The current infection with Helicobacter pylori and association with upper gastrointestinal lesions and risk of upper gastrointestinal cancer: Insights from multicenter population-based cohort study.

The relationship between Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection and upper gastrointestinal (UGI) cancers is complex. This multicenter, population-based cohort study conducted in seven areas in China aimed to assess the correlation between current H. pylori infection and the severity of UGI lesions, as well as its association with the risk of gastric cancer (GC) and esophageal cancer (EC). From 2015 to 2017, 27,085 participants (aged 40-69) completed a standardized questionnaire, and underwent a 13C-urea breath test. Then a subset underwent UGI endoscopy to assess the UGI lesion detection rates. All individuals were followed up until December 2021 to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) for UGI cancers. H. pylori infection prevalence was 45.9%, and among endoscopy participants, 22.2% had gastric lesions, 19.2% had esophageal lesions. Higher detection rates of gastric lesions were noted in the H. pylori-positive population across all lesion severity levels. Over a median follow-up of 6.3 years, 104 EC and 179 GC cases were observed, including 103 non-cardia gastric cancer (NCGC) cases and 76 cardia gastric cancer (CGC) cases. H. pylori-infected individuals exhibited a 1.78-fold increased risk of GC (HR 1.78, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.32-2.40) but no significant increase in EC risk (HR 1.07, 95% CI 0.73-1.57). Notably, there was a higher risk for both NCGC and CGC in H. pylori-infected individuals. This population-based cohort study provides valuable evidence supporting the association between current H. pylori infection and the risk of both NCGC and CGC. These findings contribute to the empirical basis for risk stratification and recommendations for UGI cancer screening.

Survey of hepatitis B virus infection for liver cancer screening in China: A population-based, cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is the primary cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in China. The target population for HCC screening comprises individuals who test positive for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). However, current data on the prevalence of HBV infection among individuals who are eligible for HCC screening in China are lacking. We aimed to assess the seroepidemiology of HBV infection among Chinese individuals eligible for HCC screening to provide the latest evidence for appropriate HCC screening strategies in China. METHODS: Questionnaires including information of sex, age, ethnicity, marital status, educational level, source of drinking water, as well as smoking and alcohol consumption history and serum samples were collected from females aged 45-64 years and males aged 35-64 years in 21 counties from 4 provinces in eastern and central China between 2015 and 2023. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay methods were used to detect the serum HBV marker HBsAg. RESULTS: A total of 603,082 individuals were enrolled, and serum samples were collected for analysis from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2023. The prevalence of HBsAg positive in the study population was 5.23% (31,528/603,082). The prevalence of HBsAg positive was greater in males than in females (5.60% [17,660/315,183] vs . 4.82% [13,868/287,899], χ 2  = 187.52, P  <0.0001). The elderly participants exhibited a greater prevalence of HBV infection than younger participants (χ 2  = 41.73, P  <0.0001). Birth cohort analysis revealed an overall downward trend in HBV prevalence for both males and females. Individuals born in more recent cohorts exhibited a lower prevalence of HBV infection as compared to those born earlier. CONCLUSIONS: The current prevalence of HBV infection remains above 5% in populations eligible for HCC screening in China. Further efforts should be made to increase the accessibility of HCC screening among individuals with HBV infection.

Benefits and harms of polygenic risk scores in organised cancer screening programmes: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

Background: While polygenic risk scores (PRS) could enable the streamlining of organised cancer screening programmes, its current discriminative ability is limited. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis to trade-off the benefits and harms of PRS-stratified cancer screening in China. Methods: The validated National Cancer Center (NCC) modelling framework for six cancers (lung, liver, breast, gastric, colorectum, and oesophagus) was used to simulate cancer incidence, progression, stage-specific cancer detection, and risk of death. We estimated the number of cancer deaths averted, quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained, number needed to screen (NNS), overdiagnosis, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of one-time PRS-stratified screening strategy (screening 25% of PRS-defined high-risk population) for a birth cohort at age 60 in 2025, compared with unstratified screening strategy (screening 25% of general population) and no screening strategy. We applied lifetime horizon, societal perspective, and 3% discount rate. An ICER less than $18,364 per QALY gained is considered cost-effective. Findings: One-time cancer screening for population aged 60 was the most cost-effective strategy compared to screening at other ages. Compared with an unstratified screening strategy, the PRS-stratified screening strategy averted more cancer deaths (61,237 vs. 40,329), had a lower NNS to prevent one death (307 vs. 451), had a slightly higher overdiagnosis (14.1% vs. 13.8%), and associated with an additional 130,045 QALYs at an additional cost of $1942 million, over a lifetime horizon. The ICER for all six cancers combined was $14,930 per QALY gained, with the ICER varying from $7928 in colorectal cancer to $39,068 in liver cancer. ICER estimates were sensitive to changes in risk threshold and cost of PRS tools. Interpretation: PRS-stratified screening strategy modestly improves clinical benefit and cost-effectiveness of organised cancer screening programmes. Reducing the costs of polygenic risk stratification is needed before PRS implementation. Funding: The Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, the Jing-jin-ji Special Projects for Basic Research Cooperation, and the Sanming Project of the Medicine in Shenzhen.

Combining fecal immunochemical testing and questionnaire-based risk assessment in selecting participants for colonoscopy screening in the Chinese National Colorectal Cancer Screening Programs: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Screening reduces colorectal cancer (CRC) burden by allowing early resection of precancerous and cancerous lesions. An adequate selection of high-risk individuals and a high uptake rate for colonoscopy screening are critical to identifying people more likely to benefit from screening and allocating healthcare resources properly. We evaluated whether combining a questionnaire-based interview for risk factors with fecal immunochemical test (FIT) outcomes for high-risk assessment is more efficient and economical than a questionnaire-based interview-only strategy. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this multicenter, population-based, prospective cohort study, we enrolled community residents aged 40 to 74 years in 29 provinces across China. From 2016 to 2020, a total of 1,526,824 eligible participants were consecutively enrolled in the Cancer Screening Program in Urban China (CanSPUC) cohort, and 940,605 were enrolled in the Whole Life Cycle of Cancer Screening Program (WHOLE) cohort, with follow-up to December 31, 2022. The mean ages were 56.89 and 58.61 years in CanSPUC and WHOLE, respectively. In the WHOLE cohort, high-risk individuals were identified by combining questionnaire-based interviews to collect data on risk factors (demographics, diet history, family history of CRC, etc.) with FIT outcomes (RF-FIT strategy), whereas in the CanSPUC cohort, high-risk individuals were identified using only interview-based data on risk factors (RF strategy). The primary outcomes were participation rate and yield (detection rate of advanced neoplasm, early-stage detection rate of CRCs [stage I/II], screening yield per 10,000 invitees), which were reported for the entire population and for different gender and age groups. The secondary outcome was the cost per case detected. In total, 71,967 (7.65%) and 281,985 (18.47%) individuals were identified as high-risk and were invited to undergo colonoscopy in the RF-FIT group and RF group, respectively. The colonoscopy participation rate in the RF-FIT group was 26.50% (19,071 of 71,967) and in the RF group was 19.54% (55,106 of 281,985; chi-squared test, p < 0.001). A total of 102 (0.53%) CRCs and 2,074 (10.88%) advanced adenomas were detected by the RF-FIT, versus 90 (0.16%) and 3,593 (6.52%) by the RF strategy (chi-squared test, both p < 0.001). The early-stage detection rate using the RF-FIT strategy was significantly higher than that by the RF strategy (67.05% versus 47.95%, Fisher's exact test, p = 0.016). The cost per CRC detected was $24,849 by the RF-FIT strategy versus $55,846 by the RF strategy. A limitation of the study was lack of balance between groups with regard to family history of CRC (3.5% versus 0.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Colonoscopy participation and screening yield were better with the RF-FIT strategy. The association with CRC incidence and mortality reduction should be evaluated after long-term follow-up.

Multicenter phase II study of moderate low-dose radiotherapy in indolent non-Hodgkin lymphoma: CLCG-iNHL-01 protocol.

Background: Radiotherapy is an effective treatment for indolent non-Hodgkin lymphoma (iNHL); however, the optimal radiotherapy dose remains to be determined. We hypothesize that a suitable dose may exist between 4 and 24 Gy. Methods: This prospective multicenter phase II trial intends to recruit 73 sites of iNHL patients, who will receive involved-site radiotherapy of 12 Gy in four fractions. The primary objective is the 6-month clinical complete response rate. Tumor tissue, blood and conjunctival specimens will be collected to identify potential predictive biomarkers. Discussion: The CLCG-iNHL-01 trial will evaluate the efficacy and toxicity of 12 Gy in patients with iNHL and provide information on a novel hypofractionation regimen of low-dose radiotherapy. Clinical Trial Registration: NCT05543070 (ClinicalTrials.gov).

Cancer profiles in China and comparisons with the USA: a comprehensive analysis in the incidence, mortality, survival, staging, and attribution to risk factors.

China faces a disproportionate cancer burden to the population size and is undergoing a transition in the cancer spectrum. We extracted data in five aspects of cancer incidence, mortality, survival, staging distributions, and attribution to risk factors in China, the USA and worldwide from open-source databases. We conducted a comprehensive secondary analysis of cancer profiles in China in the above aspects, and compared cancer statistics between China and the USA. A total of 4,546,400 new cancer cases and 2,992,600 deaths occurred in China in 2020, accounting for 25.1% and 30.2% of global cases, respectively. Lifestyle-related cancers including lung cancer, colorectal cancer, and breast cancer showed an upward trend and have been the leading cancer types in China. 41.6% of new cancer cases and 49.3% of cancer deaths occurred in digestive-system cancers in China, and the cancers of esophagus, nasopharynx, liver, and stomach in China accounted for over 40% of global cases. Infection-related cancers showed the highest population-attributable fractions among Chinese adults, and most cancers could be attributed to behavioral and metabolic factors. The proportions of stage I for most cancer types were much higher in the USA than in China, except for esophageal cancer (78.2% vs. 41.1%). The 5-year relative survival rates in China have improved substantially during 2000-2014, whereas survival for most cancer types in the USA was significantly higher than in China, except for upper gastrointestinal cancers. Our findings suggest that although substantial progress has been made in cancer control, especially in digestive system cancers in China, there was still a considerable disparity in cancer burden between China and the USA. More robust policies on risk factors and standardized screening practices are urgently warranted to curb the cancer growth and improve the prognosis for cancer patients.

Cancer statistics for young adults aged 20 to 49 years in China from 2000 to 2017: a population-based registry study.

An increasing cancer incidence among adults younger than 50 years has been reported for several types of cancer in multiple countries. We aimed to report cancer profiles and trends among young adults in China. Data from the China Cancer Registry Annual Report were used to estimate incidence and mortality among young adults (ages 20-49 years) in China in 2017, and an age-period-cohort model was employed to estimate the average annual percent change (AAPC) in incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2017. All 25 cancer types were grouped into obesity- or overweight-associated cancers (12 cancer types) and additional cancers (13 cancer types). In 2017, there were 681,178 new cases and 214,591 cancer deaths among young adults in China. Among young adults, the most common cancers were thyroid, breast, cervical, liver, lung, and colorectal cancer, and the leading causes of cancer deaths were liver, lung, cervical, stomach, breast, and colorectal cancer. From 2000 to 2017, the cancer incidence increased for all cancers combined among young adults, with the highest AAPC (1.46%) for adults aged 20-24 years, while cancer mortality decreased, with the highest AAPC (-1.63%) for those aged 35-39 years. In conclusion, the cancer incidence in China has increased among young adults, while cancer mortality has decreased for nearly all ages. Cancer control measures, such as obesity control and appropriate screening, may contribute to reducing the increasing cancer burden among young adults.

Cancer screening in China: a steep road from evidence to implementation.

Cancer screening has the potential to decrease mortality from several common cancer types. The first cancer screening programme in China was initiated in 1958 and the Cancer High Incidence Fields established in the 1970s have provided an extensive source of information for national cancer screening programmes. From 2012 onwards, four ongoing national cancer screening programmes have targeted eight cancer types: cervical, breast, colorectal, lung, oesophageal, stomach, liver, and nasopharyngeal cancers. By synthesising evidence from pilot screening programmes and population-based studies for various screening tests, China has developed a series of cancer screening guidelines. Nevertheless, challenges remain for the implementation of a fully successful population-based programme. The aim of this Review is to highlight the key milestones and the current status of cancer screening in China, describe what has been achieved to date, and identify the barriers in transitioning from evidence to implementation. We also make a set of implementation recommendations on the basis of the Chinese experience, which might be useful in the establishment of cancer screening programmes in other countries.

Landscape of young breast cancer under 35 years in China over the past decades: a multicentre retrospective cohort study (YBCC-Catts study).

Background: The proportion of young breast cancer patients in China is significantly higher than in Western countries, and the clinicopathological characteristics and clinical problems faced by patients in China are different from those in Western countries too, so there is an urgent need to conduct some studies for young breast cancer patients in Asia. Methods: This study consisted of two breast cancer cohorts in China. The population-based cohort involved breast cancer cases diagnosed in 2000-2017 via cancer registration system, and we describe the epidemiological characteristics of the young breast cancer in China. The hospital-based cohort, patients eligible for enrollment were breast cancer in young women (≤35 years old) from eight centres in different regions of China, diagnosed and treated for the first time in six time periods (i.e., 2000, 2003, 2006, 2009, 2012, and 2015). Patient demographic characteristics and clinical features were compared among the six time periods using a trend test. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to generate survival curves, and the log-rank test was performed to compare OS and DFS. Univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out using Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Findings: In the population-based cohort, age-specific incidence and age-standardised percentages of breast cancer cases younger than 35 years were increased. The proportion of breast cancer under the age of 35 is increasing more rapidly in rural areas than in urban areas. In the hospital-based cohort, a total of 1308 young breast cancer patients (≤35 years old) were collected. Proportion of patients treated with adjuvant taxane or anthracycline combined with taxane is gradually increasing over the six time periods, and the proportion of patients undergoing breast-conserving surgery is gradually increasing too. Meanwhile, the patients treated with combined ovarian function suppression (OFS) endocrine therapy gradually increased, and the duration of endocrine therapy gradually longer. There is an increasing trend in 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) rate for the total population in the six time periods between 2000 and 2015, but no significant difference in overall survival (OS) rate was observed. Early staging and longer duration of endocrine therapy were factors associated with a favorable prognosis. Interpretation: The incidence of younger breast cancers under 35 years of age has gradually increased and the pattern of patient care has changed significantly over time, which may contribute to the improved prognosis of younger breast cancer patients. Funding: Beijing Medical Award Foundation (YXJL-2020-0941-0763), Beijing Hope Run Special Fund of Cancer Foundation of China (LC2021L04), Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Clinical Translational and Medical Research Fund (2022-I2M-C&T-A-014).

Performance and effectiveness of hepatocellular carcinoma screening in individuals with HBsAg seropositivity in China: a multicenter prospective study.

Current guidelines recommend hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance for at-risk individuals, including individuals with hepatitis B virus infection. However, the performance and survival benefits of annual screening have not been evaluated through multicenter prospective studies in a Chinese population. Between 2017 and 2021, we included 14,426 participants with hepatitis B surface antigen seropositivity in an annual HCC screening study in China using a multicenter prospective design with ultrasonography and serum alpha-fetoprotein. After four rounds of screening and follow-up, the adjusted hazard ratios of death after correction for lead-time and length-time biases for screen-detected cancers at the prevalent and incident rounds were 0.74 (95% confidence interval = 0.60-0.91) and 0.52 (95% confidence interval = 0.40-0.68), respectively. A meta-analysis demonstrated that HCC screening was associated with improved survival after adjusting for lead-time bias. Our findings highlight the 'real-world' feasibility and effectiveness of annual HCC screening in community settings for the early detection of HCC and to improve survival.

Long-term esophageal cancer risk and distinct surveillance intervals after a single endoscopy screening: a multicentre population-based cohort study.

Background: Endoscopy surveillance is recommended for mild-moderate dysplasia and negative endoscopy findings every 3 years and 5 years, respectively, but evidence is limited. This study aimed to assess long-term esophageal cancer (EC) incidence and mortality after a single endoscopy screening. Methods: We included individuals at high risk of EC aged 40-69 years who underwent endoscopy screening in 2007-2012 at six centres in rural China and had a baseline diagnosis of negative endoscopy findings, mild dysplasia, or moderate dysplasia. Participants were followed up for EC incidence and mortality. Cumulative incidence and mortality rates of EC were estimated by Kaplan-Meier analyses. Cox regression models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between baseline endoscopy diagnosis and the risk of EC incidence and mortality. EC incidence and mortality after a single endoscopy screening were compared with those of the population in rural China by the standardized incidence ratio (SIR) and standardized mortality ratio (SMR). Findings: A total of 42,827 participants (40,977 with negative endoscopy findings, 1562 with mild dysplasia, and 288 with moderate dysplasia) were included; 268 EC cases and 128 EC deaths were identified during a median follow-up of 10.62 years. The cumulative EC incidence at 10 years was 0.45% (0.38-0.52) in the group with negative endoscopy findings, 2.39% (1.62-3.16) in the mild dysplasia group, and 8.90% (5.57-12.24) in the moderate dysplasia group, and the cumulative EC mortality at 10 years was 0.23% (0.18-0.27), 0.96% (0.46-1.46), and 2.50% (0.67-4.33), respectively. Compared with individuals with negative endoscopy findings, the HRs for EC incidence and mortality in the mild dysplasia group were 3.52 (2.49-4.97) and 2.43 (1.41-4.19), and those in the moderate dysplasia group were 13.18 (8.78-19.76) and 6.46 (3.13-13.29), respectively. The SIR was 0.53 (0.40-0.70) for the group with negative endoscopy findings, 1.95 (1.69-2.24) for the mild dysplasia group, and 6.75 (6.25-7.28) for the moderate dysplasia group, with the SMRs of 0.43 (0.31-0.58), 1.07 (0.88-1.29) and 2.67 (2.36-3.01), respectively. Interpretation: Individuals with negative endoscopy findings after a single endoscopy screening had a lower EC risk than the general population for up to 10.62 years, while those with mild-moderate dysplasia had an elevated risk. Our results support endoscopy surveillance for mild-moderate dysplasia every 3 years and suggest extending the interval to 10 years after a negative endoscopy finding. Funding: National Key R&D Programme of China, Special Project of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Basic Research Cooperation, and Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen.

Racial/ethnic disparities in the cause of death among patients with prostate cancer in the United States from 1995 to 2019: a population-based retrospective cohort study.

Background: Racial/ethnic disparities in prostate cancer are reported in the United States (US). However, long-term trends and contributors of racial/ethnic disparities in all-cause and cause-specific death among patients with prostate cancer remain unclear. We analysed the trends and contributors of racial/ethnic disparities in prostate cancer survivors according to the cause of death in the US over 25 years. Methods: In this retrospective, population-based longitudinal cohort study, we identified patients diagnosed with first primary prostate cancer between 1995 and 2019, with follow-up until Dec 31, 2019, using population-based cancer registries' data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. We calculated the cumulative incidence of death for each racial/ethnic group (Black, white, Hispanic, Asian or Pacific Islander [API], and American Indian or Alaska Native [AI/AN] people), by diagnostic period and cause of death. We quantified absolute disparities using rate changes for the 5-year cumulative incidence of death between racial/ethnic groups and diagnostic periods. We estimated relative (Hazard ratios [HR]) racial/ethnic disparities and the percentage of potential factors contributed to racial/ethnic disparities using Cox regression models. Findings: Despite a decreasing trend in the cumulative risk of death across five racial/ethnic groups, AI/AN and Black patients consistently had the highest rate of death between 1995 and 2019 with an adjusted HR of 1.48 (1.40-1.58) and 1.40 (1.38-1.42) respectively. The disparities in all-cause mortality between AI/AN and white patients increased over time, with adjusted HR 1.32 (1.17-1.49) in 1995-1999 and 1.95 (1.53-2.49) in 2015-2019. Adjustment of stage at diagnosis, initial treatment, tumor grade, and household income explained 33% and 24% of the AI/AN-white and Black-white disparities in all-cause death among patients with prostate cancer. Interpretation: The enduring racial/ethnic disparities in patients with prostate cancer, call for new interventions to eliminate health disparities. Our study provides important evidence and ways to address racial/ethnic inequality. Funding: National Key R&D Program of China, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Beijing Municipal Administration of Hospitals Clinical Medicine Development of Special Funding Support, the Open Research Fund from Beijing Advanced Innovation Center for Big Data-Based Precision Medicine, Key Projects of Philosophy and Social Sciences Research, Ministry of Education of China.

Global patterns of cancer transitions: A modelling study.

Cancer is a major contributor to global disease burden. Many countries experienced or are experiencing the transition that non-infection-related cancers replace infection-related cancers. We aimed to characterise burden changes for major types of cancers and identify global transition patterns. We focused on 10 most common cancers worldwide and extracted age-standardised incidence and mortality in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 through the Global Burden of Disease Study. Two-stage modelling design was used. First, we applied growth mixture models (GMMs) to identify distinct trajectories for incidence and mortality of each cancer type. Next, we performed latent class analysis to detect cancer transition patterns based on the categorisation results from GMMs. Kruskal-Wallis H tests were conducted to evaluate associations between transition patterns and socioeconomic indicators. Three distinct patterns were identified as unfavourable, intermediate and favourable stages. Trajectories of lung and breast cancers had the strongest association with transition patterns among men and women. The unfavourable stage was characterised by rapid increases in lung, breast and colorectal cancers alongside stable or decreasing burden of gastric, cervical, oesophageal and liver cancers. In contrast, the favourable stage exhibited rapid declines in most cancers. The unfavourable stage was associated with lower sociodemographic index, health expenditure, gross domestic product per capita and higher maternal mortality ratio (P < .001 for all associations). Our findings suggest that unfavourable, intermediate and favourable transition patterns exist. Countries and territories in the unfavourable stage tend to be socioeconomically disadvantaged, and tailored intervention strategies are needed in these resource-limited settings.

Profiles and Findings of Population-Based Esophageal Cancer Screening With Endoscopy in China: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Population-based esophageal cancer (EC) screening trials and programs have been conducted in China for decades; however, screening strategies have been adopted in different regions and screening profiles are unclear. OBJECTIVE: We performed a meta-analysis to profile EC screening in China by positivity rate, compliance rate, and endoscopy findings, aiming to provide explicit evidence and recommendations for EC screening programs. METHODS: English (PubMed, Embase) and Chinese (China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang) language databases were systematically searched for population-based EC screening studies in the Chinese population until December 31, 2022. A meta-analysis was performed by standard methodology using a random-effects model. Pooled prevalence rates were calculated for three groups: high-risk areas with a universal endoscopy strategy, rural China with a risk-stratified endoscopic screening (RSES) strategy, and urban China with an RSES strategy. Positive cases included lesions of severe dysplasia, carcinoma in situ, intramucosal carcinoma, submucosal carcinoma, and invasive carcinoma. RESULTS: The pooled positivity rate of the high-risk population was higher in rural China (44.12%) than in urban China (23.11%). The compliance rate of endoscopic examinations was the highest in rural China (52.40%), followed by high-risk areas (50.11%), and was the lowest in urban China (23.67%). The pooled detection rate of positive cases decreased from 1.03% (95% CI 0.82%-1.30%) in high-risk areas to 0.48% (95% CI 0.25%-0.93%) in rural China and 0.12% (95% CI 0.07%-0.21%) in urban China. The pooled detection rate of low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (LGIN) was also in the same order, being the highest in high-risk areas (3.99%, 95% CI 2.78%-5.69%), followed by rural China (2.55%, 95% CI 1.03%-6.19%) and urban China (0.34%, 95% CI 0.14%-0.81%). Higher detection rates of positive cases and LGIN were observed among males than among females and at older ages. The pooled early detection rate was 81.90% (95% CI 75.58%-86.88%), which was similar to the rates in high-risk areas (82.09%), in rural China (80.76%), and in urban China (80.08%). CONCLUSIONS: Under the current screening framework, a higher screening benefit was observed in high-risk areas than in other regions. To promote EC screening and reduce the current inequality of screening in China, more focus should be given to optimizing strategies of high-risk individual assessment and surveillance management to improve compliance with endoscopic examination. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42022375720; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=375720.

A strategy to reduce the false-positive rate after low-dose computed tomography in lung cancer screening: A multicenter prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The ability of lung cancer screening to manage pulmonary nodules was limited because of the high false-positive rate in the current mainstream screening method, low-dose computed tomography (LDCT). We aimed to reduce overdiagnosis in Chinese population. METHODS: Lung cancer risk prediction models were constructed using data from a population-based cohort in China. Independent clinical data from two programs performed in Beijing and Shandong, respectively, were used as the external validation set. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to estimate the probability of lung cancer incidence in the whole population and in smokers and nonsmokers. RESULTS: In our cohort, 1,016,740 participants were enrolled between 2013 and 2018. Of 79,581 who received LDCT screening, 5165 participants with suspected pulmonary nodules were allocated into the training set, of which, 149 lung cancer cases were diagnosed. In the validation set, 1815 patients were included, and 800 developed lung cancer. The ages of patients and radiologic factors of nodules (calcification, density, mean diameter, edge, and pleural involvement) were included in our model. The area under the curve (AUC) values of the model were 0.868 (95% CI: 0.839-0.894) in the training set and 0.751 (95% CI: 0.727-0.774) in the validation set. The sensitivity and specificity were 70.5% and 70.9%, respectively, which could reduce the 68.8% false-positive rate in simulated LDCT screening. There was no substantial difference between smokers' and nonsmokers' prediction models. CONCLUSION: Our models could facilitate the diagnosis of suspected pulmonary nodules, effectively reducing the false-positive rate of LDCT for lung cancer screening.

Stomach cancer burden in China: Epidemiology and prevention.

In 2020, stomach cancer was the fifth most commonly diagnosed cancer and the fourth leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Due to the relatively huge population base and the poor survival rate, stomach cancer is still a threat in China, and accounts for nearly half of the cases worldwide. Fortunately, in China, the incidence and mortality rates of stomach cancer presented a declining trend owing to the change of individual life styles and the persistent efforts to prevent stomach cancer from the governments at all levels. Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection, poor eating habits, smoking, history of gastrointestinal disorders, and family history of stomach cancer are the main risk factors for stomach cancer in China. As a result, by taking risk factors for stomach cancer into account, specific preventive measures, such as eradicating H. pylori and implementing stomach cancer screening projects, should be taken to better prevent and decrease the burden of stomach cancer.

Modifiable risk-attributable and age-related burden of lung cancer in China, 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: There were limited studies on the quantification of the modifiable and nonmodifiable lung cancer burden over time in China. Furthermore, the potential effect of risk factor reduction for lung cancer on gains in life expectancy (LE) remains unknown. METHODS: This study explored temporal trends in lung cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) attributable to modifiable risk factors from 1990 to 2019, based on the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. The abridged period life table method was used to quantify the effect of risk factors on LE. The authors used the decomposition approach to estimate contributions of aging metrics to change in the lung cancer burden. RESULTS: Nationally, the majority of lung cancer deaths and DALYs were attributable to behavioral and environmental risk clusters. Potential gains in life expectancy (PGLE) at birth would be 0.78 years for males and 0.35 years for females if the exposure to risk factors was mitigated to the theoretical minimum level. Tobacco use had the most robust impact on LE for both sexes (PGLE: 0.71 years for males and 0.19 years for females). From 1990 to 2019, risk-attributable age-standardized death and DALY rates of lung cancer showed an increasing trend in both sexes; adult population growth imposed 245.9 thousand deaths and 6.2 million DALYs for lung cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The modifiable risk-attributable lung cancer burden remains high in China. Effective tobacco control is the critical step toward addressing the lung cancer burden. Adult population growth was the foremost driver of transition in the age-related lung cancer burden. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: We estimate the lung cancer burden attributable to modifiable and nonmodifiable contributors and the effect of risk factor reduction for lung cancer on the life expectancy in China. The findings suggest that the majority of lung cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life years were attributable to behavioral risk clusters, and the risk-attributable lung cancer burden increased nationally from 1990 to 2019. The average gains in life expectancy would be 0.78 years for males and 0.35 years for females if the exposure to risk factors for lung cancer was reduced to the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. Adult population growth was identified as the foremost driver of variation in the aging lung cancer burden.

Cost-effectiveness of the screen-and-treat strategies using HPV test linked to thermal ablation for cervical cancer prevention in China: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Self-sampling HPV test and thermal ablation are effective tools to increase screening coverage and treatment compliance for accelerating cervical cancer elimination. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of their combined strategies to inform accessible, affordable, and acceptable cervical cancer prevention strategies. METHODS: We developed a hybrid model to evaluate costs, health outcomes, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) of six screen-and-treat strategies combining HPV testing (self-sampling or physician-sampling), triage modalities (HPV genotyping, colposcopy or none) and thermal ablation, from a societal perspective. A designated initial cohort of 100,000 females born in 2015 was considered. Strategies with an ICER less than the Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) per capita ($10,350) were considered highly cost-effective. RESULTS: Compared with current strategies in China (physician-HPV with genotype or cytology triage), all screen-and-treat strategies are cost-effective and self-HPV without triage is optimal with the most incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained (220 to 440) in rural and urban China. Each screen-and-treat strategy based on self-collected samples is cost-saving compared with current strategies (-$818,430 to -$3540) whereas more costs are incurred using physician-collected samples compared with current physician-HPV with genotype triage (+$20,840 to +$182,840). For screen-and-treat strategies without triage, more costs (+$9404 to +$380,217) would be invested in the screening and treatment of precancerous lesions rather than the cancer treatment compared with the current screening strategies. Notably, however, more than 81.6% of HPV-positive women would be overtreated. If triaged with HPV 7 types or HPV16/18 genotypes, 79.1% or 67.2% (respectively) of HPV-positive women would be overtreated with fewer cancer cases avoided (19 cases or 69 cases). CONCLUSIONS: Screen-and-treat strategy using self-sampling HPV test linked to thermal ablation could be the most cost-effective for cervical cancer prevention in China. Additional triage with quality-assured performance could reduce overtreatment and remains highly cost-effective compared with current strategies.

Global trajectories of liver cancer burden from 1990 to 2019 and projection to 2035.

BACKGROUND: Large disparities exist in liver cancer burden trends across countries but are poorly understood. We aimed to investigate the global trajectories of liver cancer burden, explore the driving forces, and predict future trends. METHODS: Data on the liver cancer burden in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) trajectories were defined using growth mixture models. Five major risk factors contributing to changes in the ASIR or ASMR and socioeconomic determinants were explored using the identified trajectories. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict future trends through 2035. RESULTS: Three trajectories of liver cancer burden were identified: increasing, stable, and decreasing groups. Almost half of the American countries were classified in the decreasing group (48.6% for ASIR and ASMR), and the increasing group was the most common in the European region (ASIR, 49.1%; ASMR, 37.7%). In the decreasing group, the decrease of liver cancer due to hepatitis B contributed 63.4% and 60.4% of the total decreases in ASIR and ASMR, respectively. The increase of liver cancer due to alcohol use, hepatitis C, and hepatitis B contributed the most to the increase in the increasing group (30.8%, 31.1%, and 24.2% for ASIR; 33.7%, 30.2%, and 22.2% for ASMR, respectively). The increasing group was associated with a higher sociodemographic index, gross domestic product per capita, health expenditure per capita, and universal health coverage (all P <0.05). Significant variations in disease burden are predicted to continue through 2035, with a disproportionate burden in the decreasing group. CONCLUSION: Global disparities were observed in liver cancer burden trajectories. Hepatitis B, alcohol use, and hepatitis C were identified as driving forces in different regions.