Avian mortality risk during heat waves will increase greatly in arid Australia during the 21st century.

Intense heat waves are occurring more frequently, with concomitant increases in the risk of catastrophic avian mortality events via lethal dehydration or hyperthermia. We quantified the risks of lethal hyperthermia and dehydration for 10 Australian arid-zone avifauna species during the 21st century, by synthesizing thermal physiology data on evaporative water losses and heat tolerance limits. We evaluated risks of lethal hyperthermia or exceedance of dehydration tolerance limits in the absence of drinking during the hottest part of the day under recent climatic conditions, compared to those predicted for the end of this century across Australia. Increases in mortality risk via lethal dehydration and hyperthermia vary among the species modelled here but will generally increase greatly, particularly in smaller species (~10-42 g) and those inhabiting the far western parts of the continent. By 2100 CE, zebra finches' potential exposure to acute lethal dehydration risk will reach ~ 100 d y-1 in the far northwest of Australia and will exceed 20 d y-1 over > 50% of this species' current range. Risks of dehydration and hyperthermia will remain much lower for large non-passerines such as crested pigeons. Risks of lethal hyperthermia will also increase substantially for smaller species, particularly if they are forced to visit exposed water sources at very high air temperatures to avoid dehydration. An analysis of atlas data for zebra finches suggests that population declines associated with very hot conditions are already occurring in the hottest areas. Our findings suggest that the likelihood of persistence within current species ranges, and the potential for range shifts, will become increasingly constrained by temperature and access to drinking water. Our model adds to an increasing body of literature suggesting that arid environments globally will experience considerable losses of avifauna and biodiversity under unmitigated climate change scenarios.

Chronic, sublethal effects of high temperatures will cause severe declines in southern African arid-zone birds during the 21st century.

Birds inhabiting hot, arid regions are among the terrestrial organisms most vulnerable to climate change. The potential for increasingly frequent and intense heat waves to cause lethal dehydration and hyperthermia is well documented, but the consequences of sublethal fitness costs associated with chronic exposure to sustained hot weather remain unclear. Using data for species occurring in southern Africa's Kalahari Desert, we mapped exposure to acute lethal risks and chronic sublethal fitness costs under past, present, and future climates. For inactive birds in shaded microsites, the risks of lethal dehydration and hyperthermia will remain low during the 21st century. In contrast, exposure to conditions associated with chronic, sublethal costs related to progressive body mass loss, reduced nestling growth rates, or increased breeding failure will expand dramatically. For example, by the 2080s the region will experience 10-20 consecutive days per year on which Southern Pied Babblers (Turdoides bicolor) will lose ∼4% of body mass per day, conditions under which this species' persistence will be extremely unlikely. Similarly, exposure to air temperature maxima associated with delayed fledging, reduced fledgling size, and breeding failure will increase several-fold in Southern Yellow-billed Hornbills (Tockus leucomelas) and Southern Fiscals (Lanius collaris). Our analysis reveals that sublethal costs of chronic heat exposure are likely to drive large declines in avian diversity in the southern African arid zone by the end of the century.