Usefulness of New Criteria for Metabolic Syndrome Optimized for Prediction of Cardiovascular Diseases in Japanese.

AIMS: We attempted to clarify whether the multiple criteria for metabolic syndrome (MetS) can sufficiently predict cardiovascular disease, whether waist circumference (WC) should be required, and whether sex-specific thresholds for each component are necessary. Only a few large-scale studies among East Asians have addressed the ability of MetS to predict cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We analyzed the data of 330,051 men and 235,028 women aged 18-74 years with no history of coronary artery disease (CAD) or cerebrovascular disease (CVD) from a nationwide Japanese claims database accumulated during 2008-2016. The association of each MetS component with CAD or CVD (CAD/CVD), MetS associated with CAD/CVD according to various criteria, and utility of modified criteria with more specific optimal values for each component were examined using multivariate Cox regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. RESULTS: During the study, 3,934 men (1.19%) and 893 women (0.38%) developed CAD/CVD. For each current MetS criteria, there was a 1.3- to 2.9-fold increased risk of CAD/CVD. Optimal thresholds for predicting CAD/CVD were WCs of 83 and 77 cm, triglycerides levels of 130 and 90 mg/dl, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels of 50 and 65 mg/dl, blood pressures of 130/80 and 120/80 mmHg, and fasting plasma glucose levels of 100 and 90 mg/dl for men and women, respectively. The existing MetS criteria and modified criteria were not significantly different in predicting CAD/CVD, but using the modified criteria markedly increased the prevalence of MetS and percentage of people with MetS developing CAD/CVD. CONCLUSIONS: Although various criteria for MetS similarly predicted CAD/CVD, the new criteria greatly reduced the number of high-risk individuals, especially women, overlooked by the current criteria.

Utility of a Physical Fitness Score in Screening for Chronic Diseases.

We developed a new Physical Score (PS) consisting of comprehensive physical fitness indicators and elucidated the association between the resultant PS and metabolic diseases, i.e., diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, fatty liver, and metabolic syndrome (MetS), among Japanese. Analyzed were 49,850 persons (30,039 men) aged 30 to 69 y who underwent physical fitness tests. Principal component analysis was performed on the correlation matrix of the physical fitness test results (relative grip strength, single-leg balance with eyes closed, and forward bending) according to sex and age. We defined the PS as the first principal component score. A formula was developed for various age groups comprised of men and women from 30 to 69 years of age from which the PS for each age and sex was calculated. The PS for both men and women was normally distributed with a value of 0 ± 1.15-1.16. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the risk of metabolic diseases increased approximately 1.1-1.6 times per each 1-point reduction in the PS. The association between PS and MetS was particularly strong in that a 1-point reduction in the PS increased the risk of MetS by 1.54 times (95% confidence interval 1.46 to 1.62) in men and by 1.21 times (1.15 to 1.28) in women. The association between a lower PS and disease risk was stronger in younger men for fatty liver and in older men for MetS. Conversely, in women, the association between a lower PS and disease risk was stronger in older women for fatty liver and in younger women for MetS. For diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia, the change in the impact of PS reductions across age groups was small. The PS is a useful and simple non-invasive tool for screening Japanese people for metabolic diseases.

Combined effects of blood pressure and glycemic status on risk of heart failure: a population-based study.

AIMS: To investigate the combined effects of blood pressure (BP) and glycemic status on the risk of heart failure. METHODS: Examined was a Japanese claims database from 2008 to 2019 on 589 621 individuals. Cox proportional hazards model identified the incidence of heart failure among five levels of SBP/DBP according to glucose status. RESULTS: Mean follow-up period was 5.6 years. The incidence of heart failure per 1000 person-years in the normoglycemia, borderline glycemia, and diabetes groups were 0.10, 0.18, and 0.80, respectively. In normoglycemia, a linear trend was observed between both SBP and DBP categories and hazard ratios for heart failure ( P for linearity <0.001). In borderline glycemia, J-shaped association was observed between DBP categories and hazard ratios, although the liner trend was significant ( P  < 0.001). In diabetes, the linear trend for the relationship between DBP categories and hazard ratios was not significant ( P  = 0.09) and the J-shaped association in relation to the hazard ratios was observed between SBP categories and heart failure risk. In the lowest SBP category (i.e. SBP < 120 mmHg), patients with diabetes had more than five-fold heart failure risk [hazard ratio (95% confidence interval), 5.10 (3.19-8.15)], compared with those with normoglycemia and SBP less than 120 mmHg. CONCLUSION: The association between SBP/DBP and heart failure risk weakened with worsening of glucose metabolism, suggesting strict BP control accompanied by excessively lowered DBP should be cautious in prevent heart failure in abnormal glycemic status. Particularly in diabetes, comprehensive management of risk factors other than BP may be essential to prevent heart failure. Further trials are needed to support these suggestions and apply them to clinical practice.

Association of the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and/or proteinuria to predict the risk of initiation of dialysis in people with and without diabetes.

Aims: To determine the associations between combined urinary protein (UP) and a reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and the risk of starting dialysis with or without diabetes mellitus (DM). Methods: A nationwide database with claims data on 335,778 people with and without DM aged 19-72 years in Japan was used to elucidate the impact of the severities of UP and eGFR on starting dialysis. Initiation of dialysis was determined from claims using ICD-10 codes and medical procedures. Using multivariate Cox modeling, we investigated the severities of UP and eGFR to predict the initiation of dialysis with and without DM. Results: Both eGFR < 60 and UP(+) were independent predictors for starting dialysis with and without DM, and their values exhibited a synergistic risk of dialysis. eGFR < 60 presented a nearly twofold risk for starting dialysis compared to UP(+) regardless of DM. Risk of starting dialysis was increased with UP(+) and eGFR ≥ 60 accompanied by DM although this association was not observed without DM. Those who had UP(-) and eGFR < 60 had a high risk of starting dialysis regardless of DM. Compared with DM(-)UP(-)eGFR ≥ 60, HRs for starting dialysis for DM(+)UP(+)eGFR ≥ 60, DM(+)UP(-)eGFR < 60 and DM(+)UP(+)eGFR < 60 significantly increased 17.7 (10.6-29.7), 25.5 (13.8-47.1) and 358.1 (239.1-536.5) times, respectively. Conclusions: eGFR < 60 and UP(+) together presented an extremely high risk of dialysis especially with DM. UP( +) increased the risk of starting dialysis regardless of the eGFR with DM. Both patient education and a treatment strategy by physicians might be helpful to avoid the progression of renal failure.

Fast walking and physical activity are independent contributors to improved physical function.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: To clarify whether the presence or absence of fast walking and habitual physical activity are independently associated with the incidence of functional disability. METHODS: This historical cohort study was comprised of 9,652 (4,412 men, mean age 65 years) individuals aged 39-98 years without functional disability at baseline. Functional disability was determined based on the Japanese long-term care insurance system, which specified requirements for assistance in the activities of daily living. The impact of fast walking and habitual physical activity on the incidence of functional disability was analysed by Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: The follow-up period was a median of 3.7 years during which 165 patients were newly certified as having functional disability. In the multivariate analysis, baseline age in 5-year increments (hazard ratio 2.42 [95% confidence interval 2.18-2.69]), no habitual physical activity (1.56 [1.07-2.27]), and not fast walking (1.89 [1.32-2.69]) significantly increased the risk of functional disability after adjustment for covariates. The stratified analysis showed that compared with physical activity (+), the impact of physical activity (-) on the incidence of functional disability was observed in those aged ≥75 years regardless of fast walking (+). Fast walking (-) significantly increased the risk of disability compared with fast walking (+) in those aged <75 years regardless of a physical activity habit. CONCLUSION: In Japanese, slow walking speed and lack of a physical activity habit were shown to be independent risk factors for incident functional disability, with their impact differing according to age.

Impact of metabolic syndrome and metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease on cardiovascular risk by the presence or absence of type 2 diabetes and according to sex.

BACKGROUND: To determine the impact of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and/or metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD), which are pathophysiologically similar and include insulin resistance, on the development of new-onset cardiovascular disease with and without type 2 diabetes and according to sex. METHODS: This study included 570,426 individuals without a history of cardiovascular disease who were enrolled in a nationwide claims database from 2008 to 2016 and were classified by the presence or absence of MetS and/or MAFLD stratified by the presence or absence of type 2 diabetes and sex. The fatty liver index was used to determine the presence or absence of fatty liver that required a diagnosis of MAFLD. Risks of developing coronary artery disease (CAD) and cerebrovascular disease (CVD) in each category were analyzed using a multivariate Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 5.2 years, 2252 CAD and 3128 CVD events occurred. Without type 2 diabetes the hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) for CAD/CVD compared with neither MAFLD nor MetS was 1.32 (1.17-1.50)/1.41(1.28-1.57) for MAFLD only (without MetS), 1.78 (1.22-2.58)/1.66 (1.34-2.06) for MetS only (without MAFLD), and 2.10 (1.84-2.39)/1.73 (1.54-1.95) for MAFLD + MetS. For those with type 2 diabetes, the HR for CAD for MAFLD only (compared with neither MAFLD nor MetS) was 1.29 (1.06-1.58), for MetS only 1.34 (0.84-2.13), and for MAFLD + MetS 1.22 (1.02-1.47). For CVD, there was a significant increase in HR only in MAFLD + MetS [1.44 (1.18-1.76)]. The results of the analysis stratified by sex showed that MAFLD had a greater impact in men, and MetS had a greater impact in women regarding the development of CAD. CONCLUSIONS: Distinguishing between MetS and/or MAFLD in the presence or absence of type 2 diabetes and according to sex may aid in accurately identifying patients at high risk of cardiovascular disease.

Impact of Medication Adherence and Glycemic Control on the Risk of Micro- and Macrovascular Diseases in Patients with Diabetes.

PURPOSE: Our purpose in the research was to clarify the impact of medication adherence to oral hypoglycemic agents during a 1-year period and subsequent glycemic control on the risk of micro- and macrovascular diseases. METHODS: Examined was a nationwide claims database on 13,256 individuals with diabetic eye disease without requiring prior treatment, 7,862 without prior initiation of dialysis, 15,556 without prior coronary artery disease, 16,243 without prior cerebrovascular disease, and 19,386 without prior heart failure from 2008 to 2016 in Japan. Medication adherence was evaluated by the proportion of days covered. Patients were considered to have poor adherence if the proportion of days covered was <80%. Multivariate Cox regression model identified risks of micro- and macrovascular diseases. RESULTS: In each group, mean age was 53 to 54 years, HbA1c was 7.1% to 7.2%, and median follow-up period was 4.6 to 5.1 years, and the percentage of poor adherence was approximately 30%. During the study period, 532 treatment-requiring diabetic eye disease, 75 dialysis, 389 coronary artery disease, 316 cerebrovascular disease, and 144 heart failure events occurred. Multivariate Cox regression model revealed that the hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of dialysis in the poor adherence group was 2.04 (1.27-3.30) compared with the good adherence group. The hazard ratios in the poor adherence/poor glycemic control group were 3.34 (2.63-4.24) for treatment-requiring diabetic eye disease, 4.23 (2.17-8.26) for dialysis, 1.69 (1.23-2.31) for coronary artery disease, and 2.08 (1.25-3.48) for heart failure compared with the good adherence/good glycemic control group. CONCLUSIONS: Poor medication adherence was an independent risk factor for the initiation of dialysis, suggesting that clinicians must pay close attention to these patients.

Impact of prior cerebrovascular disease and glucose status on incident cerebrovascular disease in Japanese.

BACKGROUND: Although both a history of cerebrovascular disease (CVD) and glucose abnormality are risk factors for CVD, few large studies have examined their association with subsequent CVD in the same cohort. Thus, we compared the impact of prior CVD, glucose status, and their combinations on subsequent CVD using real-world data. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study including 363,627 men aged 18-72 years followed for ≥ 3 years between 2008 and 2016. Participants were classified as normoglycemia, borderline glycemia, or diabetes defined by fasting plasma glucose, HbA1c, and antidiabetic drug prescription. Prior and subsequent CVD (i.e. ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, and non-traumatic intracerebral hemorrhage) were identified according to claims using ICD-10 codes, medical procedures, and questionnaires. RESULTS: Participants' mean age was 46.1 ± 9.3, and median follow up was 5.2 (4.2, 6.7) years. Cox regression analysis showed that prior CVD + conferred excess risk for CVD regardless of glucose status (normoglycemia: hazard ratio (HR), 8.77; 95% CI 6.96-11.05; borderline glycemia: HR, 7.40, 95% CI 5.97-9.17; diabetes: HR, 5.73, 95% CI 4.52-7.25). Compared with normoglycemia, borderline glycemia did not influence risk of CVD, whereas diabetes affected subsequent CVD in those with CVD- (HR, 1.50, 95% CI 1.34-1.68). In CVD-/diabetes, age, current smoking, systolic blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and HbA1c were associated with risk of CVD, but only systolic blood pressure was related to CVD risk in CVD + /diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Prior CVD had a greater impact on the risk of CVD than glucose tolerance and glycemic control. In participants with diabetes and prior CVD, systolic blood pressure was a stronger risk factor than HbA1c. Individualized treatment strategies should consider glucose tolerance status and prior CVD.

Associations of Systolic Blood Pressure and Diastolic Blood Pressure With the Incidence of Coronary Artery Disease or Cerebrovascular Disease According to Glucose Status.

OBJECTIVE: To determine associations of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) with new-onset coronary artery disease (CAD) or cerebrovascular disease (CVD) according to glucose status. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Examined was a nationwide claims database from 2008 to 2016 on 593,196 individuals. A Cox proportional hazards model identified risks of CAD and CVD events among five levels of SBP and DBP. RESULTS: During the study period 2,240 CAD and 3,207 CVD events occurred. Compared with SBP ≤119 mmHg, which was the lowest quintile of SBP, hazard ratios (95% CI) for CAD/CVD in the 4 higher quintiles (120-129, 130-139, 140-149, ≥150 mmHg) gradually increased from 2.10 (1.73-2.56)/1.46 (1.27-1.68) in quintile 2 to 3.21 (2.37-4.34)/4.76 (3.94-5.75) in quintile 5 for normoglycemia, from 1.39 (1.14-1.69)/1.70 (1.44-2.01) in quintile 2 to 2.52 (1.95-3.26)/4.12 (3.38-5.02) in quintile 5 for borderline glycemia, and from 1.50 (1.19-1.90)/1.72 (1.31-2.26) in quintile 2 to 2.52 (1.95-3.26)/3.54 (2.66-4.70) in quintile 5 for diabetes. A similar trend was observed for DBP across 4 quintiles (75-79, 80-84, 85-89, and ≥90 mmHg) compared with ≥74 mmHg, which was the lowest quintile. CONCLUSIONS: Results indicated that cardiovascular risks gradually increased with increases in SBP and DBP regardless of the presence of and degree of a glucose abnormality. Further interventional trials are required to apply findings from this cohort study to clinical practice.

Association of estimated plasma volume and weight loss after long-term administration and subsequent discontinuation of the sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor tofogliflozin.

Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2) are drugs that have been reported to have several effects through the regulation of plasma volume, for example, antihypertensive effects. This study aimed to clarify the impact of long-term administration and subsequent discontinuation of the SGLT2 inhibitor tofogliflozin on estimated plasma volume (ePV), brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and the relationship between changes in ePV, BNP and body weight (BW). Data from 157 participants with type 2 diabetes receiving tofogliflozin monotherapy in a phase 3 study were analysed. Changes in variables or correlations among them during a 52-week administration and a 2-week post-treatment period were investigated. Percent change in ePV was calculated using the Strauss formula. Significant decreases in BW, ePV and ln-transformed BNP (ln-BNP) were noted by week 52. %ΔBW was not significantly correlated with %ΔePV and Δln-BNP, while %ΔePV was significantly correlated with Δln-BNP. Two weeks after discontinuation of tofogliflozin, BW, ePV and ln-BNP were significantly increased. %ΔBW was significantly correlated with %ΔePV and Δln-BNP. Furthermore, ePV and BNP were significantly higher than baseline levels.

Accuracy of Japanese claims data in identifying diabetes-related complications.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the accuracy of various claims-based definitions of diabetes-related complications (coronary artery disease [CAD], heart failure, cerebrovascular disease and dialysis). METHODS: We evaluated data on 1379 inpatients who received care at the Niigata University Medical & Dental Hospital in September 2018. Manual electronic medical chart reviews were conducted for all patients with regard to diabetes-related complications and were used as the gold standard. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of each claims-based definition associated with diabetes-related complications based on Diagnosis Procedure Combination (DPC), International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) codes, procedure codes and medication codes were calculated. RESULTS: DPC-based definitions had higher sensitivity, specificity, and PPV than ICD-10 code definitions for CAD and cerebrovascular disease, with sensitivity of 0.963-1.000 and 0.905-0.952, specificity of 1.000 and 1.000, and PPV of 1.000 and 1.000, respectively. Sensitivity, specificity, and PPV were high using procedure codes for CAD and dialysis, with sensitivity of 0.963 and 1.000, specificity of 1.000 and 1.000, and PPV of 1.000 and 1.000, respectively. DPC and/or ICD-10 codes + medication were better for heart failure than the ICD-10 code definition, with sensitivity of 0.933, specificity of 1.000, and PPV of 1.000. The PPVs were lower than 60% for all diabetes-related complications using ICD-10 codes only. CONCLUSION: The DPC-based definitions for CAD and cerebrovascular disease, procedure codes for CAD and dialysis, and DPC or ICD-10 codes with medication codes for heart failure could accurately identify these diabetes-related complications from claims databases.

Ability of Current Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict and Detect Hypoglycemia in Patients With Diabetes Mellitus: Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Machine learning (ML) algorithms have been widely introduced to diabetes research including those for the identification of hypoglycemia. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this meta-analysis is to assess the current ability of ML algorithms to detect hypoglycemia (ie, alert to hypoglycemia coinciding with its symptoms) or predict hypoglycemia (ie, alert to hypoglycemia before its symptoms have occurred). METHODS: Electronic literature searches (from January 1, 1950, to September 14, 2020) were conducted using the Dialog platform that covers 96 databases of peer-reviewed literature. Included studies had to train the ML algorithm in order to build a model to detect or predict hypoglycemia and test its performance. The set of 2 × 2 data (ie, number of true positives, false positives, true negatives, and false negatives) was pooled with a hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic model. RESULTS: A total of 33 studies (14 studies for detecting hypoglycemia and 19 studies for predicting hypoglycemia) were eligible. For detection of hypoglycemia, pooled estimates (95% CI) of sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), and negative likelihood ratio (NLR) were 0.79 (0.75-0.83), 0.80 (0.64-0.91), 8.05 (4.79-13.51), and 0.18 (0.12-0.27), respectively. For prediction of hypoglycemia, pooled estimates (95% CI) were 0.80 (0.72-0.86) for sensitivity, 0.92 (0.87-0.96) for specificity, 10.42 (5.82-18.65) for PLR, and 0.22 (0.15-0.31) for NLR. CONCLUSIONS: Current ML algorithms have insufficient ability to detect ongoing hypoglycemia and considerate ability to predict impeding hypoglycemia in patients with diabetes mellitus using hypoglycemic drugs with regard to diagnostic tests in accordance with the Users' Guide to Medical Literature (PLR should be ≥5 and NLR should be ≤0.2 for moderate reliability). However, it should be emphasized that the clinical applicability of these ML algorithms should be evaluated according to patients' risk profiles such as for hypoglycemia and its associated complications (eg, arrhythmia, neuroglycopenia) as well as the average ability of the ML algorithms. Continued research is required to develop more accurate ML algorithms than those that currently exist and to enhance the feasibility of applying ML in clinical settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews CRD42020163682; http://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/display_record.php?ID=CRD42020163682.

Network Meta-Analysis of Drug Therapies for Lowering Uric Acid and Mortality Risk in Patients with Heart Failure.

PURPOSE: This network meta-analysis aimed to assess the current efficacy of decreasing the uric acid (UA) level with drugs to reduce mortality in patients with heart failure (HF). METHODS: Electronic literature searches using EMBASE and MEDLINE of studies published from 1 Jan 1950 to 26 Dec 2019 were conducted for randomized controlled trials or non-randomized cohort studies that included at least one group of patients who took UA-lowering drugs and with a study outcome of all-cause mortality. A random-effects network meta-analysis was performed within a frequentist framework. Hierarchy of treatments was expressed as the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) value, which is in proportion to mean rank (best is 100%). RESULTS: Nine studies, which included seven different types of groups, were eligible for analysis. The "untreated uricemia" group in which patients had hyperuricemia but without treatment had a significantly higher risk of mortality than the "no uricemia" group in which patients had no hyperuricemia (relative risk (RR)(95% confidence interval (CI), 1.43 (1.08-1.89)). The "start-allo" group wherein patients started to take allopurinol did not have a significantly lower risk of mortality than the "untreated uricemia" group (RR (95% CI), 0.68 (0.45-1.01)). However, in the "start-allo" group the SUCRA value was comparable to that in the "no uricemia" group (SUCRA: 65.4% for "start-allo"; 64.1% for "no uricemia"). CONCLUSIONS: Results suggested that allopurinol therapy was not associated with a significantly improved prognosis in terms of mortality but could potentially counteract the adverse effects associated with longstanding hyperuricemia in HF patients.

Skipping breakfast, late-night eating and current smoking are associated with medication adherence in Japanese patients with diabetes.

AIMS: Little is known about the relationship between medication adherence for oral hypoglycemic agents (OHAs) and glycemic control after adjusting healthy adherer effect in large scale study. Thus, adjusting for health-related behaviors, we investigated the clinical variables associated with medication adherence and the relationship between medication adherence and glycemic control using a large claims database. METHODS: Analyzed were 8805 patients with diabetes whose medication records for OHA were available for at least 1year. Medication adherence was evaluated by the proportion of days covered (PDC). Multivariate logistic regression model was used to identify clinical variables significantly associated with non-adherence. Multiple regression analysis evaluated the relationship between PDC and HbA1c after adjusting for health-related behaviors. RESULTS: Mean PDC was 80.1% and 32.8% of patients were non-adherence. Logistic analysis indicated that older age and taking concomitant medications were significantly associated with adherence while skipping breakfast (odds ratio 0.66 [95% CI 0.57-0.76]), late-night eating (0.86 [0.75-0.98]), and current smoking (0.89 [0.80-0.99]) were significantly associated with non-adherence. CONCLUSIONS: Skipping breakfast, late-night eating and current smoking were significantly associated with medication adherence, suggesting that clinicians pay attention to those health-related behaviors to achieve good medication adherence.

A case of normotensive incidentally discovered adrenal pheochromocytoma.

Pheochromocytomas are catecholamine-producing neuroendocrine tumors that arise from the adrenal medulla. The clinical presentation includes headache, palpitation, and hypertension, but pheochromocytomas are sometimes clinically silent. The present case highlights the importance of biochemical testing for pheochromocytoma in patients with adrenal incidentaloma, even if they are completely normotensive and asymptomatic.