A care coordination program to support patients with hepatitis B virus at Kaiser Permanente Mid-Atlantic States.

BACKGROUND: Eliminating hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a significant worldwide challenge requiring innovative approaches for vaccination, screening, disease management, and the prevention of related conditions. Programs that support patients in accessing needed clinical services can help optimize access to preventive services and treatment resources for hepatitis B. METHODS: Here, we outline a coordinator-supported program (HBV Pathway) that connects patients infected with HBV to laboratory testing, imaging, and specialty care for treatment initiation and/or liver cancer surveillance (screening of high-risk patients for liver cancer). This study describes the HBV Pathway steps and reports sociodemographic factors of patients by initiation and completion. RESULTS: Results showed a 72.5% completion rate (defined as completing all Pathway steps including the final specialty visit) among patients who initiated the Pathway. Differences in completion were observed by age, race, ethnicity, and service area, with higher rates for younger ages, Asian race, non-Hispanic ethnicity, and lower rates for patients within one service area. Of those who completed the specialty visit, 59.5% were referred for hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance. CONCLUSIONS: The HBV Pathway offers dual benefits- care coordination support for patients to promote Pathway completion and a standardized testing and referral program to reduce physician burden. This program provides an easy and reliable process for patients and physicians to obtain updated clinical information and initiate treatment and/or liver cancer screening if needed.

Updating survival estimates in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL) based on treatment-free interval length.

We hypothesized that the length of treatment-free survival following (a) initial diagnosis and (b) first-line treatment would be associated with improved subsequent five-year relative survival (RS5) in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL). 19,879 patients incident CLL/SLL cases (median age = 76 years) were identified from SEER-Medicare. RS5 improved from 0.73 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.74) at diagnosis to 0.81 (95% CI: 0.80, 0.82) at year 1 and 0.89 (95% CI: 0.83, 0.96) at year 10 among those who had not received treatment. In our analysis of survival patterns following first-line treatment, RS5 improved from 0.55 (95% CI: 0.53, 0.57) at initiation of first-line treatment to 0.84 (95% CI: 0.75, 0.92) among patients who had not been retreated at year 5 following first-line therapy. Longer periods of treatment-free survival following initial diagnosis and first-line treatment were both predictive of meaningfully improved prognosis in CLL/SLL patients.

Time to Second-line Treatment and Subsequent Relative Survival in Older Patients With Relapsed Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia/Small Lymphocytic Lymphoma.

BACKGROUND: Novel targeted therapies offer excellent short-term outcomes in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia and small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL). However, there is disagreement over how widely these therapies should be used in place of standard chemo-immunotherapy (CIT). We investigated whether stratification on the length of the interval between first-line (T1) and second-line (T2) treatments could identify a subgroup of older patients with relapsed CLL/SLL with an expectation of normal overall survival, and for whom CIT could be an acceptable treatment choice. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with relapsed CLL/SLL who received T2 were identified from the SEER-Medicare Linked Database. Five-year relative survival (RS5; ie, the ratio of observed survival to expected survival based on population life tables) was assessed after stratifying patients on the interval between T1 and T2. We then validated our findings in the Mayo Clinic CLL Database. RESULTS: Among 1974 SEER-Medicare patients (median age = 77 years) who received T2 for relapsed CLL/SLL, longer time-to-retreatment was associated with a modestly improved prognosis (P = .01). However, even among those retreated ≥ 3 years after T1, survival was poor compared with the general population (RS5 = 0.50 or lower in SEER-Medicare). Similar patterns were observed in the younger Mayo validation cohort, although prognosis was better overall among the Mayo patients, and patients with favorable fluorescence in situ hybridization retreated ≥ 3 years after T1 had close to normal expected survival (RS5 = 0.87). CONCLUSION: Further research is needed to quantify the degree to which targeted therapies provide meaningful improvements over CIT in long-term outcomes for older patients with relapsed CLL/SLL.

Geographic variation in the use of adjuvant therapy among elderly patients with resected non-small cell lung cancer.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to assess to what extent geographic variation in adjuvant treatment for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients would remain, after controlling for patient and area-level characteristics. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective cohort of 18,410 Medicare beneficiaries with resected, stage I-IIIA NSCLC was identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked database. Adjuvant therapies were classified as adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT), postoperative radiation therapy (PORT), or no adjuvant therapy. Predicted treatment probabilities were estimated for each patient given their clinical, demographic, and area-level characteristics with multivariate logistic regression. Area Treatment Ratios were used to estimate the propensity of patients in a local area to receive an adjuvant treatment, controlling for characteristics of patients in the area. Areas were categorized as low-, mid- and high-use and mapped for two representative SEER registries. RESULTS: Overall, 10%, 12%, and 78% of patients received ACT, PORT and no adjuvant therapy, respectively. Age, sex, stage, type and year of surgery, and comorbidity were associated with adjuvant treatment use. Even after adjusting for patient characteristics, substantial geographic treatment variation remained. High- and low-use areas were tightly juxtaposed within and across SEER registries, often within the same county. In some local areas, patients were up to eight times more likely to receive adjuvant therapy than expected, given their characteristics. On the other hand, almost a quarter of patients lived in local areas in which patients were more than three times less likely to receive ACT than would be predicted. CONCLUSION: Controlling for patient and area-level covariates did not remove geographic variation in adjuvant therapies for resected NSCLC patients. A greater proportion of patients were treated less than expected, rather than more than expected. Further research is needed to better understand its causes and potential impact on outcomes.

Hospital Characteristics Associated with Stage II/III Rectal Cancer Guideline Concordant Care: Analysis of Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results-Medicare Data.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests that high-volume facilities achieve better rectal cancer outcomes. METHODS: Logistic regression was used to evaluate association of facility type with treatment after adjusting for patient demographics, stage, and comorbidities. SEER-Medicare beneficiaries who were diagnosed with stage II/III rectal adenocarcinoma at age ≥66 years from 2005 to 2009 and had Parts A/B Medicare coverage for ≥1 year prediagnosis and postdiagnosis plus a claim for cancer-directed surgery were included. Institutions were classified according to National Cancer Institute (NCI) designation, presence of residency program, or medical school affiliation. RESULTS: Two thousand three hundred subjects (average age = 75) met the criteria. Greater proportions of those treated at NCI-designated facilities received transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-pelvis (62.1 vs. 29.9 %), neoadjuvant chemotherapy (63.9 vs. 41.8 %), and neoadjuvant radiation (70.8 vs. 46.3 %), all p < 0.0001. On multivariate analysis, odds ratios (95 % confidence intervals) for receiving TRUS or MRI, neoadjuvant chemotherapy, or neoadjuvant radiation among beneficiaries treated at NCI-designated facilities were 3.51 (2.60-4.73), 2.32 (1.71-3.16), and 2.66 (1.93-3.67), respectively. Results by residency and medical school affiliation were similar in direction to NCI designation. CONCLUSIONS: Those treated at hospitals with an NCI designation, residency program, or medical school affiliation received more guideline-concordant care. Initiatives involving provider education and virtual tumor boards may improve care.

Treatment of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma in the elderly: regimens without anthracyclines are common and not futile.

Anthracycline-containing regimens (ACRs) are recommended for patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). However, over 40% of elderly patients do not receive ACRs, possibly due to expected toxicities. We characterized treatment choices and compared the 3-year overall survival (OS) rates of 8262 Medicare beneficiaries diagnosed with DLBCL in 2000-2006 identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked database. Of the cohort, 45% had ACR with rituximab (ACR-R), 13% had ACR without R, 6% had non-ACR with R (non-ACR-R), 4% had R monotherapy, 3% had non-ACR and 29% had no systemic therapy. Patients not receiving ACR were older and/or had more comorbidities. The unadjusted OS was highest in ACR-R (65%), followed by ACR without R (55%) and non-ACR-R (44%). After adjusting patient covariates, ACR-R showed the best survival (63%). However, OS was comparable between non-ACR-R (52%) and ACR without R (52%). Non-ACR-R could be considered for patients who are poor candidates for ACR.

Beyond comorbidity: expanding the definition and measurement of complexity among older adults using administrative claims data.

BACKGROUND: Studies of patients with multiple chronic conditions using claims data are often missing important determinants of treatments and outcomes, such as function status and disease severity. We sought to identify and evaluate a class of function-related indicators (FRIs) from administrative claims data. POPULATION: The study cohort comprised US Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older with Parts A and B fee-for-service and Part D coverage, with a hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction during 2007. METHODS: Measures during the year before admission included the FRIs, demographics, conventional comorbidity measures, and prior hospitalization. Outcomes were receipt of cardiac catheterization during the index hospitalization and 12-month mortality. Model development used a random sample (n=72,056) with an equal sample for validation. RESULTS: In addition to prior cardiovascular conditions (85%), 40% had ≥1 comorbid condition, 30% were hospitalized in the prior 6 months, and 65% had ≥1 FRI [eg, delirium/dementia (22.7%), depression (16.7%), mobility limitation (16.1%), and chronic skin ulcers (12.6%)]. Including the FRIs improved mortality and cardiac catheterization prediction models (C-statistics 0.71 and 0.77, respectively). Patients with more cardiovascular conditions received less cardiac catheterization [minimally adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.83; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.82-0.83], as did patients with more comorbidities (minimally adjusted OR 0.70; 95% CI, 0.69-0.71), but this was attenuated by adjusting for functional status (fully adjusted OR for cardiovascular conditions 0.95; 95% CI, 0.94-0.96 and for comorbid conditions 0.94; 95% CI, 0.92-0.95). CONCLUSIONS: Claims data studies that include indicators of potentially diminished patient functional status better capture heterogeneity of patients with multiple chronic conditions.

Personal health records: a randomized trial of effects on elder medication safety.

PURPOSE: To examine the impact of a personal health record (PHR) on medication-use safety among older adults. BACKGROUND: Online PHRs have potential as tools to manage health information. We know little about how to make PHRs accessible for older adults and what effects this will have. METHODS: A PHR was designed and pretested with older adults and tested in a 6-month randomized controlled trial. After completing mailed baseline questionnaires, eligible computer users aged 65 and over were randomized 3:1 to be given access to a PHR (n=802) or serve as a standard care control group (n=273). Follow-up questionnaires measured change from baseline medication use, medication reconciliation behaviors, and medication management problems. RESULTS: Older adults were interested in keeping track of their health and medication information. A majority (55.2%) logged into the PHR and used it, but only 16.1% used it frequently. At follow-up, those randomized to the PHR group were significantly less likely to use multiple non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs-the most common warning generated by the system (viewed by 23% of participants). Compared with low/non-users, high users reported significantly more changes in medication use and improved medication reconciliation behaviors, and recognized significantly more side effects, but there was no difference in use of inappropriate medications or adherence measures. CONCLUSIONS: PHRs can engage older adults for better medication self-management; however, features that motivate continued use will be needed. Longer-term studies of continued users will be required to evaluate the impact of these changes in behavior on patient health outcomes.

Development and initial assessment of the medication user self-evaluation (MUSE) tool.

BACKGROUND: Using patient-reported data to supplement claims-based indicators may be helpful in identifying Medicare beneficiaries likely to benefit from medication therapy management (MTM) services. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to develop and initially assess a patient medication user self-evaluation (MUSE) tool to identify Medicare Part D beneficiaries who would benefit from a comprehensive medication review. METHODS: A random sample of 225 patient medication profiles was created from a survey of Medicare beneficiaries; the survey also included demographic characteristics, responses to adherence questions, and reported symptoms. Three clinical pharmacists used the patient profiles to make judgments regarding the likelihood (low, moderate, or high) that each patient would benefit from an MTM visit in the next 3 months. A total of 150 cases were used for model calibration, and 75 were used for validation. Ordinal logistic regression models were fit to predict the likelihood of benefit from an MTM visit by using different combinations of potential MUSE items. Final model selection was based on the Akaike information criterion and the percent agreement between model prediction and expert judgments in the validation data. Measures considered for inclusion in the MUSE tool were related to medication use, medical conditions, and health care utilization. RESULTS: The final MUSE items incorporated number of medications, number of physicians, number of pharmacies, number of hospitalizations in the past 6 months, having forgotten to take medications, cost-related problems, and number of medical conditions. CONCLUSION: The 7-item MUSE tool could be used in targeting MTM services, such as comprehensive medication reviews, among Medicare beneficiaries.

Standardizing Medicare payment information to support examining geographic variation in costs.

OBJECTIVES: Examination of efficiency in health care requires that cost information be normalized. Medicare payments include both geographic and policy-based facility type differentials (e.g., wage index and disproportionate share hospital), which can bias cost comparisons of hospitals and averages across geographic areas. Standardizing payment information to remove the area- and policy-based payment differentials should normalize much of the observed geographic variability in payments, allowing for a more accurate comparison of resource use between providers and across geographic regions. Use of standardized payments will ensure that observed payment variation is due to differences in practice patterns and service use, rather than Medicare payment differences over which the providers have no control. This paper describes a method for standardizing claim payments, and demonstrates the difference in actual versus standardized payments by geographic region. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We used a nationwide cohort of Medicare patients hospitalized with an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in 2007, then limited our study to those with Medicare Part A and Part B fee-for-service (FFS), and Part D coverage (n = 143,123). Standardized payment amounts were calculated for each Part A and Part B claim; standardized and actual payments were summed for all services for each patient beginning with the index hospitalization through 12 months post discharge. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Without standardization of payments, certain areas of the country are mischaracterized as either high or low healthcare resource-consuming areas. The difference between actual and standardized payments varies by care setting. CONCLUSIONS: Standardized payment amounts should be calculated when comparing Medicare resource use across geographic areas.

Survival implications associated with variation in mastectomy rates for early-staged breast cancer.

Despite a 20-year-old guideline from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Consensus Development Conference recommending breast conserving surgery with radiation (BCSR) over mastectomy for woman with early-stage breast cancer (ESBC) because it preserves the breast, recent evidence shows mastectomy rates increasing and higher-staged ESBC patients are more likely to receive mastectomy. These observations suggest that some patients and their providers believe that mastectomy has advantages over BCSR and these advantages increase with stage. These beliefs may persist because the randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that served as the basis for the NIH guideline were populated mainly with lower-staged patients. Our objective is to assess the survival implications associated with mastectomy choice by patient alignment with the RCT populations. We used instrumental variable methods to estimate the relationship between surgery choice and survival for ESBC patients based on variation in local area surgery styles. We find results consistent with the RCTs for patients closely aligned to the RCT populations. However, for patients unlike those in the RCTs, our results suggest that higher mastectomy rates are associated with reduced survival. We are careful to interpret our estimates in terms of limitations of our estimation approach.

Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma in the elderly: diffusion of treatment with rituximab and survival advances with and without anthracyclines.

Anthracycline-based chemotherapy (ABC) is the most effective therapy for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). The addition of rituximab to ABC in controlled trials has demonstrated superior survival, yet ABC is inconsistently utilized in elderly patients, and little is known about the penetrance or impact of rituximab with other treatments. We analyzed the treatment and survival patterns of 7559 patients with DLBCL over age 66 diagnosed from 1992 to 2002 using a linked Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database. Rituximab use was first detected in 1999 and by 2002 was incorporated in 79% of ABC-treated patients and 71% of patients treated with non-anthracycline chemotherapy, but only 12% of patients not receiving cytotoxic chemotherapy. ABC rates remained constant across time as did rates of no therapy, which were highest among the very old. Rituximab-associated survival improvements were seen among elderly treated with or without anthracyclines. Patients treated with rituximab but not anthracyclines had comparable survival to those treated with anthracycline but not rituximab.

Outcomes following local therapy for early-stage breast cancer in non-trial populations.

Recent studies suggest trends toward more mastectomies for primary breast cancer treatment. We assessed survival after mastectomy and breast-conserving surgery (BCS) with radiation for early-stage breast cancer among non-selected populations of women and among women similar to those in clinical trials. Using population-based data from Surveillance Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registries linked with Medicare administrative data from 1992 to 2005, we conducted propensity score analysis of survival following primary therapy for early-stage breast cancer, including BCS with radiation, BCS without radiation, mastectomy with radiation, and mastectomy without radiation. Adjusted survival was greatest among women who had BCS with radiation (median survival = 10.98 years). Compared with this group, mortality was higher among women who had mastectomy without radiation (median survival 10.04 years, adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.14-1.23), mastectomy with radiation (median survival 10.02 years, HR = 1.20, 95% CI = 1.14-1.27), and BCS without radiation (median survival 7.63 years, HR = 1.81, 95% CI = 1.70-1.92). Among women representative of those eligible for clinical trials (age ≤70 years, Charlson comorbidity score = 0/1, and stage 1 tumors), there were no differences in survival for women who underwent BCS with radiation or mastectomy. In conclusion, after careful adjustment for differences in patient, physician, and hospital characteristics, we found better survival for BCS with radiation versus mastectomy among older early-stage breast cancer patients, with no difference in survival for BCS with radiation versus mastectomy among women representative of those in clinical trials. These findings are reassuring in light of recent trends towards more aggressive primary breast cancer therapy.

Defining emergency department episodes by severity and intensity: A 15-year study of Medicare beneficiaries.

BACKGROUND: Episodes of Emergency Department (ED) service use among older adults previously have not been constructed, or evaluated as multi-dimensional phenomena. In this study, we constructed episodes of ED service use among a cohort of older adults over a 15-year observation period, measured the episodes by severity and intensity, and compared these measures in predicting subsequent hospitalization. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of the prospective cohort study entitled the Survey on Assets and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old (AHEAD). Baseline (1993) data on 5,511 self-respondents >or=70 years old were linked to their Medicare claims for 1991-2005. Claims then were organized into episodes of ED care according to Medicare guidelines. The severity of ED episodes was measured with a modified-NYU algorithm using ICD9-CM diagnoses, and the intensity of the episodes was measured using CPT codes. Measures were evaluated against subsequent hospitalization to estimate comparative predictive validity. RESULTS: Over 15 years, three-fourths (4,171) of the 5,511 AHEAD participants had at least 1 ED episode, with a mean of 4.5 episodes. Cross-classification indicated the modified-NYU severity measure and the CPT-based intensity measure captured different aspects of ED episodes (kappa = 0.18). While both measures were significant independent predictors of hospital admission from ED episodes, the CPT measure had substantially higher predictive validity than the modified-NYU measure (AORs 5.70 vs. 3.31; p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated an innovative approach for how claims data can be used to construct episodes of ED care among a sample of older adults. We also determined that the modified-NYU measure of severity and the CPT measure of intensity tap different aspects of ED episodes, and that both measures were predictive of subsequent hospitalization.

Prior hospitalization and the risk of heart attack in older adults: a 12-year prospective study of Medicare beneficiaries.

BACKGROUND: We investigated whether prior hospitalization was a risk factor for heart attacks among older adults in the survey on Assets and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old. METHODS: Baseline (1993-1994) interview data were linked to 1993-2005 Medicare claims for 5,511 self-respondents aged 70 years and older and not enrolled in managed Medicare. Primary hospital International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) 410.xx discharge codes identified postbaseline hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarctions (AMIs). Participants were censored at death or postbaseline managed Medicare enrollment. Traditional risk factors and other covariates were included. Recent postbaseline non-AMI hospitalizations (ie, prior hospitalizations) were indicated by a time-dependent marker, and sensitivity analyses identified their peak effect. RESULTS: The total number of person-years of surveillance was 44,740 with a mean of 8.1 (median = 9.1) per person. Overall, 483 participants (8.8%) suffered postbaseline heart attacks, with 423 participants (7.7%) having their first-ever AMI. As expected, significant traditional risk factors were sex (men); race (whites); marital status (never being married); education (noncollege); geography (living in the South); and reporting a baseline history of angina, arthritis, diabetes, and heart disease. Risk factors were similar for both any postbaseline and first-ever postbaseline AMI analyses. The time-dependent recent non-AMI hospitalization marker did not alter the effects of the traditional risk factors but increased AMI risk by 366% (adjusted hazards ratio = 4.66, p < .0001). Discussion. Our results suggest that some small percentage (<3%) of heart attacks among older adults might be prevented if effective short-term postdischarge planning and monitoring interventions were developed and implemented.

Continuity of care with a primary care physician and mortality in older adults.

BACKGROUND: We examined whether older adults who had continuity of care with a primary care physician (PCP) had lower mortality. METHODS: Secondary analyses were conducted using baseline interview data (1993-1994) from the nationally representative Survey on Assets and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old (AHEAD). The analytic sample included 5,457 self-respondents 70 years old or more who were not enrolled in managed care plans. AHEAD data were linked to Medicare claims for 1991-2005, providing up to 12 years of follow-up. Two time-dependent measures of continuity addressed whether there was more than an 8-month interval between any two visits to the same PCP during the prior 2-year period. The "present exposure" measure calculated this criterion on a daily basis and could switch "on" or "off" daily, whereas the "cumulative exposure" measure reflected the percentage of follow-up days, also on a daily basis allowing it to switch on or off daily, for which the criterion was met. RESULTS: Two thousand nine hundred and fifty-four (54%) participants died during the follow-up period. Using the cumulative exposure measure, 27% never had continuity of care, whereas 31%, 20%, 14%, and 8%, respectively, had continuity for 1%-33%, 34%-67%, 68%-99%, and 100% of their follow-up days. Adjusted for demographics, socioeconomic status, social support, health lifestyle, and morbidity, both measures of continuity were associated (p < .001) with lower mortality (adjusted hazard ratios of 0.84 for the present exposure measure and 0.31, 0.39, 0.46, and 0.62, respectively, for the 1%-33%, 34%-67%, 68%-99%, and 100% categories of the cumulative exposure measure). CONCLUSION: Continuity of care with a PCP, as assessed by two distinct measures, was associated with substantial reductions in long-term mortality.

The aftermath of hip fracture: discharge placement, functional status change, and mortality.

The authors prospectively explored the consequences of hip fracture with regard to discharge placement, functional status, and mortality using the Survey on Assets and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD). Data from baseline (1993) AHEAD interviews and biennial follow-up interviews were linked to Medicare claims data from 1993-2005. There were 495 postbaseline hip fractures among 5,511 respondents aged >or=69 years. Mean age at hip fracture was 85 years; 73% of fracture patients were white women, 45% had pertrochanteric fractures, and 55% underwent surgical pinning. Most patients (58%) were discharged to a nursing facility, with 14% being discharged to their homes. In-hospital, 6-month, and 1-year mortality were 2.7%, 19%, and 26%, respectively. Declines in functional-status-scale scores ranged from 29% on the fine motor skills scale to 56% on the mobility index. Mean scale score declines were 1.9 for activities of daily living, 1.7 for instrumental activities of daily living, and 2.2 for depressive symptoms; scores on mobility, large muscle, gross motor, and cognitive status scales worsened by 2.3, 1.6, 2.2, and 2.5 points, respectively. Hip fracture characteristics, socioeconomic status, and year of fracture were significantly associated with discharge placement. Sex, age, dementia, and frailty were significantly associated with mortality. This is one of the few studies to prospectively capture these declines in functional status after hip fracture.

Inappropriate medication use as a risk factor for self-reported adverse drug effects in older adults.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the association between inappropriate medication use and self-reported adverse drug effects (ADEs). DESIGN: Prospective cohort study with three annual mailed surveys. SETTING: Population-based sample of Iowa Medicare beneficiaries. PARTICIPANTS: Cohort members (n5626) with established mobility disability and complete pharmacy dispensing records, continuous Medicare eligibility, and survey data. MEASUREMENTS: The number of unique drug ingredients dispensed and inappropriate use were assessed for the year before the ADE survey. Inappropriate medication use was defined according to published criteria: contraindicated drugs for elderly people, drug-disease interactions (constructed from linked Medicare claims), drug-drug interactions, and therapeutic duplications. An ADE was defined from the following question: "In the past 12 months, have you experienced an unwanted effect or side effect of a medication?" RESULTS: Of respondents to the ADE survey, 22.0% reported having experienced an ADE in the past year, and 322 (51.4%) received at least one potential inappropriate medication. Factors associated univariately with ADE self-report were number of medications, number of mobility limitations, any inappropriate medication use, and each of the individual domain appropriateness indicators, as well as number of different domains of inappropriate use. The adjusted odds ratio for developing an ADE was 2.14 (95% confidence interval=1.26-3.65) for those with inappropriate use versus no inappropriate use. CONCLUSION: Efforts to reduce ADEs by reducing medication inappropriateness should be encouraged as a complement to efforts focused on reducing the number of medications prescribed.

A 12-year prospective study of stroke risk in older Medicare beneficiaries.

BACKGROUND: 5.8 M living Americans have experienced a stroke at some time in their lives, 780K had either their first or a recurrent stroke this year, and 150K died from strokes this year. Stroke costs about $66B annually in the US, and also results in serious, long-term disability. Therefore, it is prudent to identify all possible risk factors and their effects so that appropriate intervention points may be targeted. METHODS: Baseline (1993-1994) interview data from the nationally representative Survey on Assets and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) were linked to 1993-2005 Medicare claims. Participants were 5,511 self-respondents >or= 70 years old. Two ICD9-CM case-identification approaches were used. Two approaches to stroke case-identification based on ICD9-CM codes were used, one emphasized sensitivity and the other emphasized specificity. Participants were censored at death or enrollment into managed Medicare. Baseline risk factors included sociodemographic, socioeconomic, place of residence, health behavior, disease history, and functional and cognitive status measures. A time-dependent marker reflecting post-baseline non-stroke hospitalizations was included to reflect health shocks, and sensitivity analyses were conducted to identify its peak effect. Competing risk, proportional hazards regression was used. RESULTS: Post-baseline strokes occurred for 545 (9.9%; high sensitivity approach) and 374 (6.8%; high specificity approach) participants. The greatest static risks involved increased age, being widowed or never married, living in multi-story buildings, reporting a baseline history of diabetes, hypertension, or stroke, and reporting difficulty picking up a dime, refusing to answer the delayed word recall test, or having poor cognition. Risks were similar for both case-identification approaches and for recurrent and first-ever vs. only first-ever strokes. The time-dependent health shock (recent hospitalization) marker did not alter the static model effect estimates, but increased stroke risk by 200% or more. CONCLUSION: The effect of our health shock marker (a time-dependent recent hospitalization indicator) was large and did not mediate the effects of the traditional risk factors. This suggests an especially vulnerable post-hospital transition period from adverse effects associated with both their underlying health shock (the reasons for the recent hospital admission) and the consequences of their treatments.