Interleukin-8 predicts short-term mortality in acute-on-chronic liver failure patients with hepatitis B-related-related cirrhosis background.

BACKGROUND: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a distinctive and severe syndrome, marked by an excessive systemic inflammatory response. In vivo, interleukin 8 (IL-8) is an essential pro-inflammatory cytokine. We aimed to investigate the value of serum IL-8 levels in predicting mortality in ACLF patients in the background of hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis. METHODS: In this study, we conducted a retrospective analysis of the clinical baseline characteristics of 276 patients with ACLF in the context of HBV-related cirrhosis. Logistic regression analysis was employed to identify independent risk factors for short-, intermediate-, and long-term mortality. Using these independent risk factors, we developed a nomogram model, which was subsequently validated. To assess the clinical usefulness of the nomogram model, we performed decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: Out of the 276 patients with ACLF, 98 (35.5%), 113 (40.9%), and 128 (46.4%) died within 28, 90, and 180 days, respectively. Serum IL-8 levels were only an independent predictor of 28-day mortality and could simply classify ACLF patients. Conversely, mean arterial pressure (MAP), HBV-DNA, and COSHACLF IIs were independent predictors of mortality across all three observation periods. We constructed a nomogram based on IL-8 that was able to visualise and predict 28-day mortality with a C-index of 0.901 (95% CI: 0.862-0.940). Our calibration curves, Predicted Probability of Death & Actual Survival Status plot, and Confusion Matrix demonstrated the nomogram model's strong predictive power. DCA indicated the nomogram's promising clinical utility in predicting 28-day mortality in ACLF patients. CONCLUSION: Serum IL-8 levels predict short-term mortality in ACLF patients in the background of HBV-associated cirrhosis, and the developed Nomogram model has strong predictive power and good clinical utility.

Systemic inflammatory response is a pathophysiological feature of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure, and the serum level of interleukin-8 can predict the short-term prognosis of patients.

IL-10 predicts the prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure combined with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis.

Background: Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is common in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). The prognostic value of interleukin-related serum markers for patients with ACLF is coming to the fore. However, there is an unmet need to predict the survival of such patients. We aimed to analyze the independent predictors of 28- and 90-day mortality in HBV-ACLF patients with SBP. Methods: This was a retrospective study that included 368 patients with HBV-ACLF. In the SBP group, logistic regression analysis was used to understand the independent predictors of mortality at 28-day and 90-day. The accuracy of prediction was analyzed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Finally, decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to determine the clinical utility value. Results: Interleukin 10 (IL-10) levels were statistically significantly different between the HBV-ACLF group with SBP and without. Aspartate aminotransferase (AST), serum sodium, IL-10 and vasoactive drug treatment were independent risk factors for 28-day mortality. International normalized ratio (INR), AST and IL-10 were independent risk factors for 90-day mortality. IL-10 combined with the Chinese Severe Hepatitis B Study Group-ACLF II score (COSH-ACLF IIs) had excellent performance in predicting 28- and 90-day mortality (AUCs: 0.848 and 0.823, respectively). DCA analysis suggests promising clinical utility. Conclusion: IL-10 is an independent predictor of mortality at 28- and 90-day in HBV-ACLF patients with SBP and predictive performance is improved when combined with COSH-ACLF IIs.

A practical nomogram based on serum interleukin-6 for the prognosis of liver failure.

Background: Liver failure (LF) is a serious liver function damage caused by various factors, mainly jaundice, hepatic encephalopathy, coagulation disorders and multiple organ failure, with the clinical characteristic of high short-term mortality. LF is often accompanied by excessive activation of inflammatory factors, and an excessive systemic inflammatory response (i.e., inflammatory storm) is considered to be the trigger of LF. However, a specific prognostic model including inflammatory factors for patients with LF has not been well established. Aim: To establish and validate a nomogram for predicting 28-day, 90-day, and 180-day mortality in patients with LF. Methods: A total of 423 eligible LF patients were enrolled in this retrospective study. Independent predictors were identified using a multivariate logistic model and then integrated into a nomogram to predict 28-day, 90-day, and 180-day mortality. The concordance index, receiver operating characteristic curves, and calibration plots were used to evaluate the performance of the model. Results: Sex, age, total bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase, international normalized ratio, Child-Pugh score, and serum interleukin-6 were independent risk factors for death at 28, 90, and 180 days in LF patients. The nomogram showed good calibration and discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.927. The calibration curve fit as well, indicating that the nomogram had good clinical application value. Conclusion: This nomogram model for predicting the 28-day, 90-day, and 180-day mortality of LF patients could help optimize treatment strategies and improve prognosis.

A Liver Stiffness Measurement-Based Nomogram Predicts Variceal Rebleeding in Hepatitis B-Related Cirrhosis.

Background: Cirrhosis esophageal variceal rebleeding is a major complication of chronic cirrhosis. The hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) can predict the risk of rebleeding in patients with cirrhosis and has a good correlation with liver stiffness measurement (LSM). However, there are currently few studies based on liver stiffness to predict the risk of rebleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis. This study is aimed at exploring whether liver stiffness can predict rebleeding in patients with hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis and developing an easy-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of rebleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis undergoing secondary prevention. Methods: A prospective analysis of 289 cirrhosis patients was performed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors to create a nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by using a bootstrapped-concordance index and calibration plots. Results: Use of a nonselective beta-blocker (NSBB) drug, LSM, hemoglobin, and platelet count were identified as factors that could predict rebleeding. We created a nomogram for rebleeding in cirrhosis by using these risk factors. The predictive ability of the nomogram was assessed by the C-index (0.772, 95% CI 0.732-0.822). The results of the calibration plots showed that the actual observation and prediction values obtained by the nomogram had good consistency. Conclusions: LSM can predict the risk of rebleeding in patients with cirrhosis, while the nomogram is a conventional tool for doctors to facilitate a personalized prognostic evaluation.

Increased Serum Levels of sCD206 Are Associated with Adverse Prognosis in Patients with HBV-Related Decompensated Cirrhosis.

Background: HBV-associated decompensated cirrhosis (HBV-DeCi) is attracting considerable attention due to disease acceleration and substantial mortality. Macrophages regulate the fibrotic process in DeCi. Soluble CD206 (sCD206) is primarily expressed by macrophages. We aimed to investigate whether sCD206 predicts mortality in patients with HBV-DeCi. Materials and Methods: A total of 382 patients were enrolled between February 2020 and February 2021 and divided into nonsurviving and surviving groups according to 28-day, 3-month, and 6-month outcomes. Cox regression analysis was performed to confirm the independent prognostic factors of HBV-DeCi, and Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to draw survival curves of sCD206. The predictive value of sCD206 was assessed at three time points according to the AUROC. Results: The serum sCD206 level was significantly higher in deceased patients than surviving patients. Multivariate analysis showed that the level of sCD206 was related to an increased risk of 28-day, 3-month, and 6-month mortality (HR = 3.914, P < 0.001; HR = 3.895, P < 0.001; and HR = 4.063, P < 0.001, respectively). Patients with higher sCD206 levels had a worse prognosis than those with lower sCD206 levels. The best separation between the decedents and survivors was obtained by using the sCD206 level (AUROC: 0.830, 0.802, and 0.784, respectively) at 28 days, 3 months, and 6 months. Conclusion: The macrophage-related marker serum sCD206 was associated with mortality in HBV-DeCi patients. High levels of serum sCD206 indicated a poor prognosis in these patients. Serum sCD206 has great predictive value for short-term and midterm mortality compared with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores.

Soluble CD163 Is a Predictor of Mortality in Patients With Decompensated Cirrhosis.

Background: Soluble CD163 (sCD163) is a scavenger receptor membrane protein expressed almost exclusively on Kupffer cells and other macrophages. It was found to be associated with the severity of liver cirrhosis. The aim of the present study was to determine whether the novel biomarker sCD163 predicts outcomes in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Materials and Methods: A single-center, observational, prospective study with 345 decompensated cirrhosis patients was conducted in the Gastroenterology Department between January 2017 and December 2020. Their plasma samples were tested by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for sCD163 within 24 hours of admission. These patients were followed up at 28 days, 3 months and 6 months. The independent risk factors were identified with uni- and multivariate logistic regression analyses. We evaluated the predictive performance of the new scoring system (including sCD163) and the original scoring system. Results: The sCD163 level was significantly higher in non-surviving patients than in surviving patients. Positive associations were found between sCD163 levels and the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) scores. Logistic regression confirmed that sCD163 was an independent risk factor for 28-day, 3-month, and 6-month mortality. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of the use of sCD163 for the prediction of 28-day, 3-month, and 6-month mortality were relatively higher (AUROCs: 0.856; 0.823 and 0.811, respectively). The AUROCs of the new scores obtained by adding sCD163 to the original scoring systems (CTP + sCD163, MELD + sCD163 and ALBI + sCD163) showed that the new scoring systems had better predictive performance than the original scoring systems at all time points (P < 0.001). Conclusion: sCD163 is a prognostic predictor of short-term and long-term outcomes in decompensated cirrhosis patients. Accordingly, the addition of sCD163 to the original clinical scoring systems improved their prognostic performance.