A decision tree model for predicting intravenous immunoglobulin resistance and coronary artery involvement in Kawasaki disease.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to develop a new algorithm for predicting intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance and coronary artery involvement in Kawasaki disease (KD) through decision tree models. METHODS: Medical records of children hospitalized for KD were analysed retrospectively. We compared the clinical characteristics, and the laboratory data in the groups with IVIG resistance and coronary artery dilatations (CADs) in KD patients. The decision tree models were developed to predict IVIG resistance and CADs. RESULTS: A total 896 patients (511 males and 385 females; 1 month-12 years) were eligible. IVIG resistance was identified in 111 (12.3%) patients, and CADs were found in 156 (17.4%). Total bilirubin and nitrogen terminal- pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) were significantly higher in IVIG resistant group than in IVIG responsive group (0.62 ± 0.8 mg/dL vs 1.38 ± 1.4 mg/dL and 1231 ± 2136 pg/mL vs 2425 ± 4459 mL, respectively, P < 0.01). Also, CADs were more developed in the resistant group (39/111; 14.9% vs. 117/785; 35.1%, P < 0.01). The decision tree for predicting IVIG resistance was classified based on total bilirubin (0.7 mg/mL, 1.46 mg/dL) and NT-proBNP (1561 pg/mL), consisting of two layers and four nodes, with 86.2% training accuracy and 90.5% evaluation accuracy. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) evaluated the predictive ability of the decision tree, and the area under the curve (AUC) (0.834; 95% confidence interval, 0.675-0.973; P < 0.05) showed relatively higher accuracy. The group with CADs had significantly higher total bilirubin and NT-proBNP levels than the control group (0.64 ± 0.82 mg/dL vs 1.04 ± 1.14 mg/dL and 1192 ± 2049 pg/mL vs 2268 ± 4136 pg/mL, respectively, P < 0.01). The decision trees for predicting CADs were classified into two nodes based on NT-proBNP (789 pg/mL) alone, with 83.5% training accuracy and 90.3% evaluation accuracy. CONCLUSION: A new algorithm decision tree model presents for predicting IVIG resistance and CADs in KD, confirming the usefulness of NT-proBNP as a predictor of KD.

Prediction of renal cortical defect and scar using neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in children with febrile urinary tract infection.

AIM: This study is aimed to evaluate the predictive value of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) for cortical defect on initial and follow-up Tc-99m dimercaptosuccinic acid (DMSA) scan in children with the first febrile urinary tract infection (UTI). METHODS: We retrospectively enrolled 179 children with the first febrile UTI who underwent DMSA scan and laboratory tests. In patients with abnormal DMSA scan findings, follow-up DMSA scan was performed at least 6 months after the initial scan. All DMSA scans were classified as negative and positive cortical defects. Multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the risk factors for cortical defect on initial and follow-up DMSA scan. RESULTS: Cortical defects on initial DMSA scan were noted in 133 patients. Vesicoureteral reflux (VUR), white blood cell count, absolute neutrophil count, NLR, and serum C-reactive protein level were independent predictive factors for positive cortical defect on initial DMSA scan (p < 0.050). On follow-up DMSA scan, 24 of the 133 patients showed persistent cortical defects, and only VUR was significantly associated with persistent cortical defect (p = 0.002). In 84 patients who showed cortical defect on initial scan and absence of VUR, only NLR was significantly associated with persistent cortical defect on follow-up scan (p = 0.025). CONCLUSION: NLR was significantly associated with persistent cortical defect on follow-up DMSA scan in patients without VUR, as well as positive cortical defect on initial scan.

Clinical outcome of acute myocarditis in children according to treatment modalities.

PURPOSE: There is currently little evidence to support intravenous immune globulin (IVIG) therapy for pediatric myocarditis. The purpose of our retrospective study was to assess the effects of IVIG therapy in patients with presumed myocarditis on survival and recovery of ventricular function and to determine the factors associated with its poor outcome. METHODS: We reviewed all consecutive cases of patients with myocarditis with left ventricular dysfunction verified by echocardiogram who had visited 3 university hospitals between January 2000 and September 2009. These patients were divided into 2 groups. Group 1 consisted of 23 patients (69.6%) who received IVIG alone or IVIG in combination with steroids, and group 2 consisted of 10 patients (30.3%) who received neither IVIG nor other immunosuppressive agents. Clinical manifestations, laboratory results, echocardiographic findings, and outcomes were compared between these 2 groups. RESULTS: One year after the initial presentation, the difference in the probability of survival did not show statistical significance in IVIG-treated patients (P=0.607). Of the echocardiographic parameters on admission, a shortening fraction of less than 15% was associated with unremitting cardiac failure. Furthermore, anemic patients were more likely to have elevated N-terminal fragment levels of the B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in the progressed group (P=0.036). CONCLUSION: There was no difference between the IVIG-treated patients and the control patients in the degree of recovery of left ventricular function and survival. Prospective, randomized, clinical studies are needed to elucidate the effects of IVIG treatment during the acute stage of myocarditis on ultimate outcomes.

Complete atrioventricular block in an adolescent with rheumatic Fever.

Rheumatic fever is an acute inflammatory sequela following a group A, beta-hemolytic streptococcal infection. Rheumatic fever is characterized by polyarthritis, carditis, chorea, subcutaneous nodules, and erythema marginatum as the major diagnostic criteria. Rarely, advanced heart block may also occur. A 13-year-old boy was admitted to the Pediatric Department for evaluation and management of complete atrioventricular block. The patient had exertional dyspnea for 1 month. Based on the findings of mitral regurgitation, fever, elevated acute phase reactants, and a high antistreptolysin O titer, the patient was diagnosed with rheumatic fever. A benzathine penicillin injection was administered, as well as salicylate therapy. On the 5(th) day of hospitalization, the electrocardiogram revealed a normal sinus rhythm with a 1(st) degree atrioventricular block. After discharge, the electrocardiogram normalized with the monthly penicillin injections. Herein we report a case of complete atrioventricular block associated with rheumatic fever. The heart block resolved without specific cardiac treatment, other than a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory medication.