Inferring the true number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Japan.

INTRODUCTION: In Japan, as of December 31, 2021, more than 1.73 million laboratory-confirmed cases have been reported. However, the actual number of infections is likely to be under-ascertained due to the epidemiological characteristics such as mild and subclinical infections and limited testing availability in the early days of the pandemic. In this study, we infer the true number of infections in Japan between January 16, 2020, and December 31, 2021, using a statistical modelling framework that combines data on reported cases and fatalities. METHODS: We used reported COVID-19 deaths and age-specific infection fatality ratios (IFR) to impute the true number of infections. Estimates of IFR were informed from published studies and were adjusted to reflect the effects of pharmaceutical interventions, mass vaccination, and evolving variants. To account for the uncertainty in IFR, we sampled values from relevant distributions. RESULTS: We estimated that as of December 31, 2021, 3.07 million (CrI: 2.05-4.24 million) people had been infected in Japan, which is 1.77 times higher than the 1.73 million reported cases. Our meta-analysis confirmed that these findings were consistent with the intermittent seroprevalence studies conducted in Japan. CONCLUSIONS: We have estimated that a substantial number of COVID-19 infections in Japan were unreported, particularly in adults. Our approach provides a more realistic assessment of the true underlying burden of COVID-19. The results of this study can be used as fundamental components to strengthen population health control and surveillance measures.

Neural correlates of working memory and compensation at different stages of cognitive impairment in Parkinson's disease.

Working memory (WM) impairment is one of the most frequent cognitive deficits in Parkinson's disease (PD). However, it is not known how neural activity is altered and compensatory responses eventually fail during progression. We aimed to elucidate neural correlates of WM and compensatory mechanisms in PD. Eighteen cognitively normal PD patients (PD-CogNL), 16 with PD with mild cognitive impairment (PD-MCI), 11 with PD with dementia (PDD), and 17 healthy controls (HCs) were evaluated. Subjects performed an n-back task. Functional MRI data were analyzed by event-related analysis for correct responses. Brain activations were evaluated by comparing them to fixation cross or 0-back task, and correlated with n-back task performance. When compared to fixation cross, PD-CogNL patients had more activation in WM areas than HCs for both the 2- and 3-back tasks. PD-MCI and PDD patients had more activation in WM areas than HCs for the 0- and 1-back task. 2-back task performance was correlated with brain activations (vs. 0-back task) in the bilateral dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and frontal eye field (FEF) and left rostral prefrontal cortex, caudate nucleus, inferior/superior parietal lobule (IPL/SPL), and anterior insular cortex as well as anterior cingulate cortex. 3-back task performance was correlated with brain activations (vs. 0-back task) in the left FEF, right caudate nucleus, and bilateral IPL/SPL. Additional activations on top of the 0-back task, rather than fixation cross, are the neural correlates of WM. Our results suggest PD patients have two types of compensatory mechanisms: (1) Hyperactivation for different WM load tasks depending on their cognitive status. PD-CogNL have hyperactivation for moderate and heavy working memory load tasks while maintaining normal working memory performance. In contrast, PD-MCI and PDD have hyperactivation for control task and light working memory load task, leaving less neural resources to further activate for more demanding tasks and resulting in impaired working memory performance. (2) Bilateral recruitment of WM-related areas, in particular the DLPFC, FEF, IPL/SPL and caudate nucleus, to improve WM performance.