Population pharmacokinetics of intravenous daptomycin in critically ill patients: implications for selection of dosage regimens.

Daptomycin is gaining prominence for the treatment of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus infections. However, the dosage selection for daptomycin in critically ill patients remains uncertain, especially in Chinese patients. This study aimed to establish the population pharmacokinetics of daptomycin in critically ill patients, optimize clinical administration plans, and recommend appropriate dosage for critically ill patients in China. The study included 64 critically ill patients. Blood samples were collected at the designated times. The blood daptomycin concentration was determined using validated liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. A nonlinear mixed-effects model was applied for the population pharmacokinetic analysis and Monte Carlo simulations of daptomycin. The results showed a two-compartment population pharmacokinetic model of daptomycin in critically ill adult Han Chinese patients. Monte Carlo simulations revealed that a daily dose of 400 mg of daptomycin was insufficient for the majority of critically ill adult patients to achieve the anti-infective target. For critically ill adult patients with normal renal function (creatinine clearance rate >90 mL/min), the probability of achieving the target only reached 90% when the daily dose was increased to 700 mg. For patients undergoing continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), 24 h administration of 500 mg met the pharmacodynamic goals and did not exceed the safety threshold in most patients. Therefore, considering its efficacy and safety, intravenous daptomycin doses are best scaled according to creatinine clearance, and an increased dose is recommended for critically ill patients with hyperrenalism. For patients receiving CRRT, medication is recommended at 24 h intervals.

All-cause and cause-specific mortality in US adults with periodontal diseases: A prospective cohort study.

AIM: This prospective cohort study investigated the association between periodontal diseases (PDs) and all-cause and cause-specific mortality. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We utilized adult participants recruited from six National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey cycles (1999-2014) and linked mortality data from the National Death Index up to December 2019. Baseline clinical periodontal examinations were performed by trained and calibrated examiners. All-cause and cause-specific mortality was modelled through multivariable Cox proportional hazards and Fine-Gray models to account for competing risks. All models were adjusted for demographic and lifestyle variables, clinical measurements and comorbidities. RESULTS: Overall, 15,030 participants were included, with a median length of follow-up of 9 years. Risk of all-cause mortality was 22% greater in people with PD than the control group (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.12-1.31). Risks of mortality by cardiovascular diseases (CVD), respiratory disease and diabetes were highest in participants with severe PD (CVD-sub-distribution HR [SHR]: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.16-1.64; respiratory-SHR: 1.62, 95% CI: 1.07-2.45; diabetes-SHR: 1.68, 95% CI: 1.12-2.53). CONCLUSIONS: Severe PD is associated with all-cause and cause-specific mortality among US adults after multivariable adjustment.

Prediction of incident chronic kidney disease in community-based electronic health records: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major global health problem and its early identification would allow timely intervention to reduce complications. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of multivariable prediction models derived and/or validated in community-based electronic health records (EHRs) for the prediction of incident CKD in the community. Methods: Ovid Medline and Ovid Embase were searched for records from 1947 to 31 January 2024. Measures of discrimination were extracted and pooled by Bayesian meta-analysis, with heterogeneity assessed through a 95% prediction interval (PI). Risk of bias was assessed using Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST) and certainty in effect estimates by Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE). Results: Seven studies met inclusion criteria, describing 12 prediction models, with two eligible for meta-analysis including 2 173 202 patients. The Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium (CKD-PC) (summary c-statistic 0.847; 95% CI 0.827-0.867; 95% PI 0.780-0.905) and SCreening for Occult REnal Disease (SCORED) (summary c-statistic 0.811; 95% CI 0.691-0.926; 95% PI 0.514-0.992) models had good model discrimination performance. Risk of bias was high in 64% of models, and driven by the analysis domain. No model met eligibility for meta-analysis if studies at high risk of bias were excluded, and certainty of effect estimates was 'low'. No clinical utility analyses or clinical impact studies were found for any of the models. Conclusions: Models derived and/or externally validated for prediction of incident CKD in community-based EHRs demonstrate good prediction performance, but assessment of clinical usefulness is limited by high risk of bias, low certainty of evidence and a lack of impact studies.

Troxerutin suppress inflammation response and oxidative stress in jellyfish dermatitis by activating Nrf2/HO-1 signaling pathway.

Background: Stomolophus meleagris envenomation causes severe cutaneous symptoms known as jellyfish dermatitis. The potential molecule mechanisms and treatment efficiency of dermatitis remain elusive because of the complicated venom components. The biological activity and molecular regulation mechanism of Troxerutin (TRX) was firstly examined as a potential treatment for jellyfish dermatitis. Methods: We examined the inhibit effects of the TRX on tentacle extract (TE) obtained from S. meleagris in vivo and in vitro using the mice paw swelling models and corresponding assays for Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) Analysis, cell counting kit-8 assay, flow cytometry, respectively. The mechanism of TRX on HaCaT cells probed the altered activity of relevant signaling pathways by RNA sequencing and verified by RT-qPCR, Western blot to further confirm protective effects of TRX against the inflammation and oxidative damage caused by TE. Results: TE significantly induced the mice paw skin toxicity and accumulation of inflammatory cytokines and reactive oxygen species in vivo and vitro. Moreover, a robust increase in the phosphorylation of mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPKs) and nuclear factor-kappa B (NF-κB) signaling pathways was observed. While, the acute cutaneous inflammation and oxidative stress induced by TE were significantly ameliorated by TRX treatment. Notablly, TRX suppressed the phosphorylation of MAPK and NF-κB by initiating the nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2 signaling pathway, which result in decreasing inflammatory cytokine release. Conclusion: TRX inhibits the major signaling pathway responsible for inducing inflammatory and oxidative damage of jellyfish dermatitis, offering a novel therapy in clinical applications.

Acute liver failure caused by high-dose tigecycline: A case report.

High-dose tigecycline is gradually being introduced for the treatment of serious infectious diseases due to the increasing difficulty in treating pan-resistant bacterial infections. However, the safety of high-dose tigecycline is controversial. We report the case of a 76-year-old female patient with cerebral hemorrhage who received high-dose tigecycline (100 mg q12h) with other drugs for ventilator-associated pneumonia. 25 days after admission, she developed acute liver failure, mainly manifested by abnormally high bilirubin, coagulation dysfunction, and gastrointestinal hemorrhage with hemorrhagic shock. According to the updated Roussel Uclaf causality assessment method, the patient's acute liver injury was most likely caused by tigecycline.

MicroRNA Regulatory Pattern in Diabetic Mouse Cortex at Different Stages Following Ischemic Stroke.

After ischemic stroke, microRNAs (miRNAs) participate in various processes, including immune responses, inflammation, and angiogenesis. Diabetes is a key factor increasing the risk of ischemic stroke; however, the regulatory pattern of miRNAs at different stages of diabetic stroke remains unclear. This study comprehensively analyzed the miRNA expression profiles in diabetic mice at 1, 3, and 7 days post-reperfusion following the middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO). We identified differentially expressed (DE) miRNAs in diabetic stroke and found significant dysregulation of some novel miRNAs (novel_mir310, novel_mir89, and novel_mir396) post-stroke. These DEmiRNAs were involved in apoptosis and the formation of tight junctions. Finally, we identified three groups of time-dependent DE miRNAs (miR-6240, miR-135b-3p, and miR-672-5p). These have the potential to serve as biomarkers of diabetic stroke. These findings provide a new perspective for future research, emphasizing the dynamic changes in miRNA expression after diabetic stroke and offering potential candidates as biomarkers for future clinical applications.

A combined model of serum neutrophil extracellular traps, CD8+ T cells, and tumor proportion score provides better prediction of PD-1 inhibitor efficacy in patients with NSCLC.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors provide a definite survival benefit for patients with driver-negative advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), but predictors of efficacy are still lacking. There may be a relationship between immune inflammatory state and tumor immune response. We explored the relationship of serum neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) with infiltrating cells in the tumor tissues of patients with NSCLC as well as their relationship with the therapeutic efficacy of programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) inhibitors. Serum myeloperoxidase (MPO)-double-stranded DNA (dsDNA) was detected as a marker of NET serum concentration. T cells were detected by immunohistochemical staining, and neutrophils were counted by MPO immunofluorescence staining. Of the 31 patients with NSCLC, a longer progression-free survival after PD-1 inhibitor treatment was associated with higher levels of CD3+ T cells, a lower neutrophil : CD3+-T-cell ratio (NEU/CD3+) and lower neutrophil : CD8+-T-cell ratio (NEU/CD8+) in tumor tissues. Patients with higher serum NETs were more likely to develop progressive disease after treatment (P = 0.003) and to have immune-related adverse events (IrAEs) as well as higher NEU/CD3+ and NEU/CD8+. The combined model of serum NETs, CD8+ T cells, and tumor proportion score (TPS) significantly improved the prediction of PD-1 inhibitor efficacy [P = 0.033; area under the curve (AUC) = 0.881]. Our results indicate that serum NETs are effective predictors of PD-1 inhibitor response and reflect the tissue neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and IrAE levels. The combined model of serum NETs, CD8+ T cells, and TPS is a powerful tool for predicting the efficacy of PD-1 inhibitor treatment in patients with NSCLC.

[Neutrophil extracellular traps extrusion from neutrophils stably adhered to ICAM-1 by lipoteichoic acid stimulation].

The effect of neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) on promoting intravascular microthrombi formation and exacerbating the severity of sepsis in patients has gained extensive attention. However, in sepsis, the mechanisms and key signaling molecules mediating NET formation during direct interactions of endothelial cells and neutrophils still need further explored. Herein, we utilized lipoteichoic acid (LTA), a component shared by Gram-positive bacteria, to induce NET extrusion from neutrophils firmly adhered to the glass slides coated with intercellular adhesion molecule-1(ICAM-1). We also used Sytox green to label NET-DNA and Flou-4 AM as the intracellular Ca 2+ signaling indicator to observe the NET formation and fluctuation of Ca 2+ signaling. Our results illustrated that LTA was able to induce NET release from neutrophils firmly attached to ICAM-1-coated glass slides, and the process was time-dependent. In addition, our study indicated that LTA-induced NET release by neutrophils stably adhered to ICAM-1 depended on Ca 2+ signaling but not intracellular reactive oxygen species (ROS). This study reveals NET formation mediated by direct interactions between endothelial ICAM-1 and neutrophils under LTA stimulation and key signaling molecules involved, providing the theoretical basis for medicine development and clinical treatment for related diseases.

The Effect of Steroid Intervention before Vitrectomy for Rhegmatogenous Retinal Detachment Associated with Choroidal Detachment: A Meta-Analysis and Systematic Review.

PURPOSE: This meta-analysis discusses the effectiveness of steroid intervention before vitrectomy in patients with rhegmatogenous retinal detachment associated with choroidal detachment. METHODS: We searched PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library for randomized controlled trials and observational studies published until August 2023. We included studies involving: patients with rhegmatogenous retinal detachment associated with choroidal detachment with proliferative vitreoretinopathy; an experimental group that was not administered steroids and a control group that was administered steroids; and assessment of visual acuity, retinal reattachment rate, and complications. The heterogeneity, publication bias, and sensitivity analysis were performed to ensure the statistical power and reliability of the analysis. RESULTS: Two randomized controlled trials and four case-control studies involving 490 eyes were included in the meta-analysis. There were no significant differences in the primary and final retinal reattachment rates after surgery between the steroid and non-steroid groups (primary retinal reattachment rate: odds ratio = 1.01, 95% confidence interval = 0.63-1.63, p = .41; final retinal reattachment rate: odds ratio = 0.82, 95% confidence interval = 0.43-1.59, p = .33). There was no statistically significant difference in postoperative visual acuity improvement between the two groups (odds ratio = 1.19, confidence interval = 0.63-2.25, p = .69). In addition, subgroup analyses of different types of steroids showed that systemic and local administration of steroids had similar results for retinal reattachment rate and visual acuity improvement. CONCLUSION: Patients with rhegmatogenous retinal detachment associated with choroidal detachment who did not receive preoperative steroids achieved the same effect as patients with rhegmatogenous retinal detachment associated with choroidal detachment who did receive preoperative steroids in terms of retinal reattachment rate and visual acuity. It is recommended that patients with rhegmatogenous retinal detachment associated with choroidal detachment undergo surgery as promptly as possible.

Simulation on two-phase refrigerant compression in the cylinder of rotary compressors using CFD method.

The two-phase compression process in the rotary compressor often occurs, such as defrosting and startup processes, which has a significant impact on the performance and reliability of air conditioning systems. In this paper, the CFD simulations predicting the two-phase refrigerant compression process in the compressor cylinder are conducted using the commercial software ANSYS Fluent. The dynamic mesh for the fluid domain and phase change model for the refrigerant are considered in the simulation. Effects of initial liquid volume fraction, refrigerant type and compressor type on the two-phase compression characteristics using R290 as refrigerant are carried out. Variations of the pressure, temperature, gas fraction distribution and evaporation rate in the cylinder are discussed. The results show that most liquid accumulates near the leakage gap and the bottom of the compression chamber during the two-phase compression process. The peak pressure during the two-phase compression decreases with the increase of the liquid volume fraction. The evaporation rate of R32 in the cylinder is much higher than that of R290. The maximum pressure of the reciprocating compressor is 2.26 times higher than that of the rotary compressor.

Immune-Related Adverse Event-Related Adrenal Insufficiency Mediates Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors Efficacy in Cancer Treatment.

Purpose: Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have significantly improved the outcomes of patients with cancer; however, these agents may initiate immune-related adverse events (irAEs). Previous studies have demonstrated a robust correlation between disease prognosis and the occurrence of irAEs, specifically skin or endocrine irAEs. Herein, we aimed to evaluate the correlation between irAE-related adrenal insufficiency (AI) and ICI treatment efficacy. Patients and methods: Patients diagnosed with gastrointestinal, respiratory, head and neck, urological, skin and gynecologic cancers treated with anti-programmed cell death 1 (PD-1)/anti-programmed cell death ligand 1 (PD-L1) antibody as monotherapy or combined therapy (combined with chemotherapy or targeted therapy) were divided into irAE-A (patients with irAE-related AI), irAE-B (patients with other irAEs) and non-irAE groups. Immunotherapy efficacy was assessed based on the disease control rate (DCR), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS). Survival probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test. Results: Of the 192 patients enrolled in our study, 17 developed irAE-related AI and 83 developed other irAEs. The DCR of the irAE-A and irAE-B groups were higher than that of the non-irAE group (P<0.05). Multiple extended Cox regression analyses showed that irAE status (irAE-A vs non-irAE, P=0.008; irAE-B vs non-irAE, P=0.020), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) status (P=0.045), tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage (P=0.000), and treatment line (P=0.002) were independent predictors of PFS. Contrarily, irAE status (irAE-A vs non-irAE, P=0.009; irAE-B vs non-irAE, P=0.013), ECOG status (P=0.007), TNM stage (P=0.035), treatment line (P=0.001) and treatment modality (P=0.008) were independent predictors for OS. Conclusion: IrAE-related AI was significantly associated with ICI treatment efficacy in patients with cancer, which could be a potentially predictable marker. Due to the destruction of adrenal tissue by T cells with enhanced activity, AI reflects enhanced T cell activity to some extent.

A mechanism study on the synergistic effects of rifapentine and fluconazole against fluconazole-resistant Candida albicans in vitro.

Candida albicans (C. albicans) is one of the most common clinical isolates of systemic fungal infection. Long-term and inappropriate use of antifungal drugs can cause fungal resistance, which poses a great challenge to the clinical treatment of fungal infections. The combination of antifungal drugs and non-antifungal drugs to overcome the problem of fungal resistance has become a research hotspot in recent years. Our previous study found that the combination of rifapentine (RFT) and fluconazole (FLC) has a significant synergistic against FLC-resistant C. albicans. The present study aimed to further verify the synergistic effect between FLC and RFT against the FLC-resistant C. albicans 100, and explore the underlying mechanism. The growth curve and spot assay test not only showed the synergistic effect of FLC and RFT on FLC-resistant C. albicans in vitro but exhibited a dose-dependent effect on RFT, indicating that RFT may play a principal role in the synergic effect of the two drugs. Flow cytometry showed that the combined use of RFT and FLC arrested cells in the G2/M phase, inhibiting the normal division and proliferation of FLC-resistant C. albicans. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) demonstrated that FLC at a low concentration could still cause a certain degree of damage to the cell membrane in the FLC-resistant C. albicans, as represented by irregular morphologic changes and some defects observed in the cell membrane. When FLC was used in combination with RFT, the nuclear membrane was dissolved and the nucleus was condensed into a mass. Detection of the intracellular drug concentration of fungi revealed that the intracellular concentration of RFT was 31-195 fold that of RFT alone when it was concomitantly used with FLC. This indicated that FLC could significantly increase the concentration of RFT in cells, which may be due to the damage caused to the fungal cell membrane by FLC. In short, the present study revealed a synergistic mechanism in the combined use of RFT and FLC, which may provide a novel strategy for the clinical treatment of FLC-resistant C. albicans.

Joint kinematics and SPM analysis of gait in children with and without Down syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Individuals with Down syndrome (DS) walk with altered gait patterns compared to their typically developing (TD) peers. While walking at faster speeds and with external ankle load, preadolescents with DS demonstrate spatiotemporal and kinetic improvements. However, evidence of joint kinematic adjustments is unknown, which is imperative for targeted rehabilitation design. RESEARCH QUESTION: How does increasing walking speed and adding ankle load affect the joint kinematics of children with and without DS during overground walking? METHODS: In this cross-sectional observational study, thirteen children with DS aged 7-11 years and thirteen age- and sex-matched TD children completed overground walking trials. There were two speed conditions: normal speed and fast speed (as fast as possible without running). There were two load conditions: no load and ankle load (2% of body mass added bilaterally above the ankle). A motion capture system was used to register the ankle, knee, and hip joint angles in the sagittal plane. Peak flexion/extension angles, range of motion, and timing of peak angles were identified. In addition, statistical parametric mapping (SPM) was conducted to evaluate the trajectory of the ankle, knee, and hip joint angles across the entire gait cycle. RESULTS AND SIGNIFICANCE: SPM analysis revealed the DS group walked with greater ankle, knee, and hip flexion compared to the TD group for most of the gait cycle, regardless of condition. Further, increasing walking speed led to improved ankle joint kinematics in both groups by shifting peak plantarflexion closer to toe-off. However, knee extension during stance was challenged in the DS group. Adding ankle load improved hip and knee kinematics in both groups but reduced peak plantarflexion around toe-off. The kinematic adjustments in the DS group suggest specific motor strategies to accommodate their neuromuscular deficits, which can provide a foundation to design targeted gait-based interventions for children with DS.

Seasonal nitrate variations, risks, and sources in groundwater under different land use types in a thousand-year-cultivated region, northwestern China.

The global public health concern of nitrate (NO3-) contamination in groundwater is particularly pronounced in irrigated agricultural regions. This paper aims to analyze the spatial distribution of groundwater NO3-, assess potential health risks for local residents, and quantitatively identify nitrate sources during different seasons and land use types in the Jinghuiqu Irrigation District, a region in northwestern China with a longstanding agricultural history. The investigation utilizes hydrochemical parameters, dual isotopic data, and the Bayesian stable isotope mixing model (MixSIAR). The findings underscore significant seasonal variations in the average concentrations of NO3-, with values of 87.72 mg/L and 101.87 mg/L during the wet and dry seasons, respectively. Furthermore, distinct fluctuations in nitrate concentration were observed across different land use types, whereby vegetable lands manifested the maximum concentration. Prolonged exposure to elevated nitrate concentrations may pose potential health risks to residents, especially in the dry season when the non-carcinogenic groundwater nitrate risk surges past its wet season counterpart. The MixSIAR analysis revealed that chemical fertilizers accounted for the majority of nitrate pollution in vegetable lands, both during the dry season (49.6%) and wet season (41.2%). In contrast, manure and sewage contributed significantly to NO3-concentrations in residential land during the wet (74.9%) and dry seasons (67.6%). For croplands, soil nitrogen emerged as a dominant source during the wet season (42.2%), while chemical fertilizers prevailed in the dry season (38.7%). In addition to source variations, the nitrate concentration of groundwater is further affected by hydrogeological conditions, with more permeable aquifers tending to display higher nitrate concentrations. Thus, targeted measures were proposed to modify or impede the nitrogen migration pathway, taking into consideration hydrogeological conditions and incorporating domestic sewage, organic fertilizer, and agricultural management practices.

The Effect of Dexmedetomidine as a Local Anesthetic Adjuvant for Iliac Fascia Compartment Block on Postoperative Delirium in Elderly Patients Undergoing Elective Hip Surgery.

INTRODUCTION: We analyzed the effect of dexmedetomidine (DEX) as a local anesthetic adjuvant on postoperative delirium (POD) in elderly patients undergoing elective hip surgery. METHODS: In this study, 120 patients undergoing hip surgery were enrolled and randomly assigned to two groups: fascia iliaca compartment block with DEX + ropivacaine (the Y group, n = 60) and fascia iliaca compartment block with ropivacaine (the R group, n = 60). The primary outcomes: presence of delirium during the postanesthesia care unit (PACU) period and on the first day (D1), the second day (D2), and the third day (D3) after surgery. The secondary outcomes: preoperative and postoperative C-reactive protein (CRP) and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), occurrence of insomnia on the preoperative day, day of operation, D1 and D2; HR values of patients in both groups before iliac fascia block (T1), 30 min after iliac fascia block (T2), at surgical incision (T3), 20 min after incision (T4), when they were transferred out of the operating room (T5) and after leaving the recovery room (T6) at each time point; VAS for T1, PACU, D1, D2; the number of patients requiring remedial analgesics within 24 h after blockade and related complications between the two groups. RESULTS: A total of 97 patients were included in the final analysis, with 11 and 12 patients withdrawing from the R and Y groups, respectively. The overall incidence of POD and its incidence in the PACU and ward were all lesser in the Y group than in the R group (p < 0.05). Additionally, fewer cases required remedial analgesia during the PACU period, and more vasoactive drugs were used for maintaining circulatory system stability in the Y group as compared to the R group (p < 0.05). At the same time, the incidence of intraoperative and postoperative bradycardia in the Y group was higher than that in the R group, accompanied by lower postoperative CRP and ESR (all p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Ultrasound-guided high fascia iliaca compartment block with a combination of ropivacaine and DEX can reduce the incidence of POD, the use of intraoperative opioids and postoperative remedial analgesics, and postoperative inflammation in elderly patients who have undergone hip surgery, indicating that this method could be beneficial in the prevention and treatment of POD.

Risk calculator for incident atrial fibrillation across a range of prediction horizons.

BACKGROUND: The increasing burden of atrial fibrillation (AF) emphasizes the need to identify high-risk individuals for enrolment in clinical trials of AF screening and primary prevention. We aimed to develop prediction models to identify individuals at high-risk of AF across prediction horizons from 6-months to 10-years. METHODS: We used secondary-care linked primary care electronic health record data from individuals aged ≥30 years without known AF in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink-GOLD dataset between January 2, 1998 and November 30, 2018; randomly divided into derivation (80%) and validation (20%) datasets. Models were derived using logistic regression from known AF risk factors for incident AF in prediction periods of 6 months, 1-year, 2-years, 5-years, and 10-years. Performance was evaluated using in the validation dataset with bootstrap validation with 200 samples, and compared against the CHA2DS2-VASc and C2HEST scores. RESULTS: Of 2,081,139 individuals in the cohort (1,664,911 in the development dataset, 416,228 in the validation dataset), the mean age was 49.9 (SD 15.4), 50.7% were women, and 86.7% were white. New cases of AF were 7,386 (0.4%) within 6 months, 15,349 (0.7%) in 1 year, 38,487 (1.8%) in 5 years, and 79,997 (3.8%) by 10 years. Valvular heart disease and heart failure were the strongest predictors, and association of hypertension with AF increased at longer prediction horizons. The optimal risk models incorporated age, sex, ethnicity, and 8 comorbidities. The models demonstrated good-to-excellent discrimination and strong calibration across prediction horizons (AUROC, 95%CI, calibration slope: 6-months, 0.803, 0.789-0.821, 0.952; 1-year, 0.807, 0.794-0.819, 0.962; 2-years, 0.815, 0.807-0.823, 0.973; 5-years, 0.807, 0.803-0.812, 1.000; 10-years 0.780, 0.777-0.784, 1.010), and superior to the CHA2DS2-VASc and C2HEST scores. The models are available as a web-based FIND-AF calculator. CONCLUSIONS: The FIND-AF models demonstrate high discrimination and calibration across short- and long-term prediction horizons in 2 million individuals. Their utility to inform trial enrolment and clinical decisions for AF screening and primary prevention requires further study.