Towards a vulnerability assessment of the UK and northern European coasts: the role of regional climate variability.

Within the framework of a Tyndall Centre research project, sea level and wave changes around the UK and in the North Sea have been analysed. This paper integrates the results of this project. Many aspects of the contribution of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to sea level and wave height have been resolved. The NAO is a major forcing parameter for sea-level variability. Strong positive response to increasing NAO was observed in the shallow parts of the North Sea, while slightly negative response was found in the southwest part of the UK. The cause of the strong positive response is mainly the increased westerly winds. The NAO increase during the last decades has affected both the mean sea level and the extreme sea levels in the North Sea. The derived spatial distribution of the NAO-related variability of sea level allows the development of scenarios for future sea level and wave height in the region. Because the response of sea level to the NAO is found to be variable in time across all frequency bands, there is some inherent uncertainty in the use of the empirical relationships to develop scenarios of future sea level. Nevertheless, as it remains uncertain whether the multi-decadal NAO variability is related to climate change, the use of the empirical relationships in developing scenarios is justified. The resulting scenarios demonstrate: (i) that the use of regional estimates of sea level increase the projected range of sea-level change by 50% and (ii) that the contribution of the NAO to winter sea-level variability increases the range of uncertainty by a further 10-20cm. On the assumption that the general circulation models have some skill in simulating the future NAO change, then the NAO contribution to sea-level change around the UK is expected to be very small (<4cm) by 2080. Wave heights are also sensitive to the NAO changes, especially in the western coasts of the UK. Under the same scenarios for future NAO changes, the projected significant wave-height changes in the northeast Atlantic will exceed 0.4m. In addition, wave-direction changes of around 20 degrees per unit NAO index have been documented for one location. Such changes raise the possibility of consequential alteration of coastal erosion.

Seroma formation after breast cancer surgery: incidence and predicting factors.

The pathophysiology of seroma formation has yet to be determined. Therefore, the present study was undertaken to calculate the incidence of postoperative seromas after definitive breast cancer operations utilizing electrocautery dissection. Additionally, we attempted to identify risk factors associated with seroma development and to examine seroma formation in relation to operative procedure. A retrospective review of 252 breast cancer operations was undertaken. Patients were subdivided by operative procedure: modified radical mastectomy (MRM; n = 148), breast preservation with axillary node dissection (n = 64), or MRM with immediate reconstruction (n = 40). Electrocautery was used in development of skin flaps. Seromas developed in 39 of the 252 operations for an incidence of 15.5 per cent. Seroma formation was significantly lower in those patients receiving MRM with immediate reconstruction than in those receiving MRM (2.5% vs 19.6%; P = 0.009) and tended to be lower than for patients receiving breast preservation with axillary node dissection (14.06%; P = 0.052). Neoadjuvant chemotherapy was performed in 18 patients, of whom 6 developed seromas (P = 0.030). The incidence of postoperative seromas was low despite the use of electrocautery. An association of postoperative seromas with neoadjuvant chemotherapy was noted. Additionally, it appears that immediate reconstruction may reduce the incidence of postoperative seromas, presumably by filling the dead space in the chest wall.

Debt and other influences on career choices among surgical and primary care residents in a community-based hospital system.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate debt and other factors that help formulate the career paths of future surgical and primary care physicians, a survey was undertaken. METHODS: Surgical specialty (SS) and primary care (PC) residents were surveyed regarding demographics, factors influencing choice of specialty, methods of financing education, debt characteristics, and outlooks regarding future earnings and practice characteristics. RESULTS: The clinical years of medical school and personalities of specialists and residents were important factors in career choices for both PC and SS. The length of residency, desirable lifestyle, and working hours were all more important to PC residents. Surgeons found intellectual challenge and procedure-based practice of greater importance. Although not highly regarded by either group, scholarship obligation and student loans had a significantly greater impact on specialty choice and practice plans for PC residents. At the completion of training, 55% of SS and 28% of PC residents anticipate owing more than $100,000. Debt was especially significant in specialty choice and practice plans for PC residents with debt over $100,000. CONCLUSION: Surgical residents are less concerned about personal sacrifices in their quest to become surgeons. It appears state funded scholarships are successful in attracting students to primary care. Both SS and PC residents have significant debt, although, SS residents have greater financial debt than primary care residents. However, the anticipation of indebtedness was a more significant factor in determination of career path for PC.

Non-operative treatment of subacromial impingement syndrome.

We performed a retrospective study of 616 patients (636 shoulders) who had subacromial impingement syndrome to assess the results of non-operative treatment. The diagnosis was made on the basis of a positive impingement sign and the absence of other abnormalities of the shoulder, such as full-thickness tears of the rotator cuff, osteoarthrosis of the acromioclavicular joint, instability of the glenohumeral joint, or adhesive capsulitis. All patients were managed with anti-inflammatory medication and a specific, supervised physical-therapy regimen consisting of isotonic exercises for strengthening of the rotator cuff. The average duration of follow-up was twenty-seven months (range, six to eighty-one months). Over-all, 413 patients (67 per cent) had a satisfactory result. One hundred and seventy-two patients (28 per cent) had no improvement and went on to have an arthroscopic subacromial decompression. Thirty-one patients (5 per cent) had an unsatisfactory result but declined additional treatment. Seventy-four (18 per cent) of the 413 patients who had a successful result had a recurrence of the symptoms during the follow-up period; the symptoms resolved with rest or after resumption of the exercise program. The patients were stratified according to age, the duration of symptoms, and acromial morphology. Patients who were twenty years old or less and those who were forty-one to sixty years old fared better than those who were twenty-one to forty years old. Patients who were more than sixty years old had the poorest results. Sixty-seven (78 per cent) of the eighty-six patients in whom the symptoms had been present for less than four weeks had a satisfactory result, compared with 144 (63 per cent) of the 228 who had had the symptoms for one to six months and with 202 (67 per cent) of the 302 who had had the symptoms for more than six months. Thirty-two (91 per cent) of the thirty-five patients who had a type-I acromion had a successful result, compared with 173 (68 per cent) of the 256 who had a type-II acromion and with 208 (64 per cent) of the 325 who had a type-III acromion. Shoulder dominance, gender, and concomitant tenderness of the acromioclavicular joint did not affect the result significantly (p = 0.084, 0.555, and 0.365, respectively).