Projecting Long-term Care Costs among Older Adults with ADL Disability and Cognitive Impairment in China.

BACKGROUND: Mounting evidence suggests that cognitive impairment is strongly associated with difficulties in performing activities of daily living (ADL disability). This study aims to estimate and project the trend in the number of older adults in China with ADL disability and cognitive impairment and the associated long-term care (LTC) costs in the next 20 years. METHODS: We used data from 37,942 adults aged ≥ 65 years from waves 2005-2018 of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Surveys (CLHLS). We used the Markov model to simulate the population of China and track the transition of Chinese older adults in the next 20 years between four disability-cognition states. We employed a two-part model to project direct and indirect LTC costs per capita. RESULTS: The proportion of disabled older adults without cognitive impairment (from 4.0% in 2022 to 4.3% in 2040) was projected to be slightly higher than that of those disabled and cognitively impaired (from 3.5% in 2022 to 4.1% in 2040). The indirect LTC cost was projected to increase from 316 billion yuan in 2022 to 4,399 billion yuan in 2040 for disabled older adults with cognitive impairment and from 197 billion yuan in 2022 to 1,697 billion yuan in 2040 for disabled older adults without cognitive impairment. CONCLUSIONS: Policymakers could include the assessment of cognition in the LTC needs assessment and allocate more compensation to LTC insurance participants with cognitive impairment.

Social environment, lifestyle, and genetic predisposition with dementia risk: A long-term longitudinal study among older adults.

BACKGROUND: The role of social environment, i.e., the aggregate effect of social determinants of health (SDOHs), in determining dementia is unclear. METHODS: We developed a novel polysocial risk score for dementia based on 19 SDOH among 5,199 participants in the Health and Retirement Study, US, to measure the social environmental risk. We used a survival analysis approach to assess the association between social environment and dementia risk in 2006-2020. We further studied the interaction between social environment and lifestyles, and explored racial disparities. RESULTS: The study participants (mean age=73.4 years, SD=8.3; 58.0% female; 11.6% African American) were followed up for an average of 6.2 years, and 1,089 participants developed dementia. Every one-point increase in the polysocial risk score (ranging from 0-10) was associated with a 21.6% higher risk (aHR=1.21, 95% CI=1.15-1.26) of developing dementia, other things being equal. Among participants with high social environmental risk, regular exercise and moderate drinking were associated with a 43-60% lower risk of developing dementia (p<0.001). In addition, African Americans were 1.3 times (aHR=2.28, 95% CI=1.96-2.66) more likely to develop dementia than European Americans, other things being equal. DISCUSSION: An adverse social environment is linked to higher dementia risk, but healthy lifestyles can partially offset the increased social environmental risk. The polysocial risk score can complement the existing risk tools to identify high-risk older populations, and guide the design of targeted social environmental interventions, particularly focusing on improving the companionship of the older people, to prevent dementia.

Exploring the association between regional fat distribution and atrial fibrillation risks: a comprehensive cohort study.

Background: The contribution of total fat mass and regional fat distribution to the risk of AF has rarely been studied. Methods: This prospective cohort study(N=494,063) evaluated the association of total fat mass measured by fat percentage (FP) and regional fat measured by arm fat percentage (AFP), trunk fat percentage (TFP), and leg fat percentage (LFP) with incident AF. A subgroup (N = 25,581) underwent MRI, which allowed us to further assess whether visceral adipose tissue (VAT) and abdominal subcutaneous adipose tissue (ASAT) of the trunk fat exert different effects on AF incidence. Results: Over, a median 12.9 ± 1.86 years of follow-up, 29,658 participants (cumulative rate: 6.0%) developed AF. Each 1-standard deviation (SD) increase in LFP was associated with a 16% lower risk of AF (HR: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.82, 0.85). The association between FP and AF was weaker than that between LFP and AF (HR: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.89, 0.92). AFP and TFP only had a marginal association with a lower incidence of AF. Both the VAT and ASAT showed a U-shaped relationship with incident AF. Conclusions: Fat mass, mainly leg fat mass, was associated with a lower risk of AF. ASAT did not exert protective effects.

Invited Commentary: Is the Polysocial Score Approach Valuable for Advancing Social Determinants of Health Research?

Social determinants of health (SDOH) encompass the social environmental factors and lived experiences that collectively shape an individual's health. Recently, the polysocial score approach has been introduced as an innovative method for capturing the cumulative impact of a broad spectrum of social factors. This approach offers a promising opportunity to complement and enhance conventional methodologies in the advancement of SDOH research. In this issue of the Journal, Jawadekar et al. (Am J Epidemiol. XXXX;XXX(XX):XX-X-XXXX) evaluated the value of the polysocial score for predicting cognitive performance and mortality among middle-aged and older adults. Models built on a smaller set of social determinants, including race, gender, and education, performed comparably to the polysocial score models where a more complex set of social factors were included. In this invited commentary, I welcome the evaluation of the predictive ability of the polysocial score and the discussion of its merits and limitations. I also summarize the practical utility of the polysocial score in predicting health outcomes and its mechanistic significance in unveiling the relationship between genetics, social environment, and lifestyles in shaping an individual's health and elucidate health disparities. Lastly, I propose several avenues for future research.

Plasma proteomic signature of human longevity.

The identification of protein targets that exhibit anti-aging clinical potential could inform interventions to lengthen the human health span. Most previous proteomics research has been focused on chronological age instead of longevity. We leveraged two large population-based prospective cohorts with long follow-ups to evaluate the proteomic signature of longevity defined by survival to 90 years of age. Plasma proteomics was measured using a SOMAscan assay in 3067 participants from the Cardiovascular Health Study (discovery cohort) and 4690 participants from the Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study (replication cohort). Logistic regression identified 211 significant proteins in the CHS cohort using a Bonferroni-adjusted threshold, of which 168 were available in the replication cohort and 105 were replicated (corrected p value <0.05). The most significant proteins were GDF-15 and N-terminal pro-BNP in both cohorts. A parsimonious protein-based prediction model was built using 33 proteins selected by LASSO with 10-fold cross-validation and validated using 27 available proteins in the validation cohort. This protein model outperformed a basic model using traditional factors (demographics, height, weight, and smoking) by improving the AUC from 0.658 to 0.748 in the discovery cohort and from 0.755 to 0.802 in the validation cohort. We also found that the associations of 169 out of 211 proteins were partially mediated by physical and/or cognitive function. These findings could contribute to the identification of biomarkers and pathways of aging and potential therapeutic targets to delay aging and age-related diseases.

Associations between meat consumption and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in middle-aged and older adults with frailty.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to explore the associations between different types of meat consumption and mortality risk among people with frailty. DESIGN: Longitudinal study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We included 19,913 physically frail participants from the UK Biobank. MEASUREMENTS: We used the validated brief food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) to measure meat consumption. Baseline diet data from 2006 to 2010 were collected, and participants were followed up until March 23, 2021. Cox proportional hazards regression models were conducted to examine the associations of meat consumption with mortality risk. RESULTS: We identified 3,622 all-cause deaths, 1,453 cancer deaths, and 1,663 cardiovascular deaths during a median follow-up time of 11.2 years. Higher consumption of unprocessed poultry (per 25 g/day increment) was associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75-0.88), cancer mortality (HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.74-0.96), and cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.63-0.81). Consumption of unprocessed red meat had a U-shaped relationship with mortality. Moderate consumption of unprocessed red meat 1.0-1.9 times/week was associated with a 14% (95% CI: 3 %-24%) lower risk of all-cause mortality than the lowest consumption frequency group (0-0.9 times/week). The hazard of cancer and CV mortality was also lower in the 1.0-1.9 times/week group, though the associations were not statistically significant. More frequent consumption of processed meat was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.07-1.34) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.02-1.42). Fish consumption was not associated with all types of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Higher consumption of processed meat, not fish, was associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. In contrast, higher consumption of unprocessed poultry and moderate consumption of unprocessed red meat was associated with reduced all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular mortality. These findings warrant further investigation to establish optimal dietary patterns for frail individuals.

Associations between healthy lifestyle and mortality across different social environments: a study among adults with frailty from the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Among people living with frailty, adherence to a healthy lifestyle may be a low-cost and effective strategy to decrease frailty-induced health risks across different social environments. METHODS: We included 15 594 frail participants at baseline from the UK Biobank study. We used four lifestyle factors to create a composite healthy lifestyle score and 17 social factors to construct a polysocial score. We classified the lifestyle score into two levels (unhealthy and healthy) and the polysocial score into three levels (low, intermediate and high). We used Cox regression to determine the association of each lifestyle factor and lifestyle score with all-cause mortality, respectively. We also examined the associations across polysocial score categories. We evaluated the joint association of the lifestyle score and the categorical polysocial score with all-cause mortality. RESULTS: During up to 14.41 follow-up years, we documented 3098 all-cause deaths. After multivariable adjustment, we found a significant association between not smoking and adequate physical activity with all-cause mortality across polysocial score categories, respectively. We also found a significant association between a healthy diet and all-cause mortality among frail participants living in an intermediate social environment. A healthy lifestyle was associated with a lower all-cause mortality risk across polysocial score categories, especially among those with a low polysocial score. CONCLUSIONS: Adherence to a healthy lifestyle, particularly not smoking, adequate physical activity and a healthy diet, may provide a feasible solution to decreasing mortality risk among frail adults across different social environments, especially for those in the socially disadvantaged group.

Diagnostic test accuracy of serum creatinine and cystatin C-based index for sarcopenia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Sarcopenia is an important prognostic factor, but its optimal screening methods remain challenging. Several new indices developed based on serum creatinine (Cr) and cystatin C (CysC) have been proposed to be diagnostic biomarkers for sarcopenia screening. OBJECTIVE: This review aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of serum Cr- and CysC-based indices for sarcopenia diagnosis. METHODS: We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCIE and SCOPUS from inception to 2 April 2023. Methodological quality was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 tool. A bivariate random-effects model was used to synthesise the pooled sensitivity, specificity and area under the curves of the summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC-AUC). RESULTS: We retrieved 936 publications and included 16 studies with 5,566 participants (mean age ranged: 51.0-78.4 years, 50.2% men). The prevalence of sarcopenia ranged from 7.8 to 69.5%. All included studies presented a moderate to high risk of bias. The serum Cr- and CysC-based indices showed moderate diagnostic accuracy for sarcopenia (pooled sensitivity: 0.67, 95% CI 0.57-0.75; pooled specificity: 076, 95% CI 0.67-0.83; pooled SROC-AUC: 0.78, 95% CI 0.74-0.81). The Cr/CysC ratio is the most widely studied index, followed by the Cr × eGFRcys index. Overall, both indicators had satisfactory and comparable performance in screening sarcopenia. CONCLUSION: Serum Cr- and CysC-based indices showed moderate diagnostic accuracy for sarcopenia. The most studied indices-the Cr/CysC ratio and Cr × eGFRcys index-had comparable diagnostic accuracy for evaluating sarcopenia and may serve as surrogate markers for sarcopenia. However, further validation is required to verify these findings.

The association between sarcopenia and incident of depressive symptoms: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies have shown that sarcopenia was associated with depression among older adults. However, most of these investigations used a cross-sectional design, limiting the ability to establish a causal relation, the present study examined whether sarcopenia was associated with incident depressive symptoms. METHODS: This is a prospective cohort study with participants from the Western China Health and Aging Trends (WCHAT) study. Participants could complete anthropometric measurements and questionnaires were included. The exposure was sarcopenia, defined according to the Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia in 2019, the outcome was depressive symptoms, evaluated by GDS-15. We excluded depression and depressive symptoms at baseline and calculated the risk of incident depressive symptoms during the follow-up year. RESULTS: A total of 2612 participants (mean age of 62.14 ± 8.08 years) were included, of which 493 with sarcopenia. 78 (15.82%) participants with sarcopenia had onset depressive symptoms within the next year. After multivariable adjustment, sarcopenia increased the risk of depressive symptoms (RR = 1.651, 95%CI = 1.087-2.507, P = 0.0187) in overall participants. Such relationship still exists in gender and sarcopenia severity subgroups. Low muscle mass increased the risk of depressive symptoms (RR = 1.600, 95%CI = 1.150-2.228, P = 0.0053), but low muscle strength had no effect (RR = 1.250, 95%CI = 0.946-1.653, P = 0.117). CONCLUSIONS: Sarcopenia is an independent risk factor for depressive symptoms, Precautions to early detect and targeted intervene for sarcopenia should continue to be employed in adult with sarcopenia to achieve early prevention for depression and reduce the incidence of adverse clinical outcomes.

Joint Association of Physical Frailty and Self-Rated Health With Mortality Among Community-Dwelling Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between subjective and objective health is complex and not always matched. Although frailty and self-rated health (SRH) have been separately associated with adverse outcomes, their joint effects remained unclear. METHODS: Participants were 5 300 adults ≥60 years from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2011. Frailty, measured by the validated physical frailty phenotype approach, was classified as nonfrail, prefrail, and frail. SRH was categorized into 3 groups: excellent/very good/good, fair, and poor/very poor. We used the Cox models to examine the independent and joint association of frailty and SRH with mortality. We used the interaction approach to determine whether the association of SRH with mortality differed by frailty. Subgroup analyses were conducted by depression and cognitive impairment. RESULTS: About 8.1% of frail participants reported excellent/very good/good health; 21.2% of the nonfrail reported poor/very poor health. Prefrailty and frailty were associated with a 1.63- and 2.38-fold increase in the hazard of mortality than the nonfrail, respectively, after adjusting for SRH. Reporting fair and poor/very poor health was associated with a 29% and 100% increase in the hazard of mortality, respectively, after adjusting for frailty. No significant interaction was found. Prefrail and frail older adults with excellent/very good/good health had a similar mortality as the nonfrail with poor/very poor SRH. The association of SRH with mortality was less pronounced among individuals with depression or cognitive impairment. CONCLUSIONS: SRH is a potential marker of resilience among people living with frailty that may be a target for ameliorating health risks induced by frailty.

Association of Childhood Adversity With Frailty and the Mediating Role of Unhealthy Lifestyle: A Lifespan Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Childhood adversity and lifestyle have been associated with frailty in later life, but not much is known about factors that may explain these associations. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the association of childhood adversity with frailty, and the mediating role of unhealthy lifestyle in the association. METHODS: This lifespan analysis included 152,914 adults aged 40-69 years old from the UK Biobank. We measured childhood adversity with five items: physical neglect, emotional neglect, sexual abuse, physical abuse, and emotional abuse through online mental health survey. Frailty was measured by the frailty index; an unhealthy lifestyle score (range: 0-5) was calculated based on unhealthy body mass index, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, and unhealthy diet at the baseline survey. Multiple logistic regression and mediation analysis were performed. RESULTS: A total of 10,078 participants (6.6%) were defined as having frailty. Participants with any childhood adversity had higher odds of frailty. For example, in the fully adjusted model, with a one-point increase in cumulative score of childhood adversity, the odds of frailty increased by 38% (odds ratio: 1.38; 95% Confidence Interval: 1.36, 1.40). Unhealthy lifestyle partially mediated the associations of childhood adversity with frailty (mediation proportion: 4.4%-7.0%). The mediation proportions were largest for physical (8.2%) and sexual (8.1%) abuse. CONCLUSIONS: Childhood adversity was positively associated with frailty, and unhealthy lifestyle partially mediated the association. This newly identified pathway highlights the potential of lifestyle intervention strategies among those who experienced childhood adversity (in particular, physical, and sexual abuse) to promote healthy aging.

Association between multimorbidity and informal long-term care use in China: a nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The impact of multimorbidity on long-term care (LTC) use is understudied, despite its well-documented negative effects on functional disabilities. The current study aims to assess the association between multimorbidity and informal LTC use in China. We also explored the socioeconomic and regional disparities. METHODS: The study included 10,831 community-dwelling respondents aged 45 years and older from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2011, 2015, and 2018 for analysis. We used a two-part model with random effects to estimate the association between multimorbidity and informal LTC use. Heterogeneity of the association by socioeconomic position (education and income) and region was explored via a subgroup analysis. We further converted the change of informal LTC hours associated with multimorbidity into monetary value and calculated the 95% uncertainty interval (UI). RESULTS: The reported prevalence of multimorbidity was 60·0% (95% CI: 58·9%, 61·2%) in 2018. We found multimorbidity was associated with an increased likelihood of receiving informal LTC (OR = 2·13; 95% CI: 1·97, 2·30) and more hours of informal LTC received (IRR = 1·20; 95% CI: 1·06, 1·37), ceteris paribus. Participants in the highest income quintile received more hours of informal LTC care (IRR = 1·62; 95% CI: 1·31, 1·99). The estimated monetary value of increased informal LTC hours among participants with multimorbidity was equivalent to 3·7% (95% UI: 2·2%, 5·4%) of China's GDP in 2018. CONCLUSION: Our findings substantiate the threat of multimorbidity to LTC burden. It is imperative to strengthen LTC services provision, especially among older adults with multimorbidity and ensure equal access among those with lower income.

Changes of ubiquitylated proteins in atrial fibrillation associated with heart valve disease: proteomics in human left atrial appendage tissue.

Background: Correlations between posttranslational modifications and atrial fibrillation (AF) have been demonstrated in recent studies. However, it is still unclear whether and how ubiquitylated proteins relate to AF in the left atrial appendage of patients with AF and valvular heart disease. Methods: Through LC-MS/MS analyses, we performed a study on tissues from eighteen subjects (9 with sinus rhythm and 9 with AF) who underwent cardiac valvular surgery. Specifically, we explored the ubiquitination profiles of left atrial appendage samples. Results: In summary, after the quantification ratios for the upregulated and downregulated ubiquitination cutoff values were set at >1.5 and <1:1.5, respectively, a total of 271 sites in 162 proteins exhibiting upregulated ubiquitination and 467 sites in 156 proteins exhibiting downregulated ubiquitination were identified. The ubiquitylated proteins in the AF samples were enriched in proteins associated with ribosomes, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), glycolysis, and endocytosis. Conclusions: Our findings can be used to clarify differences in the ubiquitination levels of ribosome-related and HCM-related proteins, especially titin (TTN) and myosin heavy chain 6 (MYH6), in patients with AF, and therefore, regulating ubiquitination may be a feasible strategy for AF.

Prevalence of sufficient physical activity among general adult population and sub-populations with chronic conditions or disability in the USA.

BACKGROUND: Recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) released an updated global guideline on physical activity and sedentary behavior, including recommendations for sub-populations living with chronic conditions or disabilities. We aimed to examine the prevalence of meeting the WHO recommendations among these sub-populations in the USA. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study using data from the 2017 to 2018 cycle of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). RESULTS: We revealed variations in physical activity levels among individuals with chronic conditions and disability. US adults with diabetes, hypertension or disability had a lower prevalence of recommended physical activity levels than the general population. In addition, certain demographic groups such as being female, older and having lower socioeconomic status were associated with a lower likelihood of meeting the WHO recommendations on physical activity. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings underscore the importance of promoting physical activity levels among US adults, especially those with older age, low socioeconomic status, hypertension and disability.

The accuracy of screening instruments for sarcopenia: a diagnostic systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: This review aimed to summarise the diagnostic accuracy of screening tools for sarcopenia. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review along with a critical appraisal of published studies on screening tools for sarcopenia. We assessed the measurement properties of screening instruments using the consensus-based standards for selecting health measurement instruments (COSMIN) checklist. We evaluated the risk bias of the included studies using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 (QUADAS-2) tool. The diagnostic test accuracy of instruments for sarcopenia was reported using sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR) and negative likelihood ratio (NLR). RESULTS: We screened 7,120 titles and abstracts; 42 studies including five screening tools for sarcopenia were included. The overall study quality assessed by the QUADAS-2 tool was moderate to good. Of the five screening tools, three instruments had specificities ≥85%: 92% [95% confidence interval (CI): 63-99%] for the SARC-F modified version, 87% (95% CI: 82-90%) for the SARC-F and 85% (95% CI: 77-90%) for the Ishii score. Three tools had sensitivity ≥75%, namely, MSRA 82% (95% CI: 69-90%), Ishii score 79% (95% CI: 62-89%) and U-TEST 76%. PLR higher than 5.0 were present for the Ishii score and SARC-F modified versions; the Ishii score also had the best NLR of 0.25 of all scales. CONCLUSION: The MSRA and Ishii score had excellent sensitivity for sarcopenia screening at an early stage; SARC-F modified versions and Ishii score had superior specificity for sarcopenia diagnosis.

Association between individual resilience and depression or anxiety among general adult population during COVID-19: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic exacerbated depression and anxiety worldwide. Resilience is important to maintain mental health during uncertain times, but limited study has systematically reviewed its association with depression or anxiety with an emphasis on the general population. METHODS: We searched PubMed and Embase for quantitative or mixed-methods studies on the general adult population published between 1 January 2020 and 31 April 2022 (PROSPERO ID: CRD 42022340935). National Institute of the Health quality assessment tools was used to assess the risk of bias. We qualitatively synthesized findings by outcome and study design. RESULTS: A total of 2945 studies were screened and 35 studies were included in the narrative analysis (5 on depression, 9 on anxiety, and 21 on both). Overall, 21 studies identified statistically significant inverse associations between resilience and depression, while 24 studies found statistically significant inverse associations between resilience and anxiety. Eight studies reported no statistically significant relationships between resilience with depression or anxiety. CONCLUSIONS: Resilience was found to be inversely associated with depression and anxiety during the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings highlight the importance of resilience-enhancing intervention in migrating the global mental health burden from outbreaks of infectious diseases.

Investigating association between gut microbiota and sarcopenia-related traits: a Mendelian randomization study.

Background: Observational studies have indicated a potential link between gut microbiota and sarcopenia. However, the underlying mechanisms and a causal relationship have not been established. Thus, the objective of this study is to examine the possible causal association between gut microbiota and sarcopenia-related traits, including low hand-grip strength and appendicular lean mass (ALM), to shed light on the gut-muscle axis. Methods: To investigate the potential impact of gut microbiota on low hand-grip strength and ALM, we utilized a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) approach. Summary statistics were obtained from genome-wide association studies of gut microbiota, low hand-grip strength, and ALM. The primary MR analysis employed the random-effects inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method. To assess the robustness, we conducted sensitivity analyses using the MR pleiotropy residual sum and outlier (MR-PRESSO) test to detect and correct for horizontal pleiotropy, as well as the MR-Egger intercept test and leave-one-out analysis. Results: Alcaligenaceae, Family XIII, and Paraprevotella were positively associated with the risk of low hand-grip strength (P-values < 0.05). Streptococcaceae were negatively associated with low hand-grip strength (P-values < 0.05). Eight bacterial taxa (Actinomycetales, Actinomycetaceae, Bacteroidaceae, Porphyromonadaceae, Prevotellaceae, Bacteroides, Marvinbryantia, and Phascolarctobacterium) were associated with a higher risk of ALM (P-values < 0.05). Eubacterium fissicatena group was negatively associated with ALM (P-values < 0.05). Conclusion: We found several gut microbiota components causally associated with sarcopenia-related traits. Our findings provided insights into novel strategies for the prevention and treatment of sarcopenia through the regulation of the gut microbiota, contributing to a better understanding of the gut-muscle axis.

Prediction models of all-cause mortality among older adults in nursing home setting: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background and Aims: Few studies have meta-analyzed different prognostic models developed for older adults, especially nursing home residents. We aimed to systematically review and meta-analyze the performance of all published models that predicted all-cause mortality among older nursing home residents. Methods: We systematically searched PubMed and EMBASE from the databases' inception to January 1, 2020 to capture studies developing and/or validating a prognostic/prediction model for all-cause mortality among nursing home residents. We then carried out both qualitative and quantitative analyses evaluating these models' risks of bias and applicability. Results: The systematic search yielded 23,975 articles. We identified 28 indices that predicted the risk of all-cause mortality from 14 days to 39 months among older adults in nursing homes. The most used predictors were age, sex, body weight, swallowing problem, congestive heart failure, shortness of breath, body mass index, and activities of daily living. Of the 28 indices, 8 (29%) and 3 (11%) were internally and externally validated, respectively. None of the indices was validated in more than one cohort. Of the 28 indices, 22 (79%) reported the C-statistic, while only 6 (6%) reported the 95% confidence interval for the C statistic in the development cohorts. In the validation cohorts, 11 (39%) reported the C-statistic and 8 (29%) reported the 95% confidence interval. The meta-analyzed C statistic for all indices is 0.733 (95% prediction interval: 0.669-0.797). All studies/indices had high risks of bias and high concern for applicability according to PROBAST. Conclusion: We identified 28 indices for predicting all-cause mortality among older nursing home residents. The overall quality of evidence was low due to a high degree of bias and poor reporting of model performance statistics. Before any prediction model could be recommended in routine care, future research is needed to rigorously validate existing prediction models and evaluate their applicability and develop new prediction models.

Trends in global health research among universities in China: a bibliometric analysis.

BACKGROUND: There has been considerable progress in developing global health education and research in China. Nevertheless, evidence of the progress of Chinese universities' contributions to global health research is limited. More efforts are needed to depict the progress Chinese universities have collectively made in advancing the field of global health. This study aimed to examine Chinese universities' collective contributions to global health research by describing the longitudinal trends in global health research publications, uncovering research themes in global health, and exploring collaboration patterns. METHODS: A comprehensive bibliometric analysis was conducted for original research studies of the ten founding members of the China Consortium of Universities for Global Health, one of the largest networks of global health research and education in China. RESULTS: We found that (1) the number of research publications in the field of global health has steadily increased from 2014 to 2020, (2) non-communicable disease was the most popular research topic, accounting for over one-third of total publications, followed by maternal and child health and neurological and mental disorders and diseases, (3) less than one-fifth of papers involved primary data collection, with the majority of the study populations from low-income and lower-middle-income countries in Asia and Africa, and (4) a sizable collaboration network has been established with co-authors from over 200 oversea universities or organizations, with about one third from the US. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a variety of challenges and barriers, Chinese universities have been playing an increasingly important role in global health research as assessed by peer-reviewed publications over the last decade. More concerted efforts by multiple stakeholders, including government, private sectors, funding agencies, academic institutions, and researchers, are needed to advance the development of global health research in China.