Climate change impacts on the extreme power shortage events of wind-solar supply systems worldwide during 1980-2022.

Economic productivity depends on reliable access to electricity, but the extreme shortage events of variable wind-solar systems may be strongly affected by climate change. Here, hourly reanalysis climatological data are leveraged to examine historical trends in defined extreme shortage events worldwide. We find uptrends in extreme shortage events regardless of their frequency, duration, and intensity since 1980. For instance, duration of extreme low-reliability events worldwide has increased by 4.1 hours (0.392 hours per year on average) between 1980-2000 and 2001-2022. However, such ascending trends are unevenly distributed worldwide, with a greater variability in low- and middle-latitude developing countries. This uptrend in extreme shortage events is driven by extremely low wind speed and solar radiation, particularly compound wind and solar drought, which however are strongly disproportionated. Only average 12.5% change in compound extremely low wind speed and solar radiation events may give rise to over 30% variability in extreme shortage events, despite a mere average 1.0% change in average wind speed and solar radiation. Our findings underline that wind-solar systems will probably suffer from weakened power security if such uptrends persist in a warmer future.

Cost-effectiveness uncertainty may bias the decision of coal power transitions in China.

A transition away from coal power always maintains a high level of complexity as there are several overlapping considerations such as technical feasibility, economic costs, and environmental and health impacts. Here, we explore the cost-effectiveness uncertainty brought by policy implementation disturbances of different coal power phaseout and new-built strategies (i.e., the disruption of phaseout priority) in China based on a developed unit-level uncertainty assessment framework. We reveal the opportunity and risk of coal transition decisions by employing preference analysis. We find that, the uncertainty of a policy implementation might lead to potential delays in yielding the initial positive annual net benefits. For example, a delay of six years might occur when implementing the prior phaseout practice. A certain level of risk remains in the implementation of the phaseout policy, as not all strategies can guarantee the cumulative positive net benefits from 2018-2060. Since the unit-level heterogeneities shape diverse orientation of the phaseout, the decision-making preferences would remarkably alter the selection of a coal power transition strategy. More strikingly, the cost-effectiveness uncertainty might lead to missed opportunities in identifying an optimal strategy. Our results highlight the importance of minimizing the policy implementation disturbance, which helps mitigate the risk of negative benefits and strengthen the practicality of phaseout decisions.

Plastic waste discharge to the global ocean constrained by seawater observations.

Marine plastic pollution poses a potential threat to the ecosystem, but the sources and their magnitudes remain largely unclear. Existing bottom-up emission inventories vary among studies for two to three orders of magnitudes (OMs). Here, we adopt a top-down approach that uses observed dataset of sea surface plastic concentrations and an ensemble of ocean transport models to reduce the uncertainty of global plastic discharge. The optimal estimation of plastic emissions in this study varies about 1.5 OMs: 0.70 (0.13-3.8 as a 95% confidence interval) million metric tons yr-1 at the present day. We find that the variability of surface plastic abundance caused by different emission inventories is higher than that caused by model parameters. We suggest that more accurate emission inventories, more data for the abundance in the seawater and other compartments, and more accurate model parameters are required to further reduce the uncertainty of our estimate.