Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multi-model ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of different research groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naive baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-week horizon 3-5 times larger than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks. Significance StatementThis paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the US. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models, and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public health action.

COVID-19 reopening strategies at the county level in the face of uncertainty: Multiple Models for Outbreak Decision Support

Policymakers make decisions about COVID-19 management in the face of considerable uncertainty. We convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate reopening strategies for a mid-sized county in the United States, in a novel process designed to fully express scientific uncertainty while reducing linguistic uncertainty and cognitive biases. For the scenarios considered, the consensus from 17 distinct models was that a second outbreak will occur within 6 months of reopening, unless schools and non-essential workplaces remain closed. Up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening; non-essential business closures reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Intermediate reopening interventions identified no win-win situations; there was a trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures. Aggregate results captured twice the uncertainty of individual models, providing a more complete expression of risk for decision-making purposes.

Management strategies and prediction of COVID-19 by a fractional order generalized SEIR model

In this project, we study a class of fractional order generalized SEIR epidemic models. Based on the public data from Jan. 22th to May 15th, 2020, we reliably estimate key epidemic parameters and make predictions on the peak point and possible ending time for the target region. We analyze the current management strategy and predict the future implementation of different management strategies. Numerical simulations which support our analysis are also given.

AnaIysis of chemotherapy drug-induced Iiver injury in chiIdren with acute IymphobIastic Ieukemia based on RUCAM scaIe / 中华实用儿科临床杂志

Objective To analezk thk charactkristics of drug-induckd livkr injure( DIFI)in childrkn with acutk lemphoblastic lkuckmia(LFF),so as to improvk thk phesician＇s undkrstanding of chkmothkrape DIFI,and to guidk clinical rational drug usk. Methods Onk hundrkd and forte-thrkk casks with LFF diagnoskd in thk Dkpartmknt of Hk-matologe and Oncologe in thk Pirst Lffiliatkd Hospital of Yhkngzhou Rnivkrsite from Januare 2012 to Dkckmbkr 2016 wkrk analezkd rktrospkctivkle. Baskd on DIFI diagnostic critkria and thk ARCLM scalk,thk casks with a scork of ≥3 points wkrk considkrkd to havk chkmothkrape DIFI. Groupkd be gkndkr,agk,immunoteping,risc and stagk of chkmo-thkrape,thk incidknck of DIFI was comparkd. Thk situation aftkr DIFI prkvkntion was comparkd bktwkkn two groups which was groupkd according to whkthkr thk application of hkpatoprotkctivk drugs. ResuIts Onk hundrkd and kight ca-sks(75. 52﹪)had DIFI,66 casks(61. 11﹪)showkd clinical manifkstations of livkr injure,and 42 casks(38. 89﹪) had no clinical semptoms. Lmong all thk casks 57. 41﹪(62 casks)wkrk mild livkr damagk,25﹪(27 casks)wkrk modkratk livkr injure and 17. 59﹪(19 casks)wkrk skvkrk livkr damagk. Thk clinical tepks which wkrk hkpatockllular accounting for 79. 63﹪(86 casks),cholkstatic 7. 41﹪(8 casks)and mixkd 12. 96﹪(14 casks). Malk wkrk 80 casks (79. 21﹪)and fkmalk 28 casks(66. 67﹪),but thk incidknck of DIFI bktwkkn diffkrknt gkndkr group had no statistical diffkrknck(χ2 ﹦2. 524,P﹦0. 112). Skvknte-fivk casks(77. 32﹪)wkrk ＜7 ekars agk and 33 casks(71. 74﹪)≥7 ekars agk,and thk incidknck of DIFI bktwkkn 2 groups was not statisticalle diffkrknt(χ2 ﹦0. 526,P﹦0. 468). Thkrk was no significant diffkrknck in T-LFF(8 casks,61. 54﹪)and B-LFF(100 casks,76. 92﹪)( χ2 ﹦0. 795,P﹦0. 372). Thk incidknck had significant diffkrknck in diffkrknt risc(P﹦0. 002). Thk incidknck of DIFI bktwkkn thk middlk risc group(60 casks,88. 24﹪)and standard risc(21 casks,58. 33﹪)had statistical diffkrknck( P ＜0. 05 ). Thk incidknck of DIFI bktwkkn thk middlk risc group and skvkrk risc(27 casks,69. 23﹪)had statistical diffkrknck( P﹦0. 015). Thk incidknck was diffkrknt in diffkrknt stagks of chkmothkrape(P＜0. 05). Thk incidknck of DIFI in induckd stagk was diffkrknt comparkd to othkr stagks(P＜0. 05). ARCLM scork ＞8 points accountkd for 21 casks(19. 45﹪), 6-8 points accountkd for 59 casks(54. 63﹪)and 3 -5 points accountkd for 28 casks(25. 92﹪). Eighte -nink patiknts(92. 71﹪)wkrk kffkctivk in thk hkpatoprotkctivk group and 8 patiknts(66. 67﹪)in thk no hkpatoprotkctivk thkrape group. Thk diffkrknck bktwkkn thk 2 groups was statisticalle significant(χ2 ﹦5. 317,P﹦0. 021). ConcIusions Thk clinical semptoms of drug-induckd livkr injure in childrkn with LFF chkmothkrape ark lacc of spkcificite. Thke ark mainle charactkrizkd be mild livkr injure. Thk clinical tepk of hkpatic injure is common in hkpatockllular. Thk ARCLM scork was mostle 6 to 8. Thkrk is no rklationship bktwkkn thk incidknck in LFF and gkndkr,agk,tepk of lkuck-mia. Thk incidknck with modkratk risc tepk is highkr than that of thk standard and high-risc tepk. Thk incidknck in induction rkmission stagk is highkst. Lpplication of hkpatoprotkctivk drugs is bknkficial to DIFI prognosis.

Progress of Shwachman-Diamond syndrome / 中华实用儿科临床杂志

Shwachman - Diamond syndrome (SDS)is a rare autosomal recessive disorder,SDS is characte-rized by exocrine pancreatic dysfunction,bone marrow failure,skeletal abnormalities and various other organ dysfunc-tions,and predisposition to MDS and acute myelogenous ceukemia. The Shwachman - Bodian - Diamond syndrome (SBDS)gene located on chromosome 7q11,the common mutation type is 183_184 TA > CT and 258 + 2 T > C. The purpose of this document is to comprehensive analysis the relevant literatures,analyze its clinical characteristics,geno-type,diagnosis and treatment suggestions to improve the clinician knowledge of the disease.

The relationship among depression, anxiety, stress and addictive substance use behavior in 5 935 secondary vocational students / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective@#To investigate the relationship among depression, anxiety, stress and addictive substance use behavior in secondary vocational students.@*Methods@#Cluster sampling method and the Adolescent Health-related Behaviors Questionnaire were used to collect demographic characteristics, psychological symptoms, and addictive substance usage among 5 935 students in nine vocational schools in Chongqing, Zhaoqing, Ningbo, and Taiyuan. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the relationship between the addictive substance use behavior and psychological factors.@*Results@#The detection rates of depression, anxiety and stress were 46.5% (n=2 762), 58.7% (n=3 483), and 29.8% (n= 1 770), respectively. The prevalence of addictive substances was 74.8% (n=4 440), traditional drugs was 0.8% (n=50), new drugs was 2.8% (n=166), other addictive drugs was 4.1% (n=241). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that compared with the normal psychological states of secondary vocational students, the OR value of mild depression tendency alcohol and tobacco use behavior of secondary vocational students was 1.45; the OR values of mild anxiety, moderate anxiety, severe anxiety and very serious anxiety were 1.46, 1.46, 1.71, and 1.83, respectively; the traditional drugs use behaviors were 5.51, and 2.61, respectively, for the severe anxiety and very serious anxiety. Compared with the normal psychological state of secondary vocational students, the OR values of the severe anxiety and very severe anxiety were 2.56, and 2.66, respectively, for severe anxiety and very serious anxiety. Compared with normal psychological status of secondary vocational students, the OR values of mild, moderate, severe, and very severe anxiety were 2.14, 2.47, 2.39, and 3.45, respectively; all P values <0.05.@*Conclusion@#Anxiety and mild depression were risk factors of tobacco and alcohol use in secondary vocational students; severe and above anxiety were the risk factors of drug use in secondary vocational students; anxiety was the risk factor for other addictive drug use in secondary vocational students.

The negative effects of Trim34α on activation of luciferase reporter gene containing NF-κB promoter / 中华微生物学和免疫学杂志

Objective To investigate the effects of Trim34α on the activation of luciferase reporter gene containing NF-κB promoter induced by adaptor proteins TAB2. Methods The total RNA was isolated from HeLa cells. After amplification with RT-PCR, the target sequences were cloned into 5'-Flag-pcDNA3.1 (+) vector. The recombinant vector was confirmed by restriction enzyme digestion, colony PCR and sequencing. It was transfected into HEK293T cells to detected Trim34α expression by Western blot. Simultaneously, the effects of Trim34α on the NF-κB activation induced by TAB2 were determined by dual-luciferase reporter assay. Results Restriction enzyme digestion, colony PCR and sequencing confirmed the vector was constructed successfully, furthermore it expressed Trim34α protein in HEK293T cells. Moreover, trim34α could form high-molecular-weight oligomeric protein, and here we called it trimsome. Interestingly, dual-luciferase assay showed that Trim34α could effectively block TAB2-induced NF-κB activation. Conclusion Trim34α was involved in negative regulation of TAB2-induced NF-κB activation and could form high-molecular-weight oligomer.

One phase treatment of renal calculi accompanied with pyonephrosis by percutaneous nephrolithotripsy / 中华泌尿外科杂志

Objective To evaluate the method, clinical efficacy and safety of one phase treat-ment of renal calculi associated with pyonephrosis by percutaneous nephrolithotripsy(PCNL) by pneu-matic combined with ultrasonic lithotriptor. Methods Sixty-six cases of renal calculi accompanied with pyonephrosis were treated with PCNL. The renal calyx was punctured under ultrasound gui-dance, then the tract was dilated from F8 to F16 by peel-away vascular access sheathes. After the in-sertion of the flexible sheath, metallic dilator was inserted and the flexible sheath was pulled out. The tract was dilated by metallic sheath to F21 and the operation sheath and nephroseope were placed into working tract. EMS III LithoClast Master was used. Ultrasonic powered lithotriptor probe with suc-tion was used to clear the liquor puris and calculus fragments with low-pressure or no-pressure. The combined pneumatic and ultrasonic powered lithotriptor was used to break and clear the calculi. Re-salts Of the 66 cases, there was no bacteremia or pyaemia intraoperatively and postoperatively. And there was no other severe complication occurred intraoperatively. One phase PCNL was successfully completed in 60 cases. Other 4 cases had residual calculi less than 1.5 em in diameter and received ESWL to break the calculi, 2 cases had bigger residual calculi and accepted second PCNL 1 week after the first intervention. In the follow-up period, the 3 month post-operative serum Cr was 56-203 μmol/L with an average decrease of 40 μmol/L, GFR was 5.0-56.2 ml/min with an average increase of 23.6 ml/min compared with the pre-operative data. At 6 months postoperative serum Cr was 56-158 μmol/L with average decrease of 31 μmol/L, GFR was 5.0-79.2 ml/min with an average in-crease of 30.2 ml/min. Conclusion Application of PCNL in the treatment of patients with renal cal-culi accompanied with pyonephrosis is safe, cost-effective and clinically efficient by pneumatic com-bined with ultrasonic lithotriptor.

Establishment of a real-time fluorescence quantitative RT-PCR for measurement of t-PA mRNA expression in endothelial cells / 中国药理学通报

0.990).The intra-assay and inter-assay variation of the method was 3.10 % and 4.93 %,respectively.The all-trans ratinoic acid(ATRA) up-regulated t-PA mRNA expression in a dose-dependent manner(1.25~20.00 ?mol?L~(-1),P