Detecting groundwater level changes related to the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake.

This study presented the first attempt to detect precursory changes in groundwater level before the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake. This detection was achieved by accurately determining the relationship between long-term groundwater level fluctuation and crustal deformation over 16 years through analysis of groundwater level time-series data acquired at 17 sites within the study area. Here, we show that the observed groundwater levels were lower than the modelled levels in aquifers composed of porous strata (Togawa lava and part of the pre-Aso volcanic rocks), and that there were larger differences until 2014, which diminished until the occurrence of the Kumamoto Earthquake. The initial reduction in the modelled groundwater level and the latter recovery were most likely caused by crustal strain relaxation associated with the large 2011 earthquake off the Pacific coast of Tohoku (Mw 9.0) and the strain accumulation prior to the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake.

Probabilistic risk assessment of solar particle events considering the cost of countermeasures to reduce the aviation radiation dose.

Cosmic-ray exposure to flight crews and passengers, which is called aviation radiation exposure, is an important topic in radiological protection, particularly for solar energetic particles (SEP). We therefore assessed the risks associated with the countermeasure costs to reduce SEP doses and dose rates for eight flight routes during five ground level enhancements (GLE). A four-dimensional dose-rate database developed by the Warning System for Aviation Exposure to Solar Energetic Particles, WASAVIES, was employed in the SEP dose evaluation. As for the cost estimation, we considered two countermeasures; one is the cancellation of the flight, and the other is the reduction of flight altitudes. Then, we estimated the annual occurrence frequency of significant GLE events that would bring the maximum flight route dose and dose rate over 1.0 mSv and 80 µSv/h, respectively, based on past records of GLE as well as historically large events observed by the cosmogenic nuclide concentrations in tree rings and ice cores. Our calculations suggest that GLE events of a magnitude sufficient to exceed the above dose and dose rate thresholds, requiring a change in flight conditions, occur once every 47 and 17 years, respectively, and their conservatively-estimated annual risks associated with the countermeasure costs are up to around 1.5 thousand USD in the cases of daily-operated long-distance flights.

Dataset on the 6-year radiocesium transport in rivers near Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

Radiocesium released from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FDNPP) and deposited in the terrestrial environment has been transported to the sea through rivers. To study the long-term effect of riverine transport on the remediation process near the FDNPP, a monitoring project was initiated by the University of Tsukuba. It was commissioned by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology, and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in June 2011, and was taken over by the Fukushima Prefectural Centre for Environmental Creation from April 2015. The activity concentration and monthly flux of radiocesium in a suspended form were measured in the project. This provides valuable measurement data to evaluate the impact of the accidentally released radiocesium on residents and the marine environment. It can also be used as verification data in the development and testing of numerical models to predict future impacts.

A Study on the Reduction in Hydration Heat and Thermal Strain of Concrete with Addition of Sugarcane Bagasse Fiber.

Early prevention methods in massive concrete structures to control the heat of hydration and, consequently, the development of cracks due to thermal expansion are important subjects, since these cracks may compromise structural integrity. In the present study, the sugarcane residues in massive concrete were used in order to investigate the reduction in the heat of hydration, the thermal expansion resistance, and also the fresh and mechanical properties of the concrete. The results showed that, by adding 2.0% of bagasse fiber and 5.0% of pozzolanic material to the concrete, the heat of hydration was reduced, and the strain due to the thermal expansion was smaller than the control mixture. Moreover, the compressive, flexural, and split tensile strength increased in comparison to the control mixture.

Transport and Redistribution of Radiocesium in Fukushima Fallout through Rivers.

The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident released the most significant quantity of radiocesium into the environment since Chernobyl, and detailed measurements over the initial 5 years provide new insights into fluvial redistribution of radiocesium. We found that the high initial activity concentration of 137Cs-bearing suspended sediment in rivers was followed by a steep exponential decline (λ1) which extended to approximately 1 year after the accident, while the rate of initial decline in radiocesium activity concentration in water was an order of magnitude higher than rates measured after Chernobyl. Fluvial transport of 137Cs to the ocean from the Abukuma river totaled 12 TBq between June 2011 and August 2015 and almost all this radiocesium (96.5%) was transported in the particulate form. The primary sources of 137Cs were paddy fields, farmland, and urban areas [plaque-forming unit (PFU)], discharging 85% of the exported 137Cs from 38% of the watershed area. After 1 year, activity concentrations were lower and exhibited a more gradual secondary decline (λ2) which was associated with reduced radiocesium losses from PFU areas, while forest areas continue to represent more stable contaminant stores.

Spatial pattern of plutonium and radiocaesium contamination released during the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant disaster.

Plutonium and radiocaesium are hazardous contaminants released by the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FDNPP) disaster and their distribution in the environment requires careful characterisation using isotopic information. Comprehensive spatial survey of 134Cs and 137Cs has been conducted on a regular basis since the accident, but the dataset for 135Cs/137Cs atom ratios and trace isotopic analysis of Pu remains limited because of analytical challenges. We have developed a combined chemical procedure to separate Pu and Cs for isotopic analysis of environmental samples from contaminated catchments. Ultra-trace analyses reveal a FDNPP Pu signature in environmental samples, some from further afield than previously reported. For two samples, we attribute the dominant source of Pu to Reactor Unit 3. We review the mechanisms responsible for an emergent spatial pattern in 134,135Cs/137Cs in areas northwest (high 134Cs/137Cs, low 135Cs/137Cs) and southwest (low 134Cs/137Cs, high 135Cs/137Cs) of FDNPP. Several samples exhibit consistent 134,135Cs/137Cs values that are significantly different from those deposited on plant specimens collected in previous works. A complex spatial pattern of Pu and Cs isotopic signature is apparent. To confidently attribute the sources of mixed fallout material, future studies must focus on analysis of individual FDNPP-derived particles.

Modeling and identifying the sources of radiocesium contamination in separate sewerage systems.

The Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident released radiocesium in large amounts. The released radionuclides contaminated much of the surrounding environment, including sewers in urban areas of Fukushima prefecture. In this study we attempted to identify and quantify the sources of radiocesium contamination in separate sewerage systems and developed a compartment model based on the Radionuclide Migration in Urban Environments and Drainage Systems (MUD) model. Measurements of the time-dependent radiocesium concentration in sewer sludge combined with meteorological, demographic, and radiocesium dietary intake data indicated that rainfall-derived inflow and infiltration (RDII) and human excretion were the chief contributors of radiocesium contamination in a separate sewerage system. The quantities of contamination derived from RDII and human excretion were calculated and used in the modified MUD model to simulate radiocesium contamination in sewers in three urban areas in Fukushima prefecture: Fukushima, Koriyama, and Nihonmatsu Cities. The Nash efficiency coefficient (0.88-0.92) and determination coefficient (0.89-0.93) calculated in an evaluation of our compartment model indicated that the model produced satisfactory results. We also used the model to estimate the total volume of sludge with radiocesium concentrations in excess of the clearance level, based on the number of months elapsed after the accident. Estimations by our model suggested that wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in Fukushima, Koriyama, and Nihonmatsu generated about 1,750,000m3 of radioactive sludge in total, a level in good agreement with the real data.

Spatiotemporal distribution and fluctuation of radiocesium in Tokyo Bay in the five years following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident.

A monitoring survey was conducted from August 2011 to July 2016 of the spatiotemporal distribution in the 400 km2 area of the northern part of Tokyo Bay and in rivers flowing into it of radiocesium released from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident. The average inventory in the river mouth (10 km2) was 131 kBq⋅m-2 and 0.73 kBq⋅m-2 in the central bay (330 km2) as the decay corrected value on March 16, 2011. Most of the radiocesium that flowed into Tokyo Bay originated in the northeastern section of the Tokyo metropolitan area, where the highest precipitation zone of 137Cs in soil was almost the same level as that in Fukushima City, then flowed into and was deposited in the Old-Edogawa River estuary, deep in Tokyo Bay. The highest precipitation of radiocesium measured in the high contaminated zone was 460 kBq⋅m-2. The inventory in sediment off the estuary of Old-Edogawa was 20.1 kBq⋅m-2 in August 2011 immediately after the accident, but it increased to 104 kBq⋅m-2 in July 2016. However, the radiocesium diffused minimally in sediments in the central area of Tokyo Bay in the five years following the FDNPP accident. The flux of radiocesium off the estuary decreased slightly immediately after the accident and conformed almost exactly to the values predicted based on its radioactive decay. Contrarily, the inventory of radiocesium in the sediment has increased. It was estimated that of the 8.33 TBq precipitated from the atmosphere in the catchment regions of the rivers Edogawa and Old-Edogawa, 1.31 TBq migrated through rivers and was deposited in the sediments of the Old-Edogawa estuary by July 2016. Currently, 0.25 TBq⋅yr-1 of radiocesium continues to flow into the deep parts of Tokyo Bay.

Future projection of radiocesium flux to the ocean from the largest river impacted by Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.

Following the initial fall out from Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP), a significant amount of radiocesium has been discharged from Abukuma River into the Pacific Ocean. This study attempted to numerically simulate the flux of radiocesium into Abukuma River by developing the multiple compartment model which incorporate the transport process of the radionuclide from the ground surface of the catchment area into the river, a process called wash off. The results from the model show that the sub-basins with a high percentage of forest area release the radionuclides at lower rate compared to the other sub-basins. In addition the results show that the model could predict the seasonal pattern of the observed data. Despite the overestimation observed between the modeled data and the observed data, the values of R(2) obtained from (137)Cs and (134)Cs of 0.98 and 0.97 respectively demonstrate the accuracy of the model. Prediction of the discharge from the basin area for 100 years after the accident shows that, the flux of radiocesium into the Pacific Ocean is still relatively high with an order of magnitude of 10(9) bq.month(-1) while the total accumulation of the discharge is 111 TBq for (137)Cs and 44 TBq for (134)Cs.

Initial flux of sediment-associated radiocesium to the ocean from the largest river impacted by Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.

This study aimed to quantify the flux of radiocesium in the Abukuma Basin (5,172 km(2)), the largest river system affected by fallout from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) event. In the period from 10 August 2011 to 11 May 2012 an estimated 84 to 92% of the total radiocesium transported in the basin's fluvial system was carried in particulate form. During this monitoring period Typhoon Roke (September 2011) was observed to induce a significant and temporally punctuated redistribution of radiocesium. The storm-mobilised radiocesium was an estimated 6.18 Terabecquerels corresponding to 61.4% of the total load delivered to the coastal zone during the observation period. The total flux of radiocesium into the Pacific Ocean estimated at the outlet station (basin area 5,172 km(2)) was 5.34 TBq for (137)Cs, and 4.74 TBq for (134)Cs, corresponding to 1.13% of the total estimated radiocesium fallout over the basin catchment (890 TBq). This was equivalent to the estimated amount of direct leakage from FDNPP to the ocean during June 2011 to September 2012 of 17 TBq and the Level 3 Scale Leakage on 21 August 2013 (24 TBq).

Spatial and temporal trends in estimates of nutrient and suspended sediment loads in the Ishikari River, Japan, 1985 to 2010.

Nutrients and suspended sediment in surface water play important roles in aquatic ecosystems and contribute strongly to water quality with implication for drinking water resources, human and environmental health. Estimating loads of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) and suspended sediment (SS) is complicated because of infrequent monitoring data, retransformation bias, data censoring, and non-normality. To obtain reliable unbiased estimates, the Maintenance of Variance-Extension type 3 (MOVE. 3) and the regression model Load Estimator (LOADEST) were applied to develop regression equations and to estimate total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and SS loads at five sites on the Ishikari River, Japan, from 1985 to 2010. Coefficients of determination (R(2)) for the best-fit regression models for loads of TN, TP, and SS for the five sites ranged from 71.86% to 90.94%, suggesting the model for all three constituents successfully simulated the variability in constituent loads at all studied sites. Estimated monthly average loads at Yishikarikakou-bashi were larger than at the other sites, with TN, TP, and SS loads ranging from 8.52×10(3) to 2.00×10(5) kg/day (Apr. 1999), 3.96×10(2) to 5.23×10(4) kg/ day (Apr. 1999), and 9.21×10(4) to 9.25×10(7) kg/day (Sep. 2001), respectively. Because of variation in river discharge, the estimated seasonal loads fluctuated widely over the period 1985 to 2010, with the greatest loads occurring in spring and the smallest loads occurring in winter. Estimated loads of TN, TP, and especially SS showed decreasing trends during the study period. Accurate load estimation is a necessary goal of water quality monitoring efforts and the methods described here provide essential information for effectively managing water resources.

Spatiotemporal evaluation of water quality incidents in Japan between 1996 and 2007.

We present a spatiotemporal evaluation of water quality incidents in Japan considering incident numbers, incident causes, pollutant categories, and pollution effects. Water pollution incidents in first-class river systems almost tripled to about 1487 in the 12 years from 1996 to 2007. In addition, oil makes up the largest proportion of pollutants nationwide (76.61%) and the major source of pollution for each region in Japan. Moreover, every category shows a growth trend, especially since 2005. The main cause of incidents was "Unknown" (43%), followed by "Poor working practice" (24%), and then by "Accident" (10%) and "Other" (10%). In Hokuriku, however, the main cause of incidents was "Poor working practice" (36%), which is greater than "Unknown" (30%). Finally, waterworks (approximately 60%) was the largest of four kinds of water supply infrastructure affected by pollution incidents, followed by simplified waterworks. The population affected by offensive odors and tastes peaked in 1990 and has been decreasing. Overall, the results show the characteristics of incidents from 1996 to 2007, with significant implications for adaptation measures, strategies and policies to reduce water quality incidents.

Spatiotemporal trend analysis of recent river water quality conditions in Japan.

In order to promote pollutant monitoring and preservation of water resources, we evaluate the spatiotemporal trends in recent water quality conditions in Japanese rivers. Trend analysis is conducted on the 92 major rivers in Japan using the available water quality data recorded from 1992 to 2005 and the characteristics of major pollutants in these rivers are analyzed. Spatial and temporal analysis of trends for six water quality indicators is conducted using the Mann Kendall test, a non-parametric statistical method. The indicators analyzed are biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), dissolved oxygen (DO), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and pH. The majority of sampling locations monitoring BOD, COD, TN and TP show trends toward decreasing concentrations over time. Many sampling locations show increasing DO concentrations. Our results show that water quality in Japanese rivers has improved dramatically over the past decade, although there are still problems in some places, most notably in the Hokkaido, Kanto, Kinki and Kyushu regions. The improvements seen in water quality appear to be the result of improved wastewater treatment and other water quality improvement efforts achieved through government initiative.

Assessment of global nitrogen pollution in rivers using an integrated biogeochemical modeling framework.

This study has analyzed the global nitrogen loading of rivers resulting from atmospheric deposition, direct discharge, and nitrogenous compounds generated by residential, industrial, and agricultural sources. Fertilizer use, population distribution, land cover, and social census data were used in this study. A terrestrial nitrogen cycle model with a 24-h time step and 0.5° spatial resolution was developed to estimate nitrogen leaching from soil layers in farmlands, grasslands, and natural lands. The N-cycle in this model includes the major processes of nitrogen fixation, nitrification, denitrification, immobilization, mineralization, leaching, and nitrogen absorption by vegetation. The previously developed Total Runoff Integrating Pathways network was used to analyze nitrogen transport from natural and anthropogenic sources through river channels, as well as the collecting and routing of nitrogen to river mouths by runoff. Model performance was evaluated through nutrient data measured at 61 locations in several major world river basins. The dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations calculated by the model agreed well with the observed data and demonstrate the reliability of the proposed model. The results indicate that nitrogen loading in most global rivers is proportional to the size of the river basin. Reduced nitrate leaching was predicted for basins with low population density, such as those at high latitudes or in arid regions. Nitrate concentration becomes especially high in tropical humid river basins, densely populated basins, and basins with extensive agricultural activity. On a global scale, agriculture has a significant impact on the distribution of nitrogenous compound pollution. The map of nitrate distribution indicates that serious nitrogen pollution (nitrate concentration: 10-50 mg N/L) has occurred in areas with significant agricultural activities and small precipitation surpluses. Analysis of the model uncertainty also suggests that the nitrate export in most rivers is sensitive to the amount of nitrogen leaching from agricultural lands.