Transmission potential of COVID-19 in Iran

We estimated the reproduction number of 2020 Iranian COVID-19 epidemic using two different methods: R0 was estimated at 4.4 (95% CI, 3.9, 4.9) (generalized growth model) and 3.50 (1.28, 8.14) (epidemic doubling time) (February 19 - March 1) while the effective R was estimated at 1.55 (1.06, 2.57) (March 6-19).

Transmission potential of COVID-19 in South Korea

Since the first identified individual of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection on Jan 20, 2020 in South Korea, the number of confirmed cases rapidly increased. As of Feb 26, 2020, 1,261 cases of COVID-19 including 12 deaths were confirmed in South Korea. Using the incidence data of COVID-19, we estimate the reproduction number at 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4-1.6), which indicates sustained transmission and support the implementation of social distancing measures to rapidly control the outbreak.

Real-time monitoring the transmission potential of COVID-19 in Singapore, February 2020

BackgroundThe ongoing COVID-19 epidemic that spread widely in China since December 2019 is now generating local transmission in multiple countries including Singapore as of February 27, 2020. This highlights the need to monitor in real time the transmission potential of COVID-19. In Singapore, four major COVID-19 case clusters have emerged thus far. MethodsHere we estimate the effective reproduction number, Rt, of COVID-19 in Singapore from the publicly available daily case series of imported and autochthonous cases by date of symptoms onset, after adjusting the local cases for reporting delays. We also derive the reproduction number from the distribution of cluster sizes using a branching process analysis. ResultsThe effective reproduction number peaked with a mean value [~]1.1 around February 2nd, 2020 and declined thereafter. As of February 27th, 2020, our most recent estimate of Rt is at 0.5 (95% CI: 0.2,0.7) while an estimate of the overall R based on cluster size distribution is at 0.7 (95% CI: 0.5, 0.9). ConclusionThe trajectory of the reproduction number in Singapore underscore the significant effects of containment efforts in Singapore while at the same time suggest the need to sustain social distancing and active case finding efforts to stomp out all active chains of transmission.

Epidemic doubling time of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak by province in mainland China

COVID-19 epidemic doubling time by Chinese province was increasing from January 20 through February 9, 2020. The harmonic mean of the arithmetic mean doubling time estimates ranged from 1.4 (Hunan, 95% CI, 1.2-2.0) to 3.1 (Xinjiang, 95% CI, 2.1-4.8), with an estimate of 2.5 days (95% CI, 2.4-2.6) for Hubei.