Treatment for Severe Lupus Nephritis: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in China.

Background: Lupus nephritis (LN) is the most common secondary glomerular diseases that will cause end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and renal-related death. The cost-effectiveness of various treatments for LN recommended by official guidelines has not been investigated in China. Our study is to evaluate clinical prognosis and cost-effectiveness of the current treatments for severe LN. Methods: A Markov model was simulated for 1,000 LN patients of 30 years old, over a 3-years and 30-years lifetime horizon respectively. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of six therapeutic strategies from a societal perspective, with cyclophosphamide (CYC) or mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) induction therapy followed by CYC, MMF or azathioprine (AZA) maintenance therapy. Main outcomes included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and clinical prognosis. One and three times gross domestic product (GDP) per capita were used as the willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds. We also carried out sensitivity analysis under a lifetime horizon. Results: Compared with the baseline strategy of CYC induction and maintenance, for a 3-years horizon the most cost-effective strategy was CYC induction and AZA maintenance with $448 per QALY gained, followed by MMF induction and AZA maintenance which however was not cost-effective under the one times GDP per capita WTP threshold. For a lifetime horizon, CYC induction and AZA maintenance remained the most cost-effective strategy but MMF induction and maintenance became cost-effective under the one times GDP per capita WTP threshold and achieved a higher complete remission rate (57.2 versus 48.9%) and lower risks of ESRD (3.3 versus 5.8%) and all-cause mortality (36.0 versus 40.8%). The risk of developing ESRD during maintenance was the most influential parameter affecting ICER. Conclusions: The strategy of CYC induction followed by AZA maintenance was the most cost-effective strategy in China for short-term treatment, while the strategy of MMF in both induction and maintenance became cost-effective and yielded more desirable clinical outcomes for lifetime treatment. The uncertainty analysis supported the need for monitoring the progression to ESRD.

Lead-time bias in esophageal cancer screening in high-risk areas in China.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate what extent lead-time bias is likely to affect endoscopic screening effectiveness for esophageal cancer in the high-risk area in China. METHODS: A screening model based on the epidemiological cancer registry data, yielding a population-level incidence and mortality rates, was carried out to simulate study participants in the high-risk area in China, and investigate the effect of lead-time bias on endoscopic screening with control for length bias. RESULTS: Of 100,000 participants, 6,150 (6.15%) were diagnosed with esophageal squamous dysplasia during the 20-year follow-up period. The estimated lead time ranged from 1.67 to 5.78 years, with a median time of 4.62 years [interquartile range (IQR): 4.07-5.11 years] in the high-risk area in China. Lead-time bias exaggerated screening effectiveness severely, causing more than a 10% overestimation in 5-year cause-specific survival rate and around a 43% reduction in cause-specific hazard ratio. The magnitude of lead-time bias on endoscopic screening for esophageal cancer varied depending on the screening strategies, in which an inverted U-shaped and U-shaped effects were observed in the 5-year cause-specific survival rate and cause-specific hazard ratio respectively concerning a range of ages for primary screening. CONCLUSIONS: Lead-time bias, usually causing an overestimation of screening effectiveness, is an elementary and fundamental issue in cancer screening. Quantification and correction of lead-time bias are essential when evaluating the effectiveness of endoscopic screening in the high-risk area in China.

Mental health during and after protests, riots and revolutions: A systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: Protests, riots and revolutions have long been a part of human history and are increasing globally, yet their impact on mental health remains largely unknown. We therefore systematically reviewed studies on collective actions and mental health. METHOD: We searched PubMed, Web of Science, PsycINFO and CINAHL Plus for published studies from their inception until 1 January 2018. Study quality was rated using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. RESULTS: We identified 52 studies (n = 57,487 participants) from 20 countries/regions. The prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder ranged from 4% to 41% in riot-affected areas. Following a major protest, the prevalence of probable major depression increased by 7%, regardless of personal involvement in the protests, suggestive of community spillover effects. Risk factors for poorer mental health included female sex, lower socioeconomic status, exposure to violence, interpersonal conflicts, frequent social media use and lower resilience and social support. Nevertheless, two studies suggested that collective actions may reduce depression and suicide, possibly due to a collective cathartic experience and greater social cohesion within subpopulations. CONCLUSION: We present the first systematic review of collective actions and mental health, showing compelling evidence that protests even when nonviolent can be associated with adverse mental health outcomes. Health care professionals therefore need to be vigilant to the mental and psychological sequelae of protests, riots and revolutions. Further research on this emerging sociopolitical determinant of mental health is warranted.