Improving models for student retention and graduation using Markov chains.

Graduation rates are a key measure of the long-term efficacy of academic interventions. However, challenges to using traditional estimates of graduation rates for underrepresented students include inherently small sample sizes and high data requirements. Here, we show that a Markov model increases confidence and reduces biases in estimated graduation rates for underrepresented minority and first-generation students. We use a Learning Assistant program to demonstrate the Markov model's strength for assessing program efficacy. We find that Learning Assistants in gateway science courses are associated with a 9% increase in the six-year graduation rate. These gains are larger for underrepresented minority (21%) and first-generation students (18%). Our results indicate that Learning Assistants can improve overall graduation rates and address inequalities in graduation rates for underrepresented students.

Assessing parameter sensitivity in a university campus COVID-19 model with vaccinations.

From the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, universities have experienced unique challenges due to their dual nature as a place of education and residence. Current research has explored non-pharmaceutical approaches to combating COVID-19, including representing in models different categories such as age groups. One key area not currently well represented in models is the effect of pharmaceutical preventative measures, specifically vaccinations, on COVID-19 spread on college campuses. There remain key questions on the sensitivity of COVID-19 infection rates on college campuses to potentially time-varying vaccine immunity. Here we introduce a compartment model that decomposes a campus population into constituent subpopulations and implements vaccinations with time-varying efficacy. We use this model to represent a campus population with both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, and we analyze this model using two metrics of interest: maximum isolation population and symptomatic infection. We demonstrate a decrease in symptomatic infections occurs for vaccinated individuals when the frequency of testing for unvaccinated individuals is increased. We find that the number of symptomatic infections is insensitive to the frequency of testing of the unvaccinated subpopulation once about 80% or more of the population is vaccinated. Through a Sobol' global sensitivity analysis, we characterize the sensitivity of modeled infection rates to these uncertain parameters. We find that in order to manage symptomatic infections and the maximum isolation population campuses must minimize contact between infected and uninfected individuals, promote high vaccine protection at the beginning of the semester, and minimize the number of individuals developing symptoms.

Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2.

The social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO2) measures the monetized value of the damages to society caused by an incremental metric tonne of CO2 emissions and is a key metric informing climate policy. Used by governments and other decision-makers in benefit-cost analysis for over a decade, SC-CO2 estimates draw on climate science, economics, demography and other disciplines. However, a 2017 report by the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine1 (NASEM) highlighted that current SC-CO2 estimates no longer reflect the latest research. The report provided a series of recommendations for improving the scientific basis, transparency and uncertainty characterization of SC-CO2 estimates. Here we show that improved probabilistic socioeconomic projections, climate models, damage functions, and discounting methods that collectively reflect theoretically consistent valuation of risk, substantially increase estimates of the SC-CO2. Our preferred mean SC-CO2 estimate is $185 per tonne of CO2 ($44-$413 per tCO2: 5%-95% range, 2020 US dollars) at a near-term risk-free discount rate of 2%, a value 3.6 times higher than the US government's current value of $51 per tCO2. Our estimates incorporate updated scientific understanding throughout all components of SC-CO2 estimation in the new open-source Greenhouse Gas Impact Value Estimator (GIVE) model, in a manner fully responsive to the near-term NASEM recommendations. Our higher SC-CO2 values, compared with estimates currently used in policy evaluation, substantially increase the estimated benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation and thereby increase the expected net benefits of more stringent climate policies.

Evaluating the sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 infection rates on college campuses to wastewater surveillance.

As college campuses reopened in fall 2020, we saw a large-scale experiment unfold on the efficacy of various strategies to contain the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Traditional individual surveillance testing via nasal swabs and/or saliva is among the measures that colleges are pursuing to reduce the spread of the virus on campus. Additionally, some colleges are testing wastewater on their campuses for signs of infection, which can provide an early warning signal for campuses to locate COVID-positive individuals. However, a representation of wastewater surveillance has not yet been incorporated into epidemiological models for college campuses, nor has the efficacy of wastewater screening been evaluated relative to traditional individual surveillance testing, within the structure of these models. Here, we implement a new model component for wastewater surveillance within an established epidemiological model for college campuses. We use a hypothetical residential university to evaluate the efficacy of wastewater surveillance for maintaining low infection rates. We find that wastewater sampling with a 1-day lag to initiate individual screening tests, plus completing the subsequent tests within a 4-day period can keep overall infections within 5% of the infection rates seen with traditional individual surveillance testing. Our results also indicate that wastewater surveillance can effectively reduce the number of false positive cases by identifying subpopulations for surveillance testing where infectious individuals are more likely to be found. Through a Monte Carlo risk analysis, we find that surveillance testing that relies solely on wastewater sampling can be fragile against scenarios with high viral reproductive numbers and high rates of infection of campus community members by outside sources. These results point to the practical importance of additional surveillance measures to limit the spread of the virus on campus and the necessity of a proactive response to the initial signs of outbreak.

A tighter constraint on Earth-system sensitivity from long-term temperature and carbon-cycle observations.

The long-term temperature response to a given change in CO2 forcing, or Earth-system sensitivity (ESS), is a key parameter quantifying our understanding about the relationship between changes in Earth's radiative forcing and the resulting long-term Earth-system response. Current ESS estimates are subject to sizable uncertainties. Long-term carbon cycle models can provide a useful avenue to constrain ESS, but previous efforts either use rather informal statistical approaches or focus on discrete paleoevents. Here, we improve on previous ESS estimates by using a Bayesian approach to fuse deep-time CO2 and temperature data over the last 420 Myrs with a long-term carbon cycle model. Our median ESS estimate of 3.4 °C (2.6-4.7 °C; 5-95% range) shows a narrower range than previous assessments. We show that weaker chemical weathering relative to the a priori model configuration via reduced weatherable land area yields better agreement with temperature records during the Cretaceous. Research into improving the understanding about these weathering mechanisms hence provides potentially powerful avenues to further constrain this fundamental Earth-system property.

Probabilistic inversion of expert assessments to inform projections about Antarctic ice sheet responses.

The response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to changing global temperatures is a key component of sea-level projections. Current projections of the AIS contribution to sea-level changes are deeply uncertain. This deep uncertainty stems, in part, from (i) the inability of current models to fully resolve key processes and scales, (ii) the relatively sparse available data, and (iii) divergent expert assessments. One promising approach to characterizing the deep uncertainty stemming from divergent expert assessments is to combine expert assessments, observations, and simple models by coupling probabilistic inversion and Bayesian inversion. Here, we present a proof-of-concept study that uses probabilistic inversion to fuse a simple AIS model and diverse expert assessments. We demonstrate the ability of probabilistic inversion to infer joint prior probability distributions of model parameters that are consistent with expert assessments. We then confront these inferred expert priors with instrumental and paleoclimatic observational data in a Bayesian inversion. These additional constraints yield tighter hindcasts and projections. We use this approach to quantify how the deep uncertainty surrounding expert assessments affects the joint probability distributions of model parameters and future projections.

A multi-objective decision-making approach to the journal submission problem.

When researchers complete a manuscript, they need to choose a journal to which they will submit the study. This decision requires to navigate trade-offs between multiple objectives. One objective is to share the new knowledge as widely as possible. Citation counts can serve as a proxy to quantify this objective. A second objective is to minimize the time commitment put into sharing the research, which may be estimated by the total time from initial submission to final decision. A third objective is to minimize the number of rejections and resubmissions. Thus, researchers often consider the trade-offs between the objectives of (i) maximizing citations, (ii) minimizing time-to-decision, and (iii) minimizing the number of resubmissions. To complicate matters further, this is a decision with multiple, potentially conflicting, decision-maker rationalities. Co-authors might have different preferences, for example about publishing fast versus maximizing citations. These diverging preferences can lead to conflicting trade-offs between objectives. Here, we apply a multi-objective decision analytical framework to identify the Pareto-front between these objectives and determine the set of journal submission pathways that balance these objectives for three stages of a researcher's career. We find multiple strategies that researchers might pursue, depending on how they value minimizing risk and effort relative to maximizing citations. The sequences that maximize expected citations within each strategy are generally similar, regardless of time horizon. We find that the "conditional impact factor"-impact factor times acceptance rate-is a suitable heuristic method for ranking journals, to strike a balance between minimizing effort objectives and maximizing citation count. Finally, we examine potential co-author tension resulting from differing rationalities by mapping out each researcher's preferred Pareto front and identifying compromise submission strategies. The explicit representation of trade-offs, especially when multiple decision-makers (co-authors) have different preferences, facilitates negotiations and can support the decision process.

Sea-level projections representing the deeply uncertain contribution of the West Antarctic ice sheet.

There is a growing awareness that uncertainties surrounding future sea-level projections may be much larger than typically perceived. Recently published projections appear widely divergent and highly sensitive to non-trivial model choices. Moreover, the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) may be much less stable than previous believed, enabling a rapid disintegration. Here, we present a set of probabilistic sea-level projections that approximates the deeply uncertain WAIS contributions. The projections aim to inform robust decisions by clarifying the sensitivity to non-trivial or controversial assumptions. We show that the deeply uncertain WAIS contribution can dominate other uncertainties within decades. These deep uncertainties call for the development of robust adaptive strategies. These decision-making needs, in turn, require mission-oriented basic science, for example about potential signposts and the maximum rate of WAIS-induced sea-level changes.

Assessing the Impact of Retreat Mechanisms in a Simple Antarctic Ice Sheet Model Using Bayesian Calibration.

The response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to changing climate forcings is an important driver of sea-level changes. Anthropogenic climate change may drive a sizeable AIS tipping point response with subsequent increases in coastal flooding risks. Many studies analyzing flood risks use simple models to project the future responses of AIS and its sea-level contributions. These analyses have provided important new insights, but they are often silent on the effects of potentially important processes such as Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI) or Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI). These approximations can be well justified and result in more parsimonious and transparent model structures. This raises the question of how this approximation impacts hindcasts and projections. Here, we calibrate a previously published and relatively simple AIS model, which neglects the effects of MICI and regional characteristics, using a combination of observational constraints and a Bayesian inversion method. Specifically, we approximate the effects of missing MICI by comparing our results to those from expert assessments with more realistic models and quantify the bias during the last interglacial when MICI may have been triggered. Our results suggest that the model can approximate the process of MISI and reproduce the projected median melt from some previous expert assessments in the year 2100. Yet, our mean hindcast is roughly 3/4 of the observed data during the last interglacial period and our mean projection is roughly 1/6 and 1/10 of the mean from a model accounting for MICI in the year 2100. These results suggest that missing MICI and/or regional characteristics can lead to a low-bias during warming period AIS melting and hence a potential low-bias in projected sea levels and flood risks.