Risk and Factors associated with disease manifestations in systemic lupus erythematosus - lupus nephritis (RIFLE-LN): a ten-year risk prediction strategy derived from a cohort of 1652 patients.

Objectives: Lupus nephritis (LN) remains one of the most severe manifestations in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Onset and overall LN risk among SLE patients remains considerably difficult to predict. Utilizing a territory-wide longitudinal cohort of over 10 years serial follow-up data, we developed and validated a risk stratification strategy to predict LN risk among Chinese SLE patients - Risk and Factors associated with disease manifestations in systemic Lupus Erythematosus - Lupus Nephritis (RIFLE-LN). Methods: Demographic and longitudinal data including autoantibody profiles, clinical manifestations, major organ involvement, LN biopsy results and outcomes were documented. Association analysis was performed to identify factors associated with LN. Regression modelling was used to develop a prediction model for 10-year risk of LN and thereafter validated. Results: A total of 1652 patients were recruited: 1382 patients were assigned for training and validation of the RIFLE-LN model; while 270 were assigned for testing. The median follow-up duration was 21 years. In the training and validation cohort, 845 (61%) of SLE patients developed LN. Cox regression and log rank test showed significant positive association between male sex, age of SLE onset and anti-dsDNA positivity. These factors were thereafter used to develop RIFLE-LN. The algorithm was tested in 270 independent patients and showed good performance (AUC = 0·70). Conclusion: By using male sex, anti-dsDNA positivity, age of SLE onset and SLE duration; RIFLE-LN can predict LN among Chinese SLE patients with good performance. We advocate its potential utility in guiding clinical management and disease monitoring. Further validation studies in independent cohorts are required.

Serum syndecan-1, hyaluronan and thrombomodulin levels in patients with lupus nephritis.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated circulating syndecan-1, HA and thrombomodulin levels in patients with biopsy-proven Class III/IV ± V LN and their clinico-pathological associations. Patients with non-renal SLE or non-lupus chronic kidney disease, and healthy subjects served as controls. METHODS: Serum syndecan-1, HA and thrombomodulin levels were determined by ELISAs. RESULTS: Syndecan-1, HA and thrombomodulin levels were significantly higher during active LN compared with remission (P < 0.01, for all), and correlated with the level of proteinuria, estimated glomerular filtration rate, anti-dsDNA antibodies, complement 3 and serum creatinine. Longitudinal studies showed that syndecan-1 and thrombomodulin levels increased prior to clinical renal flare by 3.6 months, while HA level increased at the time of nephritic flare, and the levels decreased in parallel with treatment response. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that syndecan-1 and thrombomodulin levels distinguished patients with active LN from healthy subjects, LN patients in remission, patients with active non-renal lupus and patients with non-lupus chronic kidney disease (receiver operating characteristic area under curve of 0.98, 0.91, 0.82 and 0.95, respectively, for syndecan-1; and area under curve of 1.00, 0.84, 0.97 and 0.79, respectively, for thrombomodulin). HA level distinguished active LN from healthy subjects, LN patients in remission and non-lupus chronic kidney disease (receiver operating characteristic area under curve of 0.82, 0.71 and 0.90, respectively) but did not distinguish between renal vs non-renal lupus. Syndecan-1 and thrombomodulin levels correlated with the severity of interstitial inflammation, while HA level correlated with chronicity grading in kidney biopsies of active LN. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest potential utility of serum syndecan-1, thrombomodulin and HA levels in clinical management, and their potential contribution to LN pathogenesis.

Effect of raloxifene on disease activity and vascular biomarkers in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: subgroup analysis of a double-blind randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to identify the effect of raloxifene on disease activity and vascular biomarkers in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS: Subgroup data were analyzed for postmenopausal female SLE patients who participated in a randomized controlled trial of raloxifene on glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis. Patients who were receiving a stable daily dose of prednisolone (≤10 mg) for ≥6 months were assigned to receive raloxifene (60 mg/day) or placebo on top of calcium and vitamin D. Disease activity was assessed by the Safety of Estrogens in Lupus Erythematosus National Assessment (SELENA), SLE disease activity index (SLEDAI) and physicians' global assessment (PGA) every three months. Lupus flares were assessed by the SELENA flare instrument. Serial serum levels of homocysteine, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and soluble thrombomodulin (sTM) were measured. RESULTS: A total of 62 patients (30 raloxifene, 32 placebo) were studied (age 52.5 ± 6.7 years; SLE duration 9.3 ± 7.6 years; menopause duration 7.2 ± 6.6 years). The SLEDAI at entry was 1.8 ± 2.3 (SLEDAI ≥ 6 in 8%). After 12 months, a significant gain in bone mineral density (BMD) of the lumbar spine (1.6%, p = 0.02), and reduction in bone resorption and formation markers was observed in the raloxifene but not in the placebo treated patients. The SELENA-SLEDAI and PGA scores area under the curve over 12 months were not significantly different between the two groups. There were three episodes of mild/moderate lupus flares (33% musculoskeletal, 33% dermatological) in the raloxifene group, compared to nine episodes of mild/moderate flares (27% musculoskeletal, 45% dermatological) in the placebo group (p = 0.11). The low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol level increased significantly in the placebo but not raloxifene treated patients. No significant changes in homocysteine, hsCRP and sTM levels were observed in either group of patients. CONCLUSIONS: Raloxifene significantly improves lumbar spine BMD in SLE patients but does not cause an increase in lupus activity or flares.