Multiple impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and antimicrobial stewardship on antimicrobial resistance in nosocomial infections: an interrupted time series analysis.

Objectives: The emergency response to the COVID-19 pandemic may disrupt hospital management activities of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). This study aimed to determine the changing AMR trend over the period in China when stringent COVID-19 response measures were implemented. Methods: This retrospective study was conducted in a designated hospital for COVID-19 patients in Guangzhou, China from April 2018 to September 2021. The prevalence of 13 antimicrobial-resistant bacteria was compared before and after the COVID-19 responses through Chi-square tests. Interrupted time series (ITS) models on the weekly prevalence of AMR were established to determine the changing trend. Controlled ITS models were performed to compare the differences between subgroups. Results: A total of 10,134 isolates over 1,265 days were collected. And antimicrobial-resistant strains presented in 38.6% of the testing isolates. The weekly AMR prevalence decreased by 0.29 percentage point (95% CI [0.05-0.80]) after antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) policy, despite an increase in the prevalence of penicillin-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae (from 0/43 to 15/43, p < 0.001), carbapenem-resistant Escherichia coli (from 20/1254 to 41/1184, p = 0.005), and carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (from 93/889 to 114/828, p = 0.042). And the changing trend did not vary by gender (male vs. female), age (<65 vs. ≥65 years), service setting (outpatient vs. inpatient), care unit (ICU vs. non-ICU), the primary site of infection (Lung vs. others), and Gram type of bacteria (positive vs. negative). Conclusion: The response to COVID-19 did not lead to an increase in overall AMR; however, it appears that management strategy on the prudent use of antimicrobials likely contributed to a sizable long-term drop. The frequency of several multidrug-resistant bacteria continues to increase after the COVID-19 epidemic. It is crucial to continue to monitor AMR when COVID-19 cases have surged in China after the relaxation of restriction measures.

Prediction models for diagnosis and prognosis of the colonization or infection of multidrug-resistant organisms in adults: a systematic review, critical appraisal, and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Prediction models help to target patients at risk of multidrug-resistant organism (MDRO) colonization or infection and could serve as tools informing clinical practices to prevent MDRO transmission and inappropriate empiric antibiotic therapy. However, there is limited evidence to identify which among the available models are of low risk of bias and suitable for clinical application. OBJECTIVES: To identify, describe, appraise, and summarise the performance of all prognostic and diagnostic models developed or validated for predicting MDRO colonization or infection. DATA SOURCES: Six electronic literature databases and clinical registration databases were searched until April 2022. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Development and validation studies of any multivariable prognostic and diagnostic models to predict MDRO colonization or infection in adults. PARTICIPANTS: Adults (≥ 18 years old) without MDRO colonization or infection (in prognostic models) or with unknown or suspected MDRO colonization or infection (in diagnostic models). ASSESSMENT OF RISK OF BIAS: The Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool was used to assess the risk of bias. Evidence certainty was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation approach. METHODS OF DATA SYNTHESIS: Meta-analyses were conducted to summarize the discrimination and calibration of the models' external validations conducted in at least two non-overlapping datasets. RESULTS: We included 162 models (108 studies) developed for diagnosing (n = 135) and predicting (n = 27) MDRO colonization or infection. Models exhibited a high-risk of bias, especially in statistical analysis. High-frequency predictors were age, recent invasive procedures, antibiotic usage, and prior hospitalization. Less than 25% of the models underwent external validations, with only seven by independent teams. Meta-analyses for one diagnostic and two prognostic models only produced very low to low certainty of evidence. CONCLUSIONS: The review comprehensively described the models for identifying patients at risk of MDRO colonization or infection. We cannot recommend which models are ready for application because of the high-risk of bias, limited validations, and low certainty of evidence from meta-analyses, indicating a clear need to improve the conducting and reporting of model development and external validation studies to facilitate clinical application.

Effects of pay-for-performance based antimicrobial stewardship on antimicrobial consumption and expenditure: An interrupted time series analysis.

Objectives: To evaluate the impact of pay-for-performance on antimicrobial consumption and antimicrobial expenditure in a large teaching hospital in Guangzhou, China. Methods: We collected data from hospital information system from January 2018 through September 2022 in the inpatient wards. Antimicrobial consumption was evaluated using antibiotic use density (AUD) and antibiotic use rate (AUR). The economic impact of intervention was assessed by antimicrobial expenditure percentage. The data was analyzed using interrupted time series (ITS) analysis. Results: Following the implementation of the intervention, immediate decreases in the level of AUD were observed in Department of Hematology Unit 3 (ß = -66.93 DDDs/100PD, P = 0.002), Urology (ß = -32.80 DDDs/100PD, P < 0.001), Gastrointestinal Surgery Unit 3 (ß = -11.44 DDDs/100PD, P = 0.03), Cardiac Surgery (ß = -14.30 DDDs/100PD, P = 0.01), ICU, Unit 2 (ß = -81.91 DDDs/100PD, P = 0.02) and Cardiothoracic Surgery ICU (ß = -41.52 DDDs/100PD, P = 0.05). Long-term downward trends in AUD were also identified in Organ Transplant Unit (ß = -1.64 DDDs/100PD, P = 0.02). However, only Urology (ß = -6.56 DDDs/100PD, P = 0.02) and Gastrointestinal Surgery Unit 3 (ß = -8.50 %, P = 0.01) showed an immediate decrease in AUR, and long-term downward trends in AUR were observed in Pediatric ICU (ß = -1.88 %, P = 0.05) and ICU Unit 1 (ß = -0.55 %, P = 0.02). Conclusion: This study demonstrates that the adoption of pay-for-performance effectively reduces antibiotic consumption in specific departments of a hospital in Guangzhou in the short term. However, it is important to recognize that the long-term impact of such interventions is often limited. Additionally, it should be noted that the overall effectiveness of the intervention across the entire hospital was not significant.

Global antimicrobial resistance and antibiotic use in COVID-19 patients within health facilities: A systematic review and meta-analysis of aggregated participant data.

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a significant threat to the global healthcare system, presenting a major challenge to antimicrobial stewardship worldwide. This study aimed to provide a comprehensive and up-to-date picture of global antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and antibiotic use in COVID-19 patients. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review to determine the prevalence of AMR and antibiotic usage among COVID-19 patients receiving treatment in healthcare facilities. Our search encompassed the PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Scopus databases, spanning studies published from December 2019 to May 2023. We utilized random-effects meta-analysis to assess the prevalence of multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) and antibiotic use in COVID-19 patients, aligning with both the WHO's priority list of MDROs and the AWaRe list of antibiotic products. Estimates were stratified by region, country, and country income. Meta-regression models were established to identify predictors of MDRO prevalence and antibiotic use in COVID-19 patients. The study protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD 42023449396). RESULTS: Among the 11,050 studies screened, 173 were included in the review, encompassing a total of 892,312 COVID-19 patients. MDROs were observed in 42.9% (95% CI 31.1-54.5%, I2 = 99.90%) of COVID-19 patients: 41.0% (95% CI 35.5-46.6%) for carbapenem-resistant organisms (CRO), 19.9% (95% CI 13.4-27.2%) for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), 24.9% (95% CI 16.7-34.1%) for extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing organisms (ESBL), and 22.9% (95% CI 13.0-34.5%) for vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus species (VRE), respectively. Overall, 76.2% (95% CI 69.5-82.9%, I2 = 99.99%) of COVID-19 patients were treated with antibiotics: 29.6% (95% CI 26.0-33.4%) with "Watch" antibiotics, 22.4% (95% CI 18.0-26.7%) with "Reserve" antibiotics, and 16.5% (95% CI 13.3-19.7%) with "Access" antibiotics. The MDRO prevalence and antibiotic use were significantly higher in low- and middle-income countries than in high-income countries, with the lowest proportion of antibiotic use (60.1% (95% CI 52.1-68.0%)) and MDRO prevalence (29.1% (95% CI 21.8-36.4%)) in North America, the highest MDRO prevalence in the Middle East and North Africa (63.9% (95% CI 46.6-81.2%)), and the highest proportion of antibiotic use in South Asia (92.7% (95% CI 90.4-95.0%)). The meta-regression identified antibiotic use and ICU admission as a significant predictor of higher prevalence of MDROs in COVID-19 patients. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review offers a comprehensive and current assessment of MDRO prevalence and antibiotic use among COVID-19 patients in healthcare facilities. It underscores the formidable challenge facing global efforts to prevent and control AMR amidst the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings serve as a crucial warning to policymakers, highlighting the urgent need to enhance antimicrobial stewardship strategies to mitigate the risks associated with future pandemics.

Effects of the Implementation of Transport-Driven Poverty Alleviation Policy on Health Care-Seeking Behavior and Medical Expenditure Among Older People in Rural Areas: Quasi-Experimental Study.

BACKGROUND: Improving the rural residents' accessibility to and affordability of health care is recognized as a common target globally. The Health in All Policies approach, from the Declaration of Helsinki to the United Nations' Decade Of Healthy Ageing, strengthened the far-reaching effect of large-scale public policies on health care-seeking behavior; however, the effects of national transport policy on health care-seeking behavior is unclear. OBJECTIVE: This quasi-experimental study aimed to examine the effects of the implementation of transport-driven poverty alleviation (TPA) policy on health care-seeking behavior and medical expenditure among older adults in rural areas and the mechanism underlying these effects. METHODS: We designed a quasi-experiment to estimate the effects of TPA policy implementation on health care-seeking behavior and medical expenditure among older adults in rural areas through a difference-in-differences (DID) analysis based on data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2011, 2013, 2015, and 2018. The underlying mechanism was analyzed and effect modification patterns were further investigated by poor households, health status, and age. RESULTS: Our findings validated a positive contribution of TPA policy on health care-seeking behavior among older adults in rural areas. After the implementation of TPA policy, the number of inpatient visits increased by annually 0.35 times per person, outpatient medical expenditure increased by 192% per month, and inpatient medical expenditure increased by 57% annually compared with those of older adults in rural areas without the implementation of TPA policy. Further, there was a significant modification effect, with a positive effect among poor households, healthier older adults, and those aged 60-80 years. Additionally, the policy improved the patients' capabilities to seek long-distance care (ß=23.16, 95% CI -0.99 to 45.31) and high-level hospitals (ß=.08, 95% CI -0.02 to 0.13), and increased individual income to acquire more medical services (ß=4.57, 95% CI -4.46 to 4.68). CONCLUSIONS: These findings validate the positive contribution of TPA policy on health care-seeking behavior among older adults in rural areas; however, the medical expenditure incurred was also high. Concerted efforts are needed to address health care-seeking dilemmas in rural areas, and attention must be paid to curbing medical expenditure growth for older adults in rural areas during TPA policy implementation.

The association between ambient temperature and antimicrobial resistance of Klebsiella pneumoniae in China: a difference-in-differences analysis.

Introduction: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) of Klebsiella pneumoniae (K. pneumoniae) poses a significant global public health threat and is responsible for a high prevalence of infections and mortality. However, knowledge about how ambient temperature influences the AMR of K. pneumoniae is limited in the context of global warming. Methods: AMR data of 31 Chinese provinces was collected from the China Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance System (CARSS) between 2014 and 2020. Socioeconomic and meteorological data were collected from the China Statistical Yearbook during the same period. A modified difference-in-differences (DID) approach was applied to estimate the association between ambient temperature and third-generation cephalosporin-resistant K. pneumoniae (3GCRKP) and carbapenem-resistant K. pneumoniae (CRKP). Furthermore, moderating effects of socioeconomic factors were also evaluated. Results: Every 1°C increase in annual average temperature was associated with a 4.7% (relative risk (RR):1.047, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.031-1.082) increase in the detection rate of 3GCRKP, and a 10.7% (RR:1.107, 95% CI: 1.011-1.211) increase in the detection rate of CRKP. The relationships between ambient temperature and 3GCRKP and CRKP were found to be moderated by socioeconomic status (GDP per capita, income per capita, and consumption per capita; the interaction p-values <0.05), where higher economic status was found to strengthen the effects of temperature on the detection rate of 3GCRKP and weaken the effects on the detection rate of CRKP. Discussion: Ambient temperature was found to be positively associated with AMR of K. pneumoniae, and this association was moderated by socioeconomic status. Policymakers should consider the impact of global warming and high temperatures on the spread of 3GCRKP and CRKP when developing strategies for the containment of AMR.

Estimating the effect of increasing ambient temperature on antimicrobial resistance in China: A nationwide ecological study with the difference-in-differences approach.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and the possible consequences of rising ambient temperatures brought on by global warming have been extensively discussed. However, the epidemiological evidence on the effects of temperature on AMR is rare and little is known about the role of socioeconomic inequities. This ecological study obtained 31 provinces AMR data of Escherichia Coli (E. coli) from the China Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance System (CARSS) over the period from 2014 to 2020, which were linked to the meteorological and socioeconomic data published in the China Statistical Yearbook. Modified difference-in-differences (DID) analyses were performed to estimate the effect of ambient temperature on AMR of E. coli to third-generation cephalosporins (ceftriaxone and cefotaxime), carbapenems, and quinolones, adjusting for variations in meteorological and socioeconomic factors. We estimated that every 1 °C increase in average ambient temperature was associated with 2.71 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.20-4.24), 32.92 % (95 % CI: 15.62-52.81), and 1.81 % (95 % CI: 0.47-3.16) increase in the prevalence of E. coli resistance to third-generation cephalosporins (ceftriaxone and cefotaxime), carbapenems and quinolones, respectively. The link was more profound in the regions with lower temperature and a median level of average humidity, and the regions with lower income, lower expenditure (in economics), lower health resources, and lower hospital admissions. Neither the replacement of the temperature variable nor the alternative approaches for confounding adjustment changed the positive association between ambient temperature and AMR. In general, there exists a positive association between ambient temperature and AMR, although the strength of such an association varies by socioeconomic and health services factors. The association is possibly nonlinear, especially for E. coli resistance to third-generation cephalosporins. The findings suggest that AMR control programs should explicitly incorporate weather patterns to increase their effectiveness.

Epidemiological Characteristics and Antimicrobial Resistance Changes of Carbapenem-Resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae and Acinetobacter baumannii under the COVID-19 Outbreak: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis in a Large Teaching Hospital.

BACKGROUND: To investigate the epidemiological characteristics and resistance changes of carbapenem-resistant organisms (CROs) under the COVID-19 outbreak to provide evidence for precise prevention and control measures against hospital-acquired infections during the pandemic. METHODS: The distribution characteristics of CROs (i.e., carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae and Acinetobacter baumannii) were analyzed by collecting the results of the antibiotic susceptibility tests of diagnostic isolates from all patients. Using interrupted time series analysis, we applied Poisson and linear segmented regression models to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 on the numbers and drug resistance of CROs. We also conducted a stratified analysis using the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test. RESULTS: The resistance rate of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB) was 38.73% higher after the COVID-19 outbreak compared with before (p < 0.05). In addition, the long-term effect indicated that the prevalence of CRAB had a decreasing trend (p < 0.05). However, the overall resistance rate of Klebsiella pneumoniae did not significantly change after the COVID-19 outbreak. Stratified analysis revealed that the carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) rate increased in females (OR = 1.98, p < 0.05), those over 65 years old (OR = 1.49, p < 0.05), those with sputum samples (OR = 1.40, p < 0.05), and those in the neurology group (OR = 2.14, p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the change in nosocomial infections and resistance rates in CROs, highlighting the need for hospitals to closely monitor CROs, especially in high-risk populations and clinical departments. It is possible that lower adherence to infection control in crowded wards and staffing shortages may have contributed to this trend during the COVID-19 pandemic, which warrants further research.

Association between antibiotic resistance and increasing ambient temperature in China: An ecological study with nationwide panel data.

Background: Antibiotic resistance leads to longer hospital stays, higher medical costs, and increased mortality. However, research into the relationship between climate change and antibiotic resistance remains inconclusive. This study aims to address the gap in the literature by exploring the association of antibiotic resistance with regional ambient temperature and its changes over time. Methods: Data were obtained from the China Antimicrobial Surveillance Network (CHINET), monitoring the prevalence of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB), Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (CRPA) in 28 provinces/regions over the period from 2005 to 2019. Log-linear regression models were established to determine the association between ambient temperature and antibiotic resistance after adjustment for variations in socioeconomic, health service, and environmental factors. Findings: A 1 °C increase in average ambient temperature was associated with 1.14-fold increase (95%-CI [1.07-1.23]) in CRKP prevalence and 1.06-fold increase (95%-CI [1.03-1.08]) in CRPA prevalence. There was an accumulative effect of year-by-year changes in ambient temperature, with the four-year sum showing the greatest effect on antibiotic resistance. Higher prevalence of antibiotic resistance was also associated with higher antibiotic consumption, lower density of health facilities, higher density of hospital beds and higher level of corruption. Interpretation: Higher prevalence of antibiotic resistance is associated with increased regional ambient temperature. The development of antibiotic resistance under rising ambient temperature differs across various strains of bacteria. Funding: The National Key R&D Program of China (grant number: 2018YFA0606200), National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number: 72074234), Fundamental Scientific Research Funds for Central Universities, P.R. China (grant number: 22qntd4201), China Medical Board (grant number: CMB-OC-19-337).

Effects of social norm feedback on antibiotic prescribing and its characteristics in behaviour change techniques: a mixed-methods systematic review.

Low-cost and low-barrier antibiotic stewardship strategies are urgently needed to deal with the widespread problem of antibiotic resistance. Social norm feedback could be a promising strategy. In this mixed-methods systematic review (PROSPERO: CRD42022361039), we aimed to identify the key behaviour change techniques used in social norm feedback for antibiotic stewardship and assess their effectiveness in reducing antibiotic prescribing. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Scopus for peer-reviewed studies published between Jan 1, 2000, and Jan 20, 2022. 3547 studies were screened, of which 23 studies reporting the effects of social norm feedback interventions on antibiotic prescribing met the inclusion criteria. 19 behaviour change techniques were tested in the included studies. The meta-analyses showed that social norm feedback is an effective strategy for reducing antibiotic prescribing, with an overall rate difference of 4% (p<0·0001). The behaviour change technique with the highest effective ratio (ER=13) was information about health consequences, followed by instruction on how to perform the behaviour (ER=9) and adding objects to the environment (ER=9). Social norm feedback is a promising strategy to reduce antibiotic prescribing, and can be incorporated into the clinical decision-making support system.

The direct and interactive impacts of hydrological factors on bacillary dysentery across different geographical regions in central China.

Previous studies found non-linear mutual interactions among hydrometeorological factors on diarrheal disease. However, the complex interactions of the hydrometeorological, topographical and human activity factors need to be further explored. This study aimed to reveal how hydrological and other factors jointly influence bacillary dysentery in different geographical regions. Using Anhui Province in China, consisted of Huaibei plain, Jianghuai hilly and Wannan mountainous regions, we integrated multi-source data (6 meteorological, 3 hydrological, 2 topographic, and 9 socioeconomic variables) to explore the direct and interactive relationship between hydrological factors (quick flow, baseflow and local recharge) and other factors by combining the ecosystem model InVEST with spatial statistical analysis. The results showed hydrological factors had significant impact powers (q = 0.444 (Huaibei plain) for local recharge, 0.412 (Jianghuai hilly region) and 0.891 (Wannan mountainous region) for quick flow, respectively) on bacillary dysentery in different regions, but lost powers at provincial level. Land use and soil properties have created significant interactions with hydrological factors across Anhui province. Particularly, percentage of farmland in Anhui province can influence quick flow across Jianghuai, Wannan regions and the whole province, and it also has significant interactions with the baseflow and local recharge across the plain as well as the whole province. Percentage of urban areas had interactions with baseflow and local recharge in Jianghuai and Wannan regions. Additionally, baseflow and local recharge could be interacted with meteorological factors (e.g. temperature and wind speed), while these interactions varied in different regions. In conclusion, it was evident that hydrological factors had significant impacts on bacillary dysentery, and also interacted significantly with meteorological and socioeconomic factors. This study applying ecosystem model and spatial analysis help reveal the complex and nonlinear transmission of bacillary dysentery in different geographical regions, supporting the development of precise public health interventions with consideration of hydrological factors.

Local actions to health risks of heatwaves and dengue fever under climate change: Strategies and barriers among primary healthcare professionals in southern China.

BACKGROUND: Climate change and extreme weather poses significant threats to community health, which need to be addressed by local health workforce. This study investigated the perceptions of primary healthcare professionals in Southern China on individual and institutional strategies for actions on health impacts of climate change and the related barriers. METHODS: A mixed methodological approach was adopted, involving a cross-sectional questionnaire survey of 733 primary healthcare professionals (including medical doctors, nurses, public health practitioners, allied health workers and managers) selected through a multistage cluster randomized sampling strategy, and in-depth interviews of 25 key informants in Guangdong Province, China. The questionnaire survey investigated the perceptions of respondents on the health impacts of climate change and the individual and institutional actions that need to be taken in response to climate change. Multivariate logistic regression models were established to determine sociodemographic factors associated with the perceptions. The interviews tapped into coping strategies and perceived barriers in primary health care to adapt to tackle challenges of climate change. Contents analyses were performed to extract important themes. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: The majority (64%) of respondents agreed that climate change is happening, but only 53.6% believed in its human causes. Heat waves and infectious diseases were highly recognized as health problems associated with climate change. There was a strong consensus on the need to strengthen individual and institutional capacities in response to health impacts of climate change. The respondents believed that it is important to educate the public, take active efforts to control infectious vectors, and pay increased attention to the health care of vulnerable populations. The lack of funding and limited local workforce capacity is a major barrier for taking actions. Climate change should be integrated into primary health care development through sustainable governmental funding and resource support.

The historical roots and seminal research on health equity: a referenced publication year spectroscopy (RPYS) analysis.

BACKGROUND: Health equity is a multidimensional concept that has been internationally considered as an essential element for health system development. However, our understanding about the root causes of health equity is limited. In this study, we investigated the historical roots and seminal works of research on health equity. METHODS: Health equity-related publications were identified and downloaded from the Web of Science database (n = 67,739, up to 31 October 2018). Their cited references (n = 2,521,782) were analyzed through Reference Publication Year Spectroscopy (RPYS), which detected the historical roots and important works on health equity and quantified their impact in terms of referencing frequency. RESULTS: A total of 17 pronounced peaks and 31 seminal works were identified. The first publication on health equity appeared in 1966. But the first cited reference can be traced back to 1801. Most seminal works were conducted by researchers from the US (19, 61.3%), the UK (7, 22.6%) and the Netherlands (3, 9.7%). Research on health equity experienced three important historical stages: origins (1800-1965), formative (1966-1991) and development and expansion (1991-2018). The ideology of health equity was endorsed by the international society through the World Health Organization (1946) declaration based on the foundational works of Chadwick (1842), Engels (1945), Durkheim (1897) and Du Bois (1899). The concept of health equity originated from the disciplines of public health, sociology and political economics and has been a major research area of social epidemiology since the early nineteenth century. Studies on health equity evolved from evidence gathering to the identification of cost-effective policies and governmental interventions. CONCLUSION: The development of research on health equity is shaped by multiple disciplines, which has contributed to the emergence of a new stream of social epidemiology and political epidemiology. Past studies must be interpreted in light of their historical contexts. Further studies are needed to explore the causal pathways between the social determinants of health and health inequalities.

Planned sheltering as an adaptation strategy to climate change: Lessons learned from the severe flooding in Anhui Province of China in 2016.

BACKGROUND: Evacuation and sheltering is both a disaster response measure and a strategy to adapt to climate change, and consequently address the Sustainable Development Goals. Research has found that displacement does cause negative health impacts to evacuees, but few studies have observed how planned sheltering might reduce adverse health impacts. This article identifies the good practice and lessons learned from China's response to severe flooding in Anhui province in 2016. METHODS: First, we identified the key phases for disaster sheltering by analyzing related government reports. We then interviewed 21 relevant professionals in order to identify good practice and lessons learned which could lead to better health outcomes (e.g., reduce fatalities, infectious diseases, and mental health problems). Interviewees were selected through a purposive sampling strategy, which identified emergency management professionals and those who had been assigned evacuation, sheltering, or medical tasks. Finally, thematic analysis and the constant comparative method were used to code, identify, and describe the good practice and challenges during key phases. RESULTS: Good practice included: using early warning systems to advise communities of risks and enforce evacuation in the flood zone; preparing and using schools as shelters with open-ended periods of operation; and, providing stable shelter accommodations which offered medical and public health services, clean drinking water and food, sanitation, and toilet hygiene through multiagency cooperation. Challenges included: providing mental health services, evaluating intervention effectiveness, managing volunteers, monitoring long-term health effects, and providing economic support. CONCLUSIONS: The unintended negative effects caused by sheltering during extreme weather can be reduced. This requires close cooperation among government entities to establish planned mass shelters with appropriate levels of personal, environmental and healthcare support and to ensure long-term physical and mental health support. Additionally, if disaster mitigation strategies are integrated with climate adaptation plans, we can design more health-oriented and sustainable cities.

Identifying Infectious Diarrhea Hot spots and Associated Socioeconomic Factors in Anhui Province, China.

Infectious diarrhea cases have increased during the past years in the Anhui Province of China, but little is known about its spatial cluster pattern and associated socioeconomic factors. We obtained county-level total cases of infectious diarrhea in 105 counties of Anhui in 2016 and computed age-adjusted rates. Socioeconomic factors were collected from the Statistical Yearbook. Hot spot analysis was used to identify hot and cold spot counties for infectious diarrhea incidence. We then applied binary logistic regression models to determine the association between socioeconomic factors and hot spot or cold spot clustering risk. Hot spot analysis indicated there were both significant hot spot (29 counties) and cold spot (18 counties) clustering areas for infectious diarrhea in Anhui (P < 0.10). Multivariate binary logistic regression results showed that infectious diarrhea hot spots were positively associated with per capita gross domestic product (GDP), with an adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 3.51, 95% CI: 2.09-5.91, whereas cold spots clustering were positively associated with the number of medical staffs (AOR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.08-1.29) and negatively associated with the number of public health physicians (AOR: 0.27, 95% CI: 0.09-0.86). We identified locations for hot and cold spot clusters of infectious diarrhea incidence in Anhui, and the clustering risks were significantly associated with health workforce resources and the regional economic development. Targeted interventions should be carried out with considerations of regional socioeconomic conditions.

Effects of ambient temperature on bacillary dysentery: A multi-city analysis in Anhui Province, China.

BACKGROUND: Rising ambient temperature is expected to increase incidence of bacillary dysentery (BD), but few studies have compared the temperature-BD effects of different age groups and cities in China, especially in a multi-city setting. OBJECTIVES: We used city-specific data including BD cases and meteorological variables to determine the relationship between BD incidence and temperature at provincial level. METHODS: Weekly BD disease surveillance data and meteorological variables were collected in all 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province of China. Firstly, city-specific weekly mean temperature-BD incidence associations were estimated with Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model (DLNM). Secondly, city-specific estimates were pooled at province-level through multivariate meta-analysis. Also, we conducted subgroup analyses for ages (children <5 years old and population of other ages) and urbanization of cities (high and low level), respectively. RESULTS: In Anhui, BD morbidity risk increased with increasing weekly mean temperature. Relative risks (RR) at the 90th percentile (27.5 °C) versus the 50th percentile (17 °C) of weekly mean temperature were 1.42 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.75) and 2.02 (95% CI: 1.76, 2.32) for children <5 and population of other ages, respectively. The relative risk of high temperature on other ages group was higher than that of children under five years old (p = 0.006). Children under 5 in high urbanized cities appeared to be more vulnerable to the effects of ambient high temperature (RR: 1.56, 95% CI: 1.20, 1.92) than in low urbanized cities (RR: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.70, 1.46), the difference between two intervals was statistically significant (p = 0.044). CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that high temperatures may be an important trigger of BD incidence, and especially lead to a substantial burden of BD for high urbanized cities in Anhui Province of China.

The impact of the 2016 flood event in Anhui Province, China on infectious diarrhea disease: An interrupted time-series study.

Climate change may bring more frequent and severe floods which will heighten public health problems, including an increased risk of infectious diarrhea in susceptible populations. Affected by heavy rainfall and an El Niño event, a destructive flood occurred in Anhui province, China on 18th June 2016. This study investigates the impact of this severe flood on infectious diarrhea at both city-level and provincial level, and further to identify modifying factor. We obtained information on infectious diarrheal cases during 2013-2017 from the National Disease Surveillance System. An interrupted time-series design was used to estimate effects of the flood event on diarrhea in 16 cities. Then we applied a meta-analysis to estimate the area-level pooled effects of the flood in both flooded areas and non-flooded areas. Finally, a meta-regression was applied to determine whether proximity to flood was a predictor of city-level risks. Stratified analyses by gender and age group were also conducted for flooded areas. A significant increase in infectious diarrhea risk (RR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.23) after the flood event was found in flooded area with variation in risks across cities, while there was no increase in non-flooded areas. Diarrheal risks post-flood was progressively higher in cities with greater proximity to the Yangtze River. Children aged 5-14 were at highest risk of diarrhea post-flood in the flooded areas. Our study provides strong evidence that the 2016 severe flood significantly increased infectious diarrheal risk in exposed populations. Local public health agencies are advised to develop intervention programs to prevent and control infectious diarrhea risk when a major flood occurs, especially in areas close to water bodies and among vulnerable populations.

Short-term effects of moderate and severe floods on infectious diarrheal diseases in Anhui Province, China.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies showed that floods can lead to diarrheal diseases outbreaks; however, the short-term effects of different severity floods on diarrheal diseases are not clear. This study aims to examine 0-14 days lagged effects of moderate and severe floods on diarrhea in Anhui Province, one heavily flood-prone area in China. METHODS: Daily diarrheal cases from January 1, 2013 to August 31, 2017 in 16 cities of Anhui were extracted from the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. Meteorological data were obtained, and moderate or severe floods were identified according to Comprehensive Study Group of Major Natural Disasters of the State Science and Technology Commission in China. The quasi-Poisson generalized linear models were applied to evaluate effects of floods on daily diarrheal cases in each city with 0-14 days lag, and we divided post-flood periods into week 1 and week 2, further conducted provincial-level meta-analysis. RESULTS: Immediate effects of floods on diarrheal diseases were observed within 7 days, and at provincial level moderate floods had a RR of 1.05 (95% CI: 1.02-1.09) and severe floods RR = 1.04 (95% CI: 1.01-1.08) controlling for population size, temperature and relative humidity etc., but less effects appeared in the second week. Impacts of flooding on diarrheal diseases varied among cities. Moderate floods in week 1 had a RR of 1.51 (95% CI: 1.29-1.78) in Bozhou, and severe floods had a RR = 1.31 (95% CI: 1.05-1.64) in Chuzhou. The severe floods may have higher RR in week 1 compared with moderate floods in Anqing (1.10 vs 1.06), Chuzhou (1.31 vs 1.07) and Luan (1.18 vs 1.00). CONCLUSIONS: Both moderate and severe floods can significantly increase diarrheal risks in one week with regionally varied effects, and severe floods may lead higher risks. The findings have implications for preparing emergent interventions in hazard periods to reduce health risks of floods.

Health professionals in a changing climate: protocol for a scoping review.

INTRODUCTION: Climate change will impose significant health impacts. Although we know health professionals should play a critical role in protecting human health from climate change, their preparedness to engage with these issues worldwide is unclear. This study aims to map the range and nature of existing evidence regarding health professionals' knowledge, attitudes, perceptions and practices regarding climate change and health impacts and the challenges they face, and identify knowledge gaps to guide future development of research, policy and practices. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will perform a scoping review based on the six-stage framework proposed by Arksey and O'Malley. Our study includes peer-reviewed literature focusing on any aspect of health professionals' work regarding climate change and health since 2002 and indexed in MEDLINE/Pubmed, Web of Science, Scopus or Embase. Identified papers will be described and assessed. Thematic analysis will be applied to evaluate and categorise the study findings. IMPLICATIONS AND DISSEMINATION: This is the first scoping review of health professionals' activities to anticipate and prepare for health impacts attributable to climate change. It will provide evidence regarding the current situations worldwide and gaps in preparedness. The findings can be used to highlight accomplishments to date, identify gaps and further develop good practices for health professionals' engagement. The results will be published in the peer-reviewed literature and shared at health professional society meetings.

Preparing the next generation of health professionals to tackle climate change: Are China's medical students ready?

BACKGROUND: Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. Medical students will lead the health sector responses and adaptation efforts in the near future, yet little is known in China about their knowledge, perceptions and preparedness to meet these challenges. METHODS: A nationwide study was conducted at five medical universities across different regions of China using a two-stage stratified cluster sampling design. A self-administered questionnaire was applied to collect the information including perception, preparedness and educational needs in response to climate change. The data were first analyzed descriptively, then chi-square tests and kruskal wallis tests were applied to determined differences among subgroups, and logistic regression analysis were deployed to detect the socio-demographic factors influencing student's perception. RESULTS: A total of 1436 medical students were approached and 1387 participated in the study (96.6% response rate). Most students were aware of the health impacts because of climate change, with over 90% perceived air quality-related and heat-related illness, while only a small part identified undernutrition and mental health. Approximately 90% embraced their role in tackling climate change, but 50% reported themselves and the health sectors were not adequately prepared. Compared to clinical students, preventive medicine students were more likely to perceive their responsibility to address climate change (OR:1.36, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.78). Also, 80% students admitted insufficient information and knowledge on climate change and health. Most students agreed that climate change and its health impacts should be included into their current curriculum. CONCLUSIONS: Medical students in China were aware of climate change and felt responsible, but were not ready to make responses to its health impacts. Educational efforts should reinforce eco-medical literacy development and capacity building in the era of climate change.