Clinical outcomes of doxycycline, azithromycin and chloramphenicol for the treatment of patients with severe scrub typhus.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have evaluated treatment efficacy of various antibiotics for patients with mild-to-moderate scrub typhus (ST). However, the efficacy of different antibiotics for treating severe ST remains uncertain. METHODS: A retrospective study of patients with severe ST was undertaken in China. The treatment efficacy rates of doxycycline, azithromycin and chloramphenicol were compared, using treatment failure and time to defervescence as primary outcomes. RESULTS: In total, 876 patients with severe ST who initially received doxycycline, azithromycin or chloramphenicol were recruited. The treatment failure rate did not differ significantly between patients receiving doxycycline and patients receiving azithromycin (6.0% vs 11.4%; P=0.109). However, a higher treatment failure rate was observed for chloramphenicol compared with doxycycline (14.6% vs 6.0%; P=0.004). No significant difference in time to defervescence was observed between patients receiving doxycycline, azithromycin or chloramphenicol. Further subgroup analysis revealed a higher risk of treatment failure for chloramphenicol compared with doxycycline in patients with acute kidney injury, pneumonia and shock; and a higher risk of treatment failure for azithromycin compared with doxycycline in patients with meningitis. Significant correlation was found between azithromycin resistance and meningitis (P=0.009), and between chloramphenicol resistance and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) (P<0.001) using Cramer's V correlation coefficient. Multi-variate Cox regression analysis revealed significant associations between time to defervescence and presence of ARDS, shock, myocarditis, meningitis and acute kidney injury. CONCLUSION: Azithromycin and doxycycline were found to have significant therapeutic effects in patients with severe ST. In contast, chloramphenicol was less efficacious for the treatment of these patients.

Clinical characteristics and risk factors for severe scrub typhus in pediatric and elderly patients.

BACKGROUND: Scrub typhus (ST) is a life-threatening infectious disease if appropriate treatment is unavailable. Large discrepancy of clinical severity of ST patients was reported among age groups, and the underlying risk factors for severe disease are unclear. METHODS: Clinical and epidemiological data of ST patients were collected in 55 surveillance hospitals located in Guangzhou City, China, from 2012 to 2018. Severe prognosis and related factors were determined and compared between pediatric and elderly patients. RESULTS: A total of 2,074 ST patients including 209 pediatric patients and 1,865 elderly patients were included, with a comparable disease severity rate of 11.0% (95% CI 7.1%-16.1%) and 10.3% (95% CI 9.0%-11.8%). Different frequencies of clinical characteristics including lymphadenopathy, skin rash, enlarged tonsils, etc. were observed between pediatric and elderly patients. Presence of peripheral edema and decreased hemoglobin were the most important predictors of severe illness in pediatric patients with adjusted ORs by 38.99 (9.96-152.67, p<0.001) and 13.22 (1.54-113.50, p = 0.019), respectively, while presence of dyspnea and increased total bilirubin were the potential determinants of severe disease in elderly patients with adjusted ORs by 11.69 (7.33-18.64, p<0.001) and 3.17 (1.97-5.11, p<0.001), respectively. Compared with pediatric patients, elderly patients were more likely to receive doxycycline (64.8% v.s 9.9%, p<0.001), while less likely to receive azithromycin therapy (5.0% v.s 41.1%, p<0.001). CONCLUSION: The disease severity rate is comparable between pediatric and elderly ST patients, while different clinical features and laboratory indicators were associated with development of severe complications for pediatric and elderly patients, which is helpful for diagnosis and progress assessment of disease for ST patients.

Desulfovibrio is not always associated with adverse health effects in the Guangdong Gut Microbiome Project.

Desulfovibrio (DSV) is frequently found in the human intestine but limited knowledge is available regarding the relationship between DSV and host health. In this study, we analyzed large-scale cohort data from the Guangdong Gut Microbiome Project to study the ecology of DSV and the associations of DSV and host health parameters. Phylogenetic analysis showed that Desulfovibrio piger might be the most common and abundant DSV species in the GGMP. Predominant sub-OTUs of DSV were positively associated with bacterial community diversity. The relative abundance of DSV was positively correlated with beneficial genera, including Oscillospira, Coprococcus,Ruminococcus,Akkermansia, Roseburia,Faecalibacterium, andBacteroides, and was negatively associated with harmful genera, such as Clostridium,Escherichia,Klebsiella, and Ralstonia. Moreover, the relative abundance of DSV was negatively correlated with body mass index, waist size, triglyceride levels, and uric acid levels. This suggests that DSV is associated with healthy hosts in some human populations.

Distribution and characteristics of Beilong virus among wild rodents and shrews in China.

Beilong virus (BeiV), a member of the newly recognized genus Jeilongvirus of family Paramyxoviridae, has been reported with limited geographic and host scopes, only in Hongkong, China and from two rat species. Here, by next-generation sequencing (NGS) on dominant wild small animal species in 4 provinces in China, we obtained a complete sequence of BeiV strain from Rattus norvegicus in Guangdong, neighboring HongKong, China. We then made an expanded epidemiological investigation in 11 provinces to obtain the geographic distribution and genetic features of this virus. Altogether 7168 samples from 2005 animals (1903 rodents, 100 shrews, 2 mustelidaes) that belonged to 33 species of Cricetidae, Muridae, Sciuridae and Dipodidae family of Rodentia, 3 species of Soricidae family of Soricomorpha, 2 species of Mustelidae family of Carnivora were examined by RT-PCR and sequencing. A positive rate of 3.7% (266/7168) was obtained that was detected from 22 animal species, including 5 species of Cricetidae family, 12 species of Muridae family, 2 species of Sciuridae family and 3 species of Soricidae family. Phylogenetic analyses based on 154 partial Large gene sequences grouped the current BeiV into two lineages, that were related to their geographic regions and animal hosts. Our study showed the wide distribution of BeiV in common species of wild rodents and shrews in China, highlighting the necessity of epidemiological study in wider regions.

High Oscillospira abundance indicates constipation and low BMI in the Guangdong Gut Microbiome Project.

Oscillospira is a common yet rarely cultivated gut bacterial genus. Recently human gut microbiota studies have demonstrated its underlying significance for host health. However, little is known about Oscillospira-related host information and the links between Oscillospira and other members of the gut microbial community. To study the ecology of Oscillospira and gain insights into Oscillospira-related host physiological conditions, we analyzed data from the Guangdong Gut Microbiome Project, one of the largest gut microbiota database currently. Data of 6376 participants were analyzed. We studied the prevalence and relative abundance of Oscillospira as well as the profiles of associated microbial communities. We found that Oscillospira is closely related to human health because its abundance was positively correlated with microbial diversity, high density lipoprotein, and sleep time, and was inversely correlated with diastolic blood pressure, systolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, triglyceride, uric acid and Bristol stool type. Moreover, random forest analysis with five-fold cross validation showed Oscillospira could be a predictor of low BMI and constipation in the subset. Overall, in this study, we provide a basic understanding of Oscillospira-related microbiota profile and physiological parameters of the host. Our results indicate Oscillospira may play a role in aggravating constipation.

Household Secondary Attack Rate of COVID-19 and Associated Determinants.

BACKGROUND: As of April 2, 2020, the global reported number of COVID-19 cases has crossed over 1 million with more than 55,000 deaths. The household transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, the causative pathogen, remains elusive. METHODS: Based on a comprehensive contact-tracing dataset from Guangzhou, we estimated both the population-level effective reproductive number and individual-level secondary attack rate (SAR) in the household setting. We assessed age effects on transmissibility and the infectivity of COVID-19 cases during their incubation period. RESULTS: A total of 195 unrelated clusters with 212 primary cases, 137 nonprimary (secondary or tertiary) cases and 1938 uninfected close contacts were traced. We estimated the household SAR to be 13.8% (95% CI: 11.1-17.0%) if household contacts are defined as all close relatives and 19.3% (95% CI: 15.5-23.9%) if household contacts only include those at the same residential address as the cases, assuming a mean incubation period of 4 days and a maximum infectious period of 13 days. The odds of infection among children (<20 years old) was only 0.26 (95% CI: 0.13-0.54) times of that among the elderly (≥60 years old). There was no gender difference in the risk of infection. COVID-19 cases were at least as infectious during their incubation period as during their illness. On average, a COVID-19 case infected 0.48 (95% CI: 0.39-0.58) close contacts. Had isolation not been implemented, this number increases to 0.62 (95% CI: 0.51-0.75). The effective reproductive number in Guangzhou dropped from above 1 to below 0.5 in about 1 week. CONCLUSION: SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible in households than SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, and the elderly ≥60 years old are the most vulnerable to household transmission. Case finding and isolation alone may be inadequate to contain the pandemic and need to be used in conjunction with heightened restriction of human movement as implemented in Guangzhou.

Household secondary attack rate of COVID-19 and associated determinants in Guangzhou, China: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: As of June 8, 2020, the global reported number of COVID-19 cases had reached more than 7 million with over 400 000 deaths. The household transmissibility of the causative pathogen, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), remains unclear. We aimed to estimate the secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 among household and non-household close contacts in Guangzhou, China, using a statistical transmission model. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we used a comprehensive contact tracing dataset from the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention to estimate the secondary attack rate of COVID-19 (defined as the probability that an infected individual will transmit the disease to a susceptible individual) among household and non-household contacts, using a statistical transmission model. We considered two alternative definitions of household contacts in the analysis: individuals who were either family members or close relatives, such as parents and parents-in-law, regardless of residential address, and individuals living at the same address regardless of relationship. We assessed the demographic determinants of transmissibility and the infectivity of COVID-19 cases during their incubation period. FINDINGS: Between Jan 7, 2020, and Feb 18, 2020, we traced 195 unrelated close contact groups (215 primary cases, 134 secondary or tertiary cases, and 1964 uninfected close contacts). By identifying households from these groups, assuming a mean incubation period of 5 days, a maximum infectious period of 13 days, and no case isolation, the estimated secondary attack rate among household contacts was 12·4% (95% CI 9·8-15·4) when household contacts were defined on the basis of close relatives and 17·1% (13·3-21·8) when household contacts were defined on the basis of residential address. Compared with the oldest age group (≥60 years), the risk of household infection was lower in the youngest age group (<20 years; odds ratio [OR] 0·23 [95% CI 0·11-0·46]) and among adults aged 20-59 years (OR 0·64 [95% CI 0·43-0·97]). Our results suggest greater infectivity during the incubation period than during the symptomatic period, although differences were not statistically significant (OR 0·61 [95% CI 0·27-1·38]). The estimated local reproductive number (R) based on observed contact frequencies of primary cases was 0·5 (95% CI 0·41-0·62) in Guangzhou. The projected local R, had there been no isolation of cases or quarantine of their contacts, was 0·6 (95% CI 0·49-0·74) when household was defined on the basis of close relatives. INTERPRETATION: SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible in households than SARS-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. Older individuals (aged ≥60 years) are the most susceptible to household transmission of SARS-CoV-2. In addition to case finding and isolation, timely tracing and quarantine of close contacts should be implemented to prevent onward transmission during the viral incubation period. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health, Science and Technology Plan Project of Guangzhou, Project for Key Medicine Discipline Construction of Guangzhou Municipality, Key Research and Development Program of China.

Association between climatic factors and varicella incidence in Guangzhou, Southern China, 2006-2018.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the correlation between climatic factors and the incidence of varicella in Guangzhou, and improve the prevention measures about public health. METHODS: Data for daily climatic variables and varicella incidence from 2006 to 2018 in Guangzhou were collected from the Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau and the National Notifiable Disease Report System. Distributed lag nonlinear models were applied to evaluate the association between climatic factors and varicella incidence. RESULTS: The nonlinear effects of meteorological factors were observed. At lag day21，when the mean temperature was 31.8 °C, the relative risk was the highest as 1.11 (95% CI: 1.07-1.16). When the diurnal temperature range was 24.0 °C at lag day 20, the highest RR was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.05-1.17). For rainfall, the highest RR was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.01-1.19) at lag day 21，when the aggregate rainfall was 160 mm. When air pressure was 1028 hPa, the highest RR was 1.08 (95% CI: 1.04-1.13) at lag day 21. When wind speed was 0.7 m/s, the highest RR was 1.07 (95% CI: 1.04-1.11) at lag day 7. When the hours of sunshine were 9.0 h at lag day 21, the RR was highest as 1.04 (95% CI: 1.02-1.05). Aggregate rainfall, air pressure, and sunshine hours were positively correlated with the incidence of varicella, which was inconsistent with the wind velocity. Mean temperature showed a reverse U-shape curve relationship with varicella, while the diurnal temperature range showed a binomial distribution curve. The extreme effect of climatic factors on the varicella cases was statistically significant, apart from the extremely low effect of rainfall. CONCLUSION: Our preliminary results offered fundamental knowledge which might be benefit to give an insight into epidemic trends of varicella and develop an early warning system. We could use our findings about influential factors to strengthen the intervention and prevention of varicella.

Effects of dairy products, calcium and vitamin D on ovarian cancer risk: a meta-analysis of twenty-nine epidemiological studies.

Findings for the roles of dairy products, Ca and vitamin D on ovarian cancer risk remain controversial. We aimed to assess these associations by using an updated meta-analysis. Five electronic databases (e.g. PubMed and Embase) were searched from inception to 24 December 2019. Pooled relative risks (RR) with 95 % CI were calculated. A total of twenty-nine case-control or cohort studies were included. For comparisons of the highest v. lowest intakes, higher whole milk intake was associated with increased ovarian cancer risk (RR 1·35; 95 % CI 1·15, 1·59), whereas decreased risks were observed for higher intakes of low-fat milk (RR 0·84; 95 % CI 0·73, 0·96), dietary Ca (RR 0·71; 95 % CI 0·60, 0·84) and dietary vitamin D (RR 0·80; 95 % CI 0·67, 0·95). Additionally, for every 100 g/d increment, increased ovarian cancer risks were found for total dairy products (RR 1·03; 95 % CI 1·01, 1·04) and for whole milk (RR 1·07; 95 % CI 1·03, 1·11); however, decreased risks were found for 100 g/d increased intakes of low-fat milk (RR 0·95; 95 % CI 0·91, 0·99), cheese (RR 0·87; 95 % CI 0·76, 0·98), dietary Ca (RR 0·96; 95 % CI 0·95, 0·98), total Ca (RR 0·98; 95 % CI 0·97, 0·99), dietary vitamin D (RR 0·92; 95 % CI 0·87, 0·97) and increased levels of circulating vitamin D (RR 0·84; 95 % CI 0·72, 0·97). These results show that whole milk intake might contribute to a higher ovarian cancer risk, whereas low-fat milk, dietary Ca and dietary vitamin D might reduce the risk.

Ambient air pollution and depression: A systematic review with meta-analysis up to 2019.

Although epidemiological studies have evaluated the associations of ambient air pollution with depression, the results remained mixed. To clarify the nature of the association, we performed a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis with the Inverse Variance Heterogeneity (IVhet) model to estimate the effect of ambient air pollution on depression. Three English and four Chinese databases were searched for epidemiologic studies investigating associations of ambient particulate (diameter ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5), ≤10 µm (PM10)) and gaseous (nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and ozone (O3)) air pollutants with depression. Odds ratios (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated to evaluate the strength of the associations. We identified 22 eligible studies from 10 countries of the world. Under the IVhet model, per 10 µg/m3 increase in long-term exposure to PM2.5 (OR: 1.12, 95% CI: 0.97-1.29, I2: 51.6), PM10 (OR: 1.04, 95% CI: 0.88-1.25, I2: 85.7), and NO2 (OR: 1.05, 95% CI: 0.83-1.34, I2: 83.6), as well as short-term exposure to PM2.5 (OR: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.99-1.04, I2: 51.6), PM10 (OR: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.98-1.04, I2: 86.7), SO2 (OR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.99-1.07, I2: 71.2), and O3 (OR: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.99-1.03, I2: 82.2) was not significantly associated with depression. However, we observed significant association between short-term NO2 exposure (per 10 µg/m3 increase) and depression (OR: 1.02, 95% CI: 1.00-1.04, I2: 65.4). However, the heterogeneity was high for all of the pooled estimates, which reduced credibility of the cumulative evidence. Additionally, publication bias was detected for six of eight meta-estimates. In conclusion, short-term exposure to NO2, but not other air pollutants, was significantly associated with depression. Given the limitations, a larger meta-analysis incorporating future well-designed longitudinal studies, and investigations into potential biologic mechanisms, will be necessary for a more definitive result.

Transmission risk of avian influenza virus along poultry supply chains in Guangdong, China.

OBJECTIVES: Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) poise significant risk to human health and the poultry industry. We evaluated the transmission risk along the poultry supply chain. METHODS: During October 2015 and July 2016, four rounds of cross-sectional surveys were performed to characterize AIV spread in farms, transport vehicles, slaughterhouses, wholesale and retail live poultry markets (LPMs). Poultry cloacal and oral swabs, environmental swabs, bioaerosol samples and human sera were collected. Poultry and environmental samples were tested for AIVs by rRT-PCR, further subtyped by next generation sequencing. Previous human H9N2 infections were identified by hemagglutination inhibition and microneutralization tests. Logistic regression was fitted to compare AIV transmission risk in different settings. RESULTS: AIVs was detected in 23.9% (424/1771) of the poultry and environmental samples. AIV detection rates in farms, transport vehicles, wholesale and retail LPMs were 4.5%, 11.1%, 30.3% and 51.2%, respectively. 5.2%, 8.3% and 12.8% of the poultry workers were seropositive in farms, wholesale and retail LPMs, respectively. The regression analysis showed that virus detection and transmission risk to human increased progressively along the poultry supply chain. CONCLUSIONS: Strengthening control measures at every level along the poultry supply chain, using a one health approach, is crucial to control AIV circulation.

Effect of meteorological factors on scarlet fever incidence in Guangzhou City, Southern China, 2006-2017.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the relationship between meteorological factors and scarlet fever incidence from 2006 to 2017 in Guangzhou, the largest subtropical city of Southern China, and assist public health prevention and control measures. METHODS: Data for weekly scarlet fever incidence and meteorological variables from 2006 to 2017 in Guangzhou were collected from the National Notifiable Disease Report System (NNDRS) and the Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau (GZMB). Distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs) were conducted to estimate the effect of meteorological factors on weekly scarlet fever incidence in Guangzhou. RESULTS: We observed nonlinear effects of temperature, relative humidity, and wind velocity. The risk was the highest when the weekly mean temperature was 31 °C during lag week 14, yielding a relative risk (RR) of 1.48 (95% CI: 1.01-2.17). When relative humidity was 43.5% during lag week 0, the RR was 1.49 (95% CI: 1.04-2.12); the highest RR (1.55, 95% CI: 1.20-1.99) was reached when relative humidity was 93.5% during lag week 20. When wind velocity was 4.4 m/s during lag week 13, the RR was highest at 3.41 (95% CI: 1.57-7.44). Positive correlations were observed among weekly temperature ranges and atmospheric pressure with scarlet fever incidence, while a negative correlation was detected with aggregate rainfall. The cumulative extreme effect of meteorological variables on scarlet fever incidence was statistically significant, except for the high effect of wind velocity. CONCLUSION: Weekly mean temperature, relative humidity, and wind velocity had double-trough effects on scarlet fever incidence; high weekly temperature range, high atmospheric pressure, and low aggregate rainfall were risk factors for scarlet fever morbidity. Our findings provided preliminary, but fundamental, information that may be useful for a better understanding of epidemic trends of scarlet fever and for developing an early warning system. Laboratory surveillance for scarlet fever should be strengthened in the future.

Photoperiodic diapause in a subtropical population of Aedes albopictus in Guangzhou, China: optimized field-laboratory-based study and statistical models for comprehensive characterization.

BACKGROUND: Aedes albopictus is among the 100 most invasive species worldwide and poses a major risk to public health. Photoperiodic diapause provides a crucial ecological basis for the adaptation of this species to adverse environments. Ae. albopictus is the vital vector transmitting dengue virus in Guangzhou, but its diapause activities herein remain obscure. METHODS: In the laboratory, yeast powder and food slurry were compared for a proper diapause determination method, and the critical photoperiod (CPP) was tested at illumination times of 11, 11.5, 12, 12.5, 13, and 13.5 h. A 4-parameter logistic (4PL) regression model was selected to estimate the CPP. In the field, the seasonal dynamics of the Ae. albopictus population, egg diapause, and hatching of overwintering eggs were investigated monthly, weekly, and daily, respectively. A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to assess the associations of diapause with meteorological factors. RESULTS: In the laboratory, both the wild population and the Foshan strain of Ae. albopictus were induced to diapause at an incidence greater than 80%, and no significant difference (P > 0.1) was observed between the two methods for identifying diapause. The CPP of this population was estimated to be 12.312 h of light. In the field, all of the indexes of the wild population were at the lowest levels from December to February, and the Route Index was the first to increase in March. Diapause incidence displayed pronounced seasonal dynamics. It was estimated that the day lengths of 12.111 h at week2016, 43 and 12.373 h at week2017, 41 contributed to diapause in 50% of the eggs. Day length was estimated to be the main meteorological factor related to diapause. CONCLUSIONS: Photoperiodic diapause of Ae. albopictus in Guangzhou of China was confirmed and comprehensively elucidated in both the laboratory and the field. Diapause eggs are the main form for overwintering and begin to hatch in large quantities in March in Guangzhou. Furthermore, this study also established an optimized investigation system and statistical models for the study of Ae. albopictus diapause. These findings will contribute to the prevention and control of Ae. albopictus and mosquito-borne diseases.

The dengue preface to endemic in mainland China: the historical largest outbreak by Aedes albopictus in Guangzhou, 2014.

BACKGROUND: Dengue was regarded as a mild epidemic in mainland China transmitted by Aedes albopictus. However, the 2014 record-breaking outbreak in Guangzhou could change the situation. In order to provide an early warning of epidemic trends and provide evidence for prevention and control strategies, we seek to characterize the 2014 outbreak through application of detailed cases and entomological data, as well as phylogenetic analysis of viral envelope (E) gene. METHODS: We used case survey data identified through the Notifiable Infectious Disease Report System, entomological surveillance and population serosurvey, along with laboratory testing for IgM/IgG, NS1, and isolation of viral samples followed by E gene sequencing and phylogenetic analysis to examine the epidemiological and molecular characteristics of the outbreak. RESULTS: The 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou accounted for nearly 80% of total reported cases that year in mainland China; a total of 37,376 cases including 37,340 indigenous cases with incidence rate 2908.3 per million and 36 imported cases were reported in Guangzhou, with 14,055 hospitalized and 5 deaths. The epidemic lasted for 193 days from June 11 to December 21, with the highest incidence observed in domestic workers, the unemployed and retirees. The inapparent infection rate was 18.00% (135/750). In total, 96 dengue virus 1 (DENV-1) and 11 dengue virus 2 (DENV-2) strains were isolated. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that the DENV-1 strains were divided into genotype I and V, similar to the strains isolated in Guangzhou and Dongguan in 2013. The DENV-2 strains isolated were similar to those imported from Thailand on May 11 in 2014 and that imported from Indonesia in 2012. CONCLUSIONS: The 2014 dengue epidemic was confirmed to be the first co-circulation of DENV-1 and DENV-2 in Guangzhou. The DENV-1 strain was endemic, while the DENV-2 strain was imported, being efficiently transmitted by the Aedes albopictus vector species at levels as high as Aedes aegypti.

Rapid increase of scrub typhus incidence in Guangzhou, southern China, 2006-2014.

BACKGROUND: In the last decade, scrub typhus (ST) has been emerging or re-emerging in some areas of Asia, including Guangzhou, one of the most affected endemic areas of ST in China. METHODS: Based on the data on all cases reported in Guangzhou from 2006 to 2014, we characterized the epidemiological features, and identified environmental determinants for the spatial distribution of ST using a panel negative binomial model. RESULTS: A total of 4821 scrub typhus cases were reported in Guangzhou during 2006-2014. The annual incidence increased noticeably and the increase was relatively high and rapid in rural townships and among elderly females. The majority of cases (86.8%) occurred during May-October, and farmers constituted the majority of the cases, accounting for 33.9% in urban and 61.6% in rural areas. The number of housekeeper patients had a rapid increment in both rural and urban areas during the study period. Atmospheric pressure and relative humidity with lags of 1 or 2 months, distributions of broadleaved forest and rural township were identified as determinants for the spatiotemporal distribution of scrub typhus. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that surveillance and public education need to be focused on the elderly farmers in rural areas covered with broadleaf forest in southern China.

Live Bird Exposure among the General Public, Guangzhou, China, May 2013.

BACKGROUND: A novel avian-origin influenza A(H7N9) caused a major outbreak in Mainland China in early 2013. Exposure to live poultry was believed to be the major route of infection. There are limited data on how the general public changes their practices regarding live poultry exposure in response to the early outbreak of this novel influenza and the frequency of population exposure to live poultry in different areas of China. METHODOLOGY: This study investigated population exposures to live birds from various sources during the outbreak of H7N9 in Guangzhou city, China in 2013 and compared them with those observed during the 2006 influenza A(H5N1) outbreak. Adults were telephone-interviewed using two-stage sampling, stratified by three residential areas of Guangzhou: urban areas and two semi-rural areas in one of which (Zengcheng) A(H7N9) virus was detected in a chicken from wet markets. Logistic regression models were built to describe practices protecting against avian influenza, weighted by age and gender, and then compare these practices across residential areas in 2013 with those from a comparable 2006 survey. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Of 1196 respondents, 45% visited wet markets at least daily and 22.0% reported buying live birds from wet markets at least weekly in April-May, 2013, after the H7N9 epidemic was officially declared in late March 2013. Of those buying live birds, 32.3% reported touching birds when buying and 13.7% would slaughter the poultry at home. Although only 10.1% of the respondents reported raising backyard birds, 92.1% of those who did so had physical contact with the birds they raised. Zengcheng respondents were less likely to report buying live birds from wet markets, but more likely to buy from other sources when compared to urban respondents. Compared with the 2006 survey, the prevalence of buying live birds from wet markets, touching when buying and slaughtering birds at home had substantially declined in the 2013 survey. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Although population exposures to live poultry were substantially fewer in 2013 compared to 2006, wet markets and backyard poultry remained the two major sources of live bird exposures for the public in Guangzhou in 2013. Zengcheng residents seemed to have reduced buying live birds from wet markets but not from other sources in response to the detection of H7N9 virus in wet markets.

The Impacts of Mosquito Density and Meteorological Factors on Dengue Fever Epidemics in Guangzhou, China, 2006-2014: a Time-series Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the associations between the monthly number of dengue fever(DF) cases and possible risk factors in Guangzhou, a subtropical city of China. METHODS: The monthly number of DF cases, Breteau Index (BI), and meteorological measures during 2006-2014 recorded in Guangzhou, China, were assessed. A negative binomial regression model was used to evaluate the relationships between BI, meteorological factors, and the monthly number of DF cases. RESULTS: A total of 39,697 DF cases were detected in Guangzhou during the study period. DF incidence presented an obvious seasonal pattern, with most cases occurring from June to November. The current month's BI, average temperature (Tave), previous month's minimum temperature (Tmin), and Tave were positively associated with DF incidence. A threshold of 18.25 °C was found in the relationship between the current month's Tmin and DF incidence. CONCLUSION: Mosquito density, Tave, and Tmin play a critical role in DF transmission in Guangzhou. These findings could be useful in the development of a DF early warning system and assist in effective control and prevention strategies in the DF epidemic.

Attitudinal changes toward control measures in live poultry markets among the general public and live poultry traders, Guangzhou, China, January-February, 2014.

Two sets of cross-sectional surveys were conducted among the general public and live poultry traders (LPTs) during January-February, 2014, to monitor attitudes toward human cases of avian influenza A(H7N9)-related control measures among these 2 parties in Guangzhou, China. We found generally high support for regular market rest days among the general public and LPTs, but only limited support for permanent central slaughtering of poultry. LPTs' support for relevant control measures declined after the citywide wet market closure.

[Evaluation on the risks of H5, H7 and H9 avian influenza infections in Guangzhou: using data from the 2006-2012 avian influenza surveillance program].

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the results of avian influenza surveillance program in Guangzhou from 2006 to 2012 and to evaluate the risk of infections with H5, H7 and H9 subtypes avian influenza viruses. METHODS: Avian influenza surveillance system in Guangzhou consisted five components:serum surveillance on occupational population, environmental specimen surveillance of avian influenza virus, avian flu emergency surveillance, influenza viruses surveillance on ILI patient and surveillance on pneumonia of unknown causes. Hemagglutination inhibition test was conducted to detect the antibodies against H5, H7 and H9 while RT-PCR was used to test the nucleic acid of H5, H7 and H9 viruses. RESULTS: From 2006 to 2012, 4103 serum specimens were collected from occupational populations and the overall positive rate of H5/H7/H9 antibodies was 3.82% . The antibody positive rates for H5, H7 and H9 were 0.22% ,0.00% and 3.70% respectively. 4 serum specimens for H5 and H9 simultaneously showed antibody positive. The positive rate of H9 among occupational populations(4.21%)appeared higher than that from the control population(2.16%). 2028 specimens were collected from poultry sites and 55 samples found positive for H5 nucleic acid (positive rate:2.71%), 14 samples positive for H9 nucleic acid (positive rate:0.69%), 5 specimens, simultaneously positive for H5 and H9 nucleic acids. However, none of the samples showing H7 nucleic acid positive. From 2006 to 2012, all the tested H5/H7/H9 virus were negative from the respiratory/serum specimens among those close contacts of patients or high risk groups through the avian flu emergency surveillance program,ILI patient influenza virus surveillance programs or pneumonia of unknown causes surveillance program. CONCLUSION: Contamination of H5/H9 avian influenza virus did exist in the poultry sites in Guangzhou, especially in the wet Markets. The H5/H9 avian influenza virus caused asymptomatic infection was proved to be existed within the population exposed to the poultry, suggesting that the poultry occupational population in Guangzhou was under the risk of avian influenza virus infection.