Exploring the ability of the MD+FoldX method to predict SARS-CoV-2 antibody escape mutations using large-scale data.

Antibody escape mutations pose a significant challenge to the effectiveness of vaccines and antibody-based therapies. The ability to predict these escape mutations with computer simulations would allow us to detect threats early and develop effective countermeasures, but a lack of large-scale experimental data has hampered the validation of these calculations. In this study, we evaluate the ability of the MD+FoldX molecular modeling method to predict escape mutations by leveraging a large deep mutational scanning dataset, focusing on the SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain. Our results show a positive correlation between predicted and experimental data, indicating that mutations with reduced predicted binding affinity correlate moderately with higher experimental escape fractions. We also demonstrate that better performance can be achieved using affinity cutoffs tailored to distinct antibody-antigen interactions rather than a one-size-fits-all approach. We find that 70% of the systems surpass the 50% precision mark, and demonstrate success in identifying mutations present in significant variants of concern and variants of interest. Despite promising results for some systems, our study highlights the challenges in comparing predicted and experimental values. It also emphasizes the need for new binding affinity methods with improved accuracy that are fast enough to estimate hundreds to thousands of antibody-antigen binding affinities.

Statistical modeling to quantify the uncertainty of FoldX-predicted protein folding and binding stability.

BACKGROUND: Computational methods of predicting protein stability changes upon missense mutations are invaluable tools in high-throughput studies involving a large number of protein variants. However, they are limited by a wide variation in accuracy and difficulty of assessing prediction uncertainty. Using a popular computational tool, FoldX, we develop a statistical framework that quantifies the uncertainty of predicted changes in protein stability. RESULTS: We show that multiple linear regression models can be used to quantify the uncertainty associated with FoldX prediction for individual mutations. Comparing the performance among models with varying degrees of complexity, we find that the model precision improves significantly when we utilize molecular dynamics simulation as part of the FoldX workflow. Based on the model that incorporates information from molecular dynamics, biochemical properties, as well as FoldX energy terms, we can generally expect upper bounds on the uncertainty of folding stability predictions of ± 2.9 kcal/mol and ± 3.5 kcal/mol for binding stability predictions. The uncertainty for individual mutations varies; our model estimates it using FoldX energy terms, biochemical properties of the mutated residue, as well as the variability among snapshots from molecular dynamics simulation. CONCLUSIONS: Using a linear regression framework, we construct models to predict the uncertainty associated with FoldX prediction of stability changes upon mutation. This technique is straightforward and can be extended to other computational methods as well.

Novel viruses of the family Partitiviridae discovered in Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

It has been 49 years since the last discovery of a new virus family in the model yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. A large-scale screen to determine the diversity of double-stranded RNA (dsRNA) viruses in S. cerevisiae has identified multiple novel viruses from the family Partitiviridae that have been previously shown to infect plants, fungi, protozoans, and insects. Most S. cerevisiae partitiviruses (ScPVs) are associated with strains of yeasts isolated from coffee and cacao beans. The presence of partitiviruses was confirmed by sequencing the viral dsRNAs and purifying and visualizing isometric, non-enveloped viral particles. ScPVs have a typical bipartite genome encoding an RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRP) and a coat protein (CP). Phylogenetic analysis of ScPVs identified three species of ScPV, which are most closely related to viruses of the genus Cryspovirus from the mammalian pathogenic protozoan Cryptosporidium parvum. Molecular modeling of the ScPV RdRP revealed a conserved tertiary structure and catalytic site organization when compared to the RdRPs of the Picornaviridae. The ScPV CP is the smallest so far identified in the Partitiviridae and has structural homology with the CP of other partitiviruses but likely lacks a protrusion domain that is a conspicuous feature of other partitivirus particles. ScPVs were stably maintained during laboratory growth and were successfully transferred to haploid progeny after sporulation, which provides future opportunities to study partitivirus-host interactions using the powerful genetic tools available for the model organism S. cerevisiae.

The effect of mutations on binding interactions between the SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain and neutralizing antibodies B38 and CB6.

SARS-CoV-2 is the pathogen responsible for COVID-19 that has claimed over six million lives as of July 2022. The severity of COVID-19 motivates a need to understand how it could evolve to escape potential treatments and to find ways to strengthen existing treatments. Here, we used the molecular modeling methods MD + FoldX and PyRosetta to study the SARS-CoV-2 spike receptor binding domain (S-RBD) bound to two neutralizing antibodies, B38 and CB6 and generated lists of antibody escape and antibody strengthening mutations. Our resulting watchlist contains potential antibody escape mutations against B38/CB6 and consists of 211/186 mutations across 35/22 S-RBD sites. Some of these mutations have been identified in previous studies as being significant in human populations (e.g., N501Y). The list of potential antibody strengthening mutations that are predicted to improve binding of B38/CB6 to S-RBD consists of 116/45 mutations across 29/13 sites. These mutations could be used to improve the therapeutic value of these antibodies.

Molecular Modeling Predicts Novel Antibody Escape Mutations in the Respiratory Syncytial Virus Fusion Glycoprotein.

Monoclonal antibodies are increasingly used for the prevention and/or treatment of viral infections. One caveat of their use is the ability of viruses to evolve resistance to antibody binding and neutralization. Computational strategies to identify viral mutations that may disrupt antibody binding would leverage the wealth of viral genomic sequence data to monitor for potential antibody-resistant mutations. The respiratory syncytial virus is an important pathogen for which monoclonal antibodies against the fusion (F) protein are used to prevent severe disease in high-risk infants. In this study, we used an approach that combines molecular dynamics simulations with FoldX to estimate changes in free energy in F protein folding and binding to the motavizumab antibody upon each possible amino acid change. We systematically selected 8 predicted escape mutations and tested them in an infectious clone. Consistent with our F protein stability predictions, replication-effective viruses were observed for each selected mutation. Six of the eight variants showed increased resistance to neutralization by motavizumab. Flow cytometry was used to validate the estimated (model-predicted) effects on antibody binding to F. Using surface plasmon resonance, we determined that changes in the on-rate of motavizumab binding were associated with the reduced affinity for two novel escape mutations. Our study empirically validated the accuracy of our molecular modeling approach and emphasized the role of biophysical protein modeling in predicting viral resistance to antibody-based therapeutics that can be used to monitor the emergence of resistant viruses and to design improved therapeutic antibodies. IMPORTANCE Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes severe disease in young infants, particularly those with heart or lung diseases or born prematurely. Because no vaccine is currently available, monoclonal antibodies are used to prevent severe RSV disease in high-risk infants. While it is known that RSV evolves to avoid recognition by antibodies, screening tools that can predict which changes to the virus may lead to antibody resistance are greatly needed.

Paired Simulations and Experimental Investigations into the Calcium-Dependent Conformation of Albumin.

Serum albumin is the most abundant protein in blood plasma, and it is involved in multiple biological processes. Serum albumin has recently been adapted for improving biomaterial integration with bone tissue, and studies have shown the importance of this protein in bone repair and regeneration. However, the mechanism of action is not yet clear. In stark contrast, other studies have demonstrated that albumin blocks cell adhesion to surfaces, which is seen as a limitation to its bone healing role. These apparent contradictions suggest that the conformation of albumin facilitates its bioactivity, leading to enhanced bone repair. Serum albumin is known to play a major role in maintaining the calcium ion concentration in blood plasma. Due to the prevalence of calcium at bone repair and regeneration sites, it has been hypothesized that calcium binding to serum albumin triggers a conformational change, leading to bioactivity. In the current study, molecular modeling approaches including molecular docking, atomic molecular dynamics (MD) simulation, and coarse-grained MD simulation were used to test this hypothesis by investigating the conformational changes induced in bovine serum albumin by interaction with calcium ions. The computational results were qualitatively validated with experimental Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy analysis. We find that free calcium ions in solution transiently bind with the three major loops in albumin, triggering a conformational change where N-terminal and C-terminal domains separate from each other in a partial unfolding process. The separation distance between these domains was found to correlate with the calcium ion concentration. The experimental data support the simulation results showing that albumin has enhanced conformational heterogeneity upon exposure to intermediate levels of calcium, without any significant secondary structure changes.

EfgA is a conserved formaldehyde sensor that leads to bacterial growth arrest in response to elevated formaldehyde.

Normal cellular processes give rise to toxic metabolites that cells must mitigate. Formaldehyde is a universal stressor and potent metabolic toxin that is generated in organisms from bacteria to humans. Methylotrophic bacteria such as Methylorubrum extorquens face an acute challenge due to their production of formaldehyde as an obligate central intermediate of single-carbon metabolism. Mechanisms to sense and respond to formaldehyde were speculated to exist in methylotrophs for decades but had never been discovered. Here, we identify a member of the DUF336 domain family, named efgA for enhanced formaldehyde growth, that plays an important role in endogenous formaldehyde stress response in M. extorquens PA1 and is found almost exclusively in methylotrophic taxa. Our experimental analyses reveal that EfgA is a formaldehyde sensor that rapidly arrests growth in response to elevated levels of formaldehyde. Heterologous expression of EfgA in Escherichia coli increases formaldehyde resistance, indicating that its interaction partners are widespread and conserved. EfgA represents the first example of a formaldehyde stress response system that does not involve enzymatic detoxification. Thus, EfgA comprises a unique stress response mechanism in bacteria, whereby a single protein directly senses elevated levels of a toxic intracellular metabolite and safeguards cells from potential damage.

Implementing and Assessing an Alchemical Method for Calculating Protein-Protein Binding Free Energy.

Protein-protein binding is fundamental to most biological processes. It is important to be able to use computation to accurately estimate the change in protein-protein binding free energy due to mutations in order to answer biological questions that would be experimentally challenging, laborious, or time-consuming. Although nonrigorous free-energy methods are faster, rigorous alchemical molecular dynamics-based methods are considerably more accurate and are becoming more feasible with the advancement of computer hardware and molecular simulation software. Even with sufficient computational resources, there are still major challenges to using alchemical free-energy methods for protein-protein complexes, such as generating hybrid structures and topologies, maintaining a neutral net charge of the system when there is a charge-changing mutation, and setting up the simulation. In the current study, we have used the pmx package to generate hybrid structures and topologies, and a double-system/single-box approach to maintain the net charge of the system. To test the approach, we predicted relative binding affinities for two protein-protein complexes using a nonequilibrium alchemical method based on the Crooks fluctuation theorem and compared the results with experimental values. The method correctly identified stabilizing from destabilizing mutations for a small protein-protein complex, and a larger, more challenging antibody complex. Strong correlations were obtained between predicted and experimental relative binding affinities for both protein-protein systems.

Assessment of software methods for estimating protein-protein relative binding affinities.

A growing number of computational tools have been developed to accurately and rapidly predict the impact of amino acid mutations on protein-protein relative binding affinities. Such tools have many applications, for example, designing new drugs and studying evolutionary mechanisms. In the search for accuracy, many of these methods employ expensive yet rigorous molecular dynamics simulations. By contrast, non-rigorous methods use less exhaustive statistical mechanics, allowing for more efficient calculations. However, it is unclear if such methods retain enough accuracy to replace rigorous methods in binding affinity calculations. This trade-off between accuracy and computational expense makes it difficult to determine the best method for a particular system or study. Here, eight non-rigorous computational methods were assessed using eight antibody-antigen and eight non-antibody-antigen complexes for their ability to accurately predict relative binding affinities (ΔΔG) for 654 single mutations. In addition to assessing accuracy, we analyzed the CPU cost and performance for each method using a variety of physico-chemical structural features. This allowed us to posit scenarios in which each method may be best utilized. Most methods performed worse when applied to antibody-antigen complexes compared to non-antibody-antigen complexes. Rosetta-based JayZ and EasyE methods classified mutations as destabilizing (ΔΔG < -0.5 kcal/mol) with high (83-98%) accuracy and a relatively low computational cost for non-antibody-antigen complexes. Some of the most accurate results for antibody-antigen systems came from combining molecular dynamics with FoldX with a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.46, but this was also the most computationally expensive method. Overall, our results suggest these methods can be used to quickly and accurately predict stabilizing versus destabilizing mutations but are less accurate at predicting actual binding affinities. This study highlights the need for continued development of reliable, accessible, and reproducible methods for predicting binding affinities in antibody-antigen proteins and provides a recipe for using current methods.

Predicting the viability of beta-lactamase: How folding and binding free energies correlate with beta-lactamase fitness.

One of the long-standing holy grails of molecular evolution has been the ability to predict an organism's fitness directly from its genotype. With such predictive abilities in hand, researchers would be able to more accurately forecast how organisms will evolve and how proteins with novel functions could be engineered, leading to revolutionary advances in medicine and biotechnology. In this work, we assemble the largest reported set of experimental TEM-1 ß-lactamase folding free energies and use this data in conjunction with previously acquired fitness data and computational free energy predictions to determine how much of the fitness of ß-lactamase can be directly predicted by thermodynamic folding and binding free energies. We focus upon ß-lactamase because of its long history as a model enzyme and its central role in antibiotic resistance. Based upon a set of 21 ß-lactamase single and double mutants expressly designed to influence protein folding, we first demonstrate that modeling software designed to compute folding free energies such as FoldX and PyRosetta can meaningfully, although not perfectly, predict the experimental folding free energies of single mutants. Interestingly, while these techniques also yield sensible double mutant free energies, we show that they do so for the wrong physical reasons. We then go on to assess how well both experimental and computational folding free energies explain single mutant fitness. We find that folding free energies account for, at most, 24% of the variance in ß-lactamase fitness values according to linear models and, somewhat surprisingly, complementing folding free energies with computationally-predicted binding free energies of residues near the active site only increases the folding-only figure by a few percent. This strongly suggests that the majority of ß-lactamase's fitness is controlled by factors other than free energies. Overall, our results shed a bright light on to what extent the community is justified in using thermodynamic measures to infer protein fitness as well as how applicable modern computational techniques for predicting free energies will be to the large data sets of multiply-mutated proteins forthcoming.

Implementation of adaptive integration method for free energy calculations in molecular systems.

Estimating free energy differences by computer simulation is useful for a wide variety of applications such as virtual screening for drug design and for understanding how amino acid mutations modify protein interactions. However, calculating free energy differences remains challenging and often requires extensive trial and error and very long simulation times in order to achieve converged results. Here, we present an implementation of the adaptive integration method (AIM). We tested our implementation on two molecular systems and compared results from AIM to those from a suite of other methods. The model systems tested here include calculating the solvation free energy of methane, and the free energy of mutating the peptide GAG to GVG. We show that AIM is more efficient than other tested methods for these systems, that is, AIM results converge to a higher level of accuracy and precision for a given simulation time.

Protein Stability in Titan's Subsurface Water Ocean.

Models of Titan predict that there is a subsurface ocean of water and ammonia under a layer of ice. Such an ocean would be important in the search for extraterrestrial life since it provides a potentially habitable environment. To evaluate how Earth-based proteins would behave in Titan's subsurface ocean environment, we used molecular dynamics simulations to calculate the properties of proteins with the most common secondary structure types (alpha helix and beta sheet) in both Earth and Titan-like conditions. The Titan environment was simulated by using a temperature of 300 K, a pressure of 1000 bar, and a eutectic mixture of water and ammonia. We analyzed protein compactness, flexibility, and backbone dihedral distributions to identify differences between the two environments. Secondary structures in the Titan environment were found to be less long-lasting, less flexible, and had small differences in backbone dihedral preferences (e.g., in one instance a pi helix formed). These environment-driven differences could lead to changes in how these proteins interact with other biomolecules and therefore changes in how evolution would potentially shape proteins to function in subsurface ocean environments.

Expanding the watch list for potential Ebola virus antibody escape mutations.

The 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Western Africa is the largest recorded filovirus disease outbreak and led to the death of over 11,000 people. The recent EVD outbreaks (since May 2018) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has already claimed the lives of over 250 people. Tackling Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreaks remains a challenge. Over the years, significant efforts have been put into developing vaccines or antibody therapies which rely on an envelope glycoprotein (GP) of Zaire ebolavirus (strain Mayinga-76). Therefore, one key approach for combating EVD epidemics is to predict mutations that may diminish the effectiveness of the treatment. In a previous study we generated a watch list of potential antibody escape mutations of EBOV GP against the monoclonal antibody KZ52. Molecular modeling methods were applied to the three-dimensional experimental structure of EBOV GP bound to KZ52 to predict the effect of every possible single mutation in EBOV GP. The final watch list contained 34 mutations that were predicted to destabilize binding of KZ52 to EBOV GP but did not affect EBOV GP folding and its ability to form trimers. In this study, we expand our watch list by including three more monoclonal antibodies with distinct epitopes on GP, namely Antibody 100 (Ab100), Antibody 114 (Ab114) and 13F6-1-2. Our updated watch list contains 127 mutations, three of which have been seen in humans or are experimentally associated with reduced efficacy of antibody treatment. We believe mutations on this watch list require attention since they provide information about circumstances in which interventions could lose the effectiveness.

Predicting peak spectral sensitivities of vertebrate cone visual pigments using atomistic molecular simulations.

Vision is the dominant sensory modality in many organisms for foraging, predator avoidance, and social behaviors including mate selection. Vertebrate visual perception is initiated when light strikes rod and cone photoreceptors within the neural retina of the eye. Sensitivity to individual colors, i.e., peak spectral sensitivities (λmax) of visual pigments, are a function of the type of chromophore and the amino acid sequence of the associated opsin protein in the photoreceptors. Large differences in peak spectral sensitivities can result from minor differences in amino acid sequence of cone opsins. To determine how minor sequence differences could result in large spectral shifts we selected a spectrally-diverse group of 14 teleost Rh2 cone opsins for which sequences and λmax are experimentally known. Classical molecular dynamics simulations were carried out after embedding chromophore-associated homology structures within explicit bilayers and water. These simulations revealed structural features of visual pigments, particularly within the chromophore, that contributed to diverged spectral sensitivities. Statistical tests performed on all the observed structural parameters associated with the chromophore revealed that a two-term, first-order regression model was sufficient to accurately predict λmax over a range of 452-528 nm. The approach was accurate, efficient and simple in that site-by-site molecular modifications or complex quantum mechanics models were not required to predict λmax. These studies identify structural features associated with the chromophore that may explain diverged spectral sensitivities, and provide a platform for future, functionally predictive opsin modeling.

Fast Calculation of Protein-Protein Binding Free Energies Using Umbrella Sampling with a Coarse-Grained Model.

Determination of protein-protein binding affinity values is key to understanding various underlying biological phenomena, such as how missense variations change protein-protein binding. Most existing non-rigorous (fast) and rigorous (slow) methods that rely on all-atom representation of the proteins force the user to choose between speed and accuracy. In an attempt to achieve balance between speed and accuracy, we have combined rigorous umbrella sampling molecular dynamics simulation with a coarse-grained protein model. We predicted the effect of missense variations on binding affinity by selecting three protein-protein systems and comparing results to empirical relative binding affinity values and to non-rigorous modeling approaches. We obtained significant improvement both in our ability to discern stabilizing from destabilizing missense variations and in the correlation between predicted and experimental values compared to non-rigorous approaches. Overall our results suggest that using a rigorous affinity calculation method with coarse-grained protein models could offer fast and reliable predictions of protein-protein binding free energies.

Parallel Mutations Result in a Wide Range of Cooperation and Community Consequences in a Two-Species Bacterial Consortium.

Multi-species microbial communities play a critical role in human health, industry, and waste remediation. Recently, the evolution of synthetic consortia in the laboratory has enabled adaptation to be addressed in the context of interacting species. Using an engineered bacterial consortium, we repeatedly evolved cooperative genotypes and examined both the predictability of evolution and the phenotypes that determine community dynamics. Eight Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium strains evolved methionine excretion sufficient to support growth of an Escherichia coli methionine auxotroph, from whom they required excreted growth substrates. Non-synonymous mutations in metA, encoding homoserine trans-succinylase (HTS), were detected in each evolved S. enterica methionine cooperator and were shown to be necessary for cooperative consortia growth. Molecular modeling was used to predict that most of the non-synonymous mutations slightly increase the binding affinity for HTS homodimer formation. Despite this genetic parallelism and trend of increasing protein binding stability, these metA alleles gave rise to a wide range of phenotypic diversity in terms of individual versus group benefit. The cooperators with the highest methionine excretion permitted nearly two-fold faster consortia growth and supported the highest fraction of E. coli, yet also had the slowest individual growth rates compared to less cooperative strains. Thus, although the genetic basis of adaptation was quite similar across independent origins of cooperative phenotypes, quantitative measurements of metabolite production were required to predict either the individual-level growth consequences or how these propagate to community-level behavior.

New Perspectives on Ebola Virus Evolution.

Since the recent devastating outbreak of Ebola virus disease in western Africa, there has been significant effort to understand the evolution of the deadly virus that caused the outbreak. There has been a considerable investment in sequencing Ebola virus (EBOV) isolates, and the results paint an important picture of how the virus has spread in western Africa. EBOV evolution cannot be understood outside the context of previous outbreaks, however. We have focused this study on the evolution of the EBOV glycoprotein gene (GP) because one of its products, the spike glycoprotein (GP1,2), is central to the host immune response and because it contains a large amount of the phylogenetic signal for this virus. We inferred the maximum likelihood phylogeny of 96 nonredundant GP gene sequences representing each of the outbreaks since 1976 up to the end of 2014. We tested for positive selection and considered the placement of adaptive amino acid substitutions along the phylogeny and within the protein structure of GP1,2. We conclude that: 1) the common practice of rooting the phylogeny of EBOV between the first known outbreak in 1976 and the next outbreak in 1995 provides a misleading view of EBOV evolution that ignores the fact that there is a non-human EBOV host between outbreaks; 2) the N-terminus of GP1 may be constrained from evolving in response to the host immune system by the highly expressed, secreted glycoprotein, which is encoded by the same region of the GP gene; 3) although the mucin-like domain of GP1 is essential for EBOV in vivo, it evolves rapidly without losing its twin functions: providing O-linked glycosylation sites and a flexible surface.

Initiating a watch list for Ebola virus antibody escape mutations.

The 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa is the largest in recorded history and resulted in over 11,000 deaths. It is essential that strategies for treatment and containment be developed to avoid future epidemics of this magnitude. With the development of vaccines and antibody-based therapies using the envelope glycoprotein (GP) of the 1976 Mayinga strain, one important strategy is to anticipate how the evolution of EBOV might compromise these efforts. In this study we have initiated a watch list of potential antibody escape mutations of EBOV by modeling interactions between GP and the antibody KZ52. The watch list was generated using molecular modeling to estimate stability changes due to mutation. Every possible mutation of GP was considered and the list was generated from those that are predicted to disrupt GP-KZ52 binding but not to disrupt the ability of GP to fold and to form trimers. The resulting watch list contains 34 mutations (one of which has already been seen in humans) at six sites in the GP2 subunit. Should mutations from the watch list appear and spread during an epidemic, it warrants attention as these mutations may reflect an evolutionary response from the virus that could reduce the effectiveness of interventions such as vaccination. However, this watch list is incomplete and emphasizes the need for more experimental structures of EBOV interacting with antibodies in order to expand the watch list to other epitopes. We hope that this work provokes experimental research on evolutionary escape in both Ebola and other viral pathogens.

The cis conformation of proline leads to weaker binding of a p53 peptide to MDM2 compared to trans.

The cis and trans conformations of the Xaa-Pro (Xaa: any amino acid) peptide bond are thermodynamically stable while other peptide bonds strongly prefer trans. The effect of proline cis-trans isomerization on protein binding has not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, computer simulations were used to calculate the absolute binding affinity for a p53 peptide (residues 17-29) to MDM2 for both cis and trans isomers of the p53 proline in position 27. Results show that the cis isomer of p53(17-29) binds more weakly to MDM2 than the trans isomer, and that this is primarily due to the difference in the free energy cost associated with the loss of conformational entropy of p53(17-29) when it binds to MDM2. The population of cis p53(17-29) was estimated to be 0.8% of the total population in the bound state. The stronger binding of trans p53(17-29) to MDM2 compared to cis may leave a minimal level of p53 available to respond to cellular stress. This study demonstrates that it is feasible to estimate the absolute binding affinity for an intrinsically disordered protein fragment binding to an ordered protein that are in good agreement with experimental results.

Using chemical shifts to generate structural ensembles for intrinsically disordered proteins with converged distributions of secondary structure.

A short segment of the disordered p53 transactivation domain (p53TAD) forms an amphipathic helix when bound to the E3 ubiquitin ligase, MDM2. In the unbound p53TAD, this short segment has transient helical secondary structure. Using a method that combines broad sampling of conformational space with re-weighting, it is shown that it is possible to generate multiple, independent structural ensembles that have highly similar secondary structure distributions for both p53TAD and a P27A mutant. Fractional amounts of transient helical secondary structure were found at the MDM2 binding site that are very similar to estimates based directly on experimental observations. Structures were identified in these ensembles containing segments that are highly similar to short p53 peptides bound to MDM2, even though the ensembles were re-weighted using unbound experimental data. Ensembles were generated using chemical shift data (alpha carbon only, or in combination with other chemical shifts) and cross-validated by predicting residual dipolar couplings. We think this ensemble generator could be used to predict the bound state structure of protein interaction sites in IDPs if there are detectable amounts of matching transient secondary structure in the unbound state.