocations may be an effective conservation strategy to increase population size. American black bears (Ursus americanus) were nearly extirpated from the Central Interior Highlands, USA by 1920. In an effort to restore bears, 254 individuals were translocated from Minnesota, USA, and Manitoba, Canada, into the Ouachita and Ozark Mountains from 1958 to 1968. Using 15 microsatellites and mitochondrial haplotypes, we observed contemporary genetic diversity and differentiation between the source and supplemented populations. We inferred four genetic clusters: Source, Ouachitas, Ozarks, and a cluster in Missouri where no individuals were translocated. Coalescent models using approximate Bayesian computation identified an admixture model as having the highest posterior probability (0.942) over models where the translocation was unsuccessful or acted as a founder event. Nuclear genetic diversity was highest in the source (AR = 9.11) and significantly lower in the translocated populations (AR = 7.07-7.34; P = 0.004). The Missouri cluster had the lowest genetic diversity (AR = 5.48) and served as a natural experiment showing the utility of translocations to increase genetic diversity following demographic bottlenecks. Differentiation was greater between the two admixed populations than either compared to the source, suggesting that genetic drift acted strongly over the eight generations since the translocation. The Ouachitas and Missouri were previously hypothesized to be remnant lineages. We observed a pretranslocation remnant signature in Missouri but not in the Ouachitas.