[Construction of a Predictive Model for Diabetes Mellitus Type 2 in Middle-Aged and Elderly Populations Based on the Medical Checkup Data of National Basic Public Health Service]. / åŸºäºŽå›½å®¶åŸºæœ¬å ¬å ±å«ç”ŸæœåŠ¡ä½“æ£€çš„ä¸­è€å¹´äºº2åž‹ç³–å°¿ç— é£Žé™©é¢„æµ‹æ¨¡åž‹æž„å»º.

Objective: To establish a universally applicable logistic risk prediction model for diabetes mellitus type 2 (T2DM) in the middle-aged and elderly populations based on the results of a Meta-analysis, and to validate and confirm the efficacy of the model using the follow-up data of medical check-ups of National Basic Public Health Service. Methods: Cohort studies evaluating T2DM risks were identified in Chinese and English databases. The logistic model utilized Meta-combined effect values such as the odds ratio (OR) to derive ß, the partial regression coefficient, of the logistic model. The Meta-combined incidence rate of T2DM was used to obtain the parameter α of the logistic model. Validation of the predictive performance of the model was conducted with the follow-up data of medical checkups of National Basic Public Health Service. The follow-up data came from a community health center in Chengdu and were collected between 2017 and 2022 from 7602 individuals who did not have T2DM at their baseline medical checkups done at the community health center. This community health center was located in an urban-rural fringe area with a large population of middle-aged and elderly people. Results: A total of 40 cohort studies were included and 10 items covered in the medical checkups of National Basic Public Health Service were identified in the Meta-analysis as statistically significant risk factors for T2DM, including age, central obesity, smoking, physical inactivity, impaired fasting glucose, a reduced level of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), hypertension, body mass index (BMI), triglyceride glucose (TYG) index, and a family history of diabetes, with the OR values and 95% confidence interval (CI) being 1.04 (1.03, 1.05), 1.55 (1.29, 1.88), 1.36 (1.11, 1.66), 1.26 (1.07, 1.49), 3.93 (2.94, 5.24), 1.14 (1.06, 1.23), 1.47 (1.34, 1.61), 1.11 (1.05, 1.18), 2.15 (1.75, 2.62), and 1.66 (1.55, 1.78), respectively, and the combined ß values being 0.039, 0.438, 0.307, 0.231, 1.369, 0.131, 0.385, 0.104, 0.765, and 0.507, respectively. A total of 37 studies reported the incidence rate, with the combined incidence being 0.08 (0.07, 0.09) and the parameter α being -2.442 for the logistic model. The logistic risk prediction model constructed based on Meta-analysis was externally validated with the data of 7602 individuals who had medical checkups and were followed up for at least once. External validation results showed that the predictive model had an area under curve (AUC) of 0.794 (0.771, 0.816), accuracy of 74.5%, sensitivity of 71.0%, and specificity of 74.7% in the 7602 individuals. Conclusion: The T2DM risk prediction model based on Meta-analysis has good predictive performance and can be used as a practical tool for T2DM risk prediction in middle-aged and elderly populations.

Enhanced Role of Streamflow Processes in the Evolutionary Trends of Dissolved Organic Carbon.

Investigating dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics and drivers in rivers enhances the understanding of carbon-environment linkages and support sustainability. Previous studies did not fully consider the dynamic nature of key drivers that influence the long-term changing trends in DOC concentration over time (the controlling factors and their roles in DOC trend can undergo alterations over time). We analyzed 42 years (1979-2018) of hydrometeorology, sulfate SO4, and DOC data from a 5.42 km2 watershed in central-southern Ontario, Canada. Our findings reveal a significant (p ≤ 0.01) overall increase in DOC concentrations, mainly due to the coevolution of SO4 and streamflow trends, especially the extreme flows. Over the 42-year period, the changing trend of streamflow (especially the extreme high or low flows) have significantly (p < 0.05) intensified their influence on DOC trends, increasing by an average of 30%. Conversely, the impact of SO4 has weakened, experiencing an average decrease of 32.6%. The upward trend in the annual average DOC concentration is attributed to the increasing number of maximum flow days within a year, while the decreasing trend in the number of minimum flow days has a contrasting effect. In other words, changes in maximum and minimum flow days have a counteracting effect on the DOC concentration trends. These results underscore the importance of considering the effects of altered streamflow processes on carbon cycle changes under evolving environmental conditions.

Dynamics of dissolved organic carbon during drought and flood events: A phase-by-stages perspective.

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is a key water quality parameter that plays a crucial role in controlling aquatic ecosystems and carbon cycling. Understanding DOC dynamics during hydrological extremes (i.e., droughts and floods) helps in managing water quality, but such variability is rarely studied. Furthermore, how differences in DOC concentrations among phase-by-stages of drought/flood affect simulation performances based on hydrological features remains unclear. Here, phase-by-stages of hydrological drought (flood) were divided into intensification (rising) and recovery (falling) periods based on drought peak intensity (flood peak intensity). The long-term (1976-2019) daily discharge and weekly (biweekly) DOC concentrations from four headwater streams with different watershed sizes (from 9.97 to 119.09 ha) in south-central Ontario, Canada, were used to achieve the above aims. The results showed that (i) the average DOC concentration during intensification (rising) stage of drought (flood) was smaller (larger) than during recovery (falling). (ii) Simulations performed better when accounting for phase-by-stages of drought/flood, with reductions in mean absolute percentage error of 32.85 % and 53.59 % for drought and flood events, respectively. These results will help understand the dynamics of DOC during hydrological extremes and improve simulation performance of numerical models for water quality parameters under changing environmental conditions.

Realization of thousand-second improved confinement plasma with Super I-mode in Tokamak EAST.

Mastering nuclear fusion, which is an abundant, safe, and environmentally competitive energy, is a great challenge for humanity. Tokamak represents one of the most promising paths toward controlled fusion. Obtaining a high-performance, steady-state, and long-pulse plasma regime remains a critical issue. Recently, a big breakthrough in steady-state operation was made on the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST). A steady-state plasma with a world-record pulse length of 1056 s was obtained, where the density and the divertor peak heat flux were well controlled, with no core impurity accumulation, and a new high-confinement and self-organizing regime (Super I-mode = I-mode + e-ITB) was discovered and demonstrated. These achievements contribute to the integration of fusion plasma technology and physics, which is essential to operate next-step devices.

Influence of Different Beam Oscillation Patterns in Electron Beam Welding of Niobium Sheets with Different Thickness.

The electron beam welding of the tubes and the half-cells for our 1.3 GHz single-cell superconducting radiofrequency (SRF) cavities is complex due to the different thicknesses of the tubes and the half-cells in the iris region. However, the mechanical properties and microstructure of the iris welds in niobium SRF cavities have barely been explored in previous studies. For high-quality iris welds, welding experiments of niobium sheets of 2 mm and 2.8 mm were carried out under different oscillating conditions. The results show that welding with no oscillation or sinusoidal oscillation may not be applied in actual welding owing to the large misalignment of the bottom surface. The weld grains were not significantly refined through beam oscillation. The joints with infinity oscillation had a higher elongation than circular oscillation, which exhibited a brittle fracture in the tensile tests at 77 K. Nevertheless, the texture of the weld with infinity oscillation implies poor formability, so the feasibility of infinity oscillation in actual welding needs verification in future study.

Dissolved organic carbon response to hydrological drought characteristics: Based on long-term measurements of headwater streams.

Influence of extreme hydrological events on water quality has been widely concerned. For instance, droughts can inhibit dissolved organic carbon (DOC) exports or imports. However, the response relationship of DOC to hydrological drought characteristics (i.e., duration and severity) requires more in-depth research. We propose an integrated framework for constructing, validating, and applying the response relationship model, and investigate the capability of response model to simulate DOC based on hydrological drought characteristics. Three headwater basins (HP3a, HP4, and HP6), with different drainage areas (9.28-122.80 ha) and long-term (>40 year) observed DOC concentration and hydrometeorological data, in Harp Lake catchment, south-central Ontario, southeastern Canada, are used to demonstrate the proposed framework. Run theory and variable drought thresholds (VDTs) are used to identify hydrological drought characteristics, and DOC during hydrological drought is extracted. Based on the extracted hydrological drought characteristics and DOC for one basin (i.e., HP3a), the response relationship model is constructed and validated, and then applied to other two basins (i.e., HP4 and HP6). Three evaluation indicators: coefficient of determination (R2), root-mean-square-error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), are served to test the goodness-of-fit performance of the response relationship model. The results show that (i) annual DOC concentration showed a significant (a = 0.01) increasing trend during 1978-2018 in the study basin. (ii) During the hydrological drought, the variation of temperature affected DOC variation indirectly through direct influence on SO4 variation. (iii) The response sensitivity of DOC to hydrologic process with different timescales is varying within a year, namely, there is a larger response sensitivity from March to May than in other months. (iv) DOC during the hydrological drought has a close and regular linear relationship with hydrological drought characteristics, i.e., with the increase of drought duration and severity, DOC concentration also increases. The relationship with drought duration is better than that of severity (R2 = 0.92 vs 0.35). (v) The response relationship model (autoregressive integrated moving average) can simulate DOC in hydrological drought (R2 ≥ 0.87, RMSE ≤ 0.86, MAPE ≤ 13.69%) at HP3a, and also has good applications at HP4 and HP6 basins. These results provide an improved understanding of DOC-drought relationship, and may support policy makers that look for increased resilience of aquatic ecological security to droughts.

Optimization of Electron Beam Welding Joint of Water-Cooled Ceramic Breeder Blanket.

The water-cooled ceramic breeder (WCCB) blanket is a component of the China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR). The Reduced Activation Ferrite/Martensite (RAFM) steels are the preferred structural materials for WCCB blanket. As a kind of RAFM steels, China low activation martensitic (CLAM) steel was welded by electron beam welding (EBW), and then quenched-tempered treatment was carried out. The results show that at the welding state, the welding seam was composed of large martensite and δ ferrite and the organization of the heat-affected zone (HAZ) was changed slightly with the different heat input. Moreover, the hardness of welded joints was higher than that of base material (BM), but the impact toughness was very low. After quenched-tempered treatment, the δ ferrite in the weld was eliminated, the residual stress of the test plate decreased as a whole, and the mechanical properties were improved significantly.

Multi-timescale assessment of propagation thresholds from meteorological to hydrological drought.

Hydrological drought usually lags behind meteorological drought. Obtaining the propagation threshold (PT) from meteorological drought to hydrological drought is important for providing early warnings of hydrological drought. Previous studies have only used single timescales to characterize PT; however, a single timescale cannot accurately describe the propagation attributes from meteorological to hydrological drought because drought has multi-timescale features. In addition, several methods can be used to obtain PT, such as run theory, correlation analysis, and non-linear response methods. However, these methods might produce different estimates of PT. Here, multi-timescale drought indices, namely the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI), were used to represent meteorological drought and hydrological drought. PT estimates at multiple timescales (e.g., 1-month, 3-month, and 12-month) obtained from run theory, correlation analysis, and non-linear response methods were compared, and the possible reasons for differences in the PT estimates are discussed. We conducted a case study of three sub-basins (Xinfengjiang River, Qiuxiangjiang River, and Andunshui River) with low levels of human activity in the Dongjiang River Basin, which is located in a humid region in southern China. We found that estimates of PT differed at different timescales of drought indices and with different methods at the same timescales. Longer timescales of hydrological drought corresponded to larger PT and vice versa. The major cause of this pattern was the fact that different timescales of drought indices showed different response sensitivities to drought events. The PT obtained from run theory was the shortest; thus, run theory can provide conservative warnings to aid drought prevention and mitigation. Our findings can help drought managers select effective tools to manage the early stages of hydrological drought based on meteorological forecasts and thus minimize the negative impacts of hazards posed by drought.

Statistical Mechanics Treatment of the Broadened Snoek Relaxation Peak in Ternary Niobium⁻Vanadium⁻Oxygen Alloys.

The Snoek relaxation profiles for ternary Niobium⁻Vanadium⁻Oxygen systems were analyzed by an embedded-cell model of statistical mechanics treatment. The relaxation characteristic and broadening mechanism were systematically discussed and some conflicting interpretations in the early research were clarified. The complicated Snoek spectrums of the Nb⁻V⁻O system can be resolved into a series of effective elementary Debye peaks, which result from the transitions of interstitial oxygen atoms between adjacent octahedral sites. The relaxation parameters of each elementary peak can be determined by element species and atomic arrangements within the corresponding embedded octahedron. The Snoek relaxation characteristic in Nb⁻V⁻O systems mainly depends on the sites distributions and the transitions status of the interstitial oxygen atoms, which are controlled by the site-dependence energies and the transition probabilities, respectively.

Effects of Zr Addition on Strengthening Mechanisms of Al-Alloyed High-Cr ODS Steels.

Oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) steels with different contents of zirconium (denoted as 16Cr ODS, 16Cr-0.3Zr ODS and 16Cr-0.6Zr ODS) were fabricated to investigate the effects of Zr on strengthening mechanism of Al-alloyed 16Cr ODS steel. Electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) results show that the mean grain size of ODS steels could be decreased by Zr addition. Transmission electron microscope (TEM) results indicate that Zr addition could increase the number density but decrease the mean diameter and inter-particle spacing of oxide particles. Furthermore, it is also found that in addition to Y-Al-O nanoparticles, Y-Zr-O oxides with finer size were observed in 16Cr-0.3Zr ODS and 16Cr-0.6Zr ODS steels. These changes in microstructure significantly increase the yield strength (YS) and ultimate tensile strength (UTS) of ODS steels through mechanisms of grain boundary strengthening and dispersion strengthening.