A Bayesian spatio-temporal model of COVID-19 spread in England.

Exploring the spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19 transmission and its potential determinants could provide a deeper understanding of the dynamics of disease spread. This study aimed to investigate the spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19 infections in England, and examine its associations with socioeconomic, demographic and environmental risk factors. We obtained weekly reported COVID-19 cases from 7 March 2020 to 26 March 2022 at Middle Layer Super Output Area (MSOA) level in mainland England from publicly available datasets. With these data, we conducted an ecological study to predict the COVID-19 infection risk and identify its associations with socioeconomic, demographic and environmental risk factors using a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model. The Bayesian model outperformed the ordinary least squares model and geographically weighted regression model in terms of prediction accuracy. The spread of COVID-19 infections over space and time was heterogeneous. Hotspots of infection risk exhibited inconsistent clustering patterns over time. Risk factors found to be positively associated with COVID-19 infection risk were: annual household income [relative risk (RR) = 1.0008, 95% Credible Interval (CI) 1.0005-1.0012], unemployment rate [RR = 1.0027, 95% CI 1.0024-1.0030], population density on the log scale [RR = 1.0146, 95% CI 1.0129-1.0164], percentage of Caribbean population [RR = 1.0022, 95% CI 1.0009-1.0036], percentage of adults aged 45-64 years old [RR = 1.0031, 95% CI 1.0024-1.0039], and particulate matter ( PM 2.5 ) concentrations [RR = 1.0126, 95% CI 1.0083-1.0167]. The study highlights the importance of considering socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors in analysing the spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19 infections in England. The findings could assist policymakers in developing tailored public health interventions at a localised level.

Analyzing the expression and clinical significance of CENPE in gastric cancer.

BACKGROUND: Gastric cancer (GC) is a prevalent type of malignant gastrointestinal tumor. Many studies have shown that CENPE acts as an oncogene in some cancers. However, its expression level and clinical value in GC are not clear. METHODS: Obtaining clinical data information on gastric adenocarcinoma from TCGA and GEO databases. The gene expression profiling interaction analysis (GEPIA) was used to evaluate the relationship between prognosis and CENPE expression in gastric cancer patients. Utilizing the UALCAN platform, the correlation between CENPE expression and clinical parameters was examined. Functions and signaling pathways of CENPE were analyzed using the Gene Ontology (GO), the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG), and Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA). The association between immunological infiltrating cells and CENPE expression was examined using TIMER2.0. Validation was performed by real-time quantitative PCR (qPT-PCR) and immunohistochemical analysis. RESULTS: According to the analysis of the GEPIA database, the expression of CENPE is increased in gastric cancer tissues compared to normal tissues. It was also found to have an important relationship with the prognosis of the patient (p<0.05). The prognosis was worse and overall survival was lower in individuals with increased expression of CENPE. In line with the findings of the GEPIA, real-time fluorescence quantitative PCR (qPT-PCR) confirmed that CENPE was overexpressed in gastric cancer cells. Furthermore, It was discovered that H. pylori infection status and tumor grade were related to CENPE expression. Enrichment analysis revealed that CENPE expression was linked to multiple biological functions and tumor-associated pathways. CENPE expression also correlated with immune-infiltrating cells in the gastric cancer microenvironment and was positively connected to NK cells and mast cells. According to immunohistochemical examination, paracancerous tissues had minimal expression of CENPE, but gastric cancer showed significant expression of the protein. CONCLUSIONS: According to our findings, CENPE is substantially expressed in GC and may perhaps contribute to its growth. CENPE might be a target for gastric cancer therapy and a predictor of a bad prognosis.

Effects of continuous intravenous infusion with propofol on intestinal metabolites in rats.

Microbial metabolites play an important role in regulating intestinal homeostasis and immune responses. Propofol is a common anesthetic in clinic, but it is not clear whether it affects intestinal metabolites in rats. Tail vein puncture was performed after adaptive feeding for 1 month in eight 2-month-old rats and they were given continuous intravenous infusion of propofol for 3 h. The feces of rats were divided into different groups based on time periods, with before and after anesthesia with propofol on days 1, 3 and 7 labeled as groups P, A1, A3 and A7, respectively. The effect of continuous intravenous infusion with propofol on rat fecal metabolites was determined using the non-targeted metabolomics technique gas chromatography coupled with a time-of-flight mass spectrometer analysis. The types and contents of metabolites in rat feces were changed after continuous intravenous infusion with propofol, but the changes were not statistically significant. The contents of the metabolites 3-hydroxyphenylacetic acid and palmitic acid increased from day 3 to 7, and it was shown that the two metabolites were positively correlated at a statistically significant level. Linoleic acid decreased to its lowest level on day 3, and it returned to pre-anesthesia level on day 7. At the same time, linoleic acid metabolism was a metabolic pathway that was co-enriched 7 days after infusion with propofol. Spearman correlation analysis showed that there was significant correlation between some differential metabolites and differential microorganisms. It was observed that zymosterol 1, cytosin and elaidic acid were negatively correlated with Alloprevotella in the A3 vs. P group. In the A7 vs. P group, cortexolone 3 and coprostan-3-one were positively correlated with Faecalibacterium, whilst aconitic acid was negatively correlated with it. In conclusion, the present study revealed statistically insignificant effects of continuous intravenous propofol on the intestinal metabolites in rats.

Effect of pulmonary regurgitation on cardiac functions based on a human bi-ventricle model.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Assessing the severity of pulmonary regurgitation (PR) and identifying optimal clinically relevant indicators for its treatment is crucial, yet standards for quantifying PR remain unclear in clinical practice. Computational modelling of the heart is in the process of providing valuable insights and information for cardiovascular physiology research. However, the advancements of finite element computational models have not been widely applied to simulate cardiac outputs in patients with PR. Furthermore, a computational model that incorporates both the left ventricle (LV) and right ventricle (RV) can be valuable in assessing the relationship between left and right ventricular morphometry and septal motion in PR patients. To enhance our understanding of the effect of PR on cardiac functions and mechanical behaviour, we developed a human bi-ventricle model to simulate five cases with varying degrees of PR severity. METHODS: This bi-ventricle model was built using a patient-specific geometry and a widely used myofibre architecture. The myocardial material properties were described by a hyperelastic passive constitutive law and a modified time-varying elastance active tension model. To simulate realistic cardiac functions and the dysfunction of the pulmonary valve in PR disease cases, open-loop lumped parameter models representing systemic and pulmonary circulatory systems were designed. RESULTS: In the baseline case, pressures in the aorta and main pulmonary artery and ejection fractions of both the LV and RV were within normal physiological ranges reported in the literature. The end-diastolic volume (EDV) of the RV under varying degrees of PR was comparable to the reported cardiac magnetic resonance imaging data. Moreover, RV dilation and interventricular septum motion from the baseline to the PR cases were clearly observed through the long-axis and short-axis views of the bi-ventricle geometry. The RV EDV in the severe PR case increased by 50.3% compared to the baseline case, while the LV EDV decreased by 18.1%. The motion of the interventricular septum was consistent with the literature. Furthermore, ejection fractions of both the LV and RV decreased as PR became severe, with LV ejection fraction decreasing from 60.5% at baseline to 56.3% in the severe case and RV ejection fraction decreasing from 51.8% to 46.8%. Additionally, the average myofibre stress of the RV wall at end-diastole significantly increased due to PR, from 2.7±12.1 kPa at baseline to 10.9±26.5 kPa in the severe case. The average myofibre stress of the LV wall at end-diastole increased from 3.7±18.1 kPa to 4.3±20.3 kPa. CONCLUSIONS: This study established a foundation for the computational modelling of PR. The simulated results showed that severe PR leads to reduced cardiac outputs in both the LV and RV, clearly observable septum motion, and a significant increase in the average myofibre stress in the RV wall. These findings demonstrate the potential of the model for further exploration of PR.

Preoperative intestinal microbiome and metabolome in elderly patients with delayed neurocognitive recovery.

BACKGROUND: Delayed neurocognitive recovery (dNCR) is a common complication of the central nervous system in elderly patients. Currently, it is not clear whether the occurrence of dNCR is associated with the intestinal microbiota and its related metabolites. This study investigated the preoperative intestinal microflora and faecal metabolites of dNCR patients. METHODS: Twenty-two elderly urological patients were divided into a dNCR group (D group) and a non-dNCR group (ND group) according to the postoperative Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score on the first and third day after surgery. A postoperative MMSE score ≤ 2 points compared with the preoperative score was considered evidence of dNCR. We used a comprehensive method that combined 16S rRNA gene sequencing and untargeted metabolomics to study the preoperative intestinal microflora and faecal metabolites of the two groups, and conducted correlation analysis between them. RESULTS: Compared with the D group, the microbial community in the ND group was more abundant. At the family level, the ND group was significantly enriched in Lachnospiraceae, Peptostreptococcaceae and Muribaculaceae. At the genus level, the faecal microbiota of the ND group was differentially enriched in Agathobacter, Dorea, Fusicatenibacter, Coprococcus_2 and Romboutsia while that of the D group was differentially enriched in Anaerofilum. Untargeted metabolomics revealed significant differences in eight different metabolites between the two groups, including ribose, ethanol, leucine, maltose, pentadecanoic acid, malonic acid 1,3,4-dihydroxybenzoic acid and 3-hydroxypalmitic acid. In addition, differential metabolites were associated with the abundance of specific bacteria. CONCLUSIONS: The occurrence of dNCR may be associated with the intestinal flora and its related metabolite composition of patients before surgery.

Spatio-temporal disease risk estimation using clustering-based adjacency modelling.

Conditional autoregressive models are typically used to capture the spatial autocorrelation present in areal unit disease count data when estimating the spatial pattern in disease risk. This correlation is represented by a binary neighbourhood matrix based on a border sharing specification, which enforces spatial correlation between geographically neighbouring areas. However, enforcing such correlation will mask any discontinuities in the disease risk surface, thus impeding the detection of clusters of areas that exhibit higher or lower risks compared to their neighbours. Here we propose novel methodology to account for these clusters and discontinuities in disease risk via a two-stage modelling approach, which either forces the clusters/discontinuities to be the same for all time periods or allows them to evolve dynamically over time. Stage one constructs a set of candidate neighbourhood matrices to represent a range of possible cluster/discontinuity structures in the data, and stage two estimates an appropriate structure(s) by treating the neighbourhood matrix as an additional parameter to estimate within a Bayesian spatio-temporal disease mapping model. The effectiveness of our novel methodology is evidenced by simulation, before being applied to a new study of respiratory disease risk in Greater Glasgow, Scotland from 2011 to 2017.

[Assessment of left ventricle volume filling curve with magnetic resonance imaging: a preliminary study].

OBJECTIVE: To conduct a preliminary study on the reliability of left ventricle volume filling curve through the commercial medical program Report-Card 4.0. METHODS: A total pf 22 normal volunteers underwent the examination. Images of standard 2-chamber view and short-axis view were acquired at end-expiration by electrocardiography-gated FIESTA CINE sequence. Then one experienced doctor manually contoured the endocardium during end-systole and end-diastole phases respectively, obtained the results of the volume of end-diastole (EDV) and end-systole (ESV), ejection fraction (EF), stroke volume (SV) and cardiac output (CO), processing time and mean processing time per phase. Papillary muscle was not included into left ventricle volume. Another two observers utilized LV ANALYSIS of Report-Card, generated the left ventricle volume filling curve and recorded the processing time and mean processing time per phase. From the curve, EDV, ESV, SV, EF, CO, peak ejecting rate (PER) and peak filling rate (PFR) were also acquired. One observer repeated the procedures a week later. RESULTS: The difference of results from two methods were insignificant (P > 0.05) and the correlation was excellent (EDV 0.963, ESV 0.944). Intra-observer and inter-observer variability for measurements (EDV, ESV) were assessed by Bland-Altman analysis and interclass correlation coefficient (0.985, 0.987, 0.959 and 0.957 respectively). The mean processing time (179 ± 51) s by means of manually contouring was significantly less than the mean processing time (331 ± 99) s through REPORT-CARD 4.0 (P < 0.001). However, the mean processing time per phase (17 ± 5) s by means of REPORT-CARD 4.0 was significantly less than the mean processing time per phase (89 ± 26) s through manually contouring (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The reliability of left ventricle volume filling curve generated through Report-Card is excellent. Left ventricle volume filling curve may be a reliable method of further studying the functions of left ventricle.