Using Intensive Longitudinal Data to Identify Early Predictors of Suicide-Related Outcomes in High-Risk Adolescents: Practical and Conceptual Considerations.

Mobile technology offers new possibilities for assessing suicidal ideation and behavior in real- or near-real-time. It remains unclear how intensive longitudinal data can be used to identify proximal risk and inform clinical decision making. In this study of adolescent psychiatric inpatients (N = 32, aged 13-17 years, 75% female), we illustrate the application of a three-step process to identify early signs of suicide-related crises using daily diaries. Using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses, we considered the utility of 12 features-constructed using means and variances of daily ratings for six risk factors over the first 2 weeks postdischarge (observations = 360)-in identifying a suicidal crisis 2 weeks later. Models derived from single risk factors had modest predictive accuracy (area under the ROC curve [AUC] 0.46-0.80) while nearly all models derived from combinations of risk factors produced higher accuracy (AUCs 0.80-0.91). Based on this illustration, we discuss implications for clinical decision making and future research.

SMART longitudinal analysis: A tutorial for using repeated outcome measures from SMART studies to compare adaptive interventions.

In recent years, there has been increased interest in the development of adaptive interventions across various domains of health and psychological research. An adaptive intervention is a protocolized sequence of individualized treatments that seeks to address the unique and changing needs of individuals as they progress through an intervention program. The sequential, multiple assignment, randomized trial (SMART) is an experimental study design that can be used to build the empirical basis for the construction of effective adaptive interventions. A SMART involves multiple stages of randomizations; each stage of randomization is designed to address scientific questions concerning the best intervention option to employ at that point in the intervention. Several adaptive interventions are embedded in a SMART by design; many SMARTs are motivated by scientific questions that concern the comparison of these embedded adaptive interventions. Until recently, analysis methods available for the comparison of adaptive interventions were limited to end-of-study outcomes. The current article provides an accessible and comprehensive tutorial to a new methodology for using repeated outcome data from SMART studies to compare adaptive interventions. We discuss how existing methods for comparing adaptive interventions in terms of end-of-study outcome data from a SMART can be extended for use with longitudinal outcome data. We also highlight the scientific utility of using longitudinal data from a SMART to compare adaptive interventions. A SMART study aiming to develop an adaptive intervention to engage alcohol- and cocaine-dependent individuals in treatment is used to demonstrate the application of this new methodology. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

A Data Analysis Method for Using Longitudinal Binary Outcome Data from a SMART to Compare Adaptive Interventions.

Sequential multiple assignment randomized trials (SMARTs) are a useful and increasingly popular approach for gathering information to inform the construction of adaptive interventions to treat psychological and behavioral health conditions. Until recently, analysis methods for data from SMART designs considered only a single measurement of the outcome of interest when comparing the efficacy of adaptive interventions. Lu et al. proposed a method for considering repeated outcome measurements to incorporate information about the longitudinal trajectory of change. While their proposed method can be applied to many kinds of outcome variables, they focused mainly on linear models for normally distributed outcomes. Practical guidelines and extensions are required to implement this methodology with other types of repeated outcome measures common in behavioral research. In this article, we discuss implementation of this method with repeated binary outcomes. We explain how to compare adaptive interventions in terms of various summaries of repeated binary outcome measures, including average outcome (area under the curve) and delayed effects. The method is illustrated using an empirical example from a SMART study to develop an adaptive intervention for engaging alcohol- and cocaine-dependent patients in treatment. Monte Carlo simulations are provided to demonstrate the good performance of the proposed technique.