Serum Procalcitonin, White Blood Cell and Hypersensitive C-reactive Protein Combined with Age Established a New Prediction Model in Predicting ICU Admission in Adult Community-Acquired Pneumonia (CAP) Patients.

BACKGROUND: CAP is the most common cause of death in infectious diseases in developing countries, while also an important cause of death and morbidity in developed countries. In recent years, CURB-65 (or CRB-65) and pneumonia severity index (PSI) scoring systems have been widely used in the prognosis scoring system of CAP. However, each of them has some shortcomings in predicting ICU admission in CAP patients. The aim of this study is to analyze serum inflammatory biomarkers combined age to established a new prediction model in predicting ICU admission in CAP patients. METHODS: This is a retrospective study. The enrolled CAP patients received serum inflammatory biomarker tests, including procalcitonin (PCT), white blood cell count (WBC), hypersensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR). Body temperature and age were also recorded. The main outcome measures were ICU admission. Univariate analysis and binary logistic regression analysis were used to explore the in-dependent risk factors which could be components of a new predicting model for ICU admission in CAP patients. Receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) were used to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of the new model, which consisted of the combination of all independent risk factors in predicting the main outcomes. RESULTS: Initially, 246 CAP patients were admitted to general wards, 61 of whom were subsequently transferred to ICU (61/246). Age, PCT, WBC, and hs-CRP were independent risk factors for subsequent admission to ICU for CAP patients in general wards. The AUC of the ROC curve of new prediction model (the joint model consists of age, PCT, WBC, and hs-CRP) was 0.93 (95% CI 0.85 - 0.96), the sensitivity and specificity were 85.2% and 88.1%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Serum inflammatory biomarkers combined age have high specificity and sensitivity in predicting ICU admission in adult CAP patients.

Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Improves the Accuracy and Sensitivity of Pneumonia Severity Index in Predicting 30-Day Mortality of CAP Patients.

BACKGROUND: The pneumonia severity index (PSI) scoring system is one of the tools used to evaluate and predict the prognosis of patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Although PSI has been widely used in clinical studies of pneumonia, it is still rare to combine it with blood indexes to predict the prognosis of pneumonia. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is a promising candidate predictor of mortality in CAP patients. The aim of this study was to investigate the efficacy of pneumonia severity index combined with NLR in predicting 30-day mortality in CAP patients. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study. We analyzed data on 400 non-immune individuals over the age of 18 in this study. All patients received blood routine measurement and PSI score calculation after admission. The primary outcome measures were mortality and survival in CAP patients. The sensitivity and specificity of PSI score, NLR, and the combination of PSI score and NLR in predicting 30-day mortality were assessed using the subject operating characteristic curve (ROC). RESULTS: Data from 400 patients were analyzed, in which the 30-day mortality was 10.5% (42/400). The AUC of NLR and PSI in predicting 30-day mortality of CAP patients were 0.81 (95% CI 0.73 - 0.89) and 0.94 (95% CI 0.90 - 0.98), respectively, with statistically significant differences (p = 0.00). The sensitivity and specificity of NLR were 0.80 and 0.7, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of PSI were 0.78 and 0.94, respectively. The combined AUC of the two indicators for predicting death in CAP patients was 0.95 (95% CI 0.92 - 0.99), and the sensitivity and specificity were 0.85 and 0.94, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio improves the accuracy and sensitivity of the pneumonia severity index in predicting 30-day mortality of CAP patients.