ABSTRACT
Background: Sabes, a treatment-as-prevention intervention among men who have sex with men and transgender women in Lima, Peru, was developed to identify HIV during early primary infection (<3 months from acquisition) through monthly serologic assays and HIV RNA tests. Newly diagnosed individuals were rapidly linked to care and offered to initiate ART. In this study we sought to study the cost-effectiveness of Sabes compared to the standard of care (SOC) for HIV testing and initiation of treatment. Methods: We adapted a compartmental model of HIV transmission to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the Sabes approach compared to the SOC using a government health care perspective, 20-year time horizon, and 3% annual discounting. We estimated the proportion of cases of HIV detected during early primary infection, reduction in HIV incidence and prevalence, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), and net monetary benefit. We analyzed costs using data from the Sabes study, the Peruvian Ministry of Health, published literature, and expert consultation. Findings: The Sabes intervention is projected to identify 9294 early primary HIV infections in Lima, Peru over 20 years. The intervention costs $6,896 per early primary infection diagnosed and by 2038 is expected to decrease the fraction of early infections among prevalent infections by 62%. Sabes is expected to improve health, resulting in greater total discounted QALYs per person than the SOC (16·7 vs 16·4, respectively). Sabes had an ICER of $1431 (22% per capita GDP in Peru) per QALY compared to SOC. Interpretation: Our analysis suggests that in Lima, Peru the Sabes intervention could be a cost-effective approach to reduce the burden of HIV even under stringent cost-effectiveness criteria. This finding suggests that programs that use frequent HIV testing, rapid linkage to care and initiation of ART should be considered as part of a comprehensive HIV prevention strategy. Funding: National Institutes of Health.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The Sabes study, a treatment as prevention intervention in Peru, tested the hypothesis that initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) early in HIV infection when viral load is high, would markedly reduce onward HIV transmission among high-risk men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TW). We investigated the potential population-level benefits of detection of HIV early after acquisition and rapid initiation of ART. METHODS: We designed a transmission dynamic model to simulate the HIV epidemic among MSM and TW in Peru, calibrated to data on HIV prevalence and ART coverage from 2004 to 2011. We assessed the impact of an intervention starting in 2018 in which up to 50% of the new infections were diagnosed within three months of acquisition and initiated on ART within 1 month of diagnosis. We estimated the impact of the intervention over 20 years using the cumulative prevented fraction of new HIV infections compared to scenarios without intervention. FINDINGS: Our model suggests that only 19% of the infected MSM and TW are virally suppressed in 2018 and 35%-40% of the new HIV infections are transmitted from contacts with acutely-infected partners. An intervention reaching 10% of all acutely infected MSM and TW is projected to prevent 13.3% [Uncertainty interval: 11.9%-14.3%] of the new infections over 20 years and reduce HIV incidence in 2038 by 24%. Reaching 50% of all acutely infected MSM and TW will increase the prevalence of viral suppression in 2038 to 59% and prevent 41% of expected infections over 20 years. Reaching 50% of the high-risk MSM and TW in acute phase would reduce HIV incidence in 2038 by 60% and prevent 36% of new infections between 2018 and 2038. CONCLUSIONS: Early detection of HIV infections and rapid initiation of ART among MSM is desirable as it would increase the effectiveness of the HIV prevention program in Peru. Targeting high-risk MSM and TW will be highly efficient.