ABSTRACT
Epiphyas postvittana, commonly known as the light brown apple moth (LBAM), is native to Australia and has a restricted global distribution. Its polyphagous nature and the recent surge in interceptions have emphasized the need for focused risk assessments to guide effective measures to curb the entry of this pest into new countries. This study aimed to perform a detailed global invasion risk assessment using an optimized MaxEnt model that incorporated 19 bioclimatic variables and elevation. The predictive outcomes underscored the significance of key variables, specifically the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), precipitation of the driest month (bio14), and precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19), in shaping the potential geographical distribution of LBAM. Regions beyond the existing range, including the southeastern United States, southern Brazil, eastern Argentina, Uruguay, southern Chile, and various Western European countries, were identified as susceptible to invasion and establishment by LBAM. An increase in suitability was observed above 45°N and 40°S under future climate scenario. With respect to climate change, LBAM would expand its potential range in Western Europe and the United States, especially under SSP5-8.5, in the 2050s. An upward trend in the latitudinal suitability gradient for LBAM in mid-high latitude areas implies that amid changing climate conditions, LBAM may find favorable habitats in these regions. For countries and regions with invasion risk, it is imperative to implement corresponding inspections and quarantine measures to thwart the introduction of LBAM, particularly in countries with established trade ties with invaded regions.
ABSTRACT
Middle East-Asia Minor 1 (MEAM1) and Mediterranean (MED) are two invasive cryptic species of the Bemisia tabaci species complex (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) that cause serious damage to agricultural and horticultural crops worldwide. To explore the possible impact of climate change on their distribution, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential distribution ranges of MEAM1 and MED in China under current and four future climate scenarios, using shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), namely SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, over four time periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100). The distribution ranges of MEAM1 and MED were extensive and similar in China under current climatic conditions, while their moderately and highly suitable habitat ranges differed. Under future climate scenarios, the areas of suitable habitat of different levels for MEAM1 and MED were predicted to increase to different degrees. However, the predicted expansion of suitable habitats varied between them, suggesting that these invasive cryptic species respond differently to climate change. Our results illustrate the difference in the effects of climate change on the geographical distribution of different cryptic species of B. tabaci and provide insightful information for further forecasting and managing the two invasive cryptic species in China.
