Transitioning to adulthood: Are conventional benchmarks as protective today as they were in the past?

More young adults in the United States are studying beyond high school and working full-time than in the past, yet young adults continue to have high poverty rates as they transition to adulthood. This study uses longitudinal data on two cohorts of young adults from the 1979 and 1997 National Longitudinal Study of Youth to assess whether conventional benchmarks associated with economic success-gaining an education, finding stable employment, and delaying childbirth until after marriage-are as predictive of reduced poverty today as they were in the past. We also explore differences in the protective effect of the benchmarks by race/ethnicity, gender, and poverty status while young. We find that, on average, the benchmarks associated with economic success are as predictive of reduced poverty among young adults today as they were for the prior generation; however, demographics and features of the economy have contributed to higher poverty rates among today's young adults.

Early Effects of the New York City Paid Safe and Sick Leave Law.

CONTEXT: Paid sick leave (PSL) is a public health strategy associated with benefits for workers, businesses, and consumers. In the absence of a federal law, in 2014, New York City (NYC) joined other state and municipal governments with local PSL policies. OBJECTIVES: To examine changes in PSL after the implementation of NYC's 2014 Paid Safe and Sick Leave Law and to assess which communities remain less likely to use PSL. DESIGN: This study uses data from multiple panels of the NYC Longitudinal Survey of Wellbeing (NYC-LSW)-a population-representative study of NYC adults-to track changes in PSL, using data collected before and after NYC's Paid Safe and Sick Leave Law was implemented. We use weighted cross-tabulations and multinomial logistic regression models to assess changes in payment for sick leave since the implementation of the law. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The study includes 2985 NYC adults aged 18 to 64 years who reported working for pay in the year preceding the survey where PSL questions were asked (2014-2019). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Use of sick leave and payment for sick leave. RESULTS: Weighted descriptive results show a 7-percentage-point increase ( P = .02) in the rate of being paid for all sick days and a 6-percentage-point decrease ( P = .02) in not being paid for any sick days. Results from multinomial logistic regression models, adjusting for potential confounders, show that after implementation of the law, workers with low levels of education, who are younger, Latino, and foreign-born remain less likely than their peers to use PSL. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that the PSL mandate expanded access for employees but not evenly across groups. These results offer guidance to other jurisdictions implementing PSL policies, suggesting the need for targeted education and enforcement efforts to ensure policies reach sectors where low-wage workers are most prevalent.

Experiences of Poverty Around the Time of a Birth: A Research Note.

While research highlights that, on average, women's income and labor force participation fall around the time of a birth, little is known about how women's experiences of poverty around childbirth vary by birth parity or race and ethnicity. Using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation and the Supplemental Poverty Measure (a comprehensive measure of poverty), this research note examines the poverty rate of mothers overall and by birth parity and racial and ethnic group in the six months before and after childbirth. We also assess the role of current government support programs in moderating financial losses during the time around a birth. We find that poverty rates among mothers increase after childbirth, with the magnitude varying by birth parity and racial and ethnic group. While current government programs help reduce poverty among mothers around childbirth, these programs do not protect mothers from falling into poverty after childbirth nor do they reduce the inequities in poverty by race or ethnicity. Our results highlight the need for greater public assistance for mothers with recent births to ensure improved child and family well-being and also call attention to the need for policies to address long-standing racial and ethnic inequities in child and family well-being.

Association Between Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Use and Memory Decline: Findings From the Health and Retirement Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Studies on the effect of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) on the cognitive health of older adults are scarce. We sought to examine the associations between SNAP use and memory decline among SNAP-eligible US older adults. METHODS: Participants aged 50+ years and SNAP-eligible in 1996 from the Health and Retirement Study were included. Participants' SNAP eligibility was constructed using federal criteria. Participants also self-reported whether they used SNAP. Memory function was assessed biennially from 1996 through 2016 using a composite score. To account for preexisting differences in characteristics between SNAP users and nonusers, we modeled the probability of SNAP use using demographic and health covariates. Using linear mixed-effects models, we then modeled trajectories of memory function for SNAP users and nonusers using inverse probability (IP) weighting and propensity score (PS) matching techniques. In all models, we accounted for study attrition. RESULTS: Of the 3,555 SNAP-eligible participants, a total of 15.7% were SNAP users. At baseline, SNAP users had lower socioeconomic status and a greater number of chronic conditions than nonusers and were more likely to be lost to follow-up. Our multivariable IP-weighted models suggested that SNAP users had worse memory scores at baseline but slower rates of memory decline compared with nonusers (the annual decline rate is -0.038 standardized units [95% CI = -0.044 to -0.032] for users and -0.046 [95% CI = -0.049 to -0.043] for nonusers). Results were slightly stronger from the PS-matched sample (N = 1,014) (the annual decline rate was -0.046 units [95% CI = -0.050 to -0.042] for users and -0.060 units [95% CI = -0.064 to -0.056] for nonusers). Put in other words, our findings suggested that SNAP users had approximately 2 fewer years of cognitive aging over a 10-year period compared with nonusers. DISCUSSION: After accounting for preexisting differences between eligible SNAP users and nonusers as well as differential attrition, we find SNAP use to be associated with slower memory function decline.

No Evidence The Child Tax Credit Expansion Had An Effect On The Well-Being And Mental Health Of Parents.

In 1997 the US established the Child Tax Credit (CTC), which offers payments to parents of dependent children to help defray child-rearing costs. In 2021 a temporary expansion to the CTC increased the size of payments, extended payments to families with low or no earnings, and distributed payments monthly instead of annually. Quasi-experimental evidence from the US and experimental evidence from low- and middle-income countries shows that moderate-to-large cash transfers improve subjective well-being and mental health. We estimated the CTC's expansion's effects on the subjective well-being and mental health of adult recipients, using data from the Understanding America Study, a nationally representative survey with more than 7,000 respondents and more than 2,700 unique respondents with children. We found no evidence that the CTC expansion had a significant short-term impact on measures of life satisfaction, anxiety, and depression symptomology among adult recipients. We speculate that the null effects may be due to the expansion's temporary nature.

Exposure to Childhood Poverty and Racial Differences in Economic Opportunity in Young Adulthood.

Young adults in the United States, especially young Black adults, experience high poverty rates relative to other age groups. Prior research has largely attributed racial disparities in young adult poverty to differential attainment of benchmarks related to education, employment, and family formation. This study investigates that mechanism alongside racial differences in childhood poverty exposure. Analyses of Panel Study of Income Dynamics data reveal that racial differences in childhood poverty are more consequential than differential attainment of education, employment, and family formation benchmarks in shaping racial differences in young adult poverty. Whereas benchmark attainment reduces an individual's likelihood of poverty, racial differences in benchmark attainment do not meaningfully explain Black-White poverty gaps for three reasons. First, childhood poverty is negatively associated with benchmark attainment, generating strong selection effects into the behavioral characteristics associated with lower poverty. Second, benchmark attainment does not equalize poverty rates among Black and White men. Third, Black children experience four times the poverty rate of White children, and childhood poverty has lingering negative consequences for young adult poverty. Although equalizing benchmark attainment would reduce Black-White gaps in young adult poverty, equalizing childhood poverty exposure would have twice the reduction effect.

Poverty after Birth: How Mothers Experience and Navigate U.S. Safety Net Programs to Address Family Needs.

Although pregnancy and the first year of life are sensitive windows for child development, we know very little about the lived experiences of mothers living in poverty or near poverty during the perinatal period; specifically, how they perceive and use public resources to support themselves and their newborn. In this qualitative study, we explore how predominantly Black and Latinx mothers with infants living in or near poverty and engaged in public assistance manage to meet their family's needs with available resources from safety net programs and social supports. We conducted 20 qualitative interviews with mothers living in (85%) or near poverty in New York City (NYC). All participants (mean age = 24) had an 11-month-old infant at the time of the interview. Using thematic analysis, we identified five main themes reflecting how mothers experience and navigate living with very low incomes while engaging in public assistance programs: (1) experiencing cascading effects of hardships during pregnancy, (2) relying on food assistance and informal supports amid scarcity, (3) waiting for limited affordable housing: 'life on hold', (4) finding pathways towards stability after the baby's birth, (5) making it work: efforts to look forward. Results describe how the current focus on "work first" of existing federal and state policies adds a layer of stress and burden on the lives of single mothers experiencing low incomes and entangled hardships during pregnancy and after birth. We document how mothers experience coverage gaps and implementation challenges navigating the patchwork of public assistance programs, yet how the support of flexible caseworkers accessing, using, and coordinating assistance has the potential to help mothers plan for longer-term goals.

The Evolution and Impact of Federal Antipoverty Programs for Children.

Despite our wealth, child poverty in the United States remains too high. The social safety net prevents and mitigates poverty for millions of children each year and evidence demonstrates long-term positive effects for recipients. But absent a commitment to universalism, our public investments in children produce uneven - and often inequitable - results. Our current system is heavily means-tested and work-conditioned. Though heavily targeted, it varies widely in adequacy and coverage by location and across population groups and it fails to serve all children in need. This article describes the evolution of the US social safety net for children over the last century. It traces the early 20th century origins of the contemporary system and the changes it saw through the mid-century's War on Poverty expansions and late 20th century's welfare reforms. Focusing specifically on federal cash and near-cash programs, it discusses key facets and principles of the current social safety net structure, its impact on children's health and economic well-being, remaining gaps, and promising advances for the future. Temporary improvements to the social safety net enacted as part of the pandemic response indicate important ways in which our public supports can reach more families, more consistently, moving forward. To reduce child poverty, one of the most promising approaches is to enact a national child allowance in the United States. Converting the existing Child Tax Credit into a universal child allowance, making it more generous, and delivering it to families on a regular basis throughout the year can accomplish this goal.

Early Impacts of Room to Grow: A Multifaceted Intervention Supporting Parents and Children Age Zero to Three.

Children experiencing poverty or low incomes fare worse than their more advantaged peers on a host of developmental and educational outcomes. Interventions have focused on strengthening parenting in families with young children, when supports appear to be most critical. But most parenting programs for low-income families fail to address parents' economic needs, which almost always take precedence relative to broader educational or developmental goals. In this article, we describe the early results of a multifaceted intervention aimed at supporting parents, infants, and toddlers in the first three years of life. The Room to Grow program provides parents, primarily mothers, with support from a clinical social worker, connections to community referrals, and up to $10,000 in material support for the baby in the form of in-kind assistance such as clothes, books, toys, strollers, and other necessities. The current study examines proximal outcomes of the intervention after one year using a randomized controlled trial evaluation design. The study finds that early impacts on proximal outcomes are uniformly positive, especially with regards to the presence of books and developmental goods in the home, developmentally-oriented parenting outcomes, and reduced stress and aggravation in the domain of parenting.

The Direct Effect of Taxes and Transfers on Changes in the U.S. Income Distribution, 1967-2015.

Scholars have increasingly drawn attention to rising levels of income inequality in the United States. However, prior studies have provided an incomplete account of how changes to specific transfer programs have contributed to changes in income growth across the distribution. Our study decomposes the direct effects of tax and transfer programs on changes in the household income distribution from 1967 to 2015. We show that despite a rising Gini coefficient, lower-tail inequality (the ratio of the 50th to 10th percentile) declined in the United States during this period due to the rise of in-kind and tax-based transfers. Food assistance and refundable tax credits account for nearly all the income growth between 1967 and 2015 at the 5th percentile and roughly one-half the growth at the 10th percentile. Moreover, income gains near the bottom of the distribution are concentrated among households with children. Changes in the income distribution were far less progressive among households without children.

Reducing poverty among children: Evidence from state policy simulations.

State approaches to reducing child poverty vary considerably. We exploit this state-level variation to estimate what could be achieved in terms of child poverty if all states adopted the most generous or inclusive states' policies. Specifically, we simulate the child poverty reductions that would occur if every state were as generous or inclusive as the most generous or inclusive state in four key policies: Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), state Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC), Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), and state Child Tax Credits (CTC). We find that adopting the most generous or inclusive state EITC policy would have the largest impact on child poverty, reducing it by 1.2 percentage points, followed by SNAP, TANF, and lastly state CTC. If all states were as generous or inclusive as the most generous or inclusive state in all four policies, the child poverty rate would decrease by 2.5 percentage points, and five and a half million children would be lifted out of poverty.

Young adult poverty in historical perspective: The role of policy supports and early labor market experiences.

Recent research using an improved measure of poverty finds that poverty has fallen by nearly forty percent since the 1960s in the United States. But past research has not examined whether this finding holds across detailed demographic groups who might be more or less vulnerable to poverty. This paper helps fill that gap, focusing on one such vulnerable subgroup: young adults. Using the Current Population Survey, this paper examines long-term trends in young adult poverty in comparison to other groups. In contrast to almost all other groups, young adults have seen no decrease in poverty since the 1960s. We explore potential reasons for this fact, finding that young adults lack access to benefits from government programs, and are increasingly unmarried, living alone, and disconnected from the labor market, factors that leave young adults more vulnerable than other groups to poverty. The findings have implications for how antipoverty policies might assist this vulnerable group.

Antipoverty Impact Of Medicaid Growing With State Expansions Over Time.

Out-of-pocket spending on health care pushed over 10.5 million Americans into poverty in 2016. Medicaid helps offset this risk by providing medical coverage to millions of poor and near-poor children and adults and thereby constraining out-of-pocket medical spending. This article examines whether recent state-level expansions to the Medicaid program resulted in reductions in poverty and whether future changes to the program are likely to have similar impacts on poverty. Using a difference-in-differences research design, we found that the recent Medicaid expansion caused a significant reduction in the poverty rate. Moreover, by simulating a counterfactual poverty rate for a hypothetical world without Medicaid coverage, we found that the program's antipoverty impact grew over the past decade independent of expansion, by shielding beneficiaries from growing out-of-pocket spending. Future expansions or retractions of Medicaid are likely to produce associated effects on poverty.

A Universal Child Allowance: A Plan to Reduce Poverty and Income Instability Among Children in the United States.

To reduce child poverty and income instability, and eliminate extreme poverty among families with children in the United States, we propose converting the Child Tax Credit and child tax exemption into a universal, monthly child allowance. Our proposal is based on principles we argue should undergird the design of such policies: universality, accessibility, adequate payment levels, and more generous support for young children. Whether benefits should decline with additional children to reflect economies of scale is a question policymakers should consider. Analyzing 2015 Current Population Survey data, we estimate our proposed child allowance would reduce child poverty by about 40 percent, deep child poverty by nearly half, and would effectively eliminate extreme child poverty. Annual net cost estimates range from $66 billion to $105 billion.

Workers not Paid for Sick Leave after Implementation of the New York City Paid Sick Leave Law.

This study examined factors associated with being paid for sick leave after implementation of the New York City (NYC) paid sick leave law. A random sample of NYC residents was surveyed by telephone multiple times over a 2-year period. Participants (n = 1195) reported socio-demographics, awareness of the law, income, work hours per week, and payment for sick time off work. In the year after implementation of the law, part-time workers were significantly more likely to attend work while sick than full-time workers (relative risk = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.1, 1.4). Seventy percent of workers who missed work due to illness (n = 249) were paid for sick leave. Part-time workers, respondents not aware of the benefit (30% of workers), and workers without a college degree were the least likely to be paid for sick days. More than one third (37%) of persons not paid for sick leave worked in retail, food service, or health care. Although 70% of respondents were paid for sick leave after implementation of the law, part-time workers and workers with low education were least likely to access the benefit and more likely to work while sick. The disparity in paid sick leave may have public health consequences as many persons not paid for sick leave had occupations that carry a high risk of disease transmission to others.

Poverty among Foster Children: Estimates Using the Supplemental Poverty Measure.

We use data from the Current Population Survey and the new Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) to provide estimates for poverty among foster children over the period 1992 to 2013. These are the first large-scale national estimates for foster children who are not included in official poverty statistics. Holding child and family demographics constant, foster children have a lower risk of poverty than other children. Analyzing income in detail suggests that foster care payments likely play an important role in reducing the risk of poverty in this group. In contrast, we find that children living with grandparents have a higher risk of poverty than other children, even after taking demographics into account. Our estimates suggest that this excess risk is likely linked to their lower likelihood of receiving foster care or other income supports.

Young child poverty in the United States: Analyzing trends in poverty and the role of anti-poverty programs using the Supplemental Poverty Measure.

Between 1968 and 2013, the poverty rate of young children age 0 to 5 years fell by nearly one third, in large part because of the role played by anti-poverty programs. However, young children in the U.S. still face a much higher rate of poverty than do older children in the U.S. They also continue to have a much higher poverty rate than do young children in other developed countries around the world. In this paper, we provide a detailed analysis of trends in poverty and the role of anti-poverty programs in addressing poverty among young children, using an improved measure of poverty, the Supplemental Poverty Measure. We examine changes over time and the current status, both for young children overall and for key subgroups (by child age, and by child race/ethnicity). Our findings can be summarized in three key points. First, poverty among all young children age 0-5 years has fallen since the beginning of our time series; but absent the safety net, today's poverty rate among young children would be identical to or higher than it was in 1968. Second, the safety net plays an increasing role in reducing the poverty of young children, especially among Black non-Hispanic children, whose poverty rate would otherwise be 20.8 percentage points higher in 2013. Third, the composition of support has changed from virtually all cash transfers in 1968, to about one third each of cash, credit and in-kind transfers today.

Giving Unto Others: Private Financial Transfers and Hardship Among Families with Children.

Prior research shows that financial assistance from family and friends is an important source of support for families with children. However, research on financial transfers has largely focused on the recipients of transfers. In this study, using longitudinal data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (n~16,000 person-waves), we examine the association between the provision of financial assistance to family and friends and material hardship. Results from pooled regression and fixed effects models indicate that providing financial transfers is associated with an increased risk of hardship. The most economically disadvantaged groups, single mothers, those in the bottom income tertile, and black mothers, are the most likely to experience hardship after giving a transfer. These findings have important implications for understanding why families may have difficulty meeting basic and essential needs, and how social networks may exacerbate the challenges of escaping poverty and establishing economic self-sufficiency.

Moderation of the Relation of County-Level Cost of Living to Nutrition by the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the association of county-level cost of living with nutrition among low-income Americans. METHODS: We used the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (2012-2013; n = 14 313; including 5414 persons in households participating in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program [SNAP]) to examine associations between county-level cost-of-living metrics and both food acquisitions and the Healthy Eating Index, with control for individual-, household-, and county-level covariates and accounting for unmeasured confounders influencing both area of living and food acquisition. RESULTS: Living in a higher-cost county-particularly one with high rent costs-was associated with significantly lower volume of acquired vegetables, fruits, and whole grains; greater volume of acquired refined grains, fats and oils, and added sugars; and an 11% lower Healthy Eating Index score. Participation in SNAP was associated with nutritional improvements among persons living in higher-cost counties. CONCLUSIONS: Living in a higher-cost county (particularly with high rent costs) is associated with poorer nutrition among low-income Americans, and SNAP may mitigate the negative nutritional impact of high cost of living.

Progress on Poverty? New Estimates of Historical Trends Using an Anchored Supplemental Poverty Measure.

This study examines historical trends in poverty using an anchored version of the U.S. Census Bureau's recently developed Research Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) estimated back to 1967. Although the SPM is estimated each year using a quasi-relative poverty threshold that varies over time with changes in families' expenditures on a core basket of goods and services, this study explores trends in poverty using an absolute, or anchored, SPM threshold. We believe the anchored measure offers two advantages. First, setting the threshold at the SPM's 2012 levels and estimating it back to 1967, adjusted only for changes in prices, is more directly comparable to the approach taken in official poverty statistics. Second, it allows for a better accounting of the roles that social policy, the labor market, and changing demographics play in trends in poverty rates over time, given that changes in the threshold are held constant. Results indicate that unlike official statistics that have shown poverty rates to be fairly flat since the 1960s, poverty rates have dropped by 40 % when measured using a historical anchored SPM over the same period. Results obtained from comparing poverty rates using a pretax/pretransfer measure of resources versus a post-tax/post-transfer measure of resources further show that government policies, not market incomes, are driving the declines observed over time.