ABSTRACT
The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model to identify individuals and populations with a high risk of being hospitalized due to an ambulatory care-sensitive condition who might benefit from preventative actions or tailored treatment options to avoid subsequent hospital admission. A rate of 4.8% of all individuals observed had an ambulatory care-sensitive hospitalization in 2019 and 6389.3 hospital cases per 100,000 individuals could be observed. Based on real-world claims data, the predictive performance was compared between a machine learning model (Random Forest) and a statistical logistic regression model. One result was that both models achieve a generally comparable performance with c-values above 0.75, whereas the Random Forest model reached slightly higher c-values. The prediction models developed in this study reached c-values comparable to existing study results of prediction models for (avoidable) hospitalization from the literature. The prediction models were designed in such a way that they can support integrated care or public and population health interventions with little effort with an additional risk assessment tool in the case of availability of claims data. For the regions analyzed, the logistic regression revealed that switching to a higher age class or to a higher level of long-term care and unit from prior hospitalizations (all-cause and due to an ambulatory care-sensitive condition) increases the odds of having an ambulatory care-sensitive hospitalization in the upcoming year. This is also true for patients with prior diagnoses from the diagnosis groups of maternal disorders related to pregnancy, mental disorders due to alcohol/opioids, alcoholic liver disease and certain diseases of the circulatory system. Further model refinement activities and the integration of additional data, such as behavioral, social or environmental data would improve both model performance and the individual risk scores. The implementation of risk scores identifying populations potentially benefitting from public health and population health activities would be the next step to enable an evaluation of whether ambulatory care-sensitive hospitalizations can be prevented.
