Anti-Müllerian hormone-based prediction model for a live birth in assisted reproduction.

Prediction of assisted reproduction treatment outcome has been the focus of clinical research for many years, with a variety of prognostic models describing the probability of an ongoing pregnancy or a live birth. This study assessed whether serum anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) concentrations may be incorporated into a model to enhance the prediction of a live birth in women undergoing their first IVF cycle, by analysing a database containing clinical and laboratory information on IVF cycles carried out between 2005 and 2008 at the Mother-Infant Department of University Hospital, Modena. Logistic regression was used to examine the association of live birth with baseline patient characteristics. Only AMH and age were demonstrated in regression analysis to predict live birth, so a model solely based on these two criteria was generated. The model permitted the identification of live birth with a sensitivity of 79.2% and a specificity of only 44.2%. In the prediction of a live birth following IVF, a distinction, however moderate, can be made between couples with a good and a poor prognosis. The success of IVF was found to mainly depend on maternal age and serum AMH concentrations, one of the most relevant and valuable markers of ovarian reserve.

Anti-Müllerian hormone measurement on any day of the menstrual cycle strongly predicts ovarian response in assisted reproductive technology.

BACKGROUND: Recently, a new marker, the anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), has been evaluated as a marker of ovarian response. Serum AMH levels have been measured at frequent time-points during the menstrual cycle, suggesting the complete absence of fluctuation. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether serum AMH measurement on any day of the menstrual cycle could predict ovarian response in women undergoing assisted reproductive technology (ART). METHODS: This study included 48 women attending the IVF/ICSI programme. Blood withdrawal for AMH measurement was performed in all the patients independently of the day of the menstrual cycle. RESULTS: Women in the lowest AMH quartile (<0.4 ng/ml) were older and required a higher dose of recombinant FSH than women in the highest quartile (>7 ng/ml). All the cancelled cycles due to absent response were in the group of the lowest AMH quartile, whereas the cancelled cycles due to risk of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS) were in the group of the highest AMH quartile. This study demonstrated a strong correlation between serum AMH levels and ovarian response to gonadotrophin stimulation. CONCLUSION: For the first time, clinicians may have a reliable serum marker of ovarian response that can be measured independently of the day of the menstrual cycle.