Forecasting COVID-19 cases based on a parameter-varying stochastic SIR model.

We address the prediction of the number of new cases and deaths for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) over a future horizon from historical data (forecasting). We use a model-based approach based on a stochastic Susceptible-Infections-Removed (SIR) model with time-varying parameters, which captures the evolution of the disease dynamics in response to changes in social behavior, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and testing rates. We show that, in the presence of asymptomatic cases, such model includes internal parameters and states that cannot be uniquely identified solely on the basis of measurements of new cases and deaths, but this does not preclude the construction of reliable forecasts for future values of these measurements. Such forecasts and associated confidence intervals can be computed using an iterative algorithm based on nonlinear optimization solvers, without the need for Monte Carlo sampling. Our results have been validated on an extensive COVID-19 dataset covering the period from March through December 2020 on 144 regions around the globe.

Co-crystal Structure of Thermosynechococcus elongatus Sucrose Phosphate Synthase With UDP and Sucrose-6-Phosphate Provides Insight Into Its Mechanism of Action Involving an Oxocarbenium Ion and the Glycosidic Bond.

In green species, sucrose can help antagonize abiotic stress. Sucrose phosphate synthase (SPS) is a well-known rate-limiting enzyme in the synthesis of sucrose. To date, however, there is no known crystal structure of SPS from plant or cyanobacteria. In this study, we report the first co-crystal structure of SPS from Thermosynechococcus elongatus with UDP and sucrose-6-phosphate (S6P). Within the catalytic site, the side chains of His158 and Glu331, along with two phosphate groups from UDP, form hydrogen bonds with the four hydroxyl groups of the glucose moiety in S6P. This association causes these four hydroxyl groups to become partially negatively charged, thus promoting formation of the C1 oxocarbenium ion. Breakage of the hydrogen bond between His158 and one of the hydroxyl groups may trigger covalent bond formation between the C1 oxocarbenium ion and the C2 hydroxyl of fructose-6-phosphate. Consistent with our structural model, we observed that two SPS mutants, H158A and E331A, lost all catalytic activity. Moreover, electron density of residues from two loops (loop1 and loop2) in the SPS A-domain was not observed, suggest their dynamic nature. B-factor analysis and molecular dynamics stimulations of the full-length enzyme and A-domain indicate that both loops are crucial for binding and release of substrate and product. In addition, temperature gradient analysis shows that SPS exhibits its highest activity at 70°C, suggesting that this enzyme has the potential of being used in industrial production of S6P.

Expression and characterization of a novel glycoside hydrolase family 46 chitosanase identified from marine mud metagenome.

A novel chitosanase gene, csn4, was identified through function-based screening of a marine mud metagenomic library. The encoded protein, named CSN4, which belonged to glycoside hydrolase family 46, showed its maximum identity (79%) with Methylobacter tundripaludum peptidoglycan-binding protein. CSN4 was expressed in Escherichia coli and purified. It displayed maximal activity at 30 °C and pH 7. A weakly-alkaline solution strongly inhibited the activity. The enzymatic activity was enhanced by addition of Mn2+ or Co2+. CSN4 exhibited strict substrate specificity for chitosan, and the activity was enhanced by increasing the degree of deacetylation. Thin-layer chromatography and electrospray ionization-mass spectrometry showed that CSN4 displayed an endo-type cleavage pattern, hydrolyzing chitosan mainly into (GlcN)2, (GlcN)3 and (GlcN)4. The novel characteristics of the chitosanase CSN4 make it a potential candidate to produce chitooligosaccharides from chitosan in industry.

Characterization of a novel glycoside hydrolase family 46 chitosanase, Csn-BAC, from Bacillus sp. MD-5.

Chitosanases play an important role in chitosan degradation, and the enzymatic degradation products of chitosan show various biological activities. Here, a novel glycoside hydrolase family 46 chitosanase (named Csn-BAC) from Bacillus sp. MD-5 was heterologously expressed in Escherichia coli BL21 (DE3). The recombinant enzyme was purified by Ni-NTA affinity chromatography, and its molecular weight was estimated to be 35 kDa by SDS-PAGE. Csn-BAC showed maximal activity toward colloidal chitosan at pH 7 and 40 °C. The enzymatic activity of Csn-BAC was enhanced by Mn2+, Cu2+ and Co2+ at 1 mM, and by Mn2+ at 5 mM. Thin-layer chromatography and electrospray ionization-mass spectrometry results demonstrated that Csn-BAC exhibited an endo-type cleavage pattern and hydrolyzed chitosan to yield, mainly, (GlcN)2 and (GlcN)3. The enzymatic properties of this chitosanase may make it a good candidate for use in oligosaccharide production-based industries.

Crystal Structures of Pyrophosphatase from Acinetobacter baumannii: Snapshots of Pyrophosphate Binding and Identification of a Phosphorylated Enzyme Intermediate.

All living things have pyrophosphatases that hydrolyze pyrophosphate and release energy. This energetically favorable reaction drives many energetically unfavorable reactions. An accepted catalytic model of pyrophosphatase shows that a water molecule activated by two divalent cations (M1 and M2) within the catalytic center can attack pyrophosphate in an SN2 mechanism and thus hydrolyze the molecule. However, our co-crystal structure of Acinetobacter baumannii pyrophosphatase with pyrophosphate shows that a water molecule from the solvent may, in fact, be the actual catalytic water. In the co-crystal structure of the wild-type pyrophosphatase with pyrophosphate, the electron density of the catalytic centers of each monomer are different from one another. This indicates that pyrophosphates in the catalytic center are dynamic. Our mass spectroscopy results have identified a highly conserved lysine residue (Lys30) in the catalytic center that is phosphorylated, indicating that the enzyme could form a phosphoryl enzyme intermediate during hydrolysis. Mutation of Lys30 to Arg abolished the activity of the enzyme. In the structure of the apo wild type enzyme, we observed that a Na+ ion is coordinated by residues within a loop proximal to the catalytic center. Therefore, we mutated three key residues within the loop (K143R, P147G, and K149R) and determined Na+ and K+-induced inhibition on their activities. Compared to the wild type enzyme, P147G is most sensitive to these cations, whereas K143R was inactive and K149R showed no change in activity. These data indicate that monovalent cations could play a role in down-regulating pyrophosphatase activity in vivo. Overall, our results reveal new aspects of pyrophosphatase catalysis and could assist in the design of specific inhibitors of Acinetobacter baumannii growth.