Adaptation of the robust method to large distributions of reference values: program modifications and comparison of alternative computational methods.

The objective of this research was to compute reference limits using reference values from patients entering pharmaceutical development clinical trials by the nonparametric method and the robust method of Horn and Pesce, with and without outlier exclusion, and compare the methods with respect to influence on the limits. Reference limits were computed for 38 analytes with over 130,000 subjects contributing reference values. Subjects were partitioned into 10 demographic strata for limit computation. Limits were computed for both 95- and 98-percentile reference intervals by both methods. For each reference interval and method, the limits were calculated with and without outliers. Outliers were excluded by the Horn algorithm. Irrespective of method, reference limits were expanded with the 98-percentile interval, but some expansions were small. Outlier exclusion contracted limits with more influence on the upper limit. The robust method contracted the upper limit to a meaningful degree and slightly expanded the lower limit for many analytes. Outlier exclusion and computation by the robust method have an increasing influence on analytes with right-skewed distributions of reference values from large populations not screened to exclude common, stable diseases and environmental factors that might affect analyte variability. The method has advantages for computation of reference limits used in clinical trial analyses.

Reference Limits for Outlier Analyses in Randomized Clinical Trials.

BACKGROUND: Reference limits used in clinical medicine to screen and manage patients are typically developed nonparametrically using reference values from a limited number of healthy subjects using a 95th percentile reference interval. We have evaluated alternative methods of computation and the resulting limits for use in the analyses of treatment-emergent outliers in clinical trials. METHODS: We developed a set of alternative reference limits for 38 laboratory analytes based on alternative statistical methods and assessed their relative performance in clinical trial analysis. Performance assessment was based on the clinical credibility of the limits, inferential statistical performance, consideration of incidences for the test drug and control (placebo) in cases where the drug was reasonably believed to be associated with a change in an analyte (positive cases), and in cases where prior analyses failed to demonstrate a change associated with the drug (negative cases). RESULTS: Based on consideration of these cases, no single method resulted in optimal limits for all cases considered. However, with the limits developed using clinical trial subjects' values at baseline as reference values, excluding outliers, the robust method and the 98th percentile interval appeared to produce optimal limits across the greatest number of cases considered. CONCLUSION: Although no single method of limit computation will result in optimal limits for all outlier analyses for all analytes across all clinical trials, the 98th percentile reference interval robust limits based on clinical trial reference values appeared superior to multiple alternatives considered for such analyses.

Relationship between drain volume/fill volume ratio and clinical outcomes associated with overfill complaints in peritoneal dialysis patients.

BACKGROUND: To better understand the spectrum of overfill reports and their corresponding clinical severity and etiology, we conducted a review of overfill reports from the Manufacturer and User Facility Device Experience (MAUDE) database, which is within the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Web site (www.fda.gov). METHOD: We searched the MAUDE database for events related to overfill reports between 1 January 1995 and 31 December 2008 and recorded drain volume (DV)/fill volume (FV), or DV/FV, and clinical symptoms and signs associated with the overfill report. RESULTS: Among 462 MAUDE reports with a possible overfill event, 440 reports (95.2%) with a confirmed overfill event contained sufficient information to ascertain the clinical severity of the event. The number of reports with a clinical severity rating of minor, moderate, major, or death was 331, 71, 28, and 10, respectively. The median (range) DV/FV for a subgroup of 292 reports with a clinical severity rating of minor, moderate, major, or death was 1.63 (1.06 - 4.29), 1.71 (1.08 - 5.87), 2.14(1.64 - 2.61), and 2.50 (2.28 - 3.33), respectively. Insufficient drain accounted for a majority of overfill reports. CONCLUSION: Our analysis of reports from the MAUDE database suggests an association between DV/FV and clinical severity of the reported overfill event, as well as significant patient-to-patient variability with respect to intraperitoneal volume tolerance.

Assessing lead time of selected ovarian cancer biomarkers: a nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: CA125, human epididymis protein 4 (HE4), mesothelin, B7-H4, decoy receptor 3 (DcR3), and spondin-2 have been identified as potential ovarian cancer biomarkers. Except for CA125, their behavior in the prediagnostic period has not been evaluated. METHODS: Immunoassays were used to determine concentrations of CA125, HE4, mesothelin, B7-H4, DcR3, and spondin-2 proteins in prediagnostic serum specimens (1-11 samples per participant) that were contributed 0-18 years before ovarian cancer diagnosis from 34 patients with ovarian cancer (15 with advanced-stage serous carcinoma) and during a comparable time interval before the reference date from 70 matched control subjects who were participating in the Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial. Lowess curves were fit to biomarker levels in cancer patients and control subjects separately to summarize mean levels over time. Receiver operating characteristic curves were plotted, and area-under-the curve (AUC) statistics were computed to summarize the discrimination ability of these biomarkers by time before diagnosis. RESULTS: Smoothed mean concentrations of CA125, HE4, and mesothelin (but not of B7-H4, DcR3, and spondin-2) began to increase (visually) in cancer patients relative to control subjects approximately 3 years before diagnosis but reached detectable elevations only within the final year before diagnosis. In descriptive receiver operating characteristic analyses, the discriminatory power of these biomarkers was limited (AUC statistics range = 0.56-0.75) but showed increasing accuracy with time approaching diagnosis (eg, AUC statistics for CA125 were 0.57, 0.68, and 0.74 for > or = 4, 2-4, and <2 years before diagnosis, respectively). CONCLUSION: Serum concentrations of CA125, HE4, and mesothelin may provide evidence of ovarian cancer 3 years before clinical diagnosis, but the likely lead time associated with these markers appears to be less than 1 year.

A combined crystalloid and colloid pd solution as a glucose-sparing strategy for volume control in high-transport apd patients: a prospective multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence is accumulating that the continuous exposure to high glucose concentrations during peritoneal dialysis (PD) is an important cause of ultrafiltration (UF) failure. The cornerstone of prevention and treatment of UF failure is reduction of glucose exposure, which will also alleviate the systemic impact of significant free glucose absorption. The challenge for the future is to discover new therapeutic strategies to enhance fluid and sodium removal while diminishing glucose load and exposure using combinations of available osmotic agents. OBJECTIVES: To investigate in patients on automated PD (APD) with a fast transport pattern whether there is a glucose-sparing advantage to replacing 7.5% icodextrin (ICO) during the long dwell with a mixed crystalloid and colloid PD fluid (bimodal UF) in an attempt to promote daytime UF and sodium removal while diminishing the glucose strength of the dialysate at night. DESIGN: A 2 parallel arm, 4 month, prospective nonrandomized study. SETTING: PD units or university hospitals in 4 French and Belgian districts. RESULTS: During the 4-month intervention period, net UF and peritoneal sodium removal during the long dwell when treated by bimodal UF was about 2-fold higher than baseline (with ICO). The estimated percent change (95% confidence interval) from baseline in net daytime UF for the bimodal solution was 150% (106% - 193%), versus 18% (-7% - 43%) for ICO (p < 0.001). The estimated percent change from baseline in peritoneal sodium removal for the bimodal solution was 147% (112% - 183%), versus 23% (-2% - 48%) for ICO (p < 0.001). The estimated percent change from baseline in UF efficiency (24-hour net UF divided by the amount of glucose absorbed) was significantly higher (p < 0.001) when using the bimodal solution was 71%, versus -5% for ICO. CONCLUSION: Prescription of bimodal UF during the day in APD patients offers the opportunity to optimize the long dwell exchange in a complete 24-hour APD cycle. The current study demonstrated that a bimodal solution based on the mixing of glucose (2.6%) and icodextrin (6.8%) achieved the double target of significantly improving UF and peritoneal sodium removal by exploring a new concept of glucose-sparing PD therapy.

Low-fat, increased fruit, vegetable, and grain dietary pattern, fractures, and bone mineral density: the Women's Health Initiative Dietary Modification Trial.

BACKGROUND: The effects of dietary changes on osteoporosis, low bone density, and frequent falls are unestablished. OBJECTIVE: We assessed the effect of the Women's Health Initiative Dietary Modification low-fat and increased fruit, vegetable, and grain intervention on incident hip, total, and site-specific fractures and self-reported falls, and, in a subset, on bone mineral density (BMD). DESIGN: Postmenopausal women (n = 48,835) aged 50-79 y (18.6% of minority race-ethnicity) were randomly assigned to receive the Dietary Modification intervention (40%, n = 19,541) (daily goal: < or =20% of energy as fat, > or =5 servings of vegetables and fruit, and > or =6 servings of grains) or to a comparison group that received no dietary changes (60%; n = 29,294). RESULTS: After a mean 8.1 y of follow-up, 215 women in the intervention group and 285 women in the comparison group (annualized rate: 0.14% and 0.12%, respectively) experienced a hip fracture (hazard ratio: 1.12; 95% CI: 0.94, 1.34; P = 0.21). The intervention group (n = 5423; annualized rate: 3.44%) had a lower rate of reporting > or =2 falls than did the comparison group (n = 8695; annualized rate: 3.67%) (HR: 0.92; 95% CI: 0.89, 0.96; P < 0.01). There was a significant interaction according to hormone therapy use; those in the comparison group receiving hormone therapy had the lowest incidence of hip fracture. In a subset of 3951 women, hip BMD at years 3, 6, and 9 was 0.4-0.5% lower in the intervention group than in the comparison group (P = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: A low-fat and increased fruit, vegetable, and grain diet intervention modestly reduced the risk of multiple falls and slightly lowered hip BMD but did not change the risk of osteoporotic fractures. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00000611.

Homocysteine levels and risk of hip fracture in postmenopausal women.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies suggest that high homocysteine levels are associated with an increased risk of fractures. Homocysteine levels are known to be influenced by vitamin B and folate supply or status, and poor renal function can result in higher levels independent of nutritional adequacy. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to determine the associations between fasting homocysteine levels and incident hip fractures, and the effects of other factors on hip fracture risk. DESIGN: We conducted a case-control study in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study, a study of postmenopausal women (n = 93,676) recruited in the United States. We selected 400 incident cases of hip fracture and 400 controls matched on age, ethnicity, and blood draw date among women not on osteoporosis therapies. Outcome measures included physician-adjudicated, incident hip fractures. Baseline lifestyle and nutritional questionnaires were performed. RESULTS: The risk of hip fracture increased 1.38-fold [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.14, 1.66] for each sd increase in serum homocysteine level after adjustment for fracture risk factors. This association was not affected by adjustment for dietary folate, B6, or B12 intake, but it diminished after adjustment for cystatin-C level (odds ratio, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.66-1.79), a measure of renal function not affected by muscle mass. Among women in the highest quartile of homocysteine and cystatin-C compared to those without elevations in either biomarker, the risk of hip fracture was substantially elevated (odds ratio, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.61-4.87). CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates that high homocysteine levels are associated with an increased risk of hip fracture, which could be accounted for by poor renal function.

Conjugated equine estrogens and colorectal cancer incidence and survival: the Women's Health Initiative randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: In separate Women's Health Initiative randomized trials, combined hormone therapy with estrogen plus progestin reduced colorectal cancer incidence but estrogen alone in women with hysterectomy did not. We now analyze features of the colorectal cancers that developed and examine the survival of women following colorectal cancer diagnosis in the latter trial. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: 10,739 postmenopausal women who were 50 to 79 years of age and had undergone hysterectomy were randomized to conjugated equine estrogens (0.625 mg/d) or matching placebo. Colorectal cancer incidence was a component of the monitoring global index of the study but was not a primary study endpoint. Colorectal cancers were verified by central medical record and pathology report review. Bowel exam frequency was not protocol defined, but information on their use was collected. RESULTS: After a median 7.1 years, there were 58 invasive colorectal cancers in the hormone group and 53 in the placebo group [hazard ratio, 1.12; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.77-1.63]. Tumor size, stage, and grade were comparable in the two randomization groups. Bowel exam frequency was also comparable in the two groups. The cumulative mortality following colorectal cancer diagnosis among women in the conjugated equine estrogen group was 34% compared with 30% in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 1.34; 95% CI, 0.58-3.19). CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to the preponderance of observational studies, conjugated equine estrogens in a randomized clinical trial did not reduce colorectal cancer incidence nor improve survival after diagnosis.

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations and risk for hip fractures.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH) vitamin D] concentration and hip fractures is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To see whether low serum 25(OH) vitamin D concentrations are associated with hip fractures in community-dwelling women. DESIGN: Nested case-control study. SETTING: 40 clinical centers in the United States. PARTICIPANTS: 400 case-patients with incident hip fracture and 400 control participants matched on the basis of age, race or ethnicity, and date of blood draw. Both groups were selected from 39 795 postmenopausal women who were not using estrogens or other bone-active therapies and who had not had a previous hip fracture. MEASUREMENTS: Serum 25(OH) vitamin D was measured and patients were followed for a median of 7.1 years (range, 0.7 to 9.3 years) to assess fractures. RESULTS: Mean serum 25(OH) vitamin D concentrations were lower in case-patients than in control participants (55.95 nmol/L [SD, 20.28] vs. 59.60 nmol/L [SD, 18.05]; P = 0.007), and lower serum 25(OH) vitamin D concentrations increased hip fracture risk (adjusted odds ratio for each 25-nmol/L decrease, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.06 to 1.68]). Women with the lowest 25(OH) vitamin D concentrations (< or =47.5 nmol/L) had a higher fracture risk than did those with the highest concentrations (> or =70.7 nmol/L) (adjusted odds ratio, 1.71 [CI, 1.05 to 2.79]), and the risk increased statistically significantly across quartiles of serum 25(OH) vitamin D concentration (P for trend = 0.016). This association was independent of number of falls, physical function, frailty, renal function, and sex-steroid hormone levels and seemed to be partially mediated by bone resorption. LIMITATIONS: Few case-patients were nonwhite women. Bone mineral density and parathyroid hormone levels were not accounted for in the analysis. CONCLUSION: Low serum 25(OH) vitamin D concentrations are associated with a higher risk for hip fracture.

Cystatin-C, renal function, and incidence of hip fracture in postmenopausal women.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the association between chronic kidney disease and incident hip fracture using serum cystatin-C as a biomarker of renal function calculated without reference to muscle mass. DESIGN: Case-control study nested within a prospective study. SETTING: The Women's Health Initiative Observational Study conducted at 40 U.S. clinical centers. PARTICIPANTS: From 93,676 women aged 50 to 79 followed for an average of 7 years, 397 incident hip fracture cases and 397 matched controls were studied. MEASUREMENTS: Cystatin-C levels were measured on baseline serum using a particle-enhanced immunonepholometric assay. Estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR(cys-c)) were calculated using a validated equation and categorized into three groups (>or=90.0 mL/min per 1.73 m(2), 60.0-89.9 mL/min per 1.73 m(2), and <60.0 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) indicating chronic kidney disease Stages 3 to 4). RESULTS: The odds ratio (OR) for hip fracture was 2.50 (95% confidence interval (CI)=1.32-4.72) for eGFR(cys-c) less than 60 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) compared with Stages 0 to 1, after adjustment for body mass, parental hip fracture, smoking, alcohol consumption, and physical function. No association was observed for eGFR(cys-c) of 60 to 90 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) (OR=1.04, 95% CI=0.66-1.64). Additional adjustment for poor health status, hemoglobin, serum 25-hydroxy vitamin D, and bone metabolism markers did not affect these associations. Adjustment for plasma homocysteine reduced the OR for eGFR(cys-c) less than 60 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) to 1.83 (95% CI=0.93-3.61). CONCLUSION: Women with eGFR(cys-c) levels less than 60 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) have a substantially greater risk of hip fracture. Effects of renal function on homocysteine levels may partially mediate, or accompany, this association.

Lipoprotein particle concentrations may explain the absence of coronary protection in the women's health initiative hormone trials.

OBJECTIVE: The Women's Health Initiative randomized hormone trials unexpectedly demonstrated an increase in early coronary events. In an effort to explain this finding, we examined lipoprotein particle concentrations and their interactions with hormone therapy in a case-control substudy. METHODS AND RESULTS: We randomized 16 608 postmenopausal women with intact uterus to conjugated estrogens 0.625 mg with medroxyprogesterone acetate 2.5 mg daily or to placebo, and 10 739 women with prior hysterectomy to conjugated estrogens 0.625 mg daily or placebo, and measured lipoprotein subclasses by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy at baseline and year 1 in 354 women with early coronary events and matched controls. Postmenopausal hormone therapy raised high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and particle concentration and reduced low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C; all P<0.001 versus placebo). In contrast, neither unopposed estrogen nor estrogen with progestin lowered low-density lipoprotein particle concentration (LDL-P). CONCLUSIONS: Postmenopausal hormone therapy-induced reductions in LDL-C were not paralleled by favorable effects on LDL-P. This finding may account for the absence of coronary protection conferred by estrogen in the randomized hormone trials.

Associations of serum sex hormone-binding globulin and sex hormone concentrations with hip fracture risk in postmenopausal women.

CONTEXT: Endogenous estradiol, testosterone, and SHBG may influence the risk of hip fracture. DESIGN AND METHODS: From the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study, 39,793 eligible postmenopausal women did not have a previous hip fracture and were not using estrogen or other bone-active therapies. Of these, 400 who had a first-time nonpathological hip fracture (median follow-up, 7 yr) were matched to 400 controls by age, ethnicity, and baseline blood draw date. Estradiol, testosterone, and SHBG were measured in banked baseline serum. RESULTS: Compared with women in the lowest tertiles, those with bioavailable testosterone in the highest tertile had a lower risk [odds ratio (OR) = 0.62; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.44-0.88]; those with bioavailable estradiol in the highest tertile had a lower risk (OR = 0.44; 95% CI = 0.29-0.66), and those with SHBG in the highest tertile had a higher risk (OR = 1.90; 95% CI = 1.31-2.74) of hip fracture. In models with all three hormones and potential confounders, high SHBG remained a strong independent risk factor (OR = 1.76; 95% CI = 1.12-2.78), high bioavailable testosterone remained protective (OR = 0.64; 95% CI = 0.40-1.00), but estradiol no longer was associated (OR = 0.72; 95% CI = 0.42-1.23). CONCLUSIONS: High serum SHBG is associated with an increased risk of subsequent hip fracture and high endogenous testosterone with a decreased risk, independent of each other, serum estradiol concentration, and other putative risk factors. But endogenous estradiol has no independent association with hip fracture.

Relation of demographic factors, menstrual history, reproduction and medication use to sex hormone levels in postmenopausal women.

In postmenopausal women, levels of estrogens, androgens, and perhaps prolactin have been related to risk of breast and other hormonal cancers in women. However, the determinants of these hormone concentrations have not been firmly established. Associations among various demographic, menstrual, and reproductive factors, medication use and endogenous sex hormone concentrations (estradiol, free estradiol, estrone, estrone sulfate, testosterone, free testosterone, sex hormone binding globulin, androstenedione, dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), DHEA sulfate (DHEAS), dihydrotestosterone, and prolactin) were evaluated in a cross-sectional analysis from a simple random sample of 274 postmenopausal women selected from the Women's Health Initiative Dietary Modification Trial. In multiple regression analyses on log-transformed hormones, the concentrations of DHEA, and DHEAS were negatively and statistically significantly associated with age (both beta=-0.03, P<0.001, respectively). Estradiol, estrone, DHEA, and free testosterone concentrations were higher in African-American than in non-Hispanic White women, but after multivariate adjustment the associations were statistically significant only for free testosterone (beta=0.38, P=0.01). Women who had a history of bilateral oophorectomy had a mean 35% lower testosterone concentration compared with women with at least one ovary remaining (beta=-0.43, P=0.002), and lower free testosterone (beta=-0.42, P=0.04) after multivariate adjustment. Women who reported regular use of NSAIDs had higher DHEA concentrations (beta=0.20, P=0.04) and lower prolactin concentrations (beta=-0.18, P=0.02) compared with non-users. These results suggest that while age, oophorectomy status, and NSAID use may be associated with selected sex hormone concentrations, few menstrual or reproductive factors affect endogenous sex hormones in the postmenopausal period.

Clinical risk factors for fractures in multi-ethnic women: the Women's Health Initiative.

UNLABELLED: To identify risk factors for fractures in multi-ethnic women, we studied 159,579 women enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative. In general, risk factors for fractures were similar across ethnic groups. However, irrespective of their ethnicity, women with multiple risk factors have a high risk of fracture. Targeting these high-risk women for screening and intervention could reduce fractures. INTRODUCTION: Fracture rates tend to be lower in minority women, but consequences may be greater. In addition, the number of fractures is expected to increase in minority women because of current demographic trends. There are limited prospective data on risk factors for fractures in minority women. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We studied 159,579 women 50-79 yr of age enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative. Information on risk factors was obtained by questionnaire or examination. Nonspine fractures that occurred after study entry were identified over an average follow-up of 8 +/- 2.6 (SD) yr. RESULTS: Annualized rates (%) of fracture in whites, blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and American Indians were 2.0, 0.9, 1.3, 1.2, and 2.0, respectively. Significant predictors [HR (95% CI)] of fractures by ethnic group were as follows: blacks: at least a high school education, 1.22 (1.0, 1.5); (+) fracture history, 1.7 (1.4, 2.2); and more than two falls, 1.7 (1.9, 2.0); Hispanics: height (>162 cm), 1.6 (1.1, 2.2); (+) fracture history, 1.9 (1.4, 2.5); more than two falls, 1.8 (1.4, 2.3); arthritis, 1.3 (1.1, 1.6); corticosteroid use, 3.9 (1.9, 8.0); and parental history of fracture, 1.3 (1.0, 1.6); Asians: age (per 5 yr), 1.2 (1.0, 1.3); (+) fracture history, 1.5 (1.1, 2.0); current hormone therapy (HT), 0.7 (0.5, 0.8); parity (at least five), 1.8 (1.1, 3.0); more than two falls, 1.4 (1.1, 1.9); American Indian: (+) fracture history, 2. 9 (1.5, 5.7); current HT, 0.5 (0.3, 0.9). Women with eight or more risk factors had more than a 2-fold higher rate of fracture compared with women with four or fewer risk factors. Two ethnicity x risk factor interactions were identified: age and fall history. CONCLUSIONS: Irrespective of their ethnicity, women with multiple risk factors have a high risk of fracture. Targeting these high-risk women for screening and intervention could reduce fractures.

Predictors of dietary change and maintenance in the Women's Health Initiative Dietary Modification Trial.

OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors of dietary change to and maintenance of a low-fat eating pattern (<20% energy from fat, > or = 5 servings fruits/vegetables daily, and > or = 6 servings grains daily) among a cohort of postmenopausal women. Candidate predictors included intrapersonal, interpersonal, intervention program characteristics, and clinical center. DESIGN: Longitudinal study within the Women's Health Initiative Dietary Modification Trial. Dietary change was evaluated after 1 year of participation in the Women's Health Initiative Dietary Modification Trial, and dietary maintenance after 3 years. SUBJECTS: Postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years at baseline who were randomized to the intervention arm of the Women's Health Initiative Dietary Modification Trial (n=19,541). STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Univariate and multivariate linear regression analysis was performed and associations evaluated between candidate predictors and each of the three dietary goals: percent energy from fat, fruit/vegetable servings, and grain servings. RESULTS: Year 1 (change) predictors of percent energy from fat (P<0.005) included being younger (beta=2.12; 70 to 79 years vs 50 to 59 years), more educated (beta=-.69; college vs high school), more optimistic (beta=-.07), attending more sessions (beta=-.69), and submitting more self-monitoring records (beta=-.74). At year 3 (maintenance), the predictors of percent energy from fat (P<0.005) included attending more sessions (beta=-.65) and submitting more self-monitoring scores (beta=-.71). The analytic model predicted 22% of the variance in fat intake at year 1 and 27% at year 3 (P<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The strongest predictors of dietary change and maintenance were attending intervention sessions and self-monitoring dietary intake. Novel was the finding that optimism predicted dietary change.

Postmenopausal hormone therapy and risk of cardiovascular disease by age and years since menopause.

CONTEXT: The timing of initiation of hormone therapy may influence its effect on cardiovascular disease. OBJECTIVE: To explore whether the effects of hormone therapy on risk of cardiovascular disease vary by age or years since menopause began. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Secondary analysis of the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) randomized controlled trials of hormone therapy in which 10,739 postmenopausal women who had undergone a hysterectomy were randomized to conjugated equine estrogens (CEE) or placebo and 16,608 postmenopausal women who had not had a hysterectomy were randomized to CEE plus medroxyprogesterone acetate (CEE + MPA) or placebo. Women aged 50 to 79 years were recruited to the study from 40 US clinical centers between September 1993 and October 1998. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Statistical test for trend of the effect of hormone therapy on coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke across categories of age and years since menopause in the combined trials. RESULTS: In the combined trials, there were 396 cases of CHD and 327 cases of stroke in the hormone therapy group vs 370 [corrected] cases of CHD and 239 cases of stroke in the placebo group. For women with less than 10 years since menopause began, the hazard ratio (HR) for CHD was 0.76 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.50-1.16); 10 to 19 years, 1.10 (95% CI, 0.84-1.45); and 20 or more years, 1.28 (95% CI, 1.03-1.58) (P for trend = .02). The estimated absolute excess risk for CHD for women within 10 years of menopause was -6 per 10,000 person-years; for women 10 to 19 years since menopause began, 4 per 10,000 person-years; and for women 20 or more years from menopause onset, 17 per 10,000 person-years. For the age group of 50 to 59 years, the HR for CHD was 0.93 (95% CI, 0.65-1.33) and the absolute excess risk was -2 per 10,000 person-years; 60 to 69 years, 0.98 (95% CI, 0.79-1.21) and -1 per 10,000 person-years; and 70 to 79 years, 1.26 (95% CI, 1.00-1.59) and 19 per 10,000 person-years (P for trend = .16). Hormone therapy increased the risk of stroke (HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.12-1.56). Risk did not vary significantly by age or time since menopause. There was a nonsignificant tendency for the effects of hormone therapy on total mortality to be more favorable in younger than older women (HR of 0.70 for 50-59 years; 1.05 for 60-69 years, and 1.14 for 70-79 years; P for trend = .06). CONCLUSIONS: Women who initiated hormone therapy closer to menopause tended to have reduced CHD risk compared with the increase in CHD risk among women more distant from menopause, but this trend test did not meet our criterion for statistical significance. A similar nonsignificant trend was observed for total mortality but the risk of stroke was elevated regardless of years since menopause. These data should be considered in regard to the short-term treatment of menopausal symptoms. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00000611.

Prehypertension and cardiovascular disease risk in the Women's Health Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Prehypertension is common and is associated with increased vascular mortality. The extent to which it increases risk of nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and congestive heart failure is less clear. METHODS AND RESULTS: We determined the prevalence of prehypertension, its association with other coronary risk factors, and the risk for incident cardiovascular disease events in 60,785 postmenopausal women during 7.7 years of follow-up using Cox regression models that included covariates as time-dependent variables. Prehypertension was present at baseline in 39.5%, 32.1%, 42.6%, 38.7%, and 40.3% of white, black, Hispanic, American Indian, and Asian women, respectively (P<0.0001 across ethnic groups). Age, body mass index, and prevalence of diabetes mellitus and hypercholesterolemia increased across blood pressure categories, whereas smoking decreased (all P<0.0001). Compared with normotensive women (referent), adjusted hazard ratios for women with prehypertension were 1.58 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12 to 2.21) for cardiovascular death, 1.76 (95% CI, 1.40 to 2.22) for myocardial infarction, 1.93 (95% CI, 1.49 to 2.50) for stroke, 1.36 (95% CI, 1.05 to 1.77) for hospitalized heart failure, and 1.66 (95% CI, 1.44 to 1.92) for any cardiovascular event. Hazard ratios for the composite outcome with prehypertension did not differ between ethnic groups (P=0.71 for interaction), although the numbers of events among Hispanic and Asian women were small. CONCLUSIONS: Prehypertension is common and was associated with increased risk of myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, and cardiovascular death in white and nonwhite postmenopausal women. Risk factor clustering was conspicuous, emphasizing the need for trials evaluating the efficacy of global cardiovascular risk reduction through primordial prevention.

Relation of BMI and physical activity to sex hormones in postmenopausal women.

OBJECTIVE: Levels of estrogen, androgen, and prolactin have been related to risk of postmenopausal breast cancer. However, the determinants of these hormone concentrations are not established. The purpose of this study was to examine correlates of endogenous sex hormones. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: Associations among adiposity, physical activity, and diet and concentrations of estradiol, free estradiol, estrone, testosterone, free testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), androstenedione, dehydroepiandrosterone, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, and prolactin were evaluated in 267 postmenopausal women randomly selected from the Women's Health Initiative Dietary Modification Trial. RESULTS: In multiple regression analyses on log-transformed hormones, BMI was positively associated with estrone (beta = 0.031, p < 0.001), estradiol (beta = 0.048, p < 0.001), free estradiol (beta = 0.062, p < 0.001), free testosterone (beta = 0.017, p = 0.02), and prolactin (beta = 0.012, p = 0.02) and negatively associated with SHBG (beta = -0.02, p = 0.001). Total physical activity (metabolic equivalent tasks per week) was negatively associated with concentrations of estrone, estradiol, and androstenedione (beta = -0.006, -0.007, and -0.005, respectively, all p < or = 0.05). Using a composite variable of BMI and physical activity dichotomized by median values, women with high BMI/low physical activity had a mean estrone concentration of 28.8 pg/mL, compared with 24.1, 19.9, and 18.4 pg/mL for women with high BMI/high physical activity, low BMI/low physical activity, and low BMI/high physical activity, respectively (p trend < 0.001). Similar trends were observed for estradiol and free estradiol and, in inverse, for SHBG. DISCUSSION: These associations may, in part, explain the positive associations between overweight/obesity and a sedentary lifestyle on breast cancer risk.

Effect of hormone therapy on risk of hip and knee joint replacement in the Women's Health Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of hormone therapy on arthroplasty rates. METHODS: We examined data from the Women's Health Initiative placebo-controlled, double-blind, randomized trials. Community-dwelling women ages 50-79 years were enrolled at 40 US clinics. Women with prior arthroplasty were excluded, yielding a sample size of 26,321 subjects. Women who had had hysterectomies (n = 10,272) were randomly assigned to receive 0.625 mg/day conjugated equine estrogens (n = 5,076), or placebo (n = 5,196), with a mean followup of 7.1 years. Those who had not had hysterectomies (n = 16,049) were randomly assigned to receive estrogen plus progestin (n = 8,240), given as 0.625 mg/day conjugated equine estrogens plus 2.5 mg/day medroxyprogesterone acetate, or placebo (n = 7,809), with a mean followup of 5.6 years. Participants reported hospitalizations, and arthroplasties were identified by procedure codes. Arthroplasties due to hip fracture were censored. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) using intent-to-treat methods and outcome of time to first procedure. RESULTS: In the estrogen-alone trial, women receiving hormone therapy had significantly lower rates of any arthroplasty (HR 0.84 [95% CI 0.70-1.00], P = 0.05). However, this effect was borderline statistically significant for hip arthroplasty (HR 0.73 [95% CI 0.52-1.03], P = 0.07), and not significant for knee arthroplasty (HR 0.87 [95% CI 0.71-1.07], P = 0.19). In the estrogen-plus-progestin trial, there was no association for total arthroplasty (HR 0.99 [95% CI 0.82-1.20], P = 0.92) or for individual hip (HR 1.14 [95% CI 0.83-1.57], P = 0.41) or knee (HR 0.91 [95% CI 0.72-1.15], P = 0.41) arthroplasties. CONCLUSION: These data suggest that hormone therapy may influence joint health, but this observed decrease in risk may be limited to unopposed estrogen and may possibly be more important in hip than in knee osteoarthritis.