Validation study of cause of death statistics in Cape Town, South Africa, found poor agreement.

OBJECTIVE: The validity of the underlying cause of death on death notification forms was assessed by comparing it to the underlying cause determined independently from medical records. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective study of 703 deaths in two suburbs of Cape Town, South Africa. Two medical doctors completed a medical review death certificate to validate the registration death certificate for each decedent. Agreement, sensitivity, and positive predictive value were measured for underlying causes of death using the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality tabulation list 1. RESULTS: Agreement was poor, with only 55.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 51.7, 59.0) of diagnoses matching at WHO mortality tabulation list 1 level. Validity of reported causes of death was poor for HIV, cardiovascular diseases, and diabetes. With correct reporting, the cause-specific mortality fraction for HIV increased from 11.9% to 18.3% (53.6%; 95% CI: 36.9, 77.6), for ischemic heart disease from 3.3% to 7.3% (121.7%; 95% CI: 53.5, 228.7), and for hypertensive diseases from 3.3% to 5.7% (73.9%; 95% CI: 14.4, 167.8). For diabetes, the mortality fraction decreased from 6.0% to 2.3% (-64.3%; 95% CI: -77.1, -37.8) and for ill-defined deaths from 7.4% to 2.3% (-69.2%; 95% CI: -81.0, -51.6). CONCLUSION: Current cause-specific mortality levels should be cautiously interpreted. Death certification training is required to improve the validity of mortality data.

Indices of body and brain size at birth and at the age of 2 years: relations to cognitive outcome at the age of 16 years in low birth weight infants.

OBJECTIVE: To determine in low birth weight infants the relations of being small for gestational age at birth, microcephalic at birth, low weight for age at 2 years, and microcephalic at 2 years to full scale intelligence quotient (FSIQ) at the age of 16 years. METHODS: A prospective observational study of 422 of 837 eligible nondisabled low birth weight (<2000 g) adolescents from the newborn brain hemorrhage cohort with weight and head circumference at birth and at the age of 2 years in whom FSIQ was assessed with the Wechsler Abbreviated Scales of Intelligence at the age of 16 years. RESULTS: In a multiple regression analysis, being small for gestational age (beta = -0.14, p = .02) and microcephalic at 2 years (beta = -0.18, p < .001), but not low weight for age at 2 years or microcephaly at birth, had significant independent effects on 16-year FSIQ. After adjusting for pre-, peri-, and postnatal risk factors for poor cognitive performance, the independent effects of being small for gestational age (beta = -0.13, p = .004) and microcephalic at 2 years (beta = -0.13, p = .01) persisted. In this analysis, birth social risk had the largest significant independent effect on 16-year FSIQ (beta = -0.28, p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Being small for gestational age at birth, but not low weight for age at 2 years, and microcephaly at 2 years, but not at birth, were independently related to FSIQ of nondisabled low birth weight adolescents, both with and without control for pre-, peri-, and postnatal risk factors.

Cardiovascular disease risk factors and women prisoners in the UK: the impact of imprisonment.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of death throughout the world. In high income countries, the greatest burden of disease is seen in those from lower socio-economic groups. It is therefore likely that CVD is an important issue for prisoners in the UK, the majority of whom were either unemployed or in non-skilled employment prior to imprisonment. However, there is little research examining this issue. The aim of this study was to examine the prevalence of five modifiable cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, physical activity, diet, body mass index and hypertension) in women prisoners on entry to prison and then 1 month after imprisonment. This was a prospective longitudinal study involving 505 women prisoners in England. Participants completed a questionnaire containing questions about health-related behaviours within 72 h of entering prison. The researchers measured their blood pressure, height and weight. They followed up all participants who were still imprisoned 1 month later and invited them to participate again. The results showed that women prisoners were at high risk of CVD in the future; 85% smoked cigarettes, 87% were insufficiently active to benefit their health, 86% did not eat at least five portions of fruit and vegetables each day and 30% were overweight or obese. After 1 month, there were few improvements in risk factors. This may in part reflect the fact that, unlike prisons in other high income countries, there are currently no systematic approaches which address these health issues within UK women's prisons.

Deaths caused by HIV disease under-reported in South Africa.

Modelling of trends in age-specific death rates in South Africa suggests that deaths attributable to HIV are often misclassified on death notification forms. We compared the underlying cause of death from death notification forms with that based on scrutiny of medical records for 683 deaths in Cape Town. Of 129 deaths caused by HIV according to medical records, only 35 (27.1%) were ascribed to HIV on the death notification form using strict coding and 83 (64.3%) using interpretive coding.

Genetic variation in dopaminergic pathways and short-term effectiveness of the nicotine patch.

Polymorphisms in the dopamine D2 receptor (DRD2 C/T and DRD2 A/G) and in dopamine beta hydroxylase (DBH A/G) have been implicated in modulation of smoking and other reward-seeking behaviours. We hypothesized that these alleles would predict the outcome of nicotine patch therapy for smoking cessation. In 1991-93, we performed a randomized controlled trial of the nicotine patch on 1686 heavy smokers (> or = 15 cigarettes/day). In 1999-2000, we contacted 1532 of the 1612 subjects still available; 767 (50%) completed a questionnaire and gave a blood sample. In the 755 cases in which DNA was successfully genotyped, we examined associations between the polymorphisms in DRD2 and DBH, and smoking cessation. At 1 week, the patch was more effective for smokers with DRD2 CT/TT genotype [patch/placebo odds ratio (OR) 2.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.7-4.6] than with CC (OR 1.4, 0.9-2.1; P for difference in ORs 0.04). Smokers with both DRD2 CT/TT and DBH GA/AA genotypes had an OR of 3.6 (2.0-6.5) compared to 1.4 (1.0-2.1) for others (P = 0.01). At 12 weeks, the ORs for these genotypic groups were 3.6 (1.7-7.8) and 1.4 (0.9-2.3), respectively (P = 0.04). There was no association between patch effectiveness and DRD2 exon 8. Short-term effectiveness of the nicotine patch may be related to dopamine beta-hydroxylase and dopamine D2 receptor genotype. Our results support the need for further investigation into personalized therapies for smoking cessation based on individual genotype.