Lifetime Health and Economic Burden of Invasive Pneumococcal Diseases Attributable to V116 Serotypes Among Adults in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to estimate and compare the lifetime clinical and economic burden of invasive pneumococcal diseases (IPD) attributable to the serotypes contained in a new 21-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (V116) vs. the 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV20) among adults aged 18 years and above in the USA. METHODS: A state-transition Markov model was used to track IPD cases and deaths as well as the associated direct medical costs (in 2023 US dollars) from a US healthcare payer perspective at 3% annual discount rate. The results were summarized for V116, PCV20, and eight unique serotypes contained in V116. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the most influential inputs on the overall total direct lifetime cost. RESULTS: For the total population of US adults aged 18 years and above in 2021 (approx. 258 million residents), the estimated lifetime numbers of cases of IPD, post-meningitis sequelae (PMS), and IPD-related deaths attributable to the serotypes contained in V116 were approximately 1.4 million, 17,608, and 186,200, respectively, with a total discounted lifetime direct cost of $32.6 billion. A substantial proportion (approx. 31%) of those were attributable to the unique eight serotypes. The corresponding estimates for PCV20 were approximately 35% lower-934,000, 11,500, and 120,000, respectively-with a total discounted direct lifetime cost of $21.9 billion. CONCLUSION: These results show that V116 serotypes (compared to PCV20) are associated with substantially higher clinical and economic burden of IPD. The addition of V116 to vaccination recommendations can help to reduce the residual burden of IPD in US adults.

Cost and health impact analysis of herpes zoster vaccination in Norway.

BACKGROUND: A decision analytic model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a national vaccination program against herpes zoster in Norway. METHODS: The model analyzed six vaccination scenarios that included the live-attenuated zoster vaccine under different target ages of vaccination (60, 65, and 70 years) compared with no vaccination. A catch-up program implemented in the first year of the vaccination was included in three of the scenarios. The model followed the population of Norway over a 40-year time horizon to estimate costs and outcomes associated with vaccination. Immunization costs, costs related to herpes zoster (both healthcare sector and non-healthcasre sector), the quality of life gains due to avoided cases of herpes zoster, and quality-of-life losses due to vaccine-related adverse events were estimated. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: A national vaccination program would result in reduction of the number of herpes zoster cases and decreased burden of illness. Vaccinating adults at 65 years of age with catch-up up to 70 years in the first year of the program was the most cost-effective strategy with the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained at NOK (Norwegian Krone) 245,459 from the societal perspective and NOK 248,637 from the health care system perspective.

Trends in Characteristics of Patients Listed for Liver Transplantation Will Lead to Higher Rates of Waitlist Removal Due to Clinical Deterioration.

BACKGROUND: Changes in the epidemiology of end-stage liver disease may lead to increased risk of dropout from the liver transplant waitlist. Anticipating the future of liver transplant waitlist characteristics is vital when considering organ allocation policy. METHODS: We performed a discrete event simulation to forecast patient characteristics and rate of waitlist dropout. Estimates were simulated from 2015 to 2025. The model was informed by data from the Organ Procurement and Transplant Network, 2003 to 2014. National data are estimated along with forecasts for 2 regions. RESULTS: Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis will increase from 18% of waitlist additions to 22% by 2025. Hepatitis C will fall from 30% to 21%. Listings over age 60 years will increase from 36% to 48%. The hazard of dropout will increase from 41% to 46% nationally. Wait times for transplant for patients listed with a Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) between 22 and 27 will double. Region 5, which transplants at relatively higher MELD scores, will experience an increase from 53% to 64% waitlist dropout. Region 11, which transplants at lower MELD scores, will have an increase in waitlist dropout from 30% to 44%. CONCLUSIONS: The liver transplant waitlist size will remain static over the next decade due to patient dropout. Liver transplant candidates will be older, more likely to have nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and will wait for transplantation longer even when listed at a competitive MELD score. There will continue to be significant heterogeneity among transplant regions where some patients will be more likely to drop out of the waitlist than receive a transplant.

Changes in cigarette smoking initiation, cessation, and relapse among U.S. adults: a comparison of two longitudinal samples.

BACKGROUND: The tobacco epidemic in the U.S. has matured in the past decade. However, due to rapidly changing social policy and commercial environments, tailored prevention and interventions are needed to support further reduction in smoking. METHODS: Using Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS) 2002-2003 and 2010-2011 longitudinal cohorts, five smoking states are defined including daily-heavy, daily-light, non-daily, former and non-smoker. We quantified the changes between smoking states for the two longitudinal cohorts, and used a series of multivariable logistic regression models to examine the association of socio-demographic attributes and initial smoking states on smoking initiation, cessation, and relapse between waves within each cohort. RESULTS: The prevalence of adult heavy smoking decreased from 9.9% (95% CI: 9.6%, 10.2%) in 2002 to 7.1% (95% CI: 6.9%, 7.4%) in 2010. Non-daily smokers were less likely to quit in the 2010-2011 cohort than the 2002-2003 cohort (37.0% vs. 44.9%). Gender, age group, smoker type, race and marital status exhibit similar patterns in terms of their association to the odds of initiation, cessation and relapse between the two cohorts, while education groups showed some inconsistent results between the two cohorts regarding the odds of cessation. CONCLUSIONS: Transitions between smoking states are complex and increasingly unstable, requiring a holistic, population-based perspective to understand the stocks and flows that ultimately dictate the public health impact of cigarette smoking behavior. This knowledge helps to identify groups in need of increased tobacco control prevention and intervention efforts.