Modeling household transmission dynamics: Application to waterborne diarrheal disease in Central Africa.

INTRODUCTION: We describe a method for analyzing the within-household network dynamics of a disease transmission. We apply it to analyze the occurrences of endemic diarrheal disease in Cameroon, Central Africa based on observational, cross-sectional data available from household health surveys. METHODS: To analyze the data, we apply formalism of the dynamic SID (susceptible-infected-diseased) process that describes the disease steady-state while adjusting for the household age-structure and environment contamination, such as water contamination. The SID transmission rates are estimated via MCMC method with the help of the so-called synthetic likelihood approach. RESULTS: The SID model is fitted to a dataset on diarrhea occurrence from 63 households in Cameroon. We show that the model allows for quantification of the effects of drinking water contamination on both transmission and recovery rates for household diarrheal disease occurrence as well as for estimation of the rate of silent (unobserved) infections. CONCLUSIONS: The new estimation method appears capable of genuinely capturing the complex dynamics of disease transmission across various human, animal and environmental compartments at the household level. Our approach is quite general and can be used in other epidemiological settings where it is desirable to fit transmission rates using cross-sectional data. SOFTWARE SHARING: The R-scripts for carrying out the computational analysis described in the paper are available at https://github.com/cbskust/SID.

Associating potential 1,4-dioxane biodegradation activity with groundwater geochemical parameters at four different contaminated sites.

1,4-Dioxane (dioxane) is a groundwater contaminant of emerging concern for which bioremediation may become a practical remediation strategy. Therefore, it is important to advance our heuristic understanding of geochemical parameters that are most influential on the potential success of intrinsic bioremediation of dioxane-impacted sites. Here, Pearson's and Spearman's correlation and linear regression analyses were conducted to discern associations between 1,4-dioxane biodegradation activity measured in aerobic microcosms and groundwater geochemical parameters at four different contaminated sites. Dissolved oxygen, which is known to limit dioxane biodegradation, was excluded as a limiting factor in this analysis. Biodegradation activity was positively associated with dioxane concentrations (p < 0.01; R < 0.70) as well as the number of catabolic thmA gene copies (p < 0.01; R = 0.80) encoding dioxane monooxygenase. Thus, whereas environmental factors such as pH, temperature, and nutrients may influence dioxane biodegradation, these parameters did not exert as strong of an influence on potential biodegradation activity as the in situ concentration of substrate dioxane at the time of sampling. This analysis infers that aerobic sites with higher dioxane concentrations are more likely to select and sustain a thriving population of dioxane degraders, while sites with relatively low dioxane concentrations would be more difficult to attenuate naturally and may require alternative remediation strategies.

Cigarette Filter Ventilation and its Relationship to Increasing Rates of Lung Adenocarcinoma.

The 2014 Surgeon General's Report on smoking and health concluded that changing cigarette designs have caused an increase in lung adenocarcinomas, implicating cigarette filter ventilation that lowers smoking machine tar yields. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) now has the authority to regulate cigarette design if doing so would improve public health. To support a potential regulatory action, two weight-of-evidence reviews were applied for causally relating filter ventilation to lung adenocarcinoma. Published scientific literature (3284 citations) and internal tobacco company documents contributed to causation analysis evidence blocks and the identification of research gaps. Filter ventilation was adopted in the mid-1960s and was initially equated with making a cigarette safer. Since then, lung adenocarcinoma rates paradoxically increased relative to other lung cancer subtypes. Filter ventilation 1) alters tobacco combustion, increasing smoke toxicants; 2) allows for elasticity of use so that smokers inhale more smoke to maintain their nicotine intake; and 3) causes a false perception of lower health risk from "lighter" smoke. Seemingly not supportive of a causal relationship is that human exposure biomarker studies indicate no reduction in exposure, but these do not measure exposure in the lung or utilize known biomarkers of harm. Altered puffing and inhalation may make smoke available to lung cells prone to adenocarcinomas. The analysis strongly suggests that filter ventilation has contributed to the rise in lung adenocarcinomas among smokers. Thus, the FDA should consider regulating its use, up to and including a ban. Herein, we propose a research agenda to support such an effort.

Environmental Factors Associated With Natural Methane Occurrence in the Appalachian Basin.

The recent boom in shale gas development in the Marcellus Shale has increased interest in the methods to distinguish between naturally occurring methane in groundwater and stray methane associated with drilling and production operations. This study evaluates the relationship between natural methane occurrence and three principal environmental factors (groundwater redox state, water type, and topography) using two pre-drill datasets of 132 samples from western Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia and 1417 samples from northeastern Pennsylvania. Higher natural methane concentrations in residential wells are strongly associated with reducing conditions characterized by low nitrate and low sulfate ([NO3- ] < 0.5 mg/L; [SO42- ] < 2.5 mg/L). However, no significant relationship exists between methane and iron [Fe(II)], which is traditionally considered an indicator of conditions that have progressed through iron reduction. As shown in previous studies, water type is significantly correlated with natural methane concentrations, where sodium (Na) -rich waters exhibit significantly higher (p<0.001) natural methane concentrations than calcium (Ca)-rich waters. For water wells exhibiting Na-rich waters and/or low nitrate and low sulfate conditions, valley locations are associated with higher methane concentrations than upland topography. Consequently, we identify three factors ("Low NO3- & SO42- " redox condition, Na-rich water type, and valley location), which, in combination, offer strong predictive power regarding the natural occurrence of high methane concentrations. Samples exhibiting these three factors have a median methane concentration of 10,000 µg/L. These heuristic relationships may facilitate the design of pre-drill monitoring programs and the subsequent evaluation of post-drill monitoring results to help distinguish between naturally occurring methane and methane originating from anthropogenic sources or migration pathways.