A nomogram predictive model for long-term survival in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage patients without cerebral herniation at admission.

Stratification of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) patients without cerebral herniation at admission, to determine the subgroups may be suffered from poor outcomes or benefit from surgery, is important for following treatment decision. The aim of this study was to establish and verify a de novo nomogram predictive model for long-term survival in sICH patients without cerebral herniation at admission. This study recruited sICH patients from our prospectively maintained ICH patient database (RIS-MIS-ICH, ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03862729) between January 2015 and October 2019. All eligible patients were randomly classified into a training cohort and a validation cohort according to the ratio of 7:3. The baseline variables and long-term survival outcomes were collected. And the long-term survival information of all the enrolled sICH patients, including the occurrence of death and overall survival. Follow-up time was defined as the time from the onset to death of the patient or the last clinical visit. The nomogram predictive model was established based on the independent risk factors at admission for long-term survival after hemorrhage. The concordance index (C-index) and ROC curve were used to evaluate the accuracy of the predictive model. Discrimination and calibration were used to validate the nomogram in both the training cohort and the validation cohort. A total of 692 eligible sICH patients were enrolled. During the average follow-up time of 41.77 ± 0.85 months, a total of 178 (25.7%) patients died. The Cox Proportional Hazard Models showed that age (HR 1.055, 95% CI 1.038-1.071, P < 0.001), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) at admission (HR 2.496, 95% CI 2.014-3.093, P < 0.001) and hydrocephalus caused by intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) (HR 1.955, 95% CI 1.362-2.806, P < 0.001) were independent risk factors. The C index of the admission model was 0.76 and 0.78 in the training cohort and validation cohort, respectively. In the ROC analysis, the AUC was 0.80 (95% CI 0.75-0.85) in the training cohort and was 0.80 (95% CI 0.72-0.88) in the validation cohort. SICH patients with admission nomogram scores greater than 87.75 were at high risk of short survival time. For sICH patients without cerebral herniation at admission, our de novo nomogram model based on age, GCS and hydrocephalus on CT may be useful to stratify the long-term survival outcomes and provide suggestions for treatment decision-making.

Optimal Timing of Cranioplasty and Predictors of Overall Complications After Cranioplasty: The Impact of Brain Collapse.

BACKGROUND: The optimal timing of cranioplasty (CP) and predictors of overall postoperative complications are still controversial. OBJECTIVE: To determine the optimal timing of CP. METHODS: Patients were divided into collapsed group and noncollapsed group based on brain collapse or not, respectively. Brain collapse volume was calculated in a 3-dimensional way. The primary outcomes were overall complications and outcomes at the 12-month follow-up after CP. RESULTS: Of the 102 patients in this retrospective observation cohort study, 56 were in the collapsed group, and 46 were in the noncollapsed group. Complications were noted in 30.4% (n = 31), 24 (42.9%) patients in the collapsed group and 7 (15.2%) patients in the noncollapsed group, with a significant difference ( P = .003). Thirty-three (58.9%) patients had good outcomes (modified Rankin Scale 0-3) in the collapsed group, and 34 (73.9%) patients had good outcomes in the noncollapsed group without a statistically significant difference ( P = .113). Brain collapse ( P = .005) and Karnofsky Performance Status score at the time of CP ( P = .025) were significantly associated with overall postoperative complications. The cut-off value for brain collapse volume was determined as 11.26 cm 3 in the receiver operating characteristic curve. The DC-CP interval was not related to brain collapse volume or postoperative complications. CONCLUSION: Brain collapse and lower Karnofsky Performance Status score at the time of CP were independent predictors of overall complications after CP. The optimal timing of CP may be determined by tissue window based on brain collapse volume instead of time window based on the decompressive craniectomy-CP interval.

Quantitative hematoma heterogeneity associated with hematoma growth in patients with early intracerebral hemorrhage.

Background: Early hematoma growth is associated with poor functional outcomes in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We aimed to explore whether quantitative hematoma heterogeneity in non-contrast computed tomography (NCCT) can predict early hematoma growth. Methods: We used data from the Risk Stratification and Minimally Invasive Surgery in Acute Intracerebral Hemorrhage (Risa-MIS-ICH) trial. Our study included patients with ICH with a time to baseline NCCT <12 h and a follow-up CT duration <72 h. To get a Hounsfield unit histogram and the coefficient of variation (CV) of Hounsfield units (HUs), the hematoma was segmented by software using the auto-segmentation function. Quantitative hematoma heterogeneity is represented by the CV of hematoma HUs. Multivariate logistic regression was utilized to determine hematoma growth parameters. The discriminant score predictive value was assessed using the area under the ROC curve (AUC). The best cutoff was determined using ROC curves. Hematoma growth was defined as a follow-up CT hematoma volume increase of >6 mL or a hematoma volume increase of 33% compared with the baseline NCCT. Results: A total of 158 patients were enrolled in the study, of which 31 (19.6%) had hematoma growth. The multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that time to initial baseline CT (P = 0.040, odds ratio [OR]: 0.824, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.686-0.991), "heterogeneous" in the density category (P = 0.027, odds ratio [OR]: 5.950, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.228-28.828), and CV of hematoma HUs (P = 0.018, OR: 1.301, 95 % CI: 1.047-1.617) were independent predictors of hematoma growth. By evaluating the receiver operating characteristic curve, the CV of hematoma HUs (AUC = 0.750) has a superior predictive value for hematoma growth than for heterogeneous density (AUC = 0.638). The CV of hematoma HUs had an 18% cutoff, with a specificity of 81.9 % and a sensitivity of 58.1 %. Conclusion: The CV of hematoma HUs can serve as a quantitative hematoma heterogeneity index that predicts hematoma growth in patients with early ICH independently.

Early Predictors of the Increase in Perihematomal Edema Volume After Intracerebral Hemorrhage: A Retrospective Analysis From the Risa-MIS-ICH Study.

Background and Purpose: Perihematomal edema (PHE) is associated with poor functional outcomes after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Early identification of risk factors associated with PHE growth may allow for targeted therapeutic interventions. Methods: We used data contained in the risk stratification and minimally invasive surgery in acute intracerebral hemorrhage (Risa-MIS-ICH) patients: a prospective multicenter cohort study. Patients' clinical, laboratory, and radiological data within 24 h of admission were obtained from their medical records. The absolute increase in PHE volume from baseline to day 3 was defined as iPHE volume. Poor outcome was defined as modified Rankin Scale (mRS) of 4 to 6 at 90 days. Binary logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between iPHE volume and poor outcome. The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to find the best cutoff. Linear regression was used to identify variables associated with iPHE volume (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03862729). Results: One hundred ninety-seven patients were included in this study. iPHE volume was significantly associated with poor outcome [P = 0.003, odds ratio (OR) 1.049, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.016-1.082] after adjustment for hematoma volume. The best cutoff point of iPHE volume was 7.98 mL with a specificity of 71.4% and a sensitivity of 47.5%. Diabetes mellitus (P = 0.043, ß = 7.66 95% CI 0.26-15.07), black hole sign (P = 0.002, ß = 18.93 95% CI 6.84-31.02), and initial ICH volume (P = 0.018, ß = 0.20 95% CI 0.03-0.37) were significantly associated with iPHE volume. After adjusting for hematoma expansion, the black hole sign could still independently predict the increase of PHE (P < 0.001, ß = 21.62 95% CI 10.10-33.15). Conclusions: An increase of PHE volume >7.98 mL from baseline to day 3 may lead to poor outcome. Patients with diabetes mellitus, black hole sign, and large initial hematoma volume result in more PHE growth, which should garner attention in the treatment.