ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Risk factors for progression of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to severe disease or death are underexplored in U.S. cohorts. OBJECTIVE: To determine the factors on hospital admission that are predictive of severe disease or death from COVID-19. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis. SETTING: Five hospitals in the Maryland and Washington, DC, area. PATIENTS: 832 consecutive COVID-19 admissions from 4 March to 24 April 2020, with follow-up through 27 June 2020. MEASUREMENTS: Patient trajectories and outcomes, categorized by using the World Health Organization COVID-19 disease severity scale. Primary outcomes were death and a composite of severe disease or death. RESULTS: Median patient age was 64 years (range, 1 to 108 years); 47% were women, 40% were Black, 16% were Latinx, and 21% were nursing home residents. Among all patients, 131 (16%) died and 694 (83%) were discharged (523 [63%] had mild to moderate disease and 171 [20%] had severe disease). Of deaths, 66 (50%) were nursing home residents. Of 787 patients admitted with mild to moderate disease, 302 (38%) progressed to severe disease or death: 181 (60%) by day 2 and 238 (79%) by day 4. Patients had markedly different probabilities of disease progression on the basis of age, nursing home residence, comorbid conditions, obesity, respiratory symptoms, respiratory rate, fever, absolute lymphocyte count, hypoalbuminemia, troponin level, and C-reactive protein level and the interactions among these factors. Using only factors present on admission, a model to predict in-hospital disease progression had an area under the curve of 0.85, 0.79, and 0.79 at days 2, 4, and 7, respectively. LIMITATION: The study was done in a single health care system. CONCLUSION: A combination of demographic and clinical variables is strongly associated with severe COVID-19 disease or death and their early onset. The COVID-19 Inpatient Risk Calculator (CIRC), using factors present on admission, can inform clinical and resource allocation decisions. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Hopkins inHealth and COVID-19 Administrative Supplement for the HHS Region 3 Treatment Center from the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response.
Subject(s)
COVID-19/mortality , Hospital Mortality , Hospitalization , Severity of Illness Index , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Child , Child, Preschool , Disease Progression , Female , Humans , Infant , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , United States/epidemiologyABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: The study sought to characterize institution-wide participation in secure messaging (SM) at a large academic health network, describe our experience with electronic medical record (EMR)-based cohort selection, and discuss the potential roles of SM for research recruitment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Study teams defined eligibility criteria to create a computable phenotype, structured EMR data, to identify and recruit participants. Patients with SM accounts matching this phenotype received recruitment messages. We compared demographic characteristics across SM users and the overall health system. We also tabulated SM activation and use, characteristics of individual studies, and efficacy of the recruitment methods. RESULTS: Of the 1 308 820 patients in the health network, 40% had active SM accounts. SM users had a greater proportion of white and non-Hispanic patients than nonactive SM users id. Among the studies included (n = 13), 77% recruited participants with a specific disease or condition. All studies used demographic criteria for their phenotype, while 46% (n = 6) used demographic, disease, and healthcare utilization criteria. The average SM response rate was 2.9%, with higher rates among condition-specific (3.4%) vs general health (1.4%) studies. Those studies with a more inclusive comprehensive phenotype had a higher response rate. DISCUSSION: Target population and EMR queries (computable phenotypes) affect recruitment efficacy and should be considered when designing an EMR-based recruitment strategy. CONCLUSIONS: SM guided by EMR-based cohort selection is a promising approach to identify and enroll research participants. Efforts to increase the number of active SM users and response rate should be implemented to enhance the effectiveness of this recruitment strategy.
Subject(s)
Clinical Trials as Topic/methods , Computer Security , Electronic Health Records , Patient Portals , Patient Selection , Text Messaging , Academic Medical Centers , Data Mining/methods , HumansABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: We developed a service to identify potential study participants through electronic medical records and deliver study invitations through patient portals. METHODS: The service was piloted in a cohort study that used multiple recruitment methods. RESULTS: Patient portal messages were sent to 1303 individuals and the enrollment rate was 10% (n=127). The patient portal enrollment rate was significantly higher than email and post mail (4%) strategies. CONCLUSION: Patient portal messaging was an effective recruitment strategy.
