Linking Ecology and Epidemiology to Understand Predictors of Multi-Host Responses to an Emerging Pathogen, the Amphibian Chytrid Fungus.

Variation in host responses to pathogens can have cascading effects on populations and communities when some individuals or groups of individuals display disproportionate vulnerability to infection or differ in their competence to transmit infection. The fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has been detected in almost 700 different amphibian species and is implicated in numerous global amphibian population declines. Identifying key hosts in the amphibian-Bd system-those who are at greatest risk or who pose the greatest risk for others-is challenging due in part to many extrinsic environmental factors driving spatiotemporal Bd distribution and context-dependent host responses to Bd in the wild. One way to improve predictive risk models and generate testable mechanistic hypotheses about vulnerability is to complement what we know about the spatial epidemiology of Bd with data collected through comparative experimental studies. We used standardized pathogen challenges to quantify amphibian survival and infection trajectories across 20 post-metamorphic North American species raised from eggs. We then incorporated trait-based models to investigate the predictive power of phylogenetic history, habitat use, and ecological and life history traits in explaining responses to Bd. True frogs (Ranidae) displayed the lowest infection intensities, whereas toads (Bufonidae) generally displayed the greatest levels of mortality after Bd exposure. Affiliation with ephemeral aquatic habitat and breadth of habitat use were strong predictors of vulnerability to and intensity of infection and several other traits including body size, lifespan, age at sexual maturity, and geographic range also appeared in top models explaining host responses to Bd. Several of the species examined are highly understudied with respect to Bd such that this study represents the first experimental susceptibility data. Combining insights gained from experimental studies with observations of landscape-level disease prevalence may help explain current and predict future pathogen dynamics in the Bd system.

Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures.

Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest) with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary), including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific) and also separately per region (region-specific). One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas, especially for sensitive species and those vulnerable to multiple threats.

Development and infectious disease in hosts with complex life cycles.

Metamorphosis is often characterized by profound changes in morphology and physiology that can affect the dynamics of species interactions. For example, the interaction between a pathogen and its host may differ depending on the life stage of the host or pathogen. One pathogen that infects hosts with complex life cycles is the emerging fungal pathogen of amphibians, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). We sought to determine how conditions at the larval stage can affect variation in development and patterns of Bd infection across amphibian life stages. We used outdoor experimental mesocosms to simulate natural pond habitats and manipulated the presence of Bd, the larval density, and the number of host species in larvae of two co-occurring amphibian species (Rana cascadae and Pseudacris regilla). We found that infection differed between species throughout development; P. regilla consistently had higher infection severity compared to R. cascadae. Additionally, while up to 100% of larvae were infected, only 18.2% of R. cascadae and 81.5% of P. regilla were infected after metamorphosis. This indicates that amphibians have the ability to recover from Bd infection as they undergo metamorphosis. Higher larval densities in P. regilla led to a shorter larval period, and individuals with a shorter larval period had lower infection severity. This led to a trend where P. regilla larvae reared at high densities tended to have lower infection prevalence after metamorphosis. We also found that exposure to Bd increased larval mortality and prolonged the larval period in P. regilla, indicating that P. regilla are susceptible to the negative effects of Bd as larvae. This study demonstrates that host density, species composition, and pathogen exposure may all interact to influence development and infection in hosts with complex life cycles.