An intelligent interval forecasting system based on fuzzy time series and error distribution characteristics for air quality index.

Due to the emergency environment pollution problems, it is imperative to understand the air quality and take effective measures for environmental governance. As a representative measure, the air quality index (AQI) is a single conceptual index value simplified by the concentrations of several routinely monitored air pollutants according to the proportion of various components in the air. With the gradual enhancement of awareness of environmental protection, air quality index forecasting is a key point of environment management. However, most of the traditional forecasting methods ignore the fuzziness of original data itself and the uncertainty of forecasting results which causes the unsatisfactory results. Thus, an innovative forecasting system combining data preprocessing technique, kernel fuzzy c-means (KFCM) clustering algorithm and fuzzy time series is successfully developed for air quality index forecasting. Concretely, the fuzzy time series that handle the fuzzy set is used for the main forecasting process. Then the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition and KFCM are respectively developed for data denoising and interval partition. Furthermore, the interval forecasting method based on error distribution is developed to measure the forecasting uncertainty. Finally, the experimental simulation and evaluation system verify the great performance of proposed forecasting system and the promising applicability in a practical environment early warning system.

A novel assessment and forecasting system for traffic accident economic loss caused by air pollution.

Air pollution greatly reduces the visibility of the air, leading to frequent traffic accidents (TA), and the resulting economic losses cannot be ignored. In order to better control and mitigate the traffic accident economic losses of air pollution, this paper proposes a novel assessment and forecasting system for TA economic loss of air pollution, which contains assessment module and forecasting module. In the assessment module, a reasonable assessment of TA economic loss is provided which also analyzes the efficiency of air pollution control based on data envelope analysis directional distance function. In the forecasting module, this system develops a rolling nonlinear optimized initial self-adapting grey model based on multi-objective optimization algorithm to forecast the TA economic loss of air pollution. The results from the proposed system indicate that the proposed system has outstanding performance which can provide great information assistant for a decision-maker.

Intelligent multivariable air-quality forecasting system based on feature selection and modified evolving interval type-2 quantum fuzzy neural network.

Owing to the high nonlinearity and noise in the air quality index (AQI), tackling the uncertainties and fuzziness in the forecasting process is still a prevalent problem. Therefore, this study developed an intelligent hybrid air-quality forecasting system based on feature selection and a modified evolving interval type-2 quantum fuzzy neural network (eIT2QFNN), which provides accurate air-quality forecasting information by considering climate influencing factors. The main contributions of this study are as follows. The optimal input structure of the model is determined by the proposed second-stage feature-selection model, which can better extract the influencing variables and remove redundant information. Moreover, a novel multi-objective chaotic Bonobo optimizer algorithm is proposed to improve the eIT2QFNN. The modified eIT2QFNN implements AQI prediction by considering the importance of influencing variables that can cope with the uncertainties and fuzziness in the forecasting process. Finally, the Diebold-Mariano and modified Diebold-Mariano tests are employed to evaluate the performance of the proposed system. The experimental results demonstrate that our proposed system significantly improves the modeling performance in terms of high accuracy and compact structure, and can thus serve as an effective tool for air-quality management.