ABSTRACT
K-Maryblyt has been developed for the effective control of secondary fire blight infections on blossoms and the elimination of primary inoculum sources from cankers and newly emerged shoots early in the season for both apple and pear trees. This model facilitates the precise determination of the blossom infection timing and identification of primary inoculum sources, akin to Maryblyt, predicting flower infections and the appearance of symptoms on various plant parts, including cankers, blossoms, and shoots. Nevertheless, K-Maryblyt has undergone significant improvements: Integration of Phenology Models for both apple and pear trees, Adoption of observed or predicted hourly temperatures for Epiphytic Infection Potential (EIP) calculation, incorporation of adjusted equations resulting in reduced mean error with 10.08 degree-hours (DH) for apple and 9.28 DH for pear, introduction of a relative humidity variable for pear EIP calculation, and adaptation of modified degree-day calculation methods for expected symptoms. Since the transition to a model-based control policy in 2022, the system has disseminated 158,440 messages related to blossom control and symptom prediction to farmers and professional managers in its inaugural year. Furthermore, the system has been refined to include control messages that account for the mechanism of action of pesticides distributed to farmers in specific counties, considering flower opening conditions and weather suitability for spraying. Operating as a pivotal module within the Fire Blight Forecasting Information System (FBcastS), K-Maryblyt plays a crucial role in providing essential fire blight information to farmers, professional managers, and policymakers.
